# U.S. Senate races 2020 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 30, 2020, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876 "2020-04-30T05:17:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2020, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/21 "2020-05-01T14:12:29Z")
Gotcha. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![Folacin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/folacin/32/3195_2.png) [@Folacin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folacin)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2020, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/22 "2020-05-01T14:51:42Z")
> [@Shoeless](#): > > Kansas Republicans are understandably nervous. As mentioned above, Kobach has the stink of Trump all over him, and Pompeo keeps dancing around whether he will run or not, but at this point he may be Trump-tainted even worse than Kobach. I think it’s been over 100 years since Kansas elected a Democratic senator. I don’t think even without Trump stench that Kobach would be a good choice for the GOP in KS. He riles up their primary voters, but his years of gallivanting around the nation instead of minding his knitting at home has made fairly toxic. After losing the governor’s mansion, I’m surprised he has any real support in any case. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2020, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/23 "2020-05-01T15:52:45Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > The Dem candidates’ best campaign weapon remains every time Donald Trump goes on television and reveals his unfitness. Indeed. When I’ve heard fellow Democrats complain that Biden’s not being visible and not campaigning, I remind them of Napoleon’s axiom: > [@](#): > > Never interrupt your opponent when he is making a mistake. Trump is hammering himself - without enough self-awareness to know it - with those COVID briefings. The single best thing Biden can do is stand back and not distract from it. ---
**Author:** ![Boycott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boycott/32/6741_2.png) [@Boycott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boycott)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2020, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/24 "2020-05-01T23:54:52Z")
For the down-ballot Dems they might find opponents who choose to distance themselves from Trump the closer we get to the election to save their seats. I think August is the cut-off point whereby if polls keep showing Trump continually losing ground in swing states and barely above water in some traditionally red states (recent Texas and Georgia polling doesn’t look good for him) then you’re going to see a breakaway. ---
**Author:** ![Guest-starring\_Id](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guest-starring_id/32/21736_2.png) [@Guest-starring\_Id](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guest-starring_Id)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2020, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/25 "2020-05-02T17:34:44Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > I would not at all be surprised if McConnell goes down. Maybe wishful thinking, but he isn’t that popular in KY. Not popular? Hasn’t he made Kentucky one of the top three or four richest states when it comes to federal funding? (Heh, despite the evil moron whining last week about federal aid being a “blue state bailout”) > [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > Agreed. You could kinda sorta put Kentucky, where Amy McGrath is raising all kinds of money to battle the Turtle, in that same boat. She needs to defeat ol Turts almost as badly as the senate needing to get flipped or a switch in chief executive. How much of a stretch was that - what I just said? (whoever his replacement finally is, could he/she be any more execrable?) (at the very least I don’t recall Boehner being appointment-happy with garbage judges.) ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2020, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/26 "2020-05-02T17:37:12Z")
63% for D in NC is way high. If Tillis loses here it won’t be by more than a few points. He probably starts with 45% at least. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2020, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/27 "2020-05-02T18:50:46Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > 63% for D in NC is way high. If Tillis loses here it won’t be by more than a few points. He probably starts with 45% at least. You are misunderstanding what 63% represents in my previous post. The 63% represents the estimated probability of the Democrat winning the race and not the projected share of the vote. It wiggles around a little bit day to day, but it has been pretty consistently in a range where 63% seems possible. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2020, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/28 "2020-05-02T19:37:17Z")
Yes I know what your 63% means. It is still way high. Right now it’s a tossup or leans R. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2020, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/29 "2020-05-02T19:59:09Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > Yes I know what your 63% means. It is still way high. Right now it’s a tossup or leans R. What is your methodology for determining this? ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2020, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/30 "2020-05-02T20:39:28Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > What is your methodology for determining this? Living in NC for 50 years and looking at the results of recent senate races and other races. The metro areas of Charlotte, Triad, Triangle are mostly blue but they also contain a lot of young people who vote Dem but don’t vote nearly as much as older people who tend to vote GOP. Rural areas are pretty much way red. Tillis might well lose in Nov. but I still see him as the slight favorite. Is anyone else predicting he will lose? Cook report has the race as tossup which I agree with. ---
**Author:** ![Guest-starring\_Id](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guest-starring_id/32/21736_2.png) [@Guest-starring\_Id](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guest-starring_Id)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2020, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/31 "2020-05-02T22:35:23Z")
> [@Guest-starring\_Id](#): > > (at the very least I don’t recall Boehner being appointment-happy with garbage judges.) Brilliant - getting my House Speakers and Senate Leaders mixed up - apologies. Was Trent Lott any worse than MM? Bill Perdue (R.) isn’t [confident of victory](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/495438-gop-senator-warned-democrats-could-flip-georgia-report) in November in Georgia. > [@](#): > > Georgia is home to two Senate races that are considered relatively competitive. Perdue is running for reelection against several Democrats still competing in a primary, while a “jungle” primary has exposed bitter divisions within the GOP in the race to complete the term of former Sen. Johnny Isakson (R). > [@](#): > > “The demographic moves against us. But we can still win this if we get out and **make sure that all of our voters vote**. That’s what this comes down to.” My bold. Yeah? Including _mail-in_ votes, Mr. Republican? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2020, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/32 "2020-05-02T23:14:54Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > Cook report has the race as tossup which I agree with. First, 63% D is a pretty much a toss up. It takes at least 40 trials to tell a 63/37 coin from a 50/50 coin. Second, I’m just reporting what the market is saying. There’s over a hundred shares of Republican ‘Yes’ up for sale at PredictIt for $0.44 per share. If you think that’s underpriced, there’s an obvious course of action for you to take. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2020, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/33 "2020-05-02T23:37:07Z")
I don’t bet on political races. Just the lottery now and then. 🙂 I think last time UK bookies were so confident of a Clinton win I believe some actually paid out before the election. I guess they got all that money back. I prefer to listen to political experts about races, not bookies. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2020, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/34 "2020-05-02T23:44:37Z")
Suit yourself. Also, PredictIt is a prediction market, not a bookie i.e. buyers and sellers set their own prices. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2020, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/35 "2020-05-03T00:03:43Z")
OK I will put $100k on Tillis to lose. Happy? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2020, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/36 "2020-05-03T00:16:30Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > OK I will put $100k on Tillis to lose. Happy? Don’t do it to make me happy. Do it for yourself. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2020, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/37 "2020-05-03T00:59:06Z")
**Lance** - What debiasing formula do you use? IIUC Rothschild’s y’ = Phi(1.64 \* Phi^-1 (y)) changes 28% into 17%. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2020, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/38 "2020-05-03T03:03:45Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > **Lance** - What debiasing formula do you use? IIUC Rothschild’s y’ = Phi(1.64 \* Phi^-1 (y)) changes 28% into 17%. I do use f(y) = Φ(1.64 \* Φ[sup]-1/sup), and f(0.28) is indeed quite close to 0.17. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2020, 8:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/39 "2020-05-03T08:54:09Z")
Is there good evidence that that formula gives useful results for prediction markets? I ask for two reasons: (1) The unadjusted percentages inferred from Betfair often sum to about 90 to 100% as they should. I don’t think the adjusted percentages do. (2) IIUC that formula was derived from horse races, where odds are determined by pari-mutuel. In most prediction markets individual bets are laid; the formula would thus seem to assume long-shot fear, properly adjusted, balances long-shot greed exactly. Does it? I assume that prediction market players are well aware that inferred percentages should sum to 95%(\*) or so, and bid up the costs to lay long-shot tickets, if only to protect their other investments. Four years ago, in _Game Threads_, I organized a pari-mutuel prediction market (“Karachi auction”) to predict the GOP nominee, but there was no interest in such a thing this cycle. (The four-years ago Karachi auction turned me into a laughingstock when I advised a foreign Doper to reduce his wager on the joke candidate, Trump. :smack: ) ETA: (\* - 95% rather than 100% to leave room for dark horses coming from “out of nowhere.”) ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2020, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/40 "2020-05-03T14:58:54Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Is there good evidence that that formula gives useful results for prediction markets? Yes. You have read the same paper as I have. [Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and Their Biases](http://researchdmr.com/RothschildPOQ2009.pdf). > [@septimus](#): > > (1) The unadjusted percentages inferred from Betfair often sum to about 90 to 100% as they should. I don’t think the adjusted percentages do. The adjusted percentages for these particular races add up to 100%. They do so because I make them do so. Here’s the process: 1. Collect the average of the bid and ask prices from the PredictIt API for both parties for every senate race offered on the site every hour. Call these d\_raw and r\_raw. 2. Normalize with respect to the L[sub]1[/sub] norm. Call this d\_norm. This means d\_norm = d\_raw / (d\_raw + r\_raw). Same goes for r\_norm, but that is never used. 3. Debias for longshot-favorite bias the way Rothschild does as suggested by Leigh, et. al… Call this d\_debias. So d\_debias = Φ(1.64 \* Φ[sup]-1/sup). Due to the nature of Φ, d\_norm+ r\_norm = 1 implies d\_debias + r\_debias = 1. 4. Finally I compute the 24 hour rolling average of the debiased probabilities. Call this d\_rolling. with a similarly computed r\_rollling we should have d\_rolling + r\_rolling = 1, but I don’t bother with that. I set r\_rolling = 1 - d\_rolling. > [@septimus](#): > > (2) IIUC that formula was derived from horse races, where odds are determined by pari-mutuel. In most prediction markets individual bets are laid; the formula would thus seem to assume long-shot fear, properly adjusted, balances long-shot greed exactly. Does it? It seems to based on Rothschild’s results. > [@septimus](#): > > I assume that prediction market players are well aware that inferred percentages should sum to 95%(\*) or so, and bid up the costs to lay long-shot tickets, if only to protect their other investments. I don’t do this, because I haven’t seen any reason to believe that a third party candidate has a greater than zero chance of winning in any of these races, much less 5% chance. If such a candidate should emerge I will adjust my model accordingly. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876.md?page=3)