# Trump's Republican primary campaign **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 3, 2015, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828 "2015-09-03T18:00:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2015, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/41 "2015-09-05T21:13:03Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > [SurveyUSA Election Poll #22490](http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d950cadf-05ce-4148-a125-35c0cdab26c6) > > - Trump 45%, Clinton 40%. > - Trump 44%, Sanders 40% > - Trump 44%, Biden 42% > - Trump 44%, Gore 41% And SurveyUSA, in Trump v. Hillary\*, shows Trump losing Blacks by only 59-25, Hispanics by only 50-31, and in a statistical tie for Asians, winning them 41-39. And I am the Tsar of all the Russias. \*The numbers don’t differ appreciably in Trump v. the other Dem candidates. So it’s not a Hillary thing. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2015, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/42 "2015-09-05T21:51:29Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Yes, they really should have cleaned that up, combining all those and “lie” and “Lie” into one. But wow - Alabama voters \*[really\*](http://gravismarketing.com/gravis/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/clinton.png) don’t like Clinton, eh? Darn the luck. Alabama was a _total_ lock for the Democrats up until Trump came along. ---
**Author:** ![Starving\_Artist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@Starving\_Artist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Starving_Artist)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2015, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/43 "2015-09-05T22:00:40Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Trump will never make it. Sooner or later, he will shoot his mouth off the wrong way. Probably sooner, but he’s got a long time. The punditti thought it would be much sooner, and they were wrong. Donald Trump might defeat all his enemies except Donald Trump. What you’re missing, dear **luci** , is that most people in this country don’t give a shit if Trump says something considered impolitic or politically incorrect in the eyes of the nation’s eliteospere. People are fed up with that shit and are much more concerned with whether a candidate seems to be someone who knows what to do and how to make things happen than they are about whether his insults to Rosie O’Donnell constitute some kind of ‘war on women’.:rolleyes: This country’s got major problems that need to be addressed by someone capable of dealing with them and Trump is the only person on the horizon who appears to be anything but yet another focus-grouped, talking point, do-nothing politician of the sort who’s more mindful of the sympathies of lawbreakers and concerned about making sure they use the proper pronoun when referring to Bruce/Caitlin Jenner. The news and entertainment media have succeeded in making politically correct issues seem like the most pressing and important issues of our time. They’ve also succeeded in making it look like everyone but a small group of wackos is in complete lockstep with them. Now they’re finding out how fed up people really are with the state of affairs in this country and they’re incredulous as to how little of a shit everyone gives about their sacred cows, so they continue to anticipate that Trump will say something that will finally cause the masses to rise up in politically correct indignation and demand the end of his candidacy. And it ain’t gonna friggin’ happen! I hope (and by that I mean **HOPE** ) that Trump’s candidacy is a wake up call for politicians on both sides of the aisle that people are hugely unhappy with the way this country is being run and that a huge sea change is about to occur in American politics, a sea change that will indeed “Make America Great Again”! ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2015, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/44 "2015-09-05T22:12:10Z")
I was a bit uncertain before. Now, all doubt is dispelled, all uncertainty gone: the cat is dead. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2015, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/45 "2015-09-05T22:25:54Z")
Trumps challenge is to stay on top through the early primaries make some serious gains there. If he can’t take the most votes in Iowa or New Hampshire he’ll fade very quickly. He doesn’t necessarily get there even with his best efforts. Being different is difficult to do over the long term. Despite his current popularity a lot of his polling numbers reflect undecideds and none of the aboves. He needs primary wins to lock in those voters and draw new ones. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2015, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/46 "2015-09-05T22:29:27Z")
> [@Starving\_Artist](#): > > I hope (and by that I mean **HOPE** ) that Trump’s candidacy is a wake up call for politicians on both sides of the aisle that people are hugely unhappy with the way this country is being run and that a huge sea change is about to occur in American politics, a sea change that will indeed “Make America Great Again”! Hopefully most of us will realize that the right path does not involve succumbing to tribalism and racism and that solutions that are impossible and/or just plain stupid are not the hallmarks of the leadership that is needed. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2015, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/47 "2015-09-05T23:04:04Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > [SurveyUSA Election Poll #22490](http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d950cadf-05ce-4148-a125-35c0cdab26c6) > > - Trump 45%, Clinton 40%. > - Trump 44%, Sanders 40% > - Trump 44%, Biden 42% > - Trump 44%, Gore 41% Im sure this is a hijack, but the poll methodology includes something I haven’t seen before: “espondents reachable on a home telephone (62% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home (landline) telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. **Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (38% of registered voters) were shown a question on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.**” ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2015, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/48 "2015-09-05T23:04:33Z")
He will raise taxes on the rich and the greedfully employed. That is good. He plans to use the money to build a wall from Corpus Christi to San Diego. This is batshit. One out of ten, would not elect. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2015, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/49 "2015-09-05T23:06:37Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > …in the recorded voice of a professional announcer… “In a world where a raving wad of hair…” ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2015, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/50 "2015-09-05T23:08:34Z")
> [@The Great Sun Jester](#): > > For all the bluster that is US politics, there is an underlying and hypnotic lullaby that calms the masses even as it divides and agitates them. It turns us on one another, and diverts our attention from our real and common enemies. Very nefarious. > > I find the man to be a complete gasbag. An offensive and unrefined oaf whose presence in the Whitehouse will cost the US dearly in terms of international respect. But then, life shows us that respect ends where someone else’s needs begin. [insert Machiavelli rant here] It would be an ugly and painful process but I think in the bigger picture Trump could actually make the USA stronger and more unified. Despite him being him. The spell needs to be broken and he could do it. I honestly think he has a good grasp of the frustration felt by everyday people and that is what he’s touching. It’s not that his supporters are racist woman-haters (which he certainly appeals to), it’s that, whatever your personal tendencies are, he is slapping The Establishment in the face with a large, fetid trout. And that amuses us all. > > Sanders is a similar thing but has a different approach. He appeals to intellect. This is why Trump will beat him. Oh, for fucks sake. Stop using going against the establishment as a thought ending cliche. Even if you loathe the establishment, going against it is not inherently good. What matters is _ **HOW** _ you go against the establishment. He could walk into office and pardon every criminal in existence. That would be anti-establishment. It would also be absolutely horrible. And it’s not like we don’t already have an idea of what Trump wants to do. He is fucking racist. He wants to build a wall and bankrupt us. He wants to challenge the fuck out of Putin. And that’s just what he’s said that I’ve paid attention to. Then we have who he is and how he reacts. He cannot take criticism, and instead attacks back, going bigger and bigger. And you want this guy in charge of our military? And we have testimonial after testimonial of people who know him saying that he is exactly the same person he is in public. So this isn’t some publicity stunt to get him the office. He really does believe everything he says. The problem with Trump is not that the international community would dislike the U.S. The problem with Trump is that his own policies are actually, without hyperbole, things that could destroy the country. (Heck, if he pisses off Russia–the world. One Putin is as many as the world can handle. Two, and you get a feedback loop.) Trump wouldn’t make America strong, and you don’t even give a way that he could. You just use “anti-establishment” as a magic wand that will somehow fix all of the problems. Having a narcissist with a temper problem who thinks there are stupidly simple solutions to real problems in charge of the country is not just something that would cause us to lose face. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2015, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/51 "2015-09-06T00:07:39Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > Oh, for fucks sake. Stop using going against the establishment as a thought ending cliche. … But at this point in the cycle that is all that matters. IMHO, people who are bothering to participate in polls right now (which it is becoming clear are not necessarily or even likely a representative of the general voting population group) are wanting to send a low cost message that they are not happy with the status quo … they are not actually voting for anyone now and they are assured by all the pundits that he’ll never actually win. Right now a whole bunch of people are essentially doing the same as those who go into the both complaining “You know what I really want to vote? None of the above! That’s what!” But who of course end up voting for someone who they think will be the least poor choice. Or stay home. The sole feature that matters is that the candidate is against the status quo and the more otherwise “out there” the better. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2015, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/52 "2015-09-06T00:12:32Z")
> [@Lobohan](#): > > Well, there is the fact that the Dems are largely for sane and correct policy. Whereas the guys slapping the GOP are for the ejection of 11 million people from the country, climate change denialism, starting a needless war with Iran, repealing the ACA and putting millions of people without health care, and economic policies that have been proven wrong by decades of GOP enactment. What a terribly incomplete list! 😉 You forgot unconditional anti-abortion, pushing mass incarceration policies (Republicans are directly and virtually single-handedly responsible for the fact that 1 in 3 black male babies born today will end up in prison), trashing the environment, rejecting Medicaid expansion in every state that they control, widening the gap between the rich and poor, and several thousand more policies just like them. Is it overly hyperbolic to say that every incredibly stupid thing that the government has ever done has been done by a Republican? Maybe, but not by much. ---
**Author:** ![Flyer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/flyer/32/7298_2.png) [@Flyer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Flyer)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2015, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/53 "2015-09-06T02:49:13Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Latest: > > [Alabama](http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-alabama-polling-republican-primary/) - Trump, at 38%, polls as well as _all_ other Republican primary candidates combined. And Carson is still in second place. Even if Trump imploded completely tomorrow, most of his support would have to go to just 1 or 2 candidates to knock Carson down. Between Trump, Carson, and Fiorina, the anti-Establishment candidates take a solid majority. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2015, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/54 "2015-09-06T03:30:18Z")
Trump’s poll numbers remind me of Buchanan in 1996. Yes, he can get 25-30% of the GOP primary voters, but in the end, that is his top number. His supporters are enthusiastic, but he cannot get others on his side. So when there are 7 or 8 (or 16) candidates in the race, he is the frontrunner. When the field winnows down, then we will see Trump staying at 25-30% and the establishment choice (whether that be Jeb, Walker, Kasich, Rubio, etc) get the nod. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2015, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/55 "2015-09-06T03:43:33Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > Trump’s poll numbers remind me of Buchanan in 1996. Yes, he can get 25-30% of the GOP primary voters, but in the end, that is his top number. His supporters are enthusiastic, but he cannot get others on his side. So when there are 7 or 8 (or 16) candidates in the race, he is the frontrunner. When the field winnows down, then we will see Trump staying at 25-30% and the establishment choice (whether that be Jeb, Walker, Kasich, Rubio, etc) get the nod. [http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/cnn-donald-trump-leads-august](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/cnn-donald-trump-leads-august) The poll found Trump had 24 percent of support among registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. In addition, he also led his GOP rivals as the **second choice of those voters with 14 percent**. As you see, yes, he _can_ get others on his side. Just among those first+second choice it is 38% - and that’s 2 weeks ago, it should be higher now. You think for some reason that people who answer polls that they would vote for Carson, or Fiorina (the two other front runners now) or Cruz etc - will definitely not vote for Trump if their candidate drops out. How exactly do you know that? ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2015, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/56 "2015-09-06T03:50:16Z")
And here is another analysis that shows that the claim that Trump tops out at 25-30% and if the field narrows his numbers will stay the same is utter bunk: > **[Ranked Choice Polling Shows Trump's Support Is Even Stronger Than You Think](https://ivn.us/2015/09/02/ranked-choice-polling-shows-trumps-support-even-stronger-think)** > > After a fiery first Republican Presidential Debate on August 6, the GOP primary field has continued to shift and change, leaving many pollsters struggling to catch up. To the surprise of many observer In New Hampshire, Trump is the leading second-choice option among the supporters of almost every establishment candidate including Jeb Bush and John Kasich. Trump earns the second-choices of 19% of Jeb Bush supporters, easily beating more moderate candidates like Kasich (9%), Walker (6%), and Rubio (1%). This trend continues among John Kasich supporters, 16% of whom would chose Trump second, ahead of all the other candidates. Among other establishment candidates, Trump only narrowly trails Jeb Bush as the most popular second choice. Twenty-four percent (24%) of Rubio supporters listed Jeb Bush as their second-choice, compared to the 22% who listed Trump as their second-choice. Trump also earns a sizable 20% second-choice support from Scott Walker, just 1% behind Marco Rubio and Fiorina. … Capturing and showing this more specific second-choice data reveals the true breadth of Trump’s support beyond his first-choice base. When pollsters take advantage of this method, the data offers a timely and unique ability to estimate which candidates will rise and fall as the primary season continues and the field inevitably narrows. Trump’s substantial second-choice support among a wide range of establishment and anti-establishment candidates could foreshadow a growth rather than a reduction in his popularity throughout the fall. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2015, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/57 "2015-09-06T03:55:42Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > What a terribly incomplete list! 😉 Logohan seems to have weighted accuracy over “completeness.” 😛 > [@](#): > > You forgot unconditional anti-abortion, You might want to recheck the positions of Paul, Graham, Christie, Kasich, and Trump just off the to of my head. > [@](#): > > pushing mass incarceration policies (Republicans are directly and virtually single-handedly responsible for the fact that 1 in 3 black male babies born today will end up in prison), [Republicans like Bill Clinton?](http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/clinton-admits-his-crime-bill-made-mass-incarceration-worse) > [@](#): > > rejecting Medicaid expansion in every state that they control, Ohio seceded? > [@](#): > > Is it overly hyperbolic to say that every incredibly stupid thing that the government has ever done has been done by a Republican? Yes. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2015, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/58 "2015-09-06T14:56:10Z")
> [@DinoR](#): > > You might want to recheck the positions of Paul, Graham, Christie, Kasich, and Trump just off the to of my head. You might want to [recheck it yourself](http://ballotpedia.org/2016_presidential_candidates_on_abortion). **Paul:** I thought Paul’s libertarianism might make him an exception to government meddling in personal matters, but no such luck. On his official website, Paul stated he “believes in the sanctity of life.” Paul continued, “Since Roe v. Wade decision, over 50 million children have been killed in abortion procedures. As President, I would strongly support legislation restricting federal courts from hearing cases like Roe v. Wade, in an effort to stop harming the lives of the unborn.” In 2014, Paul cosponsored S 946 - No Taxpayer Funding for Abortion Act to prohibit any taxpayer funding of abortions. **Graham:** Graham sponsored S 1670 - Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act, which sought to ban abortions after 20 weeks, except in cases of medical emergency, rape and incest … Calling America’s adoption of abortion a “radical policy” and comparing it to existing laws in countries like North Korea and the People’s Republic of China, Graham said legalizing abortion “was never chosen by the American people … **Christie:** “I am pro-life, I believe in exceptions [only] for rape, incest and the life of the mother” **Kasich:** Opposes abortion and refers to himself as “pro-life.” Kasich received consistent ratings of 100 percent from the National Right to Life Committee during his tenure in Congress. \*\* Trump:\*\* “I am pro-life” – Trump described his change to anti-abortion views in a 2011 interview. You might want to [read this article](http://www.buzzfeed.com/emaoconnor/republican-candidates-on-abortion#.ocR1zxPY1) on how much Republicans oppose abortion. During the first debate, they were falling all over themselves trying to outdo each other in showing just how vehemently they oppose it. > [@DinoR](#): > > Republicans like Bill Clinton? So the _Democrats_ are responsible for today’s mass incarceration, is that your point? Better check your history. Following the social upheaval of the 60s and the crime and rioting of the 70s, it was _Republicans_ who pushed the hardline “law and order” agenda that directly got things to where they are today. > [@DinoR](#): > > Ohio seceded? Nope, still a state AFAIK. But did you know that Ohio’s Republican legislature completely gutted Medicaid expansion from the state budget, and Ohio joined the program only after Kasich did an end-run around the legislature, which has now become a huge liability for him and [he’s being widely denigrated for it](http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/08/23/john-kasichs-obamacare-medicaid-expansion-slammed-at-ohio-afp-event/). It only happened because of a strange case of his religious wingnuttery winning out over his Republican wingnuttery. I should have said, more accurately, that the last time I checked every state that had rejected Medicaid expansion either had a Republican governor and/or a Republican-controlled legislature. There is no doubt where the Republicans stand on the matter of health care for the poor. > [@DinoR](#): > > Yes. As I said, maybe, but not by much. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2015, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/59 "2015-09-06T15:30:14Z")
This is an [interesting point](http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/donald-trump-running-mate-mark-cuban-213123): In return, the geniuses behind this idea have now forced every other GOP contender to vow support for Trump if he wins the nomination ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2015, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/60 "2015-09-06T15:51:04Z")
More good news for the Draft Romney movement! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828.md?page=4)