# Turkey Election, Erdogan may lose.to Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Could be good for the West and bad for Putin {Erdogan won} **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 14, 2023, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-election-erdogan-may-lose-to-kemal-kilicdaroglu-could-be-good-for-the-west-and-bad-for-putin-erdogan-won/984029 "2023-05-14T14:26:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2023, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-election-erdogan-may-lose-to-kemal-kilicdaroglu-could-be-good-for-the-west-and-bad-for-putin-erdogan-won/984029/1 "2023-05-14T14:26:05Z")
Kilicdaroglu does not appear to be pro-Putin. He is not the front man for a conservative Islamist party. So on the surface this seems good if he wins. Does anyone know more about who he is and what he wants to do? The second story I linked sounds very positive. Especially the claims he’ll give back independence to the judiciary. That one sound super positive. > **[Turkey faces runoff election with Erdogan leading](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-votes-pivotal-elections-that-could-end-erdogans-20-year-rule-2023-05-13/)** > > Turkey headed for a runoff vote after President Tayyip Erdogan led over his opposition rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu in Sunday's election but fell short of an outright majority to extend his 20-year rule of the NATO-member country. > **[Turkey's upbeat Kilicdaroglu says election will bring a new spring](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-upbeat-kilicdaroglu-says-election-will-bring-new-spring-2023-05-14/)** > > He is not as charismatic as Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan, but mild-mannered Kemal Kilicdaroglu is optimistic about his chances of beating Erdogan in Sunday's election, promising a new spring after two decades of his rival's tumultuous... It looks like this election is mostly about economics, especially insanely high inflation. Anyway, I’m looking for more information from people that follow the politics of the region more closely. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2023, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-election-erdogan-may-lose-to-kemal-kilicdaroglu-could-be-good-for-the-west-and-bad-for-putin-erdogan-won/984029/2 "2023-05-14T14:53:32Z")
Well, Kilicdaroglu is seen as more of a secularist and more pro-West (my info largely comes from a N.Y. Times analysis), plus his CV boasts that he was once named “Bureaucrat of the Year” (how exciting). Erdogan has been contemptuous, saying at a campaign event: “Mr. Kemal, you can’t even lead a sheep, you can’t.” Oooh, the _burn_. Hoping Erdogan gets the boot. I’m expecting a runoff. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2023, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-election-erdogan-may-lose-to-kemal-kilicdaroglu-could-be-good-for-the-west-and-bad-for-putin-erdogan-won/984029/3 "2023-05-14T15:09:57Z")
[Many Kurdish voters are cautiously supporting Kilicdaroglu.](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/11/dont-take-our-votes-for-granted-warn-kurdish-voters-in-turkey?traffic_source=KeepReading) They’re not a monolith, of course, and they’re naturally pretty cynical given recent Kurdish history. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2023, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-election-erdogan-may-lose-to-kemal-kilicdaroglu-could-be-good-for-the-west-and-bad-for-putin-erdogan-won/984029/4 "2023-05-14T20:23:52Z")
A big deal thing. If neither gets a majority then there is a run off. [Currently](https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/turkey-election-05-14-23/index.html) too close to call with 80% counted. Seems like the biggest small party is headed by an Erogdon supporter? Anyone have a good understanding of how to read implications as results come in? ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2023, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-election-erdogan-may-lose-to-kemal-kilicdaroglu-could-be-good-for-the-west-and-bad-for-putin-erdogan-won/984029/5 "2023-05-14T20:32:42Z")
I’m curious what odds are that Erdogan will rig the results. I can’t imagine him allowing a fair vote. Maybe I’m too jaded and someone can convince me otherwise but I find it highly unlikely he will go quietly. ---
**Author:** ![Chingon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chingon/32/17645_2.png) [@Chingon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chingon)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2023, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-election-erdogan-may-lose-to-kemal-kilicdaroglu-could-be-good-for-the-west-and-bad-for-putin-erdogan-won/984029/6 "2023-05-14T20:38:18Z")
I will be pretty shocked if Erdogan doesn’t win (or more precisely get declared the winner). He doesn’t seem the type to let that happen. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2023, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-election-erdogan-may-lose-to-kemal-kilicdaroglu-could-be-good-for-the-west-and-bad-for-putin-erdogan-won/984029/7 "2023-05-14T22:08:17Z")
Runoff election likely: [Turkey faces runoff election for president as Erdogan survives first test (msn.com)](https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/turkey-faces-runoff-election-for-president-as-erdogan-survives-first-test/ar-AA1bbhWk) ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2023, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-election-erdogan-may-lose-to-kemal-kilicdaroglu-could-be-good-for-the-west-and-bad-for-putin-erdogan-won/984029/8 "2023-05-14T22:37:09Z")
There have [already been accusations by Kilicdaroglu that Russia is interfering in the election.](https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2023/5/12/turkeys-kilicdaroglu-accuses-russia-of-interfering-in-elections) Now, did Erdogan ask ‘em to do it, or are they helpful? ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2023, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-election-erdogan-may-lose-to-kemal-kilicdaroglu-could-be-good-for-the-west-and-bad-for-putin-erdogan-won/984029/9 "2023-05-15T02:22:21Z")
Russia clearly would prefer to keep Erdogan in place. Erdogan would like to keep Erdogan in place. State controlled media will continue to promote Erdogan. I’m puzzled why people expect any runoff result other than Erdogan winning. I would really like to understand why there is any hope Erdogan will be defeated and leave office. ---
**Author:** ![ParallelLines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/parallellines/32/3575_2.png) [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2023, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-election-erdogan-may-lose-to-kemal-kilicdaroglu-could-be-good-for-the-west-and-bad-for-putin-erdogan-won/984029/10 "2023-05-15T02:38:15Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > I’m curious what odds are that Erdogan will rig the results. I can’t imagine him allowing a fair vote. Maybe I’m too jaded and someone can convince me otherwise but I find it highly unlikely he will go quietly. > [@Chingon](#): > > I will be pretty shocked if Erdogan doesn’t win (or more precisely get declared the winner). He doesn’t seem the type to let that happen. > [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > I would really like to understand why there is any hope Erdogan will be defeated and leave office. While I agree with the above, I suspect a lot of us are also worried that even _if_ the results of the runoff were in favor of Erdogan’s challenger, that he would not accept it. The anti-democratic efforts he’s put forth over the years far outweigh the efforts of the Republican party in the US and I suspect he’s got more than enough hardliner and military support to ride out any protests if he pulls a Trump and claims any results that shows him losing are fake. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2023, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-election-erdogan-may-lose-to-kemal-kilicdaroglu-could-be-good-for-the-west-and-bad-for-putin-erdogan-won/984029/11 "2023-05-15T02:55:50Z")
I guess I wasn’t clear in my previous posts - I’m worried about EXACTLY this and would like to know **why** anyone thinks Erdogan will accept election results that don’t favor him. Is there any evidence Erdogan will leave office peacefully? I see nothing to suggest that will happen regardless of the actual vote results. Have I missed something or is the media simply misleading us in suggesting Turkey is still a democracy? ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2023, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-election-erdogan-may-lose-to-kemal-kilicdaroglu-could-be-good-for-the-west-and-bad-for-putin-erdogan-won/984029/12 "2023-05-15T12:59:53Z")
It’s not just about the Presidency, AIUI. Whether the opposition coalition will be in a position to get through the reforms Kılıçdaroğlu wants - that’s another matter. > **[Turkey election results 2023: what we know so far](https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/15/turkey-election-2023-results-live-election-result-polls-what-we-know-so-far)** > > Presidential race between Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and main rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu appears likely to result in a runoff in two weeks’ time > **[Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu: politician touted as future of Turkish democracy](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/08/kemal-kilicdaroglu-touted-future-turkish-democracy-elections-erdogan)** > > Ex-accountant, 74, is Erdoğan’s key rival in 14 May election and tells the Guardian: ‘Despite it all, we will win’ ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2023, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-election-erdogan-may-lose-to-kemal-kilicdaroglu-could-be-good-for-the-west-and-bad-for-putin-erdogan-won/984029/13 "2023-05-15T16:42:37Z")
> [@PatrickLondon](#): > > Kılıçdaroğlu A little help? How does an American pronounce that without being offensive? Making it a little harder is the fact that I don’t read IPA easily. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2023, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-election-erdogan-may-lose-to-kemal-kilicdaroglu-could-be-good-for-the-west-and-bad-for-putin-erdogan-won/984029/14 "2023-05-15T16:51:25Z")
My understanding is that he’s quite centrist - with “centrist” meaning central for Turkey, not for the USA. So my guess would be that he’s not going to be some European dream replacement for Erdogan but, maybe, more like a minor “undo”, taking Turkey back to how it was 8-12 years ago - under Erdogan - rather than how it is today. In general, the Turks have been fairly happy with Erdogan. But he has been trending away from working for Turkey and towards working for Erdogan, himself. An earlier Erdogan is, realistically, a better one. In general, I’d expect Kılıçdaroğlu to probably keep most policy that’s currently in place, in place, but to temper it. I don’t think he’ll go for rocking any boats, just doing things like saying, “Well, yes, you still can’t say anything negative about Turkey or Turkishness, but we’ll fine you rather than locking you up.” Or, “Yes, we still need Sweden to turn over Kurdish terrorists before we’ll accept them into NATO, but we’ll limit our invasions into Northern Syria to targeted, special ops against groups that we can convince our allies have acted in terroristic ways.” ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2023, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-election-erdogan-may-lose-to-kemal-kilicdaroglu-could-be-good-for-the-west-and-bad-for-putin-erdogan-won/984029/15 "2023-05-15T18:52:04Z")
> [@silenus](#): > > A little help? How does an American pronounce that without being offensive? Making it a little harder is the fact that I don’t read IPA easily. The Wikipedia article not only has the ipa, it has a little button where you can listen to it. It’s quite difficult. I think “KEM-all killitch-dar-OH-loo” is as close as is reasonable for someone who doesn’t speak or read Turkish, which includes me. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2023, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-election-erdogan-may-lose-to-kemal-kilicdaroglu-could-be-good-for-the-west-and-bad-for-putin-erdogan-won/984029/16 "2023-05-18T00:25:13Z")
[Ballot irregularities have been reported](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/17/turkeys-opposition-claim-ballot-irregularities-in-sundays-polls). That’s not good, but sadly not unexpected (at least to me). ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2023, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-election-erdogan-may-lose-to-kemal-kilicdaroglu-could-be-good-for-the-west-and-bad-for-putin-erdogan-won/984029/17 "2023-05-27T15:24:18Z")
The run-off is tomorrow: Sunday 2023-05-28 > **[Turkey's runoff election will decide if Erdogan extends his 20-year rule](https://www.npr.org/2023/05/27/1178356544/turkey-election-runoff-erdoga-kilicdaroglu)** > > After an inconclusive round one, Sunday's vote should decide whether citizens still want President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in charge for another five-year term, and he could have an edge to win. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2023, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-election-erdogan-may-lose-to-kemal-kilicdaroglu-could-be-good-for-the-west-and-bad-for-putin-erdogan-won/984029/18 "2023-05-27T15:43:25Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > The run-off is tomorrow: Sunday 2023-05-27 Thanks for the heads-up. Sunday is the 28th, BTW, even in Turkey! 😉 ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2023, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-election-erdogan-may-lose-to-kemal-kilicdaroglu-could-be-good-for-the-west-and-bad-for-putin-erdogan-won/984029/19 "2023-05-27T15:44:41Z")
Thank you, I fixed it. You know when you’re typing a date and you just automatic end up putting in today’s date? That was a good example of it. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2023, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-election-erdogan-may-lose-to-kemal-kilicdaroglu-could-be-good-for-the-west-and-bad-for-putin-erdogan-won/984029/20 "2023-05-28T18:57:37Z")
Erdogan wins, apparently. > **[Erdogan thanks voters as he declares victory in Turkey run-off](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/5/28/turkey-election-results-2023-live-erdogan-kilicdaroglu-run-off)** > > Erdogan has beaten rival Kilicdaroglu, according to unofficial results published by the country’s state news agency. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-election-erdogan-may-lose-to-kemal-kilicdaroglu-could-be-good-for-the-west-and-bad-for-putin-erdogan-won/984029.md?page=2)