Pretty sure you’re remembering wrong. I think he just said Canada would be the first border opened not that he was planning on it soon.
Think he wants normal only with less mass killings. Or more. Not sure.
Then, until we get an effective vaccine, we should expect periodic waves of severe morbidity and mortality.
We can choose to try and mitigate the effects of the pandemic, or we can let hundreds of thousands to millions of people die. Those are the choices.
There will likely be waves of infection but you have no authority to pronounce their severity. And yes, we have to accept that because waiting for a vaccine simply isn’t an option.
Let’s first be clear: the proposed guidelines of this thread do NOT include using antibody testing results as a passport (for jobs or whatever). These proposed guidelines do not explicitly mention antibody testing at all. The idea of using an immunity passport has been floated by top level decision makers in some countries and Fauci had described the idea as “something that’s being discussed … under certain circumstances” - but it did not make it into the proposed guideline.
Antibody testing is a critical *population *metric to give one of the key critical inputs that the models need to give predictions that anyone should have any confidence in. And perhaps those with evidence of past infection and presumptive immunity would be the best choices for positions that are most likely to have contact with the most vulnerable, keeping those who might yet become infected, possibly asymptomatically so, in positions less likely to expose those at highest risk. But agreed that you do not want to create a perverse incentive to become infected in order to be able to work.
Manda JO - typical time course, which no individual may follow (some faster some slower) but population metrics are likely to reflect, is 5 to 6 days from infection to symptoms and identification as COVID19-like at least fairly soon after that, another 5 to 10 days to clinical worsening with potential hospitalization, peak ICU admission rate day 14. On a population wide basis a change which was going to result in a huge resurgence would NOT be having continued drops in all of numbers of syndromic cases (COVID19-like and ILI), and of documented cases, and of positive results as a share of total tests over the 14 days. By day 10 one or more of those would stop dropping and start moving up. Hospitalization and ICU rates might lag a few days more and death rate another week, but the guideline is not proposing those as the metrics other than having documented capacity to handle a new surge if one was to occur. I would not argue against an extra level of caution with three weeks as the interval with the threshold of maintaining hospitalization and ICU admissions due to COVID19 under a certain threshold as well, but neither would I argue for it IF the ability to have believable data on all the other metrics the guideline’s gates require are in place and met.
El_Kabong - Texas would have to have already started dropping in number of new cases per day to qualify to get through the proposed guideline’s gate on May 1, which has not occurred. They’d have to meet the other gate qualifications which I have not bothered to check on but am fairly confident in my guess that they have not. Specific to your museum and its being staffed by a more vulnerable population - the guideline states that vulnerable individuals (elderly and/or various health conditions) should continue to shelter in place through phase two and even in phase three (whenever eventually actually hit) maintain physical distancing when in public.
Honestly my guess is that when the governor’s decide to start to gradually let off the brake they will be LESS stringent that these guidelines suggest being.
SuperAbe no question that we should “choose to try and mitigate the effects of the pandemic” - your confident declaration of what such requires is however meritless. Maybe instead of listening to you we should listen to what the disease tells us by its response to changes in policy in real time and to the critical data as it finally comes in?
I appreciate this and all responses and am attempting to digest them and, again, I am also trying to look at this without a political lens.
But take Fauci. He’s not some guy working on an assembly line that needs his job to support his family. He is 79 years old and I would assume financially stable and could very easily say fuck it all and retire to fish or visit with the grandkids. Assume he didn’t want to do that and shared the opinions of the majority of this thread and thought Trump’s plan was terrible and would likely kill many more people.
Well, Fauci is in a good “fuck you” position. He doesn’t need the job. He doesn’t need Trump. If he felt the way many in this thread do, why not resign and go on the speaking circuit and go on the news programs and tell everyone how ridiculously dangerous this plan is and how terribly Trump is handling it?
He could do far better (in this hypo) by not being constrained by Trump and speaking to the whole world. He would have any platform he wanted.
LOL
The iDJoT made a “plan”.
ROLF
I wish the US luck, you’ll need it.
If he did that half the country would disregard him as a partisan hack. Trump would attack him as a fake news shill. Hannity would spread conspiracies about him.
He’s playing the game to get a wider audience: the people who will listen to him regardless (liberals) plus those who will only listen to him if he’s on team Trump (conservatives).
Well right on cue, this just came across my FB feed from an acquaintance who’s becoming increasingly nutty over this COVID situation. Anthony Fauci, the Learned Ignoramus. Let the attacks on science continue.
Quoted for truth. This can’t be stressed enough, but the federal government and the squealing morons would rather speculate than listen to science. I had a neighbor talk to me the other day. After exchanging pleasantries and howyadoins, he (an educated guy) asked me “So, you think maybe another month?” I stared at him in disbelief and told him basically what you said upstream. Without widespread testing and a reliable vaccine, we are doomed to reignite this disaster with far worse consequences. Yeah, people are gonna suffer financially, and oh dear no ice cream or lattes yet, but death is pretty final.
So you go along with something that will kill tens of thousands so you won’t be accused of being a partisan hack? And why would he give a hard whore’s fuck about being accused of being a partisan hack? Again, fishing…grandkids.
I mean, if he protested this, Trump rejected his advice, and Fauci afterwards went along with it. And if that is his role, and he hates it, why keep doing it? When do you “do good” if you continue to “do bad”?
IOW, why would a guy that wants to do what is “right” stay in a situation where it is apparent that he will be wholly unable to have his opinion respected?
“Science” didn’t tell us the only way to start up again. You are the one living in a dream world. A vaccine is not promised to us and 18 months is too long to wait even if it was. We should be careful but return to work is happening before a vaccine. This is beyond question.
What Would happen, economically and socially if lockdown was kept for six more months?
Sounds like here in Texas we’re going to open state parks on Monday, limited nonemergent surgeries will start to be allowed as long as it doesn’t deplete supplies for emergencies, and “retail pickup” will be allowed. More loosenings to be announced April 27. Schools will stay closed to the end of the academic year, not just until May 4 as was previously planned.
If we could have guessed six months ago what NOW would be like, we might have some idea of what to expect in six months, what our October Surprise might be. My Magic 8-Ball isn’t working so I won’t speculate except that fewer will die with SIP than without.
I’m sure it will be exactly like the last time we had a 6 month lockdown.
Looks like the plan has been accelerated and now the administration’s plan is to encourage protests in order to “liberate” the states.
Encouraging protests against state Covid-19 policies is extremely foolish. That’s going to put the blame squarely on the WH if the virus numbers drastically escalate.
The protests themselves will be a breeding ground for the virus.
There won’t be any way to dispute those tweets.
It seems more absurd to think that people are going to start going out to restaurants and movies if it means a ~1% chance of dying in the next few months.
There’s this idea that the shutdown of restaurants and hotels and bars and sporting events is due to a state edict, and all we need to do is convince the governors to lift restrictions and people will come out and play again. That is wrong. South Dakota hasn’t issued a stay at home order, but meatpacking plants are closing because their employees are getting sick. The tourism-based economy has collapsed. Unemployment claims have spiked just like they have everywhere else.
People are staying home because they are afraid of getting sick! Realistically, most shutdown orders come/came within a few days of everyone staying home for their own reasons. It’s almost as silly for Trump to talk about opening up the economy (he really has no enumerated powers here) as it is for governors to talk about it. I don’t care what my governor says. I’m not going to public place until I see cases drop precipitously and I can drop by a testing center for a 20-minute $20 covid test, and reliably pick up a few bottles of cheap hand sanitizer while I’m at it. And neither are most other people.
The way to open up the economy is to solve the real demand for public health goods and services and make people feel safe.
That said, there are certainly restrictions that could be lifted. There’s no reason to close outdoor spaces if people aren’t crowding them. Allowing pickup of any retail goods following hygiene and distancing practices seems likely to be low risk. Etc.
That was then, this is now. If you think people won’t start going to restaurants, sure in lower numbers at first, you must know very different humans than me. People aren’t going to be this scared for very long. This isn’t the zombie apocalypse.
There will not be a 1% chance of dying in the next few months. That isn’t supported by even your 1% fatality rate guess.