# Trump's trial just ended--let's predict the verdict! (Verdict is Guilty on All Counts May 30, 2024) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [May 29, 2024, 11:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-trial-just-ended-lets-predict-the-verdict-verdict-is-guilty-on-all-counts-may-30-2024/1002224 "2024-05-29T11:01:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 11:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-trial-just-ended-lets-predict-the-verdict-verdict-is-guilty-on-all-counts-may-30-2024/1002224/1 "2024-05-29T11:01:08Z")
Today is the last day of Trump’s hush-money trial. The main thread about it has 4800 posts. So, for fun… let’s see if a few thousand of us Dopers are as smart as 12 jurors! Let’s predict the results… There can only be three possible results, so pick the one you are absolutely, one-hundred-percent sure is the correct answer—the one which you know those 12 jurors just have to agree with you, right? 🙂 _Poll ([view on site](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-trial-just-ended-lets-predict-the-verdict-verdict-is-guilty-on-all-counts-may-30-2024/1002224/1))_ The winners (i.e. all those who correctly predict the results of the jurors’ decision) will win the right to open and participate in a new thread labelled “Ha Ha, I Told You So”. All others must forever hang their head in shame, and admit that even the Dope isn’t always perfect. (To be more specific: This poll refers to the final , most important verdict–the felony. Trump is accused of 34 misdemeanor counts of fraud, but this poll is about the really important issue: the felony charge of intent to commit election fraud). I’m going first, and I pick “hung jury”. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 11:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-trial-just-ended-lets-predict-the-verdict-verdict-is-guilty-on-all-counts-may-30-2024/1002224/2 "2024-05-29T11:16:36Z")
i predict hung. Might be by one obstinate MAGA that somehow slipped through voir dire. I pray otherwise, and have some hope as this is a jury of New Yorkers. I’ve been wondering this. If someone clearly lied during voir dire, can they be replaced with an alternate? ---
**Author:** ![Half\_Man\_Half\_Wit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/half_man_half_wit/32/21766_2.png) [@Half\_Man\_Half\_Wit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Half_Man_Half_Wit)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 11:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-trial-just-ended-lets-predict-the-verdict-verdict-is-guilty-on-all-counts-may-30-2024/1002224/3 "2024-05-29T11:23:55Z")
Normally, I’d go with the opposite of what I would want to happen, so that if that fails to occur, I at least have the satisfaction of being right. But there would be no satisfaction in this case, so I chose ‘guilty’ out of pure and desperate hope. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 11:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-trial-just-ended-lets-predict-the-verdict-verdict-is-guilty-on-all-counts-may-30-2024/1002224/4 "2024-05-29T11:23:57Z")
Guilty verdict before the end of the week. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 11:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-trial-just-ended-lets-predict-the-verdict-verdict-is-guilty-on-all-counts-may-30-2024/1002224/5 "2024-05-29T11:26:00Z")
Guilty tomorrow. Church bells ring throughout the land. Dancing in the streets. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 11:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-trial-just-ended-lets-predict-the-verdict-verdict-is-guilty-on-all-counts-may-30-2024/1002224/6 "2024-05-29T11:38:33Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > There can only be three possible results, so pick the one you are absolutely, one-hundred-percent sure is the correct answer—the one which you know those 12 jurors just have to agree with you, right? 🙂 Putting aside the smiley, it seems to me that it all comes down to what those 12 jurors think “reasonable doubt” means; my mealy-mouthed shrug means I’ll obviously be left out when it comes to bragging rights — and I won’t even belong in the company of those who called it as they saw it — but, try as I might, I honestly can’t get one step further than wondering what they’ll figure a reasonable doubt _is._ ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-trial-just-ended-lets-predict-the-verdict-verdict-is-guilty-on-all-counts-may-30-2024/1002224/7 "2024-05-29T13:13:55Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > so pick the one you are absolutely, one-hundred-percent sure is the correct answer Whelp, i can’t vote in this poll. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-trial-just-ended-lets-predict-the-verdict-verdict-is-guilty-on-all-counts-may-30-2024/1002224/8 "2024-05-29T13:21:13Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > so pick the one you are absolutely, one-hundred-percent sure is the correct answer I voted guilty anyway. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-trial-just-ended-lets-predict-the-verdict-verdict-is-guilty-on-all-counts-may-30-2024/1002224/9 "2024-05-29T13:32:21Z")
I voted guilty, but I think it’s only a 66% chance. ---
**Author:** ![Daithi\_Lacha](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/daithi_lacha/32/5430_2.png) [@Daithi\_Lacha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Daithi_Lacha)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-trial-just-ended-lets-predict-the-verdict-verdict-is-guilty-on-all-counts-may-30-2024/1002224/10 "2024-05-29T13:59:45Z")
Guilty, but not on all counts (which wasn’t an option) ---
**Author:** ![veryfrank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/87869e/32.png) [@veryfrank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/veryfrank)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-trial-just-ended-lets-predict-the-verdict-verdict-is-guilty-on-all-counts-may-30-2024/1002224/11 "2024-05-29T15:10:02Z")
Same. Of the 34 charges, I’ll guess…guilty on 10. Though there doesn’t seem to be a substatial difference in his guilt from charge to charge, I’ve no doubt there are subtleties that can be argued to which I’m not privy. And it may come down to horsetrading in the jury room with one or two holdouts. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-trial-just-ended-lets-predict-the-verdict-verdict-is-guilty-on-all-counts-may-30-2024/1002224/12 "2024-05-29T16:03:17Z")
Does the article linked [here](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/manhattan-prosecutors-file-criminal-charges-for-trump-re-stormy-daniels-case-ongoing-discussion-here/980953/4877) move the needle for anyone? ---
**Author:** ![SuntanLotion](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suntanlotion/32/16165_2.png) [@SuntanLotion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SuntanLotion)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-trial-just-ended-lets-predict-the-verdict-verdict-is-guilty-on-all-counts-may-30-2024/1002224/13 "2024-05-29T16:14:58Z")
Well, if I’m right, I will be one of the few. I said Not. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-trial-just-ended-lets-predict-the-verdict-verdict-is-guilty-on-all-counts-may-30-2024/1002224/14 "2024-05-29T16:22:23Z")
Ooh, I’m curious about the opinion of @rocking_chair, who’s been copy/pasting trial coverage for the whole time. ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-trial-just-ended-lets-predict-the-verdict-verdict-is-guilty-on-all-counts-may-30-2024/1002224/15 "2024-05-29T16:32:13Z")
i’m thinking both. i believe there is a good chance of not guilty on the checks and charges not signed by trump. i believe guilty on the ones with his signature. i’m thinking friday, although i do have a can of bubbly ready in the fridge. **Best Sparkling Rosé** **House Wine Rosé Bubbles** Overall, this is the best sparkling rosé in a can that we tried because it is the most balanced and accessible. It’s fruity upon first sip, but ends clean and dry, so you’re ready to take another sip. The bubbles are tiny and delicate. It’s an elegant sparkling rosé in a can, perfect for baby showers or engagement parties or hanging out on the couch eating microwave popcorn. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-trial-just-ended-lets-predict-the-verdict-verdict-is-guilty-on-all-counts-may-30-2024/1002224/16 "2024-05-29T16:35:19Z")
My WAG - 80% guilty - 15% hung jury - 5% not guilty ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-trial-just-ended-lets-predict-the-verdict-verdict-is-guilty-on-all-counts-may-30-2024/1002224/17 "2024-05-29T16:38:54Z")
My WAG adding in the possibility of guilty on some charges only: - 60% guilty all charges - 20% guilty on only the charges where the docs have DJT’s signature - 15% hung jury - 5% Not guilty all charges What happens if there is a hold out on some of the charges (or just one charge)? ---
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-trial-just-ended-lets-predict-the-verdict-verdict-is-guilty-on-all-counts-may-30-2024/1002224/18 "2024-05-29T16:45:48Z")
I picked hung jury. My bizarre fear, based on nothing really, is not the hidden MAGA but someone who’s trying too hard to be objective and, regardless of his/her beliefs and convictions, and based on his/her perceived complexities of this, simply can’t see anything **but** a reasonable doubt. This opinion is probably nuts and I truly hope for both guilty and jail time (though I know that’s to be determined later) ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-trial-just-ended-lets-predict-the-verdict-verdict-is-guilty-on-all-counts-may-30-2024/1002224/19 "2024-05-29T16:46:27Z")
My guess: 50% not guilty on all charges 40% guilty (on most of the charges) 10% hung jury The falsification of business records is a very near a slam dunk. I’m not sure the jury is going to be able to get to the felonious aspects, i.e., to cover up another crime. I would very much like to be wrong. I would say not guilty almost for sure on the cheques that Trump did not personally sign. ---
**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-trial-just-ended-lets-predict-the-verdict-verdict-is-guilty-on-all-counts-may-30-2024/1002224/20 "2024-05-29T16:50:50Z")
[Sarcasm ON] This case has nothing to do with the evidence. President Trump (who had the last election stolen from him) is clearly not guilty. And when he is re-elected, everyone involved with this case will be charged and sent to prison. [Sarcasm OFF] [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-trial-just-ended-lets-predict-the-verdict-verdict-is-guilty-on-all-counts-may-30-2024/1002224.md?page=2)