# U.S. Senate races 2020 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 30, 2020, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876 "2020-04-30T05:17:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 15
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2020, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/282 "2020-09-16T13:49:36Z")
> [@romansperson](#): > > According to the article, the guy works as an information security analyst at Citigroup Not for long, I’m guessing. As information security threats at Citigroup go, a big ol’ red flag just went up there. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2020, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/283 "2020-09-16T22:06:32Z")
Quinnipiac, a pretty well regarded pollster, just came out with a Maine poll showing Gideon ahead of Collins by 12 points. For whatever that’s worth. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2020, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/284 "2020-09-16T22:48:55Z")
More good news that I can’t bring myself to believe. That would be terrific if Susan was tossed out on her “very concerned” butt. Still need one more. Could be Cunningham in NC. How’s Joni Ernst doing in Iowa? I believe the table could be set for Dems to pick up another one or two in 2022, midterm curse be damned. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2020, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/285 "2020-09-16T22:55:40Z")
Whoops, Quinnipiac also now has Jaime Harrison dead even with Lindsey Graham. That’s just too sweet to dream about. ---
**Author:** ![Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de053/32.png) [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackknifed_Juggernaut)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2020, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/286 "2020-09-17T02:43:42Z")
Why can’t I find Senate or House predictions on fivethirtyeight? Does he only model the presidential race? ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2020, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/287 "2020-09-17T03:27:26Z")
[Look no further. 538 Senate polls are here.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/) ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2020, 4:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/288 "2020-09-17T04:25:42Z")
> [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](#): > > Why can’t I find Senate or House predictions on fivethirtyeight? 538 typically does both a house and senate forecast and I have no reason to believe this year will be different. In 2018 the senate model came out 9/12. [I started a thread about it](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/538-senate-model-is-out/821235). ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2020, 12:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/289 "2020-09-17T12:04:16Z")
Right, but no MODEL (yet?) that uses those polls, and possibly other factors, to predict the likelihood of Democratic control of the Senate. As Lance Turbo mentioned, two years ago they did initiate such a model, at about this time in the cycle. (If that’s what Jacknifed Juggernaut was looking for - he-she also mentioned raw polls, which as you pointed out are in the 538 site already). ---
**Author:** ![Boycott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boycott/32/6741_2.png) [@Boycott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boycott)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2020, 12:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/291 "2020-09-17T12:39:37Z")
The same pollster that has Collins 12 points down also has McConnell 12 points up. The latter makes me confident in the former. I never believed McConnell was in trouble. McGrath made him sweat a bit for once but he’s a good political strategist as much as I dislike him. McConnell knows how to leverage his power and when to scurry into the shadows. While Trump was screwing up all summer he kept a distance. ---
**Author:** ![Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de053/32.png) [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackknifed_Juggernaut)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2020, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/292 "2020-09-17T12:46:32Z")
Sorry, should have been clearer. Yes, I meant the actual expected Democratic and Republican composition of the Senate, and confidence interval. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2020, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/293 "2020-09-17T13:19:10Z")
Got it! I’d like to see a 538 model, myself. Perhaps they decided not to run one this year? ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2020, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/294 "2020-09-17T14:38:34Z")
Look at McConnell’s and McGrath’s favorables/unfavorables in that poll. He’s slightly underwater (44/46) but she’s much more so (34/47). I also read a quote from her campaign manager that they put more stock in the Quinnipiac poll in August that only showed Mitch up by five — well of course you do, bud! ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2020, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/295 "2020-09-17T14:48:58Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Perhaps they decided not to run one this year? I’m sure 538 will put out senate and house forecasts this year. It’s one of the things they are known for and they have had the ‘machinery’ to do so in place since 2008. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2020, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/296 "2020-09-17T15:32:16Z")
I guess using the predictions for the tipping point senate seats in Maine and North Carolina is as close as we get to a model this year. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2020, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/297 "2020-09-17T15:39:14Z")
Senate model in progress per Tweet from 9/12… > Maybe out in time for the September probabilistic senate forecast thread which I should start soon. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2020, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/298 "2020-09-17T19:17:44Z")
Got it - thanks. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2020, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/299 "2020-09-18T02:19:24Z")
Weird that this came up today… > Senate forecast? ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2020, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/300 "2020-09-18T03:59:53Z")
I just see a lot of small boxes. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2020, 8:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/301 "2020-09-18T08:22:24Z")
I see drum emojis. Or angry little monsters. ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2020, 12:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/302 "2020-09-18T12:19:46Z")
538 Senate forecast: > **[2020 Senate Election Forecast](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/)** > > Latest forecasts and polls for the 2020 Senate elections by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight Discussion: > **[Democrats Are Slight Favorites To Take Back The Senate](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-are-slight-favorites-to-take-back-the-senate/)** > > Democrats are slight favorites to regain control of the Senate, according to the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast, which launched today. But the map is wide open… Brian [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876.md?page=14) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876.md?page=16)