# Trump's Republican primary campaign **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 3, 2015, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828 "2015-09-03T18:00:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2015, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/121 "2015-09-14T19:43:31Z")
Well I for one encourage Terr in this thinking, that voting is pointless, and support any efforts on his part to encourage as may others of his political ilk as possible to do likewise. šŸ˜ƒ ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2015, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/122 "2015-09-14T19:58:56Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > And Trump and Carson together are at 53%. Doesnā€™t leave much room for other candidates. I saw that poll and it is causing me to rethink my dismissal of the Trump candidacy. My thinking was that Trump was simply consolidating the angry nutball vote, while the more rational majority of the GOP was being splintered among 10 different alternatives, and that once the rational side got their act together an united behind one or two candidates Trump would be toast. However seeing that more than 50% of the Republican voters are lining up behind one of two nutballs, it is becoming clear that the semi-rational majority I assumed existed in the GOP is in actuality a minority. That will teach me once again the cold hard lesson that it is not possible to over estimate the incompetence of the average republican voter ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2015, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/123 "2015-09-14T20:01:21Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Once again, that ā€œsomber reflectionā€ or ā€œstrategic thinkingā€ requires at its basis the delusion of thinking that your vote may influence the primary. Granted, there are a lot of such delusional people, but most arenā€™t. > > Most people vote because either they like the candidate, they donā€™t care about the candidate but they hate the other candidate(s), or because they have been brainwashed by the concerted effort of the election propaganda that it is their duty. In either of the cases, it just equates to some kind of warm/fuzzy feeling. Or the reasonable belief that voting and talking about voting can influence others to vote, which can have a non-negligible chance at helping the preferred candidate win. And even a negligible chance is a non-zero chance ā€“ Iā€™m perfectly willing to spend a very small amount of time if it means a non-zero increase to the chances my preferred candidate will win. Non-zero is better than zero. ---
**Author:** ![Stoneburg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/df705f/32.png) [@Stoneburg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stoneburg)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2015, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/124 "2015-09-14T20:12:02Z")
> [@Dr.Drake](#): > > We did that in 2000 to get President Bush. Youā€™re welcome, but I hope you donā€™t mind if we donā€™t do it again? Great president, or the _greatest_ president? Amirite?! Ps. Colbert 2016!! ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2015, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/125 "2015-09-14T21:03:48Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > ā€¦ and I believe the latest poll shows Trumpā€™s national numbers in Republican primaries the highest yet: 33%. 13% ahead of the nearest competitior - Carson at 20%. > > And Trump and Carson together are at 53%. Doesnā€™t leave much room for other candidates. > > [Clinton's Support Drops by a Third as Trump, Carson Surge in GOP Race - ABC News](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clintons-support-drops-trump-carson-surge-gop-race/story?id=33695818) Yes, but the primaries arenā€™t just one election where the leader is the most likely to get the most votes and win. What actually happens is that first we have Iowa, where only the most dedicated partisans spend half the day caucusing. Trump is leading among voters who donā€™t usually vote. Itā€™s possible that Trump will bring new voters. Itā€™s also possible Trumpā€™s voters simply wonā€™t be there, especially in Iowa. Carson, on the other hand, has been building up support in Iowa the old fashioned way. His numbers are probably more solid in Iowa. If the caucuses were held today, I think heā€™d beat Trump. But as establishment candidates drop out, the 47% who prefer an establishment type will start to rally around one guy. This will probably occur after Iowa and NH, which means that we should see by then only 2-3 establishment candidates vs. 3 outsiders. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2015, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/126 "2015-09-15T00:38:08Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Trump is not an expert at domestic policy, foreign policy, or political infighting. What he is an expert at is having people feel warm&fuzzy toward him (no, definitely not all people, but an awful lot of them. Seriously? I would say almost NO ONE is voting for Trump for warm&fuzzies. Theyā€™re voting for Trump because Trump gives voice to their anger and their fear. Trump is the angry man leaning out the window and screaming, ā€œWeā€™re mad as hell and weā€™re not going to take it anymore!ā€ ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2015, 11:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/127 "2015-09-15T11:03:30Z")
> [@Zakalwe](#): > > Seriously? I would say almost NO ONE is voting for Trump for warm&fuzzies. Theyā€™re voting for Trump because Trump gives voice to their anger and their fear. Trump is the angry man leaning out the window and screaming, ā€œWeā€™re mad as hell and weā€™re not going to take it anymore!ā€ Youā€™re ignoring his long business and entertainment career. That was built on charisma, and not on anger/fear. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2015, 11:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/128 "2015-09-15T11:37:51Z")
I hate to rain on the Trump parade but- oh I take that back, I LOVE to rain on the Trump parade- you canā€™t escape mathematics. [In 2012](http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/), Obama beat Romney 51-47 among all voters and 71-27 among Hispanics. [This year,](http://www.politicususa.com/2015/09/12/clinton-trounces-trump-47-points-latino-voters-leads-53-40-voters.html) Clinton leads Trump 53-40 overall and 69-22 among Latinos. Biden does even better, leading Trump 56-38 overall and 71-20 among Latinos. There simply is no way that Trump could beat either Hillary or Biden, not when your campaign is based on bigotry against Latinos and you need some of their votes to win. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2015, 11:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/129 "2015-09-15T11:44:42Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > I hate to rain on the Trump parade but- oh I take that back, I LOVE to rain on the Trump parade- you canā€™t escape mathematics. [In 2012](http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/), Obama beat Romney 51-47 among all voters and 71-27 among Hispanics. > > [This year,](http://www.politicususa.com/2015/09/12/clinton-trounces-trump-47-points-latino-voters-leads-53-40-voters.html) Clinton leads Trump 53-40 overall and 69-22 among Latinos. Biden does even better, leading Trump 56-38 overall and 71-20 among Latinos. > > There simply is no way that Trump could beat either Hillary or Biden, not when your campaign is based on bigotry against Latinos and you need some of their votes to win. > **[Insider vs. Outsider Matchup Finds Clinton, Trump Near Even](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/insider-outsider-matchup-finds-clinton-trump/story?id=33689594)** > > Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump run essentially evenly among registered voters. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump run essentially evenly among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup for president in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, testament to the strength of party loyalty as well as to Trumpā€™s anti-establishment profile and anti-immigration views. \*\*The hypothetical contest stands at 46-43 percent, Clinton-Trump, a gap thatā€™s within the surveyā€™s margin of sampling error. \*\* Note: **registered voters**. You know, those that actually _can_ vote. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2015, 11:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/130 "2015-09-15T11:55:25Z")
To add a few more: > **[demsclinton.pdf](https://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/09/10/demsclinton.pdf)** > > 423.84 KB Clinton vs Trump: registered voters 48% to 48% - within margin of error > **[PPP\_Release\_National\_90315.pdf](https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/PPP_Release_National_90315.pdf)** > > 330.22 KB Clinton vs Trump: registered voters 46% to 44% - within margin of error [http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us08272015\_Ueg38d.pdf](http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us08272015_Ueg38d.pdf) Clinton vs Trump: registered voters 45% to 41% - within margin of error ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2015, 12:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/131 "2015-09-15T12:07:35Z")
PLEASE donā€™t nominate Trump, Brā€™er Fox! Weā€™re afraid to run against him! ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c57346/32.png) [@Little\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Pig)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2015, 12:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/132 "2015-09-15T12:19:51Z")
Oh, weā€™re just getting started. [U.S. ā€˜a dumping groundā€™ for the world.](http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-trump-dallas-rally-20150914-story.html) ---
**Author:** ![Bridget\_Burke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7cd45c/32.png) [@Bridget\_Burke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bridget_Burke)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2015, 12:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/133 "2015-09-15T12:52:05Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Youā€™re ignoring his long business and entertainment career. That was built on charisma, and not on anger/fear. Business? Heā€™s famous for bankruptcies. Entertainment? Heā€™s been a freak on Reality TV. Now heā€™s catching the attention of starving old white guysā€¦ ---
**Author:** ![Fenris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fenris/32/498_2.png) [@Fenris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fenris)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2015, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/134 "2015-09-15T13:23:22Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Youā€™re ignoring his long business and entertainment career. That was built on charisma, and not on anger/fear. A ā€œfreak showā€ isnā€™t ā€œcharismaā€. The reason people watched Trump is to watch the monkey with the toupee throw tantrums, mangle syntax, use incorrect words that he clearly didnā€™t understand and have melt downs. Itā€™s like watching a someone poke a retarded chimp with a stick 'till it gets mad and flings poo. Which, I suspect, is at least part of his popularity now. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2015, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/135 "2015-09-15T14:41:06Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Yes, but the primaries arenā€™t just one election where the leader is the most likely to get the most votes and win. What actually happens is that first we have Iowa, where only the most dedicated partisans spend half the day caucusing. Thatā€™s how it works on the Dem side. [On the GOP side](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses#Republican_Party_process), you come in, listen to a bit of speechifying, then vote and leave. > [@](#): > > Trump is leading among voters who donā€™t usually vote. Itā€™s possible that Trump will bring new voters. Itā€™s also possible Trumpā€™s voters simply wonā€™t be there, especially in Iowa. Carson, on the other hand, has been building up support in Iowa the old fashioned way. His numbers are probably more solid in Iowa. If the caucuses were held today, I think heā€™d beat Trump. Since the Iowa GOP caucuses donā€™t work the way you think they do, I donā€™t see why Trump canā€™t bring in new voters there. But even if Carson beats Trump in Iowa, that doesnā€™t really matter that much, as long as Trump and Carson both thump the Establishment candidates, (a) depriving them of one of the few chances to win an early primary, and (b) demonstrating their impotence and lack of appeal to a big chunk of GOP voters. > [@](#): > > But as establishment candidates drop out, the 47% who prefer an establishment type will start to rally around one guy. This will probably occur after Iowa and NH, which means that we should see by then only 2-3 establishment candidates vs. 3 outsiders. This makes sense to me, because as I see it, weā€™re already down to 5-6 candidates that can actually affect the race anymore: Trump, Carson, and Cruz on the ā€˜outsiderā€™ side, and Bush, Rubio, and possibly Kasich on the ā€˜establishmentā€™ side. Everyone else is pretty much window dressing at this point. The thing is, the winnowing is a double-edged sword, because people get a closer look at the survivors. Trumpā€™s already been in the glare of the spotlight for months, so that closer look isnā€™t going to hurt him very much. However, Bush, Rubio, and Carson arenā€™t going to look good when theyā€™re seen up close and personal, and Kasichā€™s apostasies on Obamacare and gay marriage will likely limit him. ā€œIā€™m gonna hold my nose and vote for Xā€ works OK in the general election, but not so well in the primaries. Iā€™ve got a hunch that this is a Goldwater sort of year, and Bush and Kasich are going to be its [Rockefeller](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Rockefeller#National_politics) and [Scranton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Scranton#1964_Presidential_Election), respectively. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2015, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/136 "2015-09-15T14:43:59Z")
> [@Little\_Pig](#): > > Oh, weā€™re just getting started. [U.S. ā€˜a dumping groundā€™ for the world.](http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-trump-dallas-rally-20150914-story.html) "Send me your tired, your poor "Your huddled masses yearning to breath free ā€œThe wretched refuse from your teeming shore . . .ā€ ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2015, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/137 "2015-09-15T15:09:25Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Thatā€™s how it works on the Dem side. [On the GOP side](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses#Republican_Party_process), you come in, listen to a bit of speechifying, then vote and leave. Since the Iowa GOP caucuses donā€™t work the way you think they do, I donā€™t see why Trump canā€™t bring in new voters there. Damn, I should have remembered that. Thanks. > [@](#): > > Iā€™ve got a hunch that this is a Goldwater sort of year, and Bush and Kasich are going to be its [Rockefeller](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Rockefeller#National_politics) and [Scranton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Scranton#1964_Presidential_Election), respectively. In 1964 the public wasnā€™t hungry for something different. Feels more like 1992 to me. But I think Trumpā€™s problem is that a) too many Republicans just wonā€™t vote for him at all, which puts a ceiling on his support. Heā€™ll do better the more candidates are in, and b) I still donā€™t think heā€™s serious about wanting the job. Heā€™s reportedly resisting spending money and isnā€™t campaigning as hard as the other hopefuls. He really is acting like his top priority is still his businesses. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2015, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/138 "2015-09-15T15:12:54Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > But I think Trumpā€™s problem is that a) too many Republicans just wonā€™t vote for him at all, which puts a ceiling on his support. Heā€™ll do better the more candidates are in, If you look at polls, that number (of Republicans swearing they will never vote for him) was big to start with and has been dropping ever since, down to small numbers now. ---
**Author:** ![Starving\_Artist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@Starving\_Artist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Starving_Artist)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2015, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/139 "2015-09-15T15:26:31Z")
> [@Bridget\_Burke](#): > > Business? Heā€™s famous for bankruptcies. Yes, heā€™s famous for bankruptcies to people who donā€™t know anything about business, and/or who are predisposed to dislike him to begin with. His bankruptcies involved a very small number of the overall businesses, companies and developments Trump has owned. Most people are aware of this and thatā€™s why his bankruptcies have been a non-starter for his opponents. > [@Bridget\_Burke](#): > > Entertainment? Heā€™s been a freak on Reality TV. Sorry, wrong again. Heā€™s had the charisma and business success necessary to headline a show requiring someone with enough gravitas to believably pass judgement on the business acumen of the contestants. His replacement is about to be Arnold Schwarzenegger, who, while most people donā€™t know it, has actually made more money from his various business activities than from his movies. Heā€™s basically a businessman who makes movies on the side. _The Apprentice_ needs to be headed by someone with charisma and extraordinary business success in order for the premise to work, and Trump has both in spades. > [@Bridget\_Burke](#): > > Now heā€™s catching the attention of starving old white guysā€¦ Sorry, wrong again. [This article](http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/10/politics/donald-trump-women/) shows that according to a recent CNN/ORC The Donald currently has 33% support among Republican women voters, and according to [this article](http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/donald-trump-beats-hillary-clinton-in-poll-and-gets-25-percent-among-blacks/article/2571545) a recent SurveyUSA poll shows that in a head-to-head matchup between Trump and Clinton, Trump carries 31% of Hispanics, 25% of blacks, and actually has the lead among Asians 41% vs. 39% for Clinton. And donā€™t forget, the election is still more than a year away and so far time has been Trumpā€™s ally and the more that time that goes by, the higher his numbers climb. (For example his support among Republican women as shown in the linked article above has increased from 20% a month ago to 33% now.) So thereā€™s every reason to expect that his numbers among all these groups will grow even higher as time goes by and the election draws closer. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2015, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/140 "2015-09-15T15:41:24Z")
Go Trump go! Trumpā€™s continued ascent is good news for the Democrats (in my view) for two reasons: 1. He sows chaos among Republicans. I think the party establishment will do anything, including breaking or changing their rules, to prevent his nomination. This is great for the Democrats (assuming his train doesnā€™t slow) ā€“ either theyā€™ll piss him off so much heā€™ll run third party, or theyā€™ll have a broken party for the general election, assuming Iā€™m right. 2. I think heā€™ll be an incredibly weak general election candidate. Sure, itā€™s too early to predict things like this, and Iā€™m not ready to make a prediction. But Iā€™m happy to state my instincts and feelings, and these indicate to me that heā€™d be a gift for the Democratic candidate. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828.md?page=8)