# U.S. Senate races 2020 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 30, 2020, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876 "2020-04-30T05:17:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2020, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/41 "2020-05-03T15:08:26Z")
Thanks! My comment about probabilities not summing to 100% (or nearly so) did not apply to the binary (or nearly binary) races like Senate seats, but to nominee markets where there are several choices. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2020, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/42 "2020-05-03T15:13:56Z")
I think a lot depends on Trump, if he wins NC easily then Tillis wins. If Trump manages to lose here or just barely wins that could mean Tillis loses. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2020, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/43 "2020-05-03T15:19:07Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Thanks! My comment about probabilities not summing to 100% (or nearly so) did not apply to the binary (or nearly binary) races like Senate seats, but to nominee markets where there are several choices. f(x) = Φ(c \* Φ[sup]-1/sup) has the property that |0.5 - x| \> |0.5 - f(x)| when c \> 1 (i.e. it pushes things away from 50%). So if we had a + b + c = 1 with a, b, c \< 0.5, then f(a) + f(b) + f(c) \< 1 is guaranteed since we have f(a) \< a, f(b) \< b, and f(c) \< c. For this reason and others this debiasing formula is not sufficient for races with three or more possible outcomes. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2020, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/44 "2020-05-03T15:22:51Z")
We should _hope_ the voting is correlated, since the White House does us little good without the Senate. But aren’t there a large group of baffling voters who will say “I voted D for President, so will vote the R Senator for balance” ? “Gridlock! Yayyy!!!” ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2020, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/45 "2020-05-03T15:39:29Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > I think a lot depends on Trump, if he wins NC easily then Tillis wins. If Trump manages to lose here or just barely wins that could mean Tillis loses. In 2016 Trump won NC by 3.5% and Roy Cooper won the governor race by 0.2%. Currently both Trump and Cooper are each favored slightly again. this certainly indicates that the senate seat seat is in play, and the most recent poll result is Cunningham (D) +7 over Tillis (R). My adjusted PredictIt reflects this as well. Last night’s posted results were: NC Electoral College: P(D) = 46.8% NC Senate: P(D) = 64.5% Also see (from January): [NEW POLL: Tillis’ Approval Ratings Still Underwater Even After Spending More Than $700k on Primary Ad Campaign](https://www.ncdp.org/press/new-poll-tillis-approval-ratings/) > [@](#): > > Tillis once again has the lowest approval rating (34%) of any Republican Senator up for reelection this year. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2020, 10:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/46 "2020-05-04T10:46:26Z")
I still don’t know how Hagan won for NC Senate in 08 but I guess Obama helped her and Dole tried to call her an atheist. Also Bev Perdue won for governor that year and that may have helped Hagan too. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2020, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/47 "2020-05-04T13:17:30Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > We should _hope_ the voting is correlated, since the White House does us little good without the Senate. But aren’t there a large group of baffling voters who will say “I voted D for President, so will vote the R Senator for balance” ? “Gridlock! Yayyy!!!” You know, I use to hear that, I haven’t for years, in fact for decades now. I feel like that reduced a lot after the 90s. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2020, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/48 "2020-05-04T14:59:09Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > We should _hope_ the voting is correlated, since the White House does us little good without the Senate. You’re right that voting tends to correlate, both inside a state and between states. But this statement is still demonstrably untrue, septimus. In any emergency care situation the first step is stopping the bleeding. Taking the White House is an important first step. I think we have a chance at the Senate - more data as more polls closer to E-day will make things clearer - but taking the White House and changing the direction of the federal government is overwhelmingly important. Or, to rephrase, which is preferable? Gridlock or Trump and McConnell continuing to work together for another four years? ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2020, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/49 "2020-05-04T16:09:07Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > We should _hope_ the voting is correlated, since the White House does us little good without the Senate. But aren’t there a large group of baffling voters who will say “I voted D for President, so will vote the R Senator for balance” ? “Gridlock! Yayyy!!!” I don’t actually find that all that baffling. There are people who either a) don’t want the government to be able to do anything much or b) want the government to only be able to do things on which there is wide agreement. The second of those would IMO make considerable sense if it weren’t that for some years now we’ve had people in the US government who disagree with anything that the other party’s in favor of, purely on the grounds that the other party’s in favor of it. So it’s gotten unreasonably difficult to get wide agreement. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 12:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/50 "2020-05-06T12:44:10Z")
Some encouraging [senate polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/) this week, but keep in mind that there’s a long way to go. Iowa: Ernst (R) 43 +1 over Greenfield (D) 42, PPP May 4 Montana: Bullock (D) 46 +7 over Daines (R) 39, MSU Bozeman May 5 North Carolina: Cunningham (D) 50 +9 over Tillis (R) 41, Civiqs May 5 Colorado: Hickenlooper (D) 48 +17(!) over Gardner (R) 31, MSU Bozeman May 5 ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/51 "2020-05-06T13:26:46Z")
PPP is a Dem polling organization, so sadly can’t be too happy about the Iowa poll. The rest look very hopeful and a Montana win would be unexpected. So cool. Daines ® is the incumbent. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/52 "2020-05-06T14:20:36Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > PPP is a Dem polling organization, so sadly can’t be too happy about the Iowa poll. The rest look very hopeful and a Montana win would be unexpected. So cool. Daines (R) is the incumbent. I wouldn’t get too happy about any of the polls this far out and when polling data in each race is pretty sparse, but while PPP is a partisan organization their polling is pretty much on the level. 538 has them as a B rated pollster with a slight 0.3% Dem lean. Of the four polls in my post, the PPP is the most reliable. Neither Civiqs nor Montana State Bozeman have the track record necessary to even be properly rated, and the Civiqs poll was paid for by Daily Kos. [538 pollster ratings](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/) ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/53 "2020-05-06T18:55:04Z")
Man, Montana would be a gift I never would have dreamed of receiving a few months ago. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/54 "2020-05-06T19:44:26Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > Agreed. You could kinda sorta put Kentucky, where Amy McGrath is raising all kinds of money to battle the Turtle, in that same boat. I think she will lose. But there’s a huge amount of pressure there, and the GOP will have to choose where to spend it’s resources. IMHO, they will spend it on keeping control of the senate, not shoring up trump. So even in races like kentucky, where the dem candidate will likely lose due to GOP voter fraud and suppression, keeping the pressure on is critical. That’s why I see texas as critical- Biden and trump are neck and neck in polls. The GOP will have to pour money there to keep it red- or pour $ to keep Moscow Mitch? Incidentally, I think Amy Mcgrath would be a wonderful Senator. I even sent her a small donation. ---
**Author:** ![Boycott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boycott/32/6741_2.png) [@Boycott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boycott)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2020, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/55 "2020-05-07T00:19:27Z")
I follow this blog that has been doing polling analysis/forecasts as hobbies on elections since 2004. He’s a self-declared conservative but a numbers man and has a solid record at predicting elections. > **[Election Projection – The original projection website – The original election...](https://electionprojection.com/)** > > Visit the one who started it all. Click for the premier conservative online election handicapper. EP has accurately projected election outcomes since 2003. His current projections are: President: **Biden** 278 - Trump 260 Senate: **Republicans** 51 (-2) - 47 Democrats (+2) House: **Democrats** 240 (+6) - Republicans 195 (-5) ---
**Author:** ![Boycott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boycott/32/6741_2.png) [@Boycott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boycott)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2020, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/56 "2020-05-07T00:46:43Z")
This blogger has also been going since 2004 and also has a solid record. > **[Electoral-vote.com](https://electoral-vote.com/)** > > Track the 2022 Senate election with a red/blue map of the US updated daily using the latest state polls. Although his electoral college forecast is _way_ too optimistic for me as he assesses through 2020 polls which in some states there haven’t been many. And in some states like Texas where the polls show a statistical tie, he marks it as a tie at this point. The other guy makes his calls as if the election were to be held today. ---
**Author:** ![pjacks](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e19adc/32.png) [@pjacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pjacks)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2020, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/57 "2020-05-07T00:57:26Z")
> [@Boycott](#): > > This blogger has also been going since 2004 and also has a solid record. > > [https://electoral-vote.com/](https://electoral-vote.com/) > > Although his electoral college forecast is _way_ too optimistic for me as he assesses through 2020 polls which in some states there haven’t been many. And in some states like Texas where the polls show a statistical tie, he marks it as a tie at this point. The other guy makes his calls as if the election were to be held today. This guy doesn’t make much sense. Even though his map has CO as Likely GOP, he says this about the race: > [@](#): > > Colorado is turning blue and Cory Gardner is going to be one of the Democrats’ top three targets (along with Martha McSally in Arizona and Susan Collins in Maine). The blue team has won every presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial race since 2008, with the exception of Gardner’s race in 2014. The Democrats got their dream candidate when former governor John Hickenlooper dropped out of the presidential race and threw his hat into the ring for the Senate race. Early polls give Hickenlooper a double-digit lead. Hickenlooper’s main primary challenger is Andrew Romanoff, leader of Colorado’s progressives and former speaker of the Colorado House. The pandemic is going to hurt Romanoff because as a former two-term governor, Hickenlooper is far better known than Romanoff. Once Romanoff is dispatched in June, Hickenlooper can focus on taking down Gardner, the most vulnerable Republican in the Senate. ---
**Author:** ![Boycott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boycott/32/6741_2.png) [@Boycott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boycott)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2020, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/58 "2020-05-07T01:06:28Z")
> [@pjacks](#): > > This guy doesn’t make much sense. Even though his map has CO as Likely GOP, he says this about the race: He’s only just starting to cover senate races. That write-up he’s done was all done in the last 24 hours (check the bottom of the page) so I expect the map to reflect swiftly. Up to now he has only concentrated on the presidential race. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2020, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/59 "2020-05-07T16:06:21Z")
> [@Folacin](#): > > I don’t think even without Trump stench that Kobach would be a good choice for the GOP in KS… Just got a fundraising letter from his likely Dem opponent, Barbara Bollier, in which a picture of Trump pointing approvingly at Kobach is featured quite prominently. > [@DrDeth](#): > > …Incidentally, I think Amy Mcgrath would be a wonderful Senator [for Kentucky]. I even sent her a small donation. As did I! There’s also a super PAC helping her: [https://ditchmitchfund.com/](https://ditchmitchfund.com/) ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2020, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/60 "2020-05-20T16:44:04Z")
Just sent to me by a politically-savvy Ohio lawyer I know: \*Friends, I hope that each of you remain safe and healthy—far more so than our democracy currently is. From the bungled response to the pandemic to the corrupting of the DOJ as evidenced by the Flynn debacle to the trumpeting of a made-up scandal as a diversionary tactic, it’s clear that the Conman-in-Chief is corrupting our government and our institutions as badly as we’d each feared. Perhaps even worse. So what’s the antidote? We all know the #1 mission: Dump Trump this November. And we’ll all do our part here in Ohio… We each have to make decisions about how to allocate our donation dollars to get the best bang for our bucks. Along those lines, I just gave to Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.). Here’s why: · Michigan is more in play than Ohio is, and it’ll be nearly impossible for the Orange Overlord to win a second term without winning Michigan. · Sen. Peters’ poll numbers correlate strongly with Biden’s. Engaging Democrats benefits both candidates in lockstep. · Mission #2 after dumping Trump is to improve the Senate. To do that, we need to defend the seats we already have. Two Democratic Senators stand for reelection in states that Trump won in 2016—Sen. Peters, and Sen. Doug Jones. Of the two, Sen. Peters’ race will likely be tighter, and it is the only one taking place in a state that’s in play in the Electoral College. · Sen. Peters has deep relationships in Michigan’s urban centers and can engage those voters to increase turnout that will benefit Democrats up and down the ballot. For all these reasons, in my estimation, Sen. Peters’ campaign is an efficient destination for donations—one that can help us accomplish two goals with the same money. As you all consider how to allocate your donation dollars this cycle, I hope that you’ll consider Sen. Peters’ campaign. I’m happy to talk more about Sen. Peters with anyone who’s interested. And for those of you who would like to support his campaign, here’s a link you can use to do so: [ActBlue](https://secure.actblue.com/donate/na051720v) Many thanks for your time and consideration. Stay safe. Wash your hands.\* [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876.md?page=4)