U.S. Government releases three phase plan to return to normalcy..

[DSeid]

I refer you to my first post in this thread.

And done wasting time with you.

[RTFirefly]

@asahi

I admit that I’m not a mind reader, but I don’t think Fauci’s really on board. He looks worn down and it seemed like he was eager to avoid taking questions and it didn’t seem like Trump wanted him taking too many questions, either.

He’s reputedly in very good shape for a 79 year old man. But he’s still 79, and he’s said he finds these lengthy Trump pressers to be tiring to sit through.

[RTFirefly]

@DSeid

So to put a range on it - IF the numbers get to a point of documented about the same on going risk for the behavior in question as going out during influenza season would you be willing to go out?

I’m not sure how one could begin to quantify that, even. I guess we could quantify the risk of catching one v. the other, but that’s just the start of it - got to factor in risk of death, and risk and extent of possible permanent health consequences, all of which we’re still just starting to get a handle on. It’s like trying to take an integral when we’re still figuring out what the curve looks like.

[CarnalK]

I thought that was the point of the question. If this turns into a “bad flu” type virus, will you be willing to go out?

How many people actually know the chance of death or permanent damage from the flu though? Before this year, I would have bet 1 in 20 max.

[DSeid]

For a second don’t fight the hypothetical RTF.

Of course the hypothetical is going with risk of death and quantifiable morbidity. If information comes in that those who have resolved from this are as a consequence worse, or less worse off, than those who resolve from influenza, or a host of other diseases that share similar pathophysiology in severe cases, then it would have to be factored in.

Ongoing weekly death rate and hospitalization rate/prevalence (to account not only for admission but length of illness), are the most reasonable proxies that exist. Add in ICU numbers if you want.

[enipla]

@Chefguy

Quoted for truth. This can’t be stressed enough, but the federal government and the squealing morons would rather speculate than listen to science. I had a neighbor talk to me the other day. After exchanging pleasantries and howyadoins, he (an educated guy) asked me “So, you think maybe another month?” I stared at him in disbelief and told him basically what you said upstream. Without widespread testing and a reliable vaccine, we are doomed to reignite this disaster with far worse consequences. Yeah, people are gonna suffer financially, and oh dear no ice cream or lattes yet, but death is pretty final.

Yep.

I’m a lucky one in that I think my job is secure and I can work from home. But every bartender and waitress (just as examples) are going to be in a world of hurt real soon if they are not already.

I DON’T recommend ‘re-opening’ any time soon. Dammed if we do dammed if we don’t. The stimulus checks will help a very, very little bit.

What I haven’t heard anything about is literally trying to help people keep the lights on for people that will not be able to afford their electric bill. Are people gonna stay home when they are cut off? Are they going to get their power shut off? Not just of light and heat, but information.

I wonder if power companies are gonna need a bail out. What we should do is make sure they can keep the lights on for everyone, even those that can’t pay the bill, or we will have riots in the streets.

[CarnalK]

You don’t see how your post clashes with Chefguy’s? You note people won’t be able to pay for electricity, he’s mocking people for missing their ice cream and lattes. 22M people applied for unemployment the past 4 weeks. You and Chefguy think they’ll survive without their ice cream for 18 months, when we are absolutely guaranteed to have a reliable vaccine?