# Trump's Republican primary campaign **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 3, 2015, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828 "2015-09-03T18:00:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 1287
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2016, 9:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/1287 "2016-01-01T09:55:48Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I am standing by my prediction: the polls overestimate the numbers who will come out to vote for him. His greatest strength is with the marginally connected to the GOP, those least likely to come out to vote (and in some cases not allowed to vote) in a GOP primary. As the article also notes, TRUMP leads in all demographics-those are just the demographics he happens to be the strongest with. And he is undoubtedly being underpolled due to TRUMP’s perceived lack of respectability. > [@](#): > > He will lose solidly in Iowa to Cruz, possibly not even coming in second, and certainly not a close second. And on the heels of that failure to meet expectations LOL. There is no “expectation” that TRUMP needs to win Iowa and considering both Huckabee and Santorum won Iowa while being crushed in the course of the primaries, its clear the caucauses are not particularly reflect of the national contest. That said, Trump’s been tied or nipping at Cruz’s heels in most of the polls. Even assuming he is underperforming there’s no way TRUMP won’t get a respectable second place-Iowa likes the Establishment quartet even less, Carson’s campaign is in terminal decline, and Huckabee/Santorum/Paul all have abysmal numbers. > [@](#): > > he will fail to win in New Hampshire albeit a whole crew will be clumped together with Rubio likely coming out on top, and Cruz, Trump and several others all just below. Double LOL. TRUMP has a solid lead in every New Hampshire poll. With the Establishment completely divided due to Jeb!, Rubio, Koch Kuck Kasich, and Krispy Kreme Khristie all staking their bets on the state there’s no way their forces will be able to unite much less overpower TRUMP’s base of support. > [@](#): > > From there it becomes mostly a Cruz Rubio race as Trump’s story becomes the story of failed expectations. Just like lots of his other projects … [/QUOTE] Keep telling yourself that. > [@adaher](#): > > That’s the strongest evidence yet that he’ll underperform his polling. Registered Democrats can’t vote in most primaries. Except of course unless they decide to change their registration. --- _[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828)._