# U.S. Senate Elections Thread (and House too, if you want) **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 5, 2008, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-elections-thread-and-house-too-if-you-want/471198 "2008-11-05T04:05:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![gigi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a587f6/32.png) [@gigi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gigi)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-elections-thread-and-house-too-if-you-want/471198/21 "2008-11-05T18:41:03Z")
Sorry for the hijack, but I missed what will happen in Obama’s and Biden’s states, where they were re-elected. Is another election held, or are there people in line to take their spots? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-elections-thread-and-house-too-if-you-want/471198/22 "2008-11-05T18:50:02Z")
In Illinois our Governor appoints a replacement and there have been threads speculating on who that might be. Jesse Jackson Jr is getting some of the media buzz and others named include Tammy Duckworth, Jan Schakowsky, Luis Gutierrez, Emil Jones, or even Lisa Madigan (as if she’d take it instead of his job). I don’t know about DE. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-elections-thread-and-house-too-if-you-want/471198/23 "2008-11-05T18:55:47Z")
Well having searched a little the Dem governor appoints. One speculation is that a c aretaker gets appointed to hold the spot until Beau Biden gets back from Iraq and runs. Sounds like a reasonable guess. ---
**Author:** ![UTejas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/977dab/32.png) [@UTejas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UTejas)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-elections-thread-and-house-too-if-you-want/471198/24 "2008-11-05T19:13:54Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > snip > > 1. Alaska, where there’s all sorts of questions. First, is Ted Stevens the winner of the election? He seems to be, but I don’t think anyone’s called it, and I’m not sure why. His margin is only a few thousand votes, but that’s out of ~200K votes, so that’s nontrivial. > > If he’s won, the real question is what happens next. Presumably the incoming Senate refuses to let him be seated, Alaska has a special election for the vacant seat, Mark Begich runs again for the Dems, and the GOP nominates someone other than Ted Stevens. > > Possibly Sarah Palin runs; weirder things have happened. Yes, the incoming Senate will deal with the matter, but likely not until his appeals have been exhausted. I doubt they’d refuse to seat him/expel him until that happens. There’s also the great theoretical question of if the Senate would still expel/refuse to seat him if Bush pardons him. ---
**Author:** ![gigi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a587f6/32.png) [@gigi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gigi)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-elections-thread-and-house-too-if-you-want/471198/25 "2008-11-05T19:23:06Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Well having searched a little the Dem governor appoints. One speculation is that a c aretaker gets appointed to hold the spot until Beau Biden gets back from Iraq and runs. Sounds like a reasonable guess. Thank you for doing my work for me. :o 😉 ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-elections-thread-and-house-too-if-you-want/471198/26 "2008-11-05T20:59:58Z")
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that [there will be a Dec. 2 runoff](http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/stories/2008/11/04/georgia_us_senate_election.html) for Chambliss’ Senate seat. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-elections-thread-and-house-too-if-you-want/471198/27 "2008-11-05T21:39:54Z")
Merkley’s gonna win in Oregon. [Look at this map](http://www.oregonlive.com/special/index.ssf/2008/11/senate.html). With only a few exceptions, Gordo’s counties have been almost entirely counted. And the best of the exceptions, in terms of adding to his margin, is Marion County, where Smith leads by 9000 votes, but is ‘only’ 71% counted, so he might be able to add another 4000 votes to his 9000-vote margin in that county. He might be able to get another couple thousand in Linn, and another thousand or so in Jackson. Maybe there’s another 5-10K to be added to his lead in all the remaining red counties in Oregon. Maybe. Meanwhile, only 53% of Multnomah County has been counted. Merkley leads by 72,000 there. If the precincts that haven’t been counted are like those that have, he can reduce his deficit/increase his lead by maybe 64,000 votes. Likewise, he should be able to add 15K to his lead in Lane County. I don’t know Oregon much at all; I visited some relatives in Portland in 1983, and that’s been the sum total of the time I’ve spent there, so I’m no expert on it. But I’d cheerfully give odds that Gordon Smith’s lead is about to be swamped as they finish the count. ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2008, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-elections-thread-and-house-too-if-you-want/471198/28 "2008-11-06T01:15:58Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > …If he’s won, the real question is what happens next. Presumably the incoming Senate refuses to let him be seated, Alaska has a special election for the vacant seat, Mark Begich runs again for the Dems, and the GOP nominates someone other than Ted Stevens. > > Possibly Sarah Palin runs; weirder things have happened. Would the winner of the special election serve a full 6 year term or only until 2010? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2008, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-elections-thread-and-house-too-if-you-want/471198/29 "2008-11-06T02:04:39Z")
> [@alphaboi867](#): > > Would the winner of the special election serve a full 6 year term or only until 2010? I’m not sure, actually. I was unconsciously assuming the rest of the term, but now that you raise the question, I realize I don’t know. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2008, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-elections-thread-and-house-too-if-you-want/471198/30 "2008-11-06T02:07:32Z")
Merkley’s [now ahead by a few hundred votes](http://www.oregonlive.com/special/index.ssf/2008/11/senate.html) in Oregon. I think his ultimate margin of victory will be in five figures, rather than three. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2008, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-elections-thread-and-house-too-if-you-want/471198/31 "2008-11-06T02:32:53Z")
The Oregonian (same link as above) just called it for Merkley, for the sixth Dem pickup of the election. ---
**Author:** ![Coriolanus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coriolanus/32/18769_2.png) [@Coriolanus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Coriolanus)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2008, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-elections-thread-and-house-too-if-you-want/471198/32 "2008-11-06T02:32:53Z")
In Minnesota, with Franken-Coleman, 3 million votes cast, Franken is down 475. Norm Coleman of course is saying there should not be a recount. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2008, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-elections-thread-and-house-too-if-you-want/471198/33 "2008-11-06T02:40:59Z")
> [@Corbomite](#): > > In Minnesota, with Franken-Coleman, 3 million votes cast, Franken is down 475. Norm Coleman of course is saying there should not be a recount. I liked [the bit about](http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/243080.php) how if he were in Franken’s shoes, “If you ask me what I would do, I would, I would step back. I just think the need for the healing process is so important…” Well, why doesn’t he step back, then? If the healing process is more important than who actually wins, but he’s the only one of them that sees this, then it’s a no-brainer, right? Of course not. Who actually wins makes a damned big difference, which is why Coleman’s not going to step down, and why Franken’s not going to give up without a fight. To claim otherwise is disingenuous. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2008, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-elections-thread-and-house-too-if-you-want/471198/34 "2008-11-06T02:48:14Z")
> [@Corbomite](#): > > In Minnesota, with Franken-Coleman, 3 million votes cast, Franken is down 475. Norm Coleman of course is saying there should not be a recount. Is not having a recount even an option, assuming Franken agreed? I thought it was mandated by law if the vote was within a certain margin. ---
**Author:** ![Frostillicus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Frostillicus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frostillicus)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2008, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-elections-thread-and-house-too-if-you-want/471198/35 "2008-11-06T03:22:25Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Merkley’s [now ahead by a few hundred votes](http://www.oregonlive.com/special/index.ssf/2008/11/senate.html) in Oregon. I think his ultimate margin of victory will be in five figures, rather than three. I just looked at the vote totals in the eastern Oregon counties. Damn. Nobody lives there. ---
**Author:** ![AHunter3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ahunter3/32/368_2.png) [@AHunter3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AHunter3)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2008, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-elections-thread-and-house-too-if-you-want/471198/36 "2008-11-06T03:58:40Z")
How possible is it that Jim Martin could beat Saxby Chambliss in the Georgia Senatorial runoff? ---
**Author:** ![firstname](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7ab992/32.png) [@firstname](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/firstname)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2008, 9:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-elections-thread-and-house-too-if-you-want/471198/37 "2008-11-06T09:58:47Z")
> [@AHunter3](#): > > How possible is it that Jim Martin could beat Saxby Chambliss in the Georgia Senatorial runoff? Basically on the idea that the dems have more momentum at this point and are far more likely to actually go and vote in a special election. [http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/georgia-senate-race-headed-for-runoff.html](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/georgia-senate-race-headed-for-runoff.html) ---
**Author:** ![amarinth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3be4f8/32.png) [@amarinth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amarinth)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2008, 10:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-elections-thread-and-house-too-if-you-want/471198/38 "2008-11-06T10:29:15Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > 1. Alaska, where there’s all sorts of questions. First, is Ted Stevens the winner of the election? He seems to be Did the Dems even try? How bad of a candidate do you have to be that people look at you and say “actually, I would prefer the felon”? And I’m guessing it wasn’t just the hardcore republicans, but at least a good percentage of the moderates. It’s more embarrassing than losing to a corpse. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2008, 11:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-elections-thread-and-house-too-if-you-want/471198/39 "2008-11-06T11:04:35Z")
As 538 points out, something’s _very_ weird about the Alaska vote totals. In 2004, 314,502 Alaskans voted. So far this year, they’ve counted about 220,000 votes, and what with Palin on the national ticket, plus hotly contested statewide House and Senate races, it’s not exactly the sort of year you’d expect Alaskans to stay home in droves. The count right now is 106,351 to 102,998 in favor of Stevens, with another ~10,500 votes going to two minor-party candidates. Was there a big drop-off between the Presidential race and the Senate race? No: the difference in the count totals is well under 1000. [An Alaska TV station reports](http://www.ktuu.com/Global/story.asp?S=9301683): > [@](#): > > There are still a lot of other ballots out there to count, with about 20 percent of the total vote still needing to be tallied. > > Throughout Tuesday night, Stevens paced ahead, but the Democrat looking to unseat him stayed too close for comfort. > > For Begich it’s an uncomfortably familiar spot. > > “You know at the end of the day the numbers will tell you, the voters will tell you, and it may take like when I won my first mayor’s race it took another two weeks before we determined we were victorious,” Begich said. > > A little less than 3,300 votes currently separate him and Stevens. > > But there could be as many as 76,000 votes yet to come in. > > Stevens believes those ballots – which represent absentee, early and questioned votes – will skew to his favor. The GMU early-vote page cites the AP in saying that in 2004, 21.4% of Alaskans who voted, voted early. (No 2008 figures.) But even another 76,000 votes would leave the turnout about 18,000 below 2004 levels. That could have happened, I suppose, but it sure isn’t what you’d expect. At any rate, the number of votes to be counted clearly dwarfs Stevens’ lead. While he thinks the outstanding ballots will tilt his way, there’s a reason why you count 'em. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2008, 12:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-elections-thread-and-house-too-if-you-want/471198/40 "2008-11-06T12:52:47Z")
> [@amarinth](#): > > Did the Dems even try? > How bad of a candidate do you have to be that people look at you and say “actually, I would prefer the felon”? And I’m guessing it wasn’t just the hardcore republicans, but at least a good percentage of the moderates. It’s more embarrassing than losing to a corpse. He’s also a felon who brought electricity, water, and roads to many of them. How many billions of dollars has Stevens brought to Alaska? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-elections-thread-and-house-too-if-you-want/471198.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-elections-thread-and-house-too-if-you-want/471198.md?page=3)