I think the long-term, non-military part of the plan is allready in operation.
Why is there Arab resentment against the US? Much of this I agree with Friedman on;
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The deepest reasons probably have to do with the USs propping up of Arab dictatorships during and after the cold war. Im not trying to judge the good or bad of that, just stating it.
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This propping up, or maybe to be more specific the lack of US pressure to modernize their regimes, combined with oil profits have allowed many Arab regimes to avoid having undergo changes to the benefit of their citizens that other not so nice regimes have had to undergo in the past, whether because of US pressure or internal pressure.
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Arab regimes actively work to deflect critisicm from themselves to the US and Israel.
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While given as the one of the main reasons often by Arabs themselves, our support of Israel is not as deep a cause of resentment as it may seem, it my opinion. Its just one of the most fashionable right now.
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Iraq. Also a current strong cause of resentment, it isnt very deep, because, well, it hasnt been going on all that long. It too is very fashionable right now. If anything, it is resented as a continuation of 1 and 2.
I posit that 4 and 5 have their roots in 1 and 2. And I think that, whether this was or is the intent of the Bush admin, we are now in the position to sow the seeds to defuse 1 and 2. But I also think its going to get worse before it gets better.
I am convinced, though I may very well be giving the Bush team too much credit, that going into Iraq was also motivated at least in part because by being in Iraq, we have a crowbar to use on the Saudis.
The Saudies created and sustain the environment that generated 19 suicide hijackers. They created and sustain the environment that produced Ibn Laden. The Saudies have been able to buy off having to change or modernize or adapt because of oil profits, and its now biting US in the ass.
Now, whether or not the Bush admin is aware of it, being in Iraq we are now in the position to:
- Really put some thought into helping an Arab nation establish some sort of puralistic democracy, which itself would be a threat to every non-democratic regime in the middle east by its very existance, not to mention the side issue of yeah helping out the Iraqis.
2, the biggy - destabilize the price of oil, or more specifically, the price of oil as determined by Arab regimes. This is huge. Yes, we are going to benefit from cheaper oil. A side effect of that is that Arab regimes such as the Saudis, especially the Saudies, are going to be hurt by it.
- With an ongoing military presence in Iraq, our need for our bases in Saudi land and our need to look the other way when the Sauds pull crap is severely reduced.
So, the whole point being, we have this opportunity, now that we are in Iraq, to set in motion a chain of events that can lead to the Arab regimes being forced to modernize, being forced to inroduce more democracy and more reforms in their societies, partly by the presence of an even partly democratic and open society in their midst and partly through decreased oil revenues which allow them to get away with so much, and thus eventually defuse much of the anger against the US or at the least, redirect it to its rightful heirs; the Arab regimes themselves.
But, its going to take time, and its going to get worse before it gets better.