# Trump's Republican primary campaign **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 3, 2015, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828 "2015-09-03T18:00:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 83
**Author:** ![Mr.Nylock](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/77aa72/32.png) [@Mr.Nylock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Nylock)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2016, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/1645 "2016-01-30T14:30:21Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > Most of the union guys that would consider voting for Trump did not vote for Obama, not in 2012 anyway. Where are you getting this information from? ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2016, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/1646 "2016-01-30T17:51:04Z")
Trump on how he’d handle the problems of Middle-earth: [Donald Trump: Let Me Tell You About Smaug](http://thefederalist.com/2016/01/27/donald-trump-let-me-tell-you-about-smaug/) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2016, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/1647 "2016-01-30T18:39:14Z")
> [@Mr.Nylock](#): > > Where are you getting this information from? The same place that Ms. Henry gets the concern … best guesswork. Non-college educated White voters voted the most against Obama in 2012 … 62% of those who voted voted against him. While union politicking probably blunted that anti-Obama vote some, most assuredly much of that 62% were in Unions as well, and of course that group is the very same group that supports Trump the most. In fact on preview I’ve looked for and [found numbers](https://books.google.com/books?id=QuYoCAAAQBAJ&pg=PA134&lpg=PA134&dq=white+union+vote+obama&source=bl&ots=qI5xB2G_Wa&sig=rCNc1A9-lv-3YC04TAXP2AfIKd0&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjZh4b2k9LKAhVMOCYKHTYbAQ4Q6AEITzAK#v=onepage&q=white%20union%20vote%20obama&f=false). Since 2000 just a small bit more than half of White Union voters voted for the Democratic nominee. The White union vote is still important but is less central … in 1960 those votes were a third of those voting for the Democratic presidential nominee, by 2012 it was a sixth. Still they were likely critical in wins in WI and OH. Yes the calculus for a Trump v Clinton hypothetical includes Trump gaining share and turnout of non-college educated Whites (including Union Whites) by some amount while losing share of college educated Whites and likely inspiring Hispanic turnout some marginal amount. What data we have is sketchy but is presented [here](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/31/upshot/donald-trumps-strongest-supporters-a-certain-kind-of-democrat.html?_r=0): Trump attracts “a certain kind of Democrat” - the map of his support is quite > [@Nate Cohn](#): > > similar to a map of the tendency toward racism by region, according to measures like the prevalence of Google searches for racial slurs and racist jokes, or scores on implicit association tests. … > > … In many of these areas, a large number of traditionally Democratic voters have long supported Republicans in presidential elections. Even now, Democrats have more registered voters than Republicans do in states like West Virginia and Kentucky, which have been easily carried by Republicans in every presidential contest of this century. … during the Obama era, many of these voters have abandoned the Democrats. Many Democrats may now even identify as Republicans, or as independents who lean Republican, when asked by pollsters — a choice that means they’re included in a national Republican primary survey, whether they remain registered as Democrats or not. > > Mr. Trump appears to hold his greatest strength among people like these — registered Democrats who identify as Republican leaners — with 43 percent of their support, according to the Civis data. Similarly, many of Mr. Trump’s best states are those with a long tradition of Democrats who vote Republican in presidential elections, like West Virginia. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2016, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/1648 "2016-01-30T19:01:35Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > The same place that Ms. Henry gets the concern … best guesswork. > > Non-college educated White voters voted the most against Obama in 2012 … 62% of those who voted voted against him. While union politicking probably blunted that anti-Obama vote some, **most assuredly much of that 62% were in Unions as well** , turnout some marginal amount. (my bold) Without questioning some of your other reasoning, this seems an odd assumption to make. There’s only about 14 million union members in the U.S. and that number includes government workers and teachers unions. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Nylock](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/77aa72/32.png) [@Mr.Nylock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Nylock)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2016, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/1649 "2016-01-30T21:31:56Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > The same place that Ms. Henry gets the concern … best guesswork. OK, got it. Guesswork and extrapolation from a limited amount of data. Thank you for clearing that up. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2016, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/1650 "2016-01-30T22:03:56Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > (my bold) > Without questioning some of your other reasoning, this seems an odd assumption to make. There’s only about 14 million union members in the U.S. and that number includes government workers and teachers unions. Not getting why you think it is so odd. Just shy of half White union household voters voted against Obama, inclusive of those government worker and teacher union members. That those same voters are likely to also vote for Trump seems to be a reasonable presumption. How many of the 53% of White union household voters that voted for Obama are likely to defect to Trump in a Trump Clinton match-up, is the question I guess. Yes **Mr. Nylock** both the concern about union members voting for Trump and the thought that those who would most likely did not vote Democratic last time either are based on best guesswork with only limited data to actual extrapolate from. You asked. Happy to have answered. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Nylock](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/77aa72/32.png) [@Mr.Nylock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Nylock)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2016, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/1651 "2016-01-30T22:09:38Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Yes **Mr. Nylock** both the concern about union members voting for Trump and the thought that those who would most likely did not vote Democratic last time either are based on best guesswork with only limited data to actual extrapolate from. You asked. Happy to have answered. Well, to be honest, I asked **Slackerinc** where _he_ got _his_ information from. I was hoping for a link to an insightful article with some amount of intellectual rigor and at least some basic data directly supporting any assertions made. Instead; I got your response, but thank you for trying :). ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2016, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/1652 "2016-01-30T23:37:44Z")
Well not Slacker to be sure. But I will say it too, with as much credence as any prediction that there is reason to worry about Trump poaching votes from union members who had been Obama supporter: the nearly half of White union household voters who voted against Obama in 2012 will make up the bulk of those White union household voters who would vote for Trump. The basic data supporting that analysis was included in my response. Of course that clip of [American workers wages are too high](http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wages-are-too-high-2015-11) will get played lots too. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2016, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/1653 "2016-01-31T02:10:42Z")
Yes, as others surmised it is my best estimate based on many years as a seasoned political observer and in particular a student of polling and electoral demographics. I have little doubt that many Trump supporters voted for Bill Clinton in the 1990s, although most likely voted for Perot and of course the Republican candidates. Some may have voted for Gore and Kerry, maybe even Obama in 2008. But to suggest a significant portion of them voted for Obama in 2012 and will now vote for Trump against Hillary Clinton, is just not plausible. Who are these nonracist Trump fans who were happy with the status quo in 2012 but now think things have gone completely awry economically? You’ve got to tell a story here that makes sense and that one does not. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Nylock](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/77aa72/32.png) [@Mr.Nylock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Nylock)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2016, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/1654 "2016-01-31T02:26:37Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > Yes, as others surmised it is my best estimate based on many years as a seasoned political observer and in particular a student of polling and electoral demographics. A lot of people with a lot of experience make a lot of predictions. If you show me where you predicted in, say, August, the amount of appeal Trump would have now I will consider your estimates as akin to strong evidence. Barring that I get more excited about data. Yes, if we were taking bets, I would be betting the same as you - but really all we are doing is speculating. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2016, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/1655 "2016-01-31T04:44:11Z")
> [@Jesus' Siblings and Virgin Birth](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jesus-siblings-and-virgin-birth/206/21): > > Not getting why you think it is so odd. Just shy of half White union household voters voted against Obama, inclusive of those government worker and teacher union members. That those same voters are likely to also vote for Trump seems to be a reasonable presumption. > > How many of the 53% of White union household voters that voted for Obama are likely to defect to Trump in a Trump Clinton match-up, is the question I guess. > . Just the numbers don’t match up enough to say “much of” those uneducated whites were union members. By your account 62% of 60 million (# who voted against Obama) were uneducated whites, about 38 million. There’s only 14 million total union members in the U.S. - that includes black and educated union member. Istm safe to assume the vast majority of noneducated whites who voted against Obama were NOT union members not “much” of them. ---
**Author:** ![Hank\_Beecher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hank_beecher/32/7275_2.png) [@Hank\_Beecher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hank_Beecher)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2016, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/1656 "2016-01-31T04:55:03Z")
Interesting [sample of CSPAN callers](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lf3mddLIZvE)after Trump’s Vet rally that took the place of the debate he quit. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2016, 5:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/1657 "2016-01-31T05:12:37Z")
What’s interesting about it? ---
**Author:** ![Hank\_Beecher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hank_beecher/32/7275_2.png) [@Hank\_Beecher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hank_Beecher)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2016, 5:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/1658 "2016-01-31T05:18:06Z")
It shows some strong populist appeal to voters, both Republicans and Dems. It doesn’t seem like skipping the debate hurt him. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2016, 5:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/1659 "2016-01-31T05:40:02Z")
Trump has populist appeal, you say? That is indeed very interesting. I thought he only appealed to intellectuals and policy wonks. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2016, 5:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/1660 "2016-01-31T05:54:32Z")
Do I detect a faint note of sarcasm? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2016, 6:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/1661 "2016-01-31T06:27:35Z")
Actually, the Selzer poll says that Trump is doing well among moderates. > [@](#): > > Trump also leads with most demographic groups measured by the poll, including those without college degrees, moderates and Catholics. But: > [@](#): > > The poll’s findings suggest Trump is inspiring new interest in the Republican caucuses: 40 percent of those in the survey say they’ll be attending for the first time, the highest number recorded by the survey this election cycle. The last Iowa Poll before the 2012 caucuses showed 27 percent first-time caucus-goers. [http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-01-30/des-moines-register-bloomberg-politics-iowa-poll-republicans](http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-01-30/des-moines-register-bloomberg-politics-iowa-poll-republicans) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2016, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/1662 "2016-01-31T15:03:47Z")
Interesting since Selzer’s [Des Moines Register itself](http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/30/donald-trump-reclaims-lead-latest-iowa-poll/79562322/) leads with: > [@](#): > > 1. Nothing in this poll forecasts a groundswell of new people. > > Just 40 percent of the likely GOP electorate is made up of first-time caucusgoers, which is on par with the 38 percent of first-time caucusgoers reflected in 2012 entrance polling. and later goes onto state > [@](#): > > Cruz is stronger than Trump, if you look beyond the horse-race numbers. Interesting other bits from that poll - Trump’ overall unfavorability rating is 47% among likely GOP caucus goers (only Jeb does worse). That unfavorable has been increasing steadily since a low of 35% in August. His net favorable rating has dropped 23. Of “very unfavorable” he is highest of them all, 27%, up 8 since August. For the question “For each of these candidates, please tell me how enthusiastic your support would be if the person became the Republican nominee - would you be very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, just OK with it, or not OK with it?” he leads the “not OK” with 37%. Big deal remains that 45% still felt they were unsure and who shows is a big unknown. **Hank Beecher** you expected maybe that those few who tuned into listening to Trump on CSPAN rather than the debate were going to be mostly big Kasich fans? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2016, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/1663 "2016-01-31T17:58:41Z")
This bit from the Des Moines \*Register \*article **DSeid** quoted just above is both interesting and confusing: > [@](#): > > 1. Nothing in this poll forecasts a groundswell of new people. > > Just 40 percent of the likely GOP electorate is made up of first-time caucusgoers, which is on par with the 38 percent of first-time caucusgoers reflected in 2012 entrance polling. So last time in 2012 38% of likely R voters went to their first caucus. And this time in 2016 it’s expected that 40% of likely R voters are going to their first caucus. The implication is that 78% of the folks at this year’s (tomorrow’s) caucus were not involved in politics enough to attend any caucus in 2008 or before. That really boggles my mind. Or said another way, that makes me question the factual accuracy of either what they said or how I understand it. Iowa doesn’t have very dynamic demographics. Not a lot of new kids aging into the electorate, not a lot of inter-state immigration. But they’re in effect asserting an 80% turnover in their primary season electorate in just two elections. If true, then Something very Significant is happening to replace the electorate internally. Which implies that substantially everything about the history of Iowa R voters is inapplicable to this caucus season. Color me confused. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2016, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/1664 "2016-01-31T20:22:19Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > …For the question “For each of these candidates, please tell me how enthusiastic your support would be if the person became the Republican nominee - would you be very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, just OK with it, or not OK with it?” he leads the “not OK” with 37%… Where’s the “I’d rather cut off my own hand with a butter knife than cast a vote for him” option? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828.md?page=82) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828.md?page=84)