# U.S. intercepts capture senior Russian officials celebrating Trump win.

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-intercepts-capture-senior-russian-officials-celebrating-trump-win/776441>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [January 6, 2017, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-intercepts-capture-senior-russian-officials-celebrating-trump-win/776441 "2017-01-06T03:08:55Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 7

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**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2017, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-intercepts-capture-senior-russian-officials-celebrating-trump-win/776441/121 "2017-01-07T17:27:43Z")

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> [@asahi](#):
>
> Practically every single intelligence gathering agency has formed a consensus on this issue. What is it that you know that somehow people who spend 10 hours or more per day investigating this don’t?

The only thing I _know_ that’s relevant to this discussion is that sometimes those people who spend 10+ hours per day investigating get it wrong. I don’t claim any special insider knowledge. For entirely understandable reasons, those intelligence gathering agencies don’t want to share their evidence, but that fact, and their previous track record, make it difficult for me to just have blind faith in them and the results of their investigation. Call it a healthy skepticism.

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**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2017, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-intercepts-capture-senior-russian-officials-celebrating-trump-win/776441/122 "2017-01-07T17:32:47Z")

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> [@HurricaneDitka](#):
>
> The only thing I _know_ that’s relevant to this discussion is that sometimes those people who spend 10+ hours per day investigating get it wrong. I don’t claim any special insider knowledge. For entirely understandable reasons, those intelligence gathering agencies don’t want to share their evidence, but that fact, and their previous track record, make it difficult for me to just have blind faith in them and the results of their investigation. Call it a healthy skepticism.

Is there any reason, in your mind, for Americans to trust anything intelligence agencies say, past, present or future?

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**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2017, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-intercepts-capture-senior-russian-officials-celebrating-trump-win/776441/123 "2017-01-07T17:37:34Z")

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> [@Snarky\_Kong](#):
>
> No they didn’t. They disagreed with him saying Russia was our number 1 foreign policy foe.
> 
> Which still isn’t true, btw. They’re getting a lot of press now, but Russia isn’t challenging American global dominance anytime soon.

Here is the [actual debate transcript](http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=october-22-2012-the-third-obama-romney-presidential-debate). I’ve tried to quote the relevant bits:

> [@](#):
>
> OBAMA: Governor Romney, I’m glad that you recognize that Al Qaida is a threat, because a few months ago when you were asked what’s the biggest geopolitical threat facing America, you said Russia, not Al Qaida; you said Russia, in the 1980s, they’re now calling to ask for their foreign policy back because, you know, the Cold War’s been over for 20 years.
> 
> But Governor, when it comes to our foreign policy, you seem to want to import the foreign policies of the 1980s, just like the social policies of the 1950s and the economic policies of the 1920s.
> 
> …
> 
> ROMNEY: Well, of course I don’t concur with what the president said about my own record and the things that I’ve said. They don’t happen to be accurate. But – but I can say this, that we’re talking about the Middle East and how to help the Middle East reject the kind of terrorism we’re seeing, and the rising tide of tumult and – and confusion. And – and attacking me is not an agenda. Attacking me is not talking about how we’re going to deal with the challenges that exist in the Middle East, and take advantage of the opportunity there, and stem the tide of this violence.
> 
> But I’ll respond to a couple of things that you mentioned. First of all, Russia I indicated is a geopolitical foe. Not…
> 
> (CROSSTALK)
> 
> ROMNEY: Excuse me. It’s a geopolitical foe, and I said in the same – in the same paragraph I said, and Iran is the greatest national security threat we face. Russia does continue to battle us in the U.N. time and time again. I have clear eyes on this. I’m not going to wear rose-colored glasses when it comes to Russia, or Mr. Putin. And I’m certainly not going to say to him, I’ll give you more flexibility after the election. After the election, he’ll get more backbone.

Just curious, **Snarky\_Kong** who / what would you say is our greatest geopolitical threat today?

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**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2017, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-intercepts-capture-senior-russian-officials-celebrating-trump-win/776441/124 "2017-01-07T17:43:50Z")

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> [@QuickSilver](#):
>
> Is there any reason, in your mind, for Americans to trust anything intelligence agencies say, past, present or future?

Sure. If, for example, they were to tell me that they think there’s a high likelihood that there will be a terrorist attack in downtown SLC tomorrow, it costs me very little to avoid that area tomorrow and I’d almost certainly do so. Would that count as ‘trusting’ them? I think so.

If, on the other hand, they wanted to lock you up in Guantanamo Bay for the rest of your life (assuming you’re an American citizen, which I don’t know for a fact either way) because they claimed you’re a terrorist, I’d prefer that they produce actual evidence before we do that.

ETA: Just curious, have you seen any of the show ‘Designated Survivor’? I just started watching it and see some parallels to this discussion.

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**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2017, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-intercepts-capture-senior-russian-officials-celebrating-trump-win/776441/125 "2017-01-07T17:47:38Z")

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> [@HurricaneDitka](#):
>
> Here is the [actual debate transcript](http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=october-22-2012-the-third-obama-romney-presidential-debate). I’ve tried to quote the relevant bits:
> 
> Just curious, **Snarky\_Kong** who / what would you say is our **greatest geopolitical threat today**?

What does that have to do with what was said over 4 years ago?

Was Russia as big a threat then as they are now?

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**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2017, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-intercepts-capture-senior-russian-officials-celebrating-trump-win/776441/126 "2017-01-07T17:54:50Z")

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> [@](#):
>
> …what would you say is our greatest geopolitical threat today?

Yes, let’s definitely change the subject. And while we’re about it, those goal posts need to be realigned! As it stands, they are too close, a mere consensus of expert and experienced persons. That should be absitively and posolutely proven truth, beyond a shadow of a doubt! An affidavit from God Almighty countersigned by the Archangel Gabriel is suggestive, but not definitive.

After all, its possible that it was the Chinese, or Gabon, or Upper Volta! Or, as Il Douche himself posited, some four hundred pound kid in his Mom’s basement! And because those things are possible, they must get due consideration!

OK, I will. (tic, tic, tic…)

I’m done, how about you?

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**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2017, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-intercepts-capture-senior-russian-officials-celebrating-trump-win/776441/127 "2017-01-07T17:55:24Z")

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> [@running\_coach](#):
>
> What does that have to do with what was said over 4 years ago?
> 
> Was Russia as big a threat then as they are now?

My question for **Snarky\_Kong** was just a curiosity. I don’t claim that his answer / non-answer would have anything to do with Romney’s 2012 wisdom.

As for your second question: Putin was Russia’s President then, just like he is today. I don’t think they were significantly less of a threat during the Romney-Obama debates than they are now, but now Putin’s had four years of events and activities to make that clear. I think ‘prescient’ is the word I’d use to describe Romney’s 2012 view of Russia.

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**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2017, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-intercepts-capture-senior-russian-officials-celebrating-trump-win/776441/128 "2017-01-07T17:59:10Z")

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The biggest threat to America is Americans. The biggest geopolitical threat is China.

Russia has a GDP smaller than California and a shitty economy reliant on oil prices. If 200,000 Americans were smarter this November nobody would be talking about how they’re a threat.

China has a large, broad-based economy, expanding alliances through the world, flexing their muscle in their near abroad, A2/AD tech that counters the US military, massive cyber capability.

They’re currently less antagonistic than Russia, but they’re potentially a challenger, Russia is not.

Thank you for the quote, btw. Yes, Obama was, publicly at least, less concerned with Russia than he should have been. Although Ukraine hadn’t had their revolution yet, which Putin blamed on the US and made him more antagonistic towards the US. So at the time he said it, it was less incorrect than it is now.

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**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2017, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-intercepts-capture-senior-russian-officials-celebrating-trump-win/776441/129 "2017-01-07T18:01:23Z")

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Martians. It was definitely Martians. Good ol’ Vlad would never do such a thing.  
The Martians are getting fed up with this country dropping Earth germ laden laser totin’ robots on them!

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**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2017, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-intercepts-capture-senior-russian-officials-celebrating-trump-win/776441/130 "2017-01-07T18:05:53Z")

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> [@HurricaneDitka](#):
>
> My question for **Snarky\_Kong** was just a curiosity. I don’t claim that his answer / non-answer would have anything to do with Romney’s 2012 wisdom.
> 
> As for your second question: Putin was Russia’s President then, just like he is today. I don’t think they were significantly less of a threat during the Romney-Obama debates than they are now, but now Putin’s had four years of events and activities to make that clear. I think ‘prescient’ is the word I’d use to describe Romney’s 2012 view of Russia.

Think of it as Putin being an open carry advocate in the Walmart. He’s got a rifle on his back and is just walking around smug as can be. Is he the number one threat in the store? No, because there are some kids shoplifting in the back.

Now, however, our open carry advocate is bringing his rife to his shoulder and telling people to get away from the condoms, because sinning is wrong. He’s now the most important threat in the store.

Putin just attacked us, so that elevates his threat level.

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**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2017, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-intercepts-capture-senior-russian-officials-celebrating-trump-win/776441/131 "2017-01-07T18:10:48Z")

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> [@Snarky\_Kong](#):
>
> If 200,000 Americans were smarter this November nobody would be talking about how they’re a threat.

True, screaming about Russia being a threat is clearly a political argument being used as a weapon against Trump. If Hillary won, all else being equal including the “intelligence assessments”, it would be kept on down low.

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**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2017, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-intercepts-capture-senior-russian-officials-celebrating-trump-win/776441/132 "2017-01-07T18:17:04Z")

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> [@Okrahoma](#):
>
> True, screaming about Russia being a threat is clearly a political argument being used as a weapon against Trump. If Hillary won, all else being equal including the “intelligence assessments”, it would be kept on down low.

No, it would just be a lower priority because we wouldn’t have a Russian puppet as POTUS.

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**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2017, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-intercepts-capture-senior-russian-officials-celebrating-trump-win/776441/133 "2017-01-07T18:28:01Z")

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> [@Snarky\_Kong](#):
>
> If 200,000 Americans were smarter this November nobody would be talking about how they’re a threat.

Totally disagree, but the issue would have a different tenor to it because I think everyone can agree that Clinton wouldn’t be denying that Russia conducted cyber attacks to screw with our election. She would probably be seeking to either continue, or perhaps expand, the sanctions that Obama placed on Russia.

Keep in mind that the new intelligence report says that Russia was preparing a new campaign to denigrate American democracy if Clinton won. They were evidently planning to continue these cyber operations if Clinton had won, somthe idea that the whole thing would have blown over seems to be in contradiction of what we now know.

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**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2017, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-intercepts-capture-senior-russian-officials-celebrating-trump-win/776441/134 "2017-01-07T20:09:21Z")

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> [@HurricaneDitka](#):
>
> Sure. If, for example, they were to tell me that they think there’s a high likelihood that there will be a terrorist attack in downtown SLC tomorrow, it costs me very little to avoid that area tomorrow and I’d almost certainly do so. Would that count as ‘trusting’ them? I think so.

But if they told you Russia was planning a cyber attack to shut down the North East power grid, you’d remain skeptical?

> [@HurricaneDitka](#):
>
> If, on the other hand, they wanted to lock you up in Guantanamo Bay for the rest of your life (assuming you’re an American citizen, which I don’t know for a fact either way) because they claimed you’re a terrorist, I’d prefer that they produce actual evidence before we do that.

What kind of evidence would you accept? A picture of my passport? Birth certificate? Being a skeptic, why would you trust their “proof”?

> [@HurricaneDitka](#):
>
> ETA: Just curious, have you seen any of the show ‘Designated Survivor’? I just started watching it and see some parallels to this discussion.

I have not. I’ll look it up.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2017, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-intercepts-capture-senior-russian-officials-celebrating-trump-win/776441/135 "2017-01-07T20:16:12Z")

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> [@QuickSilver](#):
>
> I have not. I’ll look it up.

[QUOTE=Wikipedia]  
Plot (Designated Survivor):  
On the night of the State of the Union address, an explosion claims the lives of the President and all members of his Cabinet except for U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Tom Kirkman, who has been named the designated survivor. Kirkman is immediately sworn in as President, unaware that the attack is just the beginning of what is to come.  
[/QUOTE]

I wonder if Ben Carson is watching the show?

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2017, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-intercepts-capture-senior-russian-officials-celebrating-trump-win/776441/136 "2017-01-07T20:46:36Z")

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James Earl Jones, _The Man_

> **[The Man (1972 film)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Man_(1972_film))**
>
> The Man is a 1972 American political drama film directed by Joseph Sargent and starring James Earl Jones. Jones plays Douglass Dilman, the President pro tempore of the United States Senate, who succeeds to the presidency through a series of unforeseeable events, thereby becoming both the first African-American president and the first wholly unelected one. The screenplay, written by Rod Serling, is largely based upon The Man, a novel by Irving Wallace. In addition to being the first black When the...

Script by Rod Serling, from a book by Irving Wallace. What could possibly go right?

(Your correspondent from the conservative wing of the extreme left advises that this is not an endorsement. If I can still remember how I hated it, it must have _really_ bit the bag…)

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2017, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-intercepts-capture-senior-russian-officials-celebrating-trump-win/776441/137 "2017-01-07T22:10:45Z")

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> [@QuickSilver](#):
>
> But if they told you Russia was planning a cyber attack to shut down the North East power grid, you’d remain skeptical?

Is it the [Washington Post reporting the story](http://www.forbes.com/sites/kalevleetaru/2017/01/01/fake-news-and-how-the-washington-post-rewrote-its-story-on-russian-hacking-of-the-power-grid/#3708a6c9291e)? If so, yes, I’m skeptical.

> [@QuickSilver](#):
>
> What kind of evidence would you accept? A picture of my passport? Birth certificate? Being a skeptic, why would you trust their “proof”?

I don’t want / need any evidence on your citizenship. If you say you are, that’s good enough for purposes of this discussion because it doesn’t make any material difference one way or the other. I wasn’t trying to cast doubt on it or anything, just didn’t want to be “assuming your nationality” and be wrong. If you want to run for president, it might be nice to see the evidence.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![drad\_dog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@drad\_dog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drad_dog)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2017, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-intercepts-capture-senior-russian-officials-celebrating-trump-win/776441/138 "2017-01-07T22:15:00Z")

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> [@Snarky\_Kong](#):
>
> The biggest threat to America is Americans. The biggest geopolitical threat is China.
> 
> Russia has a GDP smaller than California and a shitty economy reliant on oil prices. If 200,000 Americans were smarter this November nobody would be talking about how they’re a threat.
> 
> China has a large, broad-based economy, expanding alliances through the world, flexing their muscle in their near abroad, A2/AD tech that counters the US military, massive cyber capability.
> 
> They’re currently less antagonistic than Russia, but they’re potentially a challenger, Russia is not.
> 
> Thank you for the quote, btw. Yes, Obama was, publicly at least, less concerned with Russia than he should have been. Although Ukraine hadn’t had their revolution yet, which Putin blamed on the US and made him more antagonistic towards the US. So at the time he said it, it was less incorrect than it is now.

? Russia can be a very plausible medium for a threat of damage to america by americans, the way it’s looking right now.

Russia also has a greater GDP than Isis.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2017, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-intercepts-capture-senior-russian-officials-celebrating-trump-win/776441/139 "2017-01-07T22:20:49Z")

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> [@drad\_dog](#):
>
> Russia also has a greater GDP than Isis.

And ISIS is a minuscule threat to the US. The priorities of the US with regards to terrorism is wildly out of balance.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![drad\_dog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@drad\_dog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drad_dog)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2017, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-intercepts-capture-senior-russian-officials-celebrating-trump-win/776441/140 "2017-01-07T23:21:13Z")

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> [@Snarky\_Kong](#):
>
> And ISIS is a minuscule threat to the US. The priorities of the US with regards to terrorism is wildly out of balance.

Tell donnie and his minions. I already voted and I lost.

I don’t know that I would fetishize “big” and “strong” and “GDP” as the criteria for dangerous. There is such a thing as assymetrical war. In fact that’s the current reality much more so than the opposite.

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