# U.S. Senate races 2020 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 30, 2020, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876 "2020-04-30T05:17:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2020, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/61 "2020-05-20T22:58:45Z")
There’s a lot of weird noise involving Gary Peters lately. Besides Doug Jones, who is doomed, Peters seems to be the most at risk Dem. Peters is essential to most paths to the Dems getting 50 seats and Trump did win Michigan in 2016 so I could see why Republicans would want to target it, but other than Republicans really wanting to win it, I have seen nothing to indicate that they have any real chance of winning this seat. there’s a lot of time between now and November though. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2020, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/62 "2020-05-21T17:16:09Z")
an outside group is attacking Sen. Tillis here in NC with TV ads but I normally don’t see them since I tend to tape and fast forward through them. ---
**Author:** ![Boycott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boycott/32/6741_2.png) [@Boycott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boycott)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2020, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/63 "2020-05-21T18:35:10Z")
> [@](#): > > From the Republican uh-oh department: Arizona Sen. Martha McSally is sliding in the polls, dropping four percentage points in a month. > > **McSally now trails Democrat Mark Kelly by 13 points** , according to the latest tracking poll by OH Predictive Insights. > > While the April poll of 600 likely voters favored Kelly 51% to McSally’s 42%, in May it’s now 51%-38%. > > The poll shows independents breaking more than 2-1 for Kelly. > > “McSally is doing terribly,” pollster Mike Noble told me on Monday. “There’s no way to find a bright spot on that one.” > **[New poll shows Sen. Martha McSally losing ground to Mark Kelly and that's not...](https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2020/05/19/sen-martha-mcsally-slides-new-poll-and-thats-not-even-bad-news/5218402002/)** > > The latest tracking poll shows Republican Sen. Martha McSally losing ground to Democrat Mark Kelly but that's not what should have her reaching for the Maalox. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2020, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/64 "2020-05-21T18:37:57Z")
More on the GOP challenger in Michigan, and a possible Trump-millstone effect: [GOP rising star John James faces trouble at top of ticket](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/05/21/gop-rising-star-john-james-faces-trouble-at-top-of-ticket/24377543/) ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2020, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/65 "2020-05-21T19:15:51Z")
538 added a couple of Michigan senate polls to their database today. Mich. , MAY 11-17, Peters 48%, James 43%, Peters +5 Mich. , MAY 1-5, Hodas & Associates\*, Peters 48%, James 36%, Peters +12 ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2020, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/66 "2020-05-22T03:52:41Z")
Just gave to Steve Bullock’s U.S. Senate campaign in Montana. I liked what I saw of him as a presidential candidate, and there’s a real chance of flipping this seat. > **[Steve Bullock for Senate](https://stevebullock.com/)** > > Steve Bullock is the two-term Governor of Montana. Born and raised in Montana, Steve and his wife Lisa are raising their own family in Helena, where they live with their three kids: Caroline, Alex and Cameron. > **[Steve Bullock (American politician)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Bullock_(American_politician))** > > Stephen Clark Bullock (born April 11, 1966) is an American politician and lawyer, who served as the 24th governor of Montana from 2013 to 2021. He is a member of the Democratic Party. > Born in Missoula, Montana, Bullock graduated from Claremont McKenna College and Columbia Law School. He began his career working as legal counsel to the Secretary of State of Montana before becoming the Executive Assistant Attorney General and acting Chief Deputy Attorney General of Montana. Bullock then entered ... ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2020, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/67 "2020-05-22T19:36:10Z")
Can anyone link to 538 overall senate map? I am having problems finding it. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2020, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/68 "2020-05-23T01:43:19Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Can anyone link to 538 overall senate map? I am having problems finding it. They won’t release a senate model until much closer to the election. In 2018 they did it early September. [538 Senate Model is out](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=862136) ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2020, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/69 "2020-05-26T15:22:30Z")
Democrats looking good in southwestern Senate races: [US election: Changing Southwest may bring Democrats a milestone win | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/26/politics/us-election-senate-democrats-southwest/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2020, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/70 "2020-05-26T16:55:01Z")
The most recent Arizona senate poll was absolutely brutal for incumbent R McSally. U.S. Senate Ariz., MAY 9-11, 2020, OH Predictive Insights, Kelly 51%, McSally 38%, Kelly +13 ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2020, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/71 "2020-05-26T19:53:58Z")
Martha McSally losing bigly would be a win for the nation. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2020, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/72 "2020-05-27T04:11:26Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > Martha McSally losing bigly would be a win for the nation. I would vote against her for her strong support of Trump, were I an Arizona voter. But my two regrets are that she has long been an advocate for retaining the A-10 Thunderbolt aircraft (of which she is a former pilot) in the U.S. Air Force inventory, and an opponent of requiring U.S. servicewomen to wear the abaya when off-base in Saudi Arabia, both issues on which I strongly agree with her. > **[The A-10 Thunderbolt/Warthog: Air Force: "We don't want it" Army: We'll take it](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=719159)** > > The whole retiring-the-A10 proposal seems nuts to me, but what do I know. A UAV and any F-35s that happen to be around for low, low, level hunt-and-kill? The F-35 for close-in troop support? 😕 Anyway, is it possible that intra-service budget rivalry... > **[Martha McSally](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martha_McSally#Lawsuit_against_the_U.S._Department_of_Defense_(McSally_v._Rumsfeld))** > > Martha Elizabeth McSally (born March 22, 1966) is an American politician and former military pilot who has represented Arizona in the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate. > McSally served in the United States Air Force from 1988 to 2010, achieving the rank of colonel. She is the first U.S. woman to fly in combat and also the first to command a fighter squadron. In 2001, McSally successfully sued the United States Department of Defense in McSally v. Rumsfeld, chall... ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2020, 4:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/73 "2020-05-27T04:32:56Z")
Remember in the run up to the 2018 elections when the Republican racist dogwhistle was pretending that a migrant caravan was dangerous? [Arizona Republican Senate Candidate Says She Doesn’t Want to Talk Health Care—Just “Things That Matter” Martha McSally said she’d rather talk about the caravan.](https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/10/arizona-republican-senate-martha-mcsally-obamacare-preexisting-conditions-caravan/) She deserves to lose. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2020, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/74 "2020-05-27T13:24:41Z")
Looks like the White House is getting worried about losing the Senate: [The White House is getting \*very\* worried about the Senate majority | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/26/politics/senate-gop-majority-2020-white-house/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2020, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/75 "2020-05-27T14:40:50Z")
Another AZ senate poll released today… U.S. Senate, Ariz., MAY 18-22, 2020, HighGround Inc., Kelly 51%, McSally 41%, Kelly +10 When she was in the house McSally was a moderate Republican who cared mostly about defense and veteran issues. She didn’t endorse Trump in 2016 and called his Access Hollywood tape comments disgusting. In her 2018 senate run she went all in on Trump and didn’t look back. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2020, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/76 "2020-05-27T18:57:19Z")
Another senate poll released today… U.S. Senate, S.C., MAY 23-26, 2020, Civiqs, Harrison 42%, Graham 42%, EVEN I’m slightly more inclined to believe that Civiqs sucks at polling than South Carolina is in play, but it’s an interesting result nonetheless. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/77 "2020-05-28T15:06:09Z")
U.S. Senate, Maine, MAY 13-18, 2020, Victory Geek\*, Gideon 51%, Collins 42%, Gideon +9 - Indicates that this was a partisan sponsored poll. That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s inaccurate, but polls of this type tend to only be released if they are favorable to the sponsoring party. FYI, 538 is my polling aggregate [source](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/). ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/78 "2020-05-28T16:22:15Z")
I may be wrong but I think it’s not rare for challengers to lead early polls and lose in the end. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/79 "2020-05-28T18:23:35Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Another senate poll released today… > > U.S. Senate, S.C., MAY 23-26, 2020, Civiqs, Harrison 42%, Graham 42%, EVEN > > I’m slightly more inclined to believe that Civiqs sucks at polling than South Carolina is in play, but it’s an interesting result nonetheless. The point is- with Texas, Az, Georgia, Kentucky and yes- NC all being serious battleground states, the GOP is gonna have to spend $ everywhere, and double down on voter suppression. Stacey Abrams almost won in Georgia. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2020, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/80 "2020-06-09T15:38:44Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Another AZ senate poll released today… > > U.S. Senate, Ariz., MAY 18-22, 2020, HighGround Inc., Kelly 51%, McSally 41%, Kelly +10 > > When she was in the house McSally was a moderate Republican who cared mostly about defense and veteran issues. She didn’t endorse Trump in 2016 and called his Access Hollywood tape comments disgusting. > > In her 2018 senate run she went all in on Trump and didn’t look back. This. The Sunday before the Senate impeachment trial vote I left a voicemail at her office imploring her to vote what she knew was right rather than the party line, pointing out that yes, she’d likely lose the upcoming primary but at least could hold her head high. Apparently she forgot that going all-Trump made her _lose_ the 2018 election and the only reason she was a senator at all was because she was appointed by Governor Ducey to fill McCain’s seat. I expressed my disappointment in an email in February, she deigned to answer in May, about the time her poll numbers began slipping. You can follow the saga [here](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=22302510&postcount=7881), but upshot is she only defended a minor point of the email and left unanswered the main thrust. I mulled over how temperate my reply should be for a while, but with Trump’s actions threatening protestors with the military and the shift in her campaign ads from anti-Corona “We’re in this together” to anti-Kelly “He’s in commie China’s pocket!!1!” I decided, fuck it: I must say I am surprised you bothered early in May to reply to an email sent last February. However, I did not bury the lede. You responded to the fourth paragraph where I merely indicated that the discharges showed President Trump’s pettiness as a president, and a human being. Yes, he has the right to have any civil servant working for him he wishes. Had he been acting as a president should any time in the past three years I would cut him some slack, but I cannot recall two days straight where he was acting in support of any interest save Donald J. Trump. Furthermore, your mealy-mouthed response, _Rest assured that should legislation regarding these dismissals come before the Senate for a vote, I will consider it with your thoughts in mind._ means nothing at all. You know good and well nothing at all regarding these dismissals or any others will be introduced between now and the election. So let me again ask the question I wish you had answered. \*That Trump did the things the House accused him of was not in question. Ample evidence and his own statements proved his guilt to anyone but the most partisan supporter of him. The only question to be answered is, does what he did rise to the level where the impeachment should lead to his removal from office. Apparently you, and a majority of the Senate agreed, voting to not call any witnesses nor examine any documents. If withholding money Congress had appropriated – military aid to help a struggling ally withstand encroachment by a dictatorial regime – is not sufficient to warrant removal from office, what is? This goes double when you consider that – like sending Al Capone to prison for tax evasion – the impeachment charges were merely the easiest to prove in a long list of malfeasances.\* Events in the past three months have shown, President Trump is incapable of the simplest kind of leadership in a crisis – medical or racial. As a veteran, I am aghast that he would unleash the military against citizens of this country. Why have I not seen your voice in the chorus of retired military and former Secretaries of Defense condemning this proposal? Since you pride yourself on plain speaking, let me give it to you with the bark off. To hell with President Trump and all he stands for – feeding his ego and lining his pockets. To hell with Trump’s allies who seek to divide this country – they destroy what we are all about. To hell with Trump’s enablers who are willing to look the other way because he advances a more innocuous agenda of their own – regardless of how beneficial the advance is, the cost to our society is too great.Early in 2018 I changed my registration from Libertarian to Independent. In Arizona that means for the general primary (but not the presidential preference) I can request any party I choose. For this year I picked the Republican ballot. McSally has an opponent, Daniel McCarthy, but he looks even [worse](https://demanddaniel.com/issues/). I’m thinking marking the ballot with the line through her goddam name instead of the right spot won’t even get noticed, but it will make _me_ feel better. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876.md?page=5)