# U.S. House of Representatives elections 2012 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 21, 2012, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-house-of-representatives-elections-2012/610255 "2012-01-21T23:26:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2012, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-house-of-representatives-elections-2012/610255/1 "2012-01-21T23:26:17Z")
[Lotta retirements this cycle (18 Dems, 13 Pubs).](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2012) Any chance the elections will swing the House back to the Dems? ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-house-of-representatives-elections-2012/610255/2 "2012-01-22T00:46:36Z")
Very little. Best bet is that the Ds take some of the seats back that they lost in 2010 and shrink the R majority significantly. In the Senate I’d say something close to 50-50 is the most likely outcome. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-house-of-representatives-elections-2012/610255/3 "2012-01-22T20:36:44Z")
[Gabby Giffords is retiring too, now.](http://www.people.com/people/article/0,,20563761,00.html) One less Dem incumbent. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-house-of-representatives-elections-2012/610255/4 "2012-01-22T21:15:19Z")
> [@](#): > > Gabby Giffords is retiring too, now. One less Dem incumbent. Given the circumstances leading to her retirement, though, I would expect her constituents to be sympathetic to the idea of replacing her with another Democrat. And there have been an awful lot of Republican politicians making themselves awfully unpopular lately… I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Democrats take back the House. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-house-of-representatives-elections-2012/610255/5 "2012-01-22T21:51:04Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Given the circumstances leading to her retirement, though, I would expect her constituents to be sympathetic to the idea of replacing her with another Democrat. Yes, it’s not often a politician can honestly claim to have been wounded in the line of duty. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-house-of-representatives-elections-2012/610255/6 "2012-01-22T23:33:29Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Given the circumstances leading to her retirement, though, I would expect her constituents to be sympathetic to the idea of replacing her with another Democrat. > > And there have been an awful lot of Republican politicians making themselves awfully unpopular lately… I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Democrats take back the House. Their advantage is too big, the Republicans will likely lose a significant amount of seats but not nearly enough to lose the house. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2012, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-house-of-representatives-elections-2012/610255/7 "2012-01-23T02:05:14Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > Their advantage is too big, the Republicans will likely lose a significant amount of seats but not nearly enough to lose the house. Right now, this looks like the most likely scenario. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2012, 10:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-house-of-representatives-elections-2012/610255/8 "2012-01-23T10:38:23Z")
I think the OWSers, if they were to solidly commit to getting Dems elected, could have a positive effect. I don’t know if they’re going to do that, but I’m sure they’re going to do something this year. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2012, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-house-of-representatives-elections-2012/610255/9 "2012-01-23T14:42:28Z")
Let me be the first to predict a Democratic landslide in 2012. A boatload of the Teahadists elected in 2010 were from districts that Obama won in 2008. If Obama runs against Gingrich, his coattails will be enough to get rid of most of those freshmen. Republican obstructionism will end up biting them in the ass this year. Give the gavel back to Nancy Pelosi, matter of fact you can surgically attach it to her. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2012, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-house-of-representatives-elections-2012/610255/10 "2012-01-23T15:22:48Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > Their advantage is too big, the Republicans will likely lose a significant amount of seats but not nearly enough to lose the house. The Democrats had an even bigger majority in 2009 than the Republican have today. 63 seats flipped to Republicans in 2010. If 25 seats flip back to the Democrats, Nancy Pelosi is speaker of the house again. I don’t see why its so out of the realm of possibility. I also happen to think the Democrats can keep the senate and Mitch McConnell will be more reasonable. > [@BrainGlutton](#): > > I think the OWSers, if they were to solidly commit to getting Dems elected, could have a positive effect. I don’t know if they’re going to do that, but I’m sure they’re going to do something this year. I think the Democrats underestimate the OWS and the youth vote generally, just like the Republicans have overestimated the Tea Party and the John Bircher vote generally. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2012, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-house-of-representatives-elections-2012/610255/11 "2012-01-23T23:42:24Z")
> [@](#): > > Their advantage is too big, the Republicans will likely lose a significant amount of seats but not nearly enough to lose the house. The Republicans can certainly be said to have an advantage in the Senate, given that most of the seats up this cycle are Democrats. But in the House, where _everyone_ has to run for re-election, I don’t see how either party can have an advantage. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2012, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-house-of-representatives-elections-2012/610255/12 "2012-01-23T23:57:43Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > I think the Democrats underestimate the OWS and the youth vote generally, just like the Republicans have overestimated the Tea Party and the John Bircher vote generally. Birchers?! Are **they** still around?! ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2012, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-house-of-representatives-elections-2012/610255/13 "2012-01-24T02:17:38Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Birchers?! Are **they** still around?! The JBS was a co-sponsor of the 2010 Conservative Political Action Conference, ending its decades-long exile from the mainstream conservative movement. > **[John Birch Society](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Birch_Society#2009.E2.80.93present)** > > The John Birch Society (JBS) is an American right-wing political advocacy group. Founded in 1958, it is anti-communist, supports social conservatism, and is associated with ultraconservative, radical right, far-right, right-wing populist, and right-wing libertarian ideas. Originally based in Belmont, Massachusetts, the JBS is now headquartered in Grand Chute, Wisconsin, with local chapters throughout the United States. It owns American Opinion Publishing, Inc., which publis The society's found... They came back with the Tea Party. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-house-of-representatives-elections-2012/610255/14 "2012-01-25T19:35:43Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Let me be the first to predict a Democratic landslide in 2012. A boatload of the Teahadists elected in 2010 were from districts that Obama won in 2008. If Obama runs against Gingrich, his coattails will be enough to get rid of most of those freshmen. Republican obstructionism will end up biting them in the ass this year. Give the gavel back to Nancy Pelosi, matter of fact you can surgically attach it to her. So with the Obama vs. TeaBaggers in 2012, suppose a fair number of centrist Republicans decide to run. 1. Can they win the primaries or would the Reps vote for right-wing as usual? 2. Could they win in a general election? 3. Could we have our second ever [coalition House](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1848) or even a [Speaker from the minority party](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1838)? ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-house-of-representatives-elections-2012/610255/15 "2012-01-25T19:39:17Z")
Retracted. ---
**Author:** ![Skammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skammer/32/143_2.png) [@Skammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skammer)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-house-of-representatives-elections-2012/610255/16 "2012-01-25T19:45:16Z")
Due to redistricting, I was moved from a Democratic congressional district (Nashville/Davidson County) to a Republican one. I don’t really have a point I guess I just wanted to bitch about it. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-house-of-representatives-elections-2012/610255/17 "2012-01-25T20:07:00Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > So with the Obama vs. TeaBaggers in 2012, suppose a fair number of centrist Republicans decide to run. > > 1. Can they win the primaries or would the Reps vote for right-wing as usual? > 2. Could they win in a general election? > 3. Could we have our second ever [coalition House](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1848) or even a [Speaker from the minority party](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1838)? Interesting questions. It may be that some centrist Pubbies take on some of the right wing Freshman Rs. If they do: 1- No, I think the right wingers would always take the more extremists of the pair. Anything remotely centrist in the Republican Party is dwarfed by the energy of the right. 2- If they could survive the primary, they might keep the seat in party hands. But that’s a big if. 3- No, we’ll never see a coaltion since the Teabaggers would always caucus with the Rs. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-house-of-representatives-elections-2012/610255/18 "2012-01-25T20:28:54Z")
There’s a fairly acrimonious fight going on in Oregon for David Wu’s seat. The Republican might have had a chance except that he ducked paying taxes and paying his employees. He keeps crowing about being a job creator (god, I hate that term) who created 500 jobs. Turns out he had six employees. So basically he’s a liar and a cheat. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2012, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-house-of-representatives-elections-2012/610255/19 "2012-01-26T01:10:49Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > The Republicans can certainly be said to have an advantage in the Senate, given that most of the seats up this cycle are Democrats. But in the House, where _everyone_ has to run for re-election, I don’t see how either party can have an advantage. > [@BobLibDem](#): > > Let me be the first to predict a Democratic landslide in 2012. A boatload of the Teahadists elected in 2010 were from districts that Obama won in 2008. If Obama runs against Gingrich, his coattails will be enough to get rid of most of those freshmen. Republican obstructionism will end up biting them in the ass this year. Give the gavel back to Nancy Pelosi, matter of fact you can surgically attach it to her. While normally your analyses would be correct, the pernicious and shameless gerrymandering that the GOP has been practicing might very well save their ass even if Obama runs the table. Ohio even if the statewide popular vote for the house is 55:45 Obama, the GOP might still retain a 7-5 edge in seats. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2012, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-house-of-representatives-elections-2012/610255/20 "2012-01-26T01:35:17Z")
> [@John\_DiFool](#): > > While normally your analyses would be correct, the pernicious and shameless gerrymandering that the GOP has been practicing might very well save their ass even if Obama runs the table. Ohio even if the statewide popular vote for the house is 55:45 Obama, the GOP might still retain a 7-5 edge in seats. Gerrymandering is the tool of the devil. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-house-of-representatives-elections-2012/610255.md?page=2)