# Trump's Republican primary campaign **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 3, 2015, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828 "2015-09-03T18:00:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 28
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2015, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/541 "2015-11-23T21:10:20Z")
From [Talking Point Memo’s Josh Marshall:](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/wisdom-from-josh) > [@](#): > > Next time Donald Trump says something outrageous, offensive, ridiculous or demonstrably unconstitutional and you find yourself saying he’s now going to decline in the polls, let me help. No. That’s not going to happen. > > Some people seem to be having a hard time detecting this pattern. ---
**Author:** ![Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2015, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/542 "2015-11-23T21:53:26Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Trump did double down, so much for Trump not being on board with registration, but he is jumping to the dark side with gusto. > > [Donald Trump: I'll bring back waterboarding to stop the Syrian refugee 'Trojan Horse'](http://www.rawstory.com/2015/11/donald-trump-ill-bring-back-waterboarding-to-stop-the-syrian-refugee-trojan-horse/) To be clear, Trump should have answered, especially the second time around, with a resounding “no, no Muslim registration.” But actually, he answered that we should have a database of the refugees. Well, doesn’t ICE have that anyway? ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2015, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/543 "2015-11-23T22:04:33Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > I suppose he could solve the problem by totally rebuking…denounce, renounce, and condemn…that other guy who’s idea it _was_! Haven’t seen anything like that yet, have you? No. I don’t understand what your point is. Trump’s entire strategy seems to be capturing maximal media attention with minimal content originating from him. He has been spouting vague, racist, xenophobic nonsense since he arrived on the political scene, and this is no different. Someone else suggests a terrible idea to him, and rather than embracing or condemning it, he is just vague enough that his supporters can embrace his thinly coded racism, and his opponent can praise themselves for talking about how vile he is. He seems to be embracing “there’s no such thing as bad publicity” as a marketing strategy. The man is vile, but I think his vileness is his willingness to support (and foment) Americans’ xenophobia, not that he actually proposes or stands for much of anything. He is clearly not someone who believes in the fundamental equality of human beings, or even American human beings, and I think American civil liberties are in danger just by the fact that \>10% of our voting electorate seems to be taking him seriously. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/544 "2015-11-24T03:13:23Z")
I guarantee you Trump did not hurt his standing in the GOP electorate by his latest stunt, [endorsing](http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/22/politics/donald-trump-black-lives-matter-protester-confrontation/) the “roughing up” of a BLM protester. There is a huge swath of the GOP electorate that is going to eat that up like catnip. ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 5:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/546 "2015-11-24T05:11:42Z")
(Cross posted to the SRIOTD thread) Donald Trump has “the world’s greatest memory. It’s one thing everyone agrees on.” Cite: Donald Trump. ( [Amid Latest Controversy, Trump Claims 'World's Greatest Memory'](http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/amid-latest-controversy-trump-claims-worlds-greatest-memory-n468621)) He said this in defense of his (ahem) disputed claim that thousands of Muslims in New Jersey celebrated on 9/11. He also said that he would reintroduce waterboarding “and more” against ISIS because “only a stupid person would say it doesn’t work” and “even if it doesn’t work, they deserve it anyway for what they’re doing.” Ladies and gentlemen, the next Republican nominee for President of the United fucking States. ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 5:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/547 "2015-11-24T05:18:53Z")
BTW, that article also quotes some Trump supporters who were asked about Trump’s habit of making shit up on the fly. His supporters do not care. They. Do. Not. Care. They even find it amusing that he likes to “bend the truth”. Its OK because he will make America great again and because the real liars are the politicians in Washington. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/548 "2015-11-24T05:34:37Z")
> [@Lawrence\_Newman](#): > > I am extremely concerned with the groundswell of support for Trump as president. It almost seems like some joke on a t.v. show. I understand and respect his business acumen, but the way the media is treating his candidacy as a farce is dangerous for the future stability of the U.S. > [@Bayard](#): > > He also said that he would reintroduce waterboarding “and more” against ISIS because “only a stupid person would say it doesn’t work” and “even if it doesn’t work, they deserve it anyway for what they’re doing.” > > Ladies and gentlemen, the next Republican nominee for President of the United fucking States. As Nate Silver points out, please do not freak out yet about Donald Trump’s polls. > **[Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/)** > > Lately, pundits and punters seem bullish on Donald Trump, whose chances of winning the Republican presidential nomination recently inched above 20 percent for t… > [@](#): > > Quite often, however, the Trump’s-really-got-a-chance! case is rooted almost entirely in polls. If nothing Trump has said so far has harmed his standing with Republicans, the argument goes, why should we expect him to fade later on? > > One problem with this is that it’s not enough for Trump to merely avoid fading. **Right now, he has 25 to 30 percent of the vote in polls among the roughly 25 percent of Americans who identify as Republican. (That’s something like 6 to 8 percent of the electorate overall, or about the same share of people who think the Apollo moon landings were faked.)** As the rest of the field consolidates around him, Trump will need to gain additional support to win the nomination. That might not be easy, since some Trump actions that appeal to a faction of the Republican electorate may alienate the rest of it. Trump’s favorability ratings are middling among Republicans (and awful among the broader electorate). ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 6:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/549 "2015-11-24T06:12:45Z")
I believe Trump has no chance of becoming president. But of becoming the nominee? Yes, I think he does. Early on, I bought the notion that he had a pretty hard and pretty low ceiling. But I have seen polling since then on the question of “which candidates would you absolutely not be willing to support?” and Trump does quite well in those. His ceiling is a lot higher among the GOP electorate than many people think. (BTW, the candidates who have the highest numbers of “absolutely will not support” are IIRC Bush, Pataki, and Graham, with Jeb’s the very highest–which is just such a devastating number for the guy so many people thought was the frontrunner.) ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 9:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/550 "2015-11-24T09:36:38Z")
> [@Lawrence\_Newman](#): > > I am extremely concerned with the groundswell of support for Trump as president. It almost seems like some joke on a t.v. show. I understand and respect his business acumen, but the way the media is treating his candidacy as a farce is dangerous for the future stability of the U.S. I don’t understand your concern. I agree that the strong support for Trump says something bad about a large portion of Americans, but Trump isn’t the cause of these bad attitudes. _ **I view the success of the Trump candidacy as a good thing because it puts the spirit underlying much of America’s right-wing strongly on display for all to see and be disgusted.** _ I don’t understand what you mean about “treating his candidacy as a farce is dangerous.” Do you think the media should take him seriously, and pretend that his “ideas” are serious? I might agree with you, but probably not for the same reason. Next November, the nation will be faced with a choice between Hillary and probably one of {Rubio, Cruz, Romney}. The choice will be between (a) someone who will continue to sell out the American people to Wall St., but asking for a little bit in return – better healthcare, higher minimum wages; and (b) someone who will let Wall St. steal as much as they can, trying to continue America’s transformation into a society with a stark divide between Haves and Have Nots. I think (a) is the better option; and believe that the coming election is VERY important. It’s the GOP’s last big chance to take the White House. If they succeed, they will seek to entrench their power permanently. If they fail, the U.S. may begin a crawl back toward sanity and humane values. I hope that continued Trump success will weaken the eventual GOP nominee; therefore I regard Trump’s popularity as a very good thing. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 10:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/551 "2015-11-24T10:04:21Z")
Romney? How do you see that playing out? Even in a brokered convention, I can’t see the delegates agreeing on him. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/552 "2015-11-24T15:38:43Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > Romney? How do you see that playing out? Even in a brokered convention, I can’t see the delegates agreeing on him. Perhaps he meant Bush, not Romney. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/553 "2015-11-24T16:37:52Z")
> [@Derleth](#): > > For those playing along at home: This is Nate Silver Stage-O-Doom 4: Winnowing. I’d feel a lot more comfortable about this if Carson wasn’t in the number two slot. Both feed off the same whack-a-doodle outsider constituency and together they make up around 50% of the vote. So Its not clear that Trump won’t pick enough of the votes freed up by the winnowing to keep his lead > [@DerekMichaels00](#): > > It’s so sad someone with Trump’s talent has to appeal to people who can’t see past simpleton rhetoric of “dey tooker jabbs.” . I wish that “Dey tooker jabbs.” was the worst that Trump was saying. That would just be garden variety Republican boilerplate complaiing about lazy immigrants stuffing 15 people into a two bedroom apartment and feeding off welfare. Trump is going beyond that by saying suggesting that immigrants are evil people who are actively setting out to do us harm. The next step is to claim “They are coming after your daughters”. Trumps rhetoric has gone beyond the sort that I can just roll my eyes at and into an area where I am seriously concerned that someone is going to get lynched. > [@wevets](#): > > This is pretty horrifying to me, but will it actually even dent his primary polling numbers? I doubt it. It’ll probably get blamed on an “intern.” I doubt he’ll even need to do that. At this point Trump is beyond the reach of fact checkers. Who are you going to believe a wildly successful businessman who tells it like it is or the lying Liberal Media? ---
**Author:** ![Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/554 "2015-11-24T16:49:03Z")
You can count Romney out. He’s said so multiple times now. I think 2012 just wiped him out. I think Trump has a better chance of failing if the media takes him seriously. Treating him and his campaign like a circus has only given cause to defend him, even by those who probably don’t want to be defending Donald Trump. I still don’t believe he has nearly as many true supporters as the polling would lead us to believe. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/555 "2015-11-24T16:59:48Z")
Romney would only take the nomination if it was offered at a brokered convention. For what it’s worth, I think most major Republicans would accept such a draft. A 3-4 month sprint to a general election is not much of a hardship. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/556 "2015-11-24T17:05:21Z")
Positive boon, actually. Less time to get stale, unexciting, less time for the candidate to step on his dick. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/557 "2015-11-24T17:14:52Z")
> [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](#): > > I still don’t believe he has nearly as many true supporters as the polling would lead us to believe. It could get very entertaining if there is a yuge gap between his poll numbers and his standings in the first round or two of actual voting. I wouldn’t put it past him to accuse the GOP party bosses of putting the fix in, at which point there won’t be enough popcorn on earth to accompany the resulting fireworks. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/558 "2015-11-24T17:21:16Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > Romney? How do you see that playing out? Even in a brokered convention, I can’t see the delegates agreeing on him. Almost every single one of the 17 clowns on-stage are unacceptable to those with a modicum of sanity. Jeb! has demonstrated, despite the exclamation mark, total lack of charisma. Cruz is in 3rd place of likelihood now, but I find the notion of his Presidency too frightening to countenace. Kasich is the best of the lot, but is ruled out by his failure to catch fire. That leaves the callow Marco Rubio. I’m sure he’s most likely by far, especially since he’s a darling of the Koch Brothers, but there’s always a chance he’ll flame-out. By process of elimination, the GOP may give up on all 17 of the clowns and draft an old warhorse for the run. Enter Mitt Romney. (I’m no Romney fan, but if it has to be a GOP President he’s more stomachable than any of the 17 Clowns.) ---
**Author:** ![Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/559 "2015-11-24T17:39:46Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > That leaves the callow Marco Rubio. I’m sure he’s most likely by far, especially since he’s a darling of the Koch Brothers, but there’s always a chance he’ll flame-out. This is all you need to say. In the case of a brokered convention the delegates will go where the money leads them. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/560 "2015-11-24T21:20:45Z")
If it comes down to a brokered convention with Trump among the top contenders then I think Trump will go ahead and run as an independent, taking his supporters with him, and letting Clinton cruise to victory at a walk. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/561 "2015-11-24T22:42:24Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Almost every single one of the 17 clowns on-stage are unacceptable to those with a modicum of sanity. Jeb! has demonstrated, despite the exclamation mark, total lack of charisma. Cruz is in 3rd place of likelihood now, but I find the notion of his Presidency too frightening to countenace. Kasich is the best of the lot, but is ruled out by his failure to catch fire. > > That leaves the callow Marco Rubio. I’m sure he’s most likely by far, especially since he’s a darling of the Koch Brothers, but there’s always a chance he’ll flame-out. > > By process of elimination, the GOP may give up on all 17 of the clowns and draft an old warhorse for the run. Enter Mitt Romney. (I’m no Romney fan, but if it has to be a GOP President he’s more stomachable than any of the 17 Clowns.) The right’s political calculus gives very little weight to the left’s approval. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828.md?page=27) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828.md?page=29)