# Turkey invading Iraq + Pakistani instability + US bombing Iran = ME meltdown? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 30, 2007, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-invading-iraq-pakistani-instability-us-bombing-iran-me-meltdown/424637 "2007-10-30T22:16:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 10\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![smiling\_bandit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9a140/32.png) [@smiling\_bandit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smiling_bandit)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2007, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-invading-iraq-pakistani-instability-us-bombing-iran-me-meltdown/424637/21 "2007-11-01T16:08:06Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] The problem is that Musharraf is in power now, wants to keep it, and is hostile to and opposed by **both** of those forces. [/quote] Except that he’s not powerufl enough to deal with the Islamists by himself, which is why he’s been forced to try and pursue civilian aspects of power and let democratic activist leaders back in. He already WAS absolute dictator and he couldn’t “win” that way. > [@](#): > > 😕 No, I don’t think that would be the intention. Crippling the military is not “maintaining the status quo.” Brainglutton, bombing their nuclear plants would not cripple their military and there’s no talk of even trying to conduct general bombing operations in Iran. Even aside from the actual facts, yes, it would maintain the status quo. We wouldn’t take down their government and they wouldn’t fire a nuke off. > [@](#): > > If the U.S. and Iraqi governments are committed to a united Iraq, they can’t ignore it when a third country violates Iraqi sovereignty in a “thin slice” of the country. Kurd lands are different. They rule themselves and keep to themselves, and like it that way. The U.S. is actually opposed to the fringe elements doing the attacks against Turkey, and probably can convince the Kurds to cool it. However, these kinds of brushfire wars are pretty common in the region and it’s unlikely to go much farther. The Turks will bring down a major manure-shower o’er their heads if they do so. They may try anyway, but they lack the capacity and the diplomatic heft to go very far with it. And in any case, it would be very good PR for the Iraqi government and the Kurds themselves, who are a rather downtrodden people who take their freedom and independance very seriously. I’m not even sure the Turks can manage to deal with the PKK, let alone the rest of the Kurds. In any case, it’s hardly going to cause a meltdown. This kind of brushfire war happens all over the ME, and in fact a lot of third world countries. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2007, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-invading-iraq-pakistani-instability-us-bombing-iran-me-meltdown/424637/22 "2007-11-01T21:26:56Z")
[QUOTE=smiling bandit] Brainglutton, bombing their nuclear plants would not cripple their military and there’s no talk of even trying to conduct general bombing operations in Iran. [/QUOTE] [That has changed.](http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/10/08/071008fa_fact_hersh) > [@](#): > > The President’s position, and its corollary—that, if many of America’s problems in Iraq are the responsibility of Tehran, then the solution to them is to confront the Iranians—have taken firm hold in the Administration. This summer, the White House, pushed by the office of Vice-President Dick Cheney, requested that the Joint Chiefs of Staff redraw long-standing plans for a possible attack on Iran, according to former officials and government consultants. The focus of the plans had been a broad bombing attack, with targets including Iran’s known and suspected nuclear facilities and other military and infrastructure sites. Now the emphasis is on “surgical” strikes on Revolutionary Guard Corps facilities in Tehran and elsewhere, which, the Administration claims, have been the source of attacks on Americans in Iraq. What had been presented primarily as a counter-proliferation mission has been reconceived as counterterrorism. Attacking the RGC **would** threaten the political status quo in Iran, though I doubt it would overturn it (to the contrary, it would reinforce popular support for the government). ---
**Author:** ![AskNott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asknott/32/5790_2.png) [@AskNott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AskNott)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2007, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-invading-iraq-pakistani-instability-us-bombing-iran-me-meltdown/424637/23 "2007-11-02T05:07:21Z")
The Turkish invasion of Kurdish territory has begun. The only suspense is in which news person will be the first to say, “KURKS AND TURDS.” Professional mouths are already slowing to a crawl when they approach the deadly phrase. If I were a gambler, I’d go right to Horrendo Revolver. 🆒 ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2007, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-invading-iraq-pakistani-instability-us-bombing-iran-me-meltdown/424637/24 "2007-11-02T17:52:31Z")
Well, somehow I don’t see how a regional war from Saudi Arabia’s borders to India’s borders would not affect the KSA. One of the reasons why they are talking about bombing Iran is so that they cannot usurp the KSA’s role as regional hegemon. Personally, I’d take Persians over Arabs any day of the week, but that’s just me. We get more oil from the KSA, and China gets more oil from Iran, thus we bomb Iran rather than the KSA, even though the KSA is a greater enemy than Iran due to the funding of terrorism. It’s unfortunate that we are so tied to the Saudis when the Iranians are a much greater force for stability in the Middle-East. As the old trope goes, ‘Arabic science’ is really ‘Persian and Jewish Science’. The Persians simply seem to have a more advanced culture, whereas the Arabs are good at being feudal despots, but haven’t shown much capacity to move beyond that paradigm. Personally I am for a free Kurdistan. If there is to be a regional meltdown let’s carve the Turkey and take a chunk out of Iran. Then we can dissolve the remainder of Iraq into Sunni, and Shi’ite portions, ensuring that they are sovereign nations rather than going to be part of Saudi Arabia and Iran. It is better that they are vassal states to the regional hegemons as well as the global hegemons than as wholesale parts of the big players in the region. I think in the long term an independent Kurdistan would be a force for stability in the region. They seem to be a plucky and industrious people, if their tribal lands were not split amongst three countries, they’d have less of an impetus to be terrorists. At the end of the day, Turkey has two options, Fascist Secular dictatorship posing as a democracy, or Fascist Islamist Dictatorship posing as a democracy. Kurdistan can be a regional force of balance, possibly even democratic. The problem with the Middle-East and Central Asia (for our resident pedants ;p ) is that the maps don’t reflect the tribal landscape. Hopefully this Oil Shale business in the Western US will pan out and take us off the KSA’s teat so we can tell them where they can shove their no account lazy can’t even maintain their own civil infrastructure without the Great Satan, @$$es. The War on Terror is a big joke until we recognize that we are focusing on every country except for the real target. We should’ve been going for regime change in the KSA in 2003, I would’ve been behind that one. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2007, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-invading-iraq-pakistani-instability-us-bombing-iran-me-meltdown/424637/25 "2007-11-04T19:31:44Z")
[QUOTE=smiling bandit] Except that he’s not powerufl enough to deal with the Islamists by himself, which is why he’s been forced to try and pursue civilian aspects of power and let democratic activist leaders back in. He already WAS absolute dictator and he couldn’t “win” that way. [/QUOTE] Well, he hasn’t learned from his mistakes, apparently. Musharraf just [declared a state of emergency, suspended the constitution, sent soldiers in to the Supreme Court, and announced the elections scheduled for January will be postponed indefinitely.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Pakistani_state_of_emergency) ---
**Author:** ![Farmer\_Oak](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/ecb155/32.png) [@Farmer\_Oak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Farmer_Oak)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2007, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-invading-iraq-pakistani-instability-us-bombing-iran-me-meltdown/424637/26 "2007-11-05T00:26:40Z")
[QUOTE=The\_Magralopterix] ME Meltdown? I hope so. The whole place is an ugly great swamp of death and repression. With a bit of luck the whole place will cleanse itself with fire we can be rid of it. [/QUOTE] Ask Hitler how well that worked out for him. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2007, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-invading-iraq-pakistani-instability-us-bombing-iran-me-meltdown/424637/27 "2007-11-05T01:18:01Z")
[QUOTE=Farmer Oak] Ask Hitler how well that worked out for him. :rolleyes: [/QUOTE] Actually, it worked out pretty well for Germany and for Europe – **in the very long run.** But it is not a remedy I would prescribe to any country or region. ---
**Author:** ![Farmer\_Oak](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/ecb155/32.png) [@Farmer\_Oak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Farmer_Oak)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2007, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-invading-iraq-pakistani-instability-us-bombing-iran-me-meltdown/424637/28 "2007-11-05T01:23:19Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Actually, it worked out pretty well for Germany and for Europe – **in the very long run.** But it is not a remedy I would prescribe to any country or region. [/QUOTE] So you consider the Holocaust justifiable because Europe is stable today? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2007, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-invading-iraq-pakistani-instability-us-bombing-iran-me-meltdown/424637/29 "2007-11-05T02:36:01Z")
[QUOTE=Farmer Oak] So you consider the Holocaust justifiable because Europe is stable today? [/QUOTE] Not at all. Nor would Europe today be any worse off if the war had happened without the Holocaust and it were still home to millions of Jews. I was referring to the **war,** not the Holocaust: It was horrible while it lasted, but it did lead, eventually and indirectly, to a free, democratic, and more-or-less united Europe where any further war is almost inconceivable. But worth the destruction? No. And not an example the Islamic world should follow, whatever the long-term outcome. ---
**Author:** ![Ale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/f19dbf/32.png) [@Ale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ale)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2007, 7:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-invading-iraq-pakistani-instability-us-bombing-iran-me-meltdown/424637/30 "2007-11-14T07:28:58Z")
The fan was spinning and now the poo has been flung: > [@](#): > > [BAGHDAD, Nov. 13 — Turkish military aircraft attacked a handful of abandoned villages in northern Iraq on Tuesday, Iraqi officials said, in the first confirmed cross-border assault since tensions between Turkey and Kurdish rebels began intensifying last month.](http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/14/world/middleeast/14iraq.html?_r=1&ref=middleeast&oref=slogin) Maybe just a dry run to see what reactions it provokes? > [@](#): > > “The sky is in the hands of the Americans, so they knew about this attack and they know Turkish planes entered Iraqi territory,” Mr. Hussein said. “We hope this will not be repeated again.” That´s what I call an uncomfortable position, should the US defend the Iraqis or play dumb with Turkey? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/turkey-invading-iraq-pakistani-instability-us-bombing-iran-me-meltdown/424637.md?page=1)