# Trump's Republican primary campaign **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 3, 2015, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828 "2015-09-03T18:00:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 24
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2015, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/461 "2015-11-13T16:05:11Z")
I disagree [ETA: I disagree with BobLibDem]. Trump’s popularity has already peaked, as evinced by every poll taken in past few months. Comparing Ben Carson to a child molester was beyond the pale, and I see it as a sign that Trump is beginning to circle the bowl. ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2015, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/462 "2015-11-13T16:09:25Z")
My prediction is that Trump is going to continue to wane, and by next spring he’ll be on the also-ran platform next to Jeb! ( :rolleyes: ) and Bobby Jindal. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2015, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/463 "2015-11-13T16:56:50Z")
> [@dude77](#): > > beginning of the end over what ? hurt feelings ? lol … this is exactly trump’s appeal … he doesn’t give a s== and says what’s on his mind … short of saying he rapes babies, his support won’t go down … the only way I see them going down is through a massive propaganda attack on both of them which is obviously possible One thing I’ve been saying since sometime in the 2012 cycle is that whatever the GOP base wants in policy terms, they still want someone who can plausibly play a President on TV. I think this meltdown undercuts the notion that Trump can do that. And if I were Mike Murphy of Right to Rise (Jeb’s super-PAC), I’d make sure that no voter in Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina can turn on the TV this weekend without seeing that clip. Nobody wants to be embarrassed by the candidate they support. > [@BobLibDem](#): > > Now he’s taken aim at that professional autobiographer, Ben Carson. You might think that isn’t too smart, considering Carson’s popularity. But I think Trump is one step ahead, he can see that Carson’s luster is going to evaporate very quickly and that he is going to wilt in the spotlight. As these base voters abandon Carson, they just might gravitate to the one that opened up their eyes, Trump. I see Trump as taking a calculated risk and that when more and more about Carson is known, the base voters will leave in droves. The problem with this theory is that you’d have to send yourself back in time to before the 10/28 CNBC debate to be the one who opened up their eyes about Carson. His support had clearly taken a middling hit after that debate, judging by the national and Iowa polls taken during the following week. Jumping on Carson now is jumping on a rolling train. And jumping on Carson in this sort of way makes Trump look bad, not Carson. FWIW, I’m not one of those people who’ve been predicting that Trump would fizzle - quite the opposite. And being of the ‘confusion to my enemies’ school, I’ve been delighted to see his support hold up for so long, and hope it continues to do so. But meltdowns never look good. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2015, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/464 "2015-11-13T17:01:23Z")
Trump is pretty smart and knows how to use the news cycle. That speech last night led to stories today, on a Friday so it won’t really last to Monday probably. Except that now on Sunday you’re going to have Ben Carson trying to defend himself against Trump, or come out and complain about being compared to child molestors, whatever. So on Monday and into the front part of the week, we’re now talking about Carson’s reactions and we’ve moved on from whatever Trump did last night. ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2015, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/465 "2015-11-13T17:33:10Z")
> [@GrandWino](#): > > Trump is pretty smart and knows how to use the news cycle. That speech last night led to stories today, on a Friday so it won’t really last to Monday probably. Except that now on Sunday you’re going to have Ben Carson trying to defend himself against Trump, or come out and complain about being compared to child molestors, whatever. So on Monday and into the front part of the week, we’re now talking about Carson’s reactions and we’ve moved on from whatever Trump did last night. So far, Carson is taking the high road. His response was “Pray for him” (meaning Trump), and his campaign manager said the meltdown was “sad to watch.” If Carson comes out of this looking like a classy guy who can brush off insults from morons, then what we’ll be talking about on Monday is whether Trump is circling the drain, or has already gone down it. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Lowry](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Sam\_Lowry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Lowry)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2015, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/466 "2015-11-13T17:56:15Z")
> [@Diceman](#): > > So far, Carson is taking the high road. His response was “Pray for him” (meaning Trump), and his campaign manager said the meltdown was “sad to watch.” If Carson comes out of this looking like a classy guy who can brush off insults from morons, then what we’ll be talking about on Monday is whether Trump is circling the drain, or has already gone down it. Yeah, that was a smart response by Carson, and I’ve seen a few conservative people I know link to headlines about that on Facebook. Also, Trump and Carson both have new books, and [Trump’s is one spot below Carson’s on the New York Times best-selling list.](http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/donald-trumps-new-book-to-debut-behind-ben-carsons-on-new-yo#.xsnqLj5m97) I’m fairly certain that Trump will try to attack Carson relating to this, and why would people want his stupid book when they could read Trump’s book which is the greatest ever, and he’ll sound like a sore loser instead of the confident straight shooter that his supporters like. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2015, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/467 "2015-11-13T18:30:40Z")
How many times have we thought Trump dug his own grave this election season? The talk about the Mexican border crossers being racist was supposed to doom him. Ditto the comment about John McCain. The Teflon coating has worked so far, I don’t see why it won’t keep working. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2015, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/468 "2015-11-13T18:38:37Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > How many times have we thought Trump dug his own grave this election season? In my case, zero, until today. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2015, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/469 "2015-11-13T18:51:33Z")
I’ve thought he’s guaranteed his non-electability several times, including this one, but never his non-nominatability, even now. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2015, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/470 "2015-11-13T19:37:04Z")
Well, they’re testing the waters, see how popular a “Law and order” theme will be, so maybe they can run on protecting America from the Black Panthers. Wait, no, those other guys, ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2015, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/471 "2015-11-13T20:15:18Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > How many times have we thought Trump dug his own grave this election season? The talk about the Mexican border crossers being racist was supposed to doom him. Ditto the comment about John McCain. The Teflon coating has worked so far, I don’t see why it won’t keep working. Trump doesn’t have any kind of “teflon coating.” What he does have is enough money to make sure the media will hand him a microphone, no matter how offensive his conduct becomes. Trump’s popularity peaked a couple months ago, and has been steadily declining since. He appeals to a certain subgroup, but Republicans as a whole are realizing that his conduct would only be considered “presidential” on Bizarro World. He’s ratcheting the noise up to 11 because he sees the tides shifting away from him. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2015, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/472 "2015-11-13T21:08:10Z")
> [@Diceman](#): > > Trump’s popularity peaked a couple months ago, and has been steadily declining since. He was up around 30% before the second GOP debate, then took a hit that dropped him into the low 20s, but he’s been in the mid-20s pretty much ever since. It’s hard to see that as a steady decline. RCP graph [here](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html). ---
**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2015, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/473 "2015-11-14T00:54:04Z")
I hear Trump made a repugnant tweet during the siege in France. He may have deleted it already, I can’t find it. But if it’s true, his goose may be cooked. ---
**Author:** ![drad\_dog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@drad\_dog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drad_dog)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2015, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/474 "2015-11-14T01:21:12Z")
> [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](#): > > i hear trump made a repugnant tweet during the siege in france. He may have deleted it already, i can’t find it. But if it’s true, his goose may be cooked. ? 1938? ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2015, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/475 "2015-11-14T01:26:57Z")
> [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](#): > > I hear Trump made a repugnant tweet during the siege in France. He may have deleted it already, I can’t find it. But if it’s true, his goose may be cooked. It was from like a year ago at least. A French diplomat replied to an old tweet. He’s been tweeting condolences and support tonight. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2015, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/476 "2015-11-14T04:29:59Z")
[Portrait of Trump: a photo-mosaic](http://dangerousminds.net/comments/donald_trump_portrait_made_from_500_pictures_of_dicks_nsfw-ish) composed of 500, uh, _thingies_. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2015, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/477 "2015-11-14T04:37:06Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Dayum. Attacking the voters of Iowa is certainly a fresh primary-campaign strategy. Let’s see how that works out for him. ---
**Author:** ![Starving\_Artist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@Starving\_Artist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Starving_Artist)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2015, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/478 "2015-11-14T21:34:35Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > He was up around 30% before the second GOP debate, then took a hit that dropped him into the low 20s, but he’s been in the mid-20s pretty much ever since. It’s hard to see that as a steady decline. > > RCP graph [here](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html). Between his SNL appearance and the last debate Trump’s ratings among likely Republican voters surged to 42% in the latest Reuters/Ipsos five-day rolling poll. > [@](#): > > After a week in which he hosted Saturday Night Live and stood center-stage at a Republican debate, Donald Trump is surging among Republicans likely to cast votes in the party’s presidential primary. > > According to the five-day rolling Reuters/Ipsos presidential poll, Trump has leapt some 17 percentage points among likely Republican voters since Nov. 6, when he was essentially tied with Ben Carson at about 25 percent. Trump now captures 42 percent of those voters [Cite](http://news.yahoo.com/trump-surges-among-likely-republican-primary-voters-reuters-213521679.html) I doubt his calling Carson a pathological liar is going to hurt him in the polls, so for now it looks like Trump has achieved a considerable gain in a very short time. Since Carson’s numbers have fallen only a little I imagine the increase comes mostly from voters who’ve begun to abandon other Republican candidates who are clearly going nowhere. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2015, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/479 "2015-11-14T23:37:35Z")
> [@Starving\_Artist](#): > > Between his SNL appearance and the last debate Trump’s ratings among likely Republican voters surged to 42% in the latest Reuters/Ipsos five-day rolling poll. You might want to take a look deeper than the article to the rolling poll results [here.](http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20150823-20151113/collapsed/false/spotlight/1) For one thing they are consistently showing Trump’s range higher than the average of major traditional polls. The author of that story compares apples to oranges. As of November 13 Trump was at 34%. The author references the top of the error bar like that’s the only meaningful number. He compares the average apple in the bag to the quality of the best orange in the bag. That analysis overall is slightly better than saying his talking microwave told him Trump was doing better… but only slightly. > [@](#): > > I doubt his calling Carson a pathological liar is going to hurt him in the polls, He’s attacked candidates and media before. This week was new. He called **voters** stupid. That’s ballsy. Insulting the people you need to sway to win is a unique strategy even for Trump. It didn’t even play well with his core supporters who attended the rally. Maybe he gets away with it… most Americans aren’t paying close attention yet. Most of the coverage is also highlighting other pieces. I wouldn’t just hand wave this away as not having the potential to be damaging, though. Is it too late to change the campaign slogan? “You’re stupid. Vote for Trump.” > [@](#): > > so for now it looks like Trump has achieved a considerable gain in a very short time. Aside from that gain appearing to be most a figment of bad analysis, that would make me leery if I supported a candidate and the move really appeared to be that big. There’s not much justification for a major swing. The debate didn’t have much in the way of striking differences from the past and wasn’t exceptional for ratings. The only big difference was an SNL appearance. That gets a lot of eyeball time among those not paying attention to the campaign yet. It doesn’t include his message though. For it to last those less enaged SNL viewers would have to like what they see once they start looking deeper. If confirmation bias makes you feel better though, feel free. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2015, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/480 "2015-11-15T00:40:12Z")
I’m not finding a link to the actual Reuters/Ipsos poll anywhere, just to stories about it. I’d like to see its history, to see what that 42% compares back to. By itself, it’s hard to tell what it really means. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828.md?page=23) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828.md?page=25)