[QUOTE=BrainGlutton]
We could accomplish the same goal by putting them to work building a national high-speed rail network, and have something both worthwhile and sustainable when it’s done.
[/QUOTE]
Except that selling oil adds wealth to the system, and building a high-speed rail takes it away. High-speed rail does not operate at a profit. It would have to be subsidized. Drilling for oil adds funds to the U.S. treasury - building a train depletes them. And goes on depleting them after it’s built, for as long as it requires a subsidy. Or if you pay for it through transportation taxes, you are removing money from the economy that would rather have been spent on other things the public wants and needs, and put it towards building a really nice train.
This is a luxury, not an economic program.
But having the U.S. increase domestic production of oil bears many benefits. For one thing, it gives the U.S. more economic clout. All those countries it delivers oil to become somewhat tied to the U.S. Just as Russia is gaining political leverage through its increasingly strong control over European petroleum flows.
Second, it’s a big damn load of cash sitting in the ground, at a time when the U.S. appears to be coming under significant economic pressure. Not just the real estate crash, but the impending retirement of the baby boomers, which will take a lot of people out of the productive economy and cause retirement benefits and medicare costs to skyrocket. And it’s looking like the U.S. might be spending more money on the military in the future as the world gradually becomes more hostile. And energy costs are rising dramatically. This might just be a good time to look under the bed for some spare change, y’know?
At its peak production, ANWR would produce about 876,000 barrels a day in 2025. At $500/bbl, should oil be that high in 2025, ANWR would produce 438 million dollars in revenue a day, or about 160 billion dollars a year. That’s a lot of money to just throw away because you’re worried about despoiling some muskeg.
Or looked at another way: If ANWR holds 3.5 billion barrels of oil, which is the 95% estimate, you are putting a very high price on keeping that chunk of wilderness pristine. Even at $100/bbl, less than today’s prices, ANWR’s oil would be worth 350 billion dollars. The size of ANWR is limited to 2000 Acres, so you’re setting a price on the value of the pristine environment of 175 million dollars per acre. Not the price of the land - just the price representing the value of having temporary development on those acres. That’s more than 100 times more valuable than land in Manhattan.
Can you afford that luxury?
Now granted, not all of this comes back to the states as tax revenue. But a surprisingly large amount of the total money withdrawn from the ground remains in the U.S.
Here in Alberta, we have energy projects going big time, and you can really see the effect of this on economic growth everywhere. Not only are government coffers larger, but real estate is booming, the province is experiencing major immigration from across Canada, jobs are plentiful and high paying. And good jobs - Calgary is full of engineering firms. Edmonton as well. Had we not exploited our resources we would be a lot poorer today.
I can buy Xtisme’s argument for hanging onto ANWR as a strategic oil reserve. I’ve offered that argument myself. But if economic conditions are such that you can’t afford a big strategic reserve because you’re going broke now, sometimes you’ve gotta take the money and run.
I think offshore exploration is far more important. For one thing, this oil is far more vulnerable. People are jockeying for control of this oil now. China is exploring near the U.S. Other countries will be following suit. Expect territorial claims to be extended by Russia, backed by suitably hard diplomacy or outright threats. It’s important right now for the U.S. to get out on the ocean and start exploring its waters and finding out what’s there. Vulnerable fields near international waters or along disputed territorial lines can be claimed and exploited before others do. This makes sense to me.