# U.S. Senate races 2020 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 30, 2020, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876 "2020-04-30T05:17:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2020, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/81 "2020-06-09T16:32:42Z")
Since this thread was bumped… a couple of promising senate polls released today… Iowa, JUN 6-8, 2020, Civiqs, Greenfield 48%, Ernst 45%, Greenfield +3 Ky., MAY 21-24, 2020, RMG Research, McGrath 41%, McConnell 40%, McGrath +1 Both of these races are stretch goals for team D in November and are not required to control the chamber. It looks super unlikely even with these polls, but a boy can dream. ---
**Author:** ![Theodore\_Striker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/74df32/32.png) [@Theodore\_Striker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Theodore_Striker)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2020, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/82 "2020-06-10T19:13:29Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Since this thread was bumped… a couple of promising senate polls released today… > > Iowa, JUN 6-8, 2020, Civiqs, Greenfield 48%, Ernst 45%, Greenfield +3 > Ky., MAY 21-24, 2020, RMG Research, McGrath 41%, McConnell 40%, McGrath +1 > > Both of these races are stretch goals for team D in November and are not required to control the chamber. It looks super unlikely even with these polls, but a boy can dream. KY is interesting because the Dems have finally figured out that they were wasting their time in the rural areas. Sure, they can get a vote or two here or there, but nothing significant. Instead, they are taking to focusing on getting turn out where they have the advantage. It won them the Governor’s office, and Turtleboy is largely reviled, at home and nationally. Would love to see him get flushed ---
**Author:** ![DoctorJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/doctorj/32/2904_2.png) [@DoctorJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DoctorJ)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2020, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/83 "2020-06-11T00:36:23Z")
KY always breaks right, so McGrath +1 means a big win for Mitch. Also, McGrath is the classic “electable centrist” targeting those mythic “swing voters” by carefully saying nothing at all. That hasn’t stopped McConnell from painting her as the leftest lefty who ever lefted, so in the end she appeals to absolutely nobody and becomes a “not Mitch” vote, which ought to be enough but isn’t. That’s why both of our big papers in the state have endorsed Charles Booker, her far more progressive, far more interesting primary challenger. He has surged hard in the last few weeks and with the endorsements I think he might pull it off. Can he beat Mitch? I think he could, if his momentum carries and he makes a national splash, which he very well could. Either way, I know Amy can’t beat Mitch, and I’d much rather watch Booker try. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2020, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/84 "2020-06-11T01:11:52Z")
> [@Boycott](#): > > I follow this blog that has been doing polling analysis/forecasts as hobbies on elections since 2004. He’s a self-declared conservative but a numbers man and has a solid record at predicting elections. > > [https://www.electionprojection.com/](https://www.electionprojection.com/) > > His current projections are: > > President: **Biden** 278 - Trump 260 > Senate: **Republicans** 51 (-2) - 47 Democrats (+2) > House: **Democrats** 240 (+6) - Republicans 195 (-5) And in four days his [prediction for President](https://electionprojection.com/presidential-elections.php) has shifted rather dramatically. He’s now saying: **Biden** 334 - Trump 204 The Senate and House predictions are about the same but that is a really huge swing in a short period of time. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2020, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/85 "2020-06-13T23:50:58Z")
A new _Des Moines Register_ poll (which Larry Sabato of Crystal Ball calls Iowa’s "gold standard poll) has Joni Ernst trailing by three points. I did not see that one coming. Like with Montana, this is a sudden and unexpected ray of hope. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2020, 12:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/86 "2020-06-14T12:20:12Z")
From what I’ve seen: The closest Senate races for seats currently held by a Republican are, in order of current polls starting with most in favor of the Republican, are: Iowa (Ernst-R vs. Greenfield-D) Montana (Daines-R vs. Bullock-D) North Carolina (Tillis-R vs. Cunningham-D) Colorado (Gardner-R vs. Hickenlooper-D, probably – primary isn’t until June 30) Maine (Collins-R vs. Gideon-D, probably – primary isn’t until July 14) Arizona (McSally-R vs. Kelly-D) The one close Senate race for a seat currently held by a Democrat (though the Dem is currently favored) is: Michigan (Peters-D vs. James-R) The one Senate race for a seat currently held by a Democrat, but quite likely to switch to Republican, is: Alabama (Jones-D vs. Tuberville, probably – runoff primary isn’t until July 14) Currently, the Senate is 53-47. If Jones loses but Peters wins (54-46 with no other changes), and the races poll in the order above, the “tipping point” race is North Carolina (IF Biden wins). If the Dems win North Carolina, they hold the Senate 50-50. (If Trump wins, the “tipping point” race is Montana – Dems must win that, too, to make it 51-49.) (If James wins in Michigan, the Dems must win Montana as well as North Carolina, to make it 50-50 – AND also Iowa, if they needed to make it 51-49 because Biden lost). ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2020, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/87 "2020-06-14T15:53:25Z")
Michigan senate polls released in June: U.S. Senate, Mich., MAY 31-JUN 7, 2020, Kiaer Research, Peters 48%, James 32%, Peters +16 U.S. Senate, Mich., MAY 30-JUN 3, 2020, EPIC-MRA, Peters 51%, James 36%, Peters +15 U.S. Senate, Mich., MAY 29-30, 2020, Public Policy Polling\*, Peters 48%, James 39%, Peters +9 It’s seeming less and less like that Michigan seat is in play although there are 142 days until E-day so things could change. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2020, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/88 "2020-06-14T20:04:49Z")
Awesome! ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2020, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/89 "2020-06-14T22:24:21Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > A new _Des Moines Register_ poll (which Larry Sabato of Crystal Ball calls Iowa’s "gold standard poll) has Joni Ernst trailing by three points. I did not see that one coming. Like with Montana, this is a sudden and unexpected ray of hope. If you like your hope to have a basis in sound understanding of what the poll actually means, it is not. The margin of error for that [poll](https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/13/iowa-poll-theresa-greenfield-leads-joni-ernst-tight-senate-race/5346215002/) is 3.8%. Then there is [understanding the margin of error](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/09/08/understanding-the-margin-of-error-in-election-polls/) for the difference between two candidates, which is not the same thing. > [@](#): > > How do I know if a candidate’s lead is ‘outside the margin of error’? > > News reports about polling will often say that a candidate’s lead is “outside the margin of error” to indicate that a candidate’s lead is greater than what we would expect from sampling error, or that a race is “a statistical tie” if it’s too close to call. It is not enough for one candidate to be ahead by more than the margin of error that is reported for individual candidates (i.e., ahead by more than 3 points, in our example). To determine whether or not the race is too close to call, we need to calculate a new margin of error for the difference between the two candidates’ levels of support. **The size of this margin is generally about twice that of the margin for an individual candidate.** So the margin of error for the difference between the candidates in that poll is about ±7.6%. That is before we even get to the error that is introduced by attempting to estimate likely voters. Greenfield and Ernst have been running neck and neck. That poll shows them continuing to run neck and neck. It really only shows Greenfield taking a lead in the minds of the media who routinely demonstrate ignorance when reporting on polls. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2020, 11:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/90 "2020-06-15T11:34:15Z")
That’s true. In my list of six races, the first two (Iowa and Montana) are basically polling even; the next two (North Carolina and Colorado) are basically polling with a real, but small and fragile, Dem lead; and the last two (Maine and Arizona) are polling with a real, solid, and sizable (though far from irreversible) Dem lead. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2020, 11:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/91 "2020-06-15T11:43:24Z")
(I didn’t put Colorado in the “solid lead” category, despite solid polling a month ago, because Hickenlooper has hit a bit of a [rough patch](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/politics/hickenlooper-on-the-defensive-as-ethics-woes-unsettle-colorado-senate-race/2020/06/12/a5935722-ac05-11ea-a9d9-a81c1a491c52_story.html%3foutputType=amp) in recent days — a few minor ethics violations — and because apparently there’s a bit of a Bernie Bros thing going on with his primary opponent. Might not be a big deal, but I’d rather err on the side of caution, at least until several new high-quality polls are conducted there). ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2020, 11:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/92 "2020-06-15T11:50:48Z")
> [@DinoR](#): > > If you like your hope to have a basis in sound understanding of what the poll actually means, it is not. The margin of error for that [poll](https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/13/iowa-poll-theresa-greenfield-leads-joni-ernst-tight-senate-race/5346215002/) is 3.8%. Then there is [understanding the margin of error](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/09/08/understanding-the-margin-of-error-in-election-polls/) for the difference between two candidates, which is not the same thing. > So the margin of error for the difference between the candidates in that poll is about ±7.6%. That is before we even get to the error that is introduced by attempting to estimate likely voters. > > Greenfield and Ernst have been running neck and neck. That poll shows them continuing to run neck and neck. It really only shows Greenfield taking a lead in the minds of the media who routinely demonstrate ignorance when reporting on polls. It also depends on how you define hope. Running even or even a little behind for an Iowa senate race is good enough for me at this point. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2020, 12:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/93 "2020-06-15T12:29:02Z")
Looking at longer-term tends, I see that the North Carolina polling does indeed suggest a small, fragile Dem lead — BUT the lead hasn’t grown, even as the overall climate for Dems has improved, so I’d be cautious for now and put this in the same “too close to call” category as Iowa and Montana. (Montana _has_ shown more movement toward Dems, but I’d wait for better polling before upgrading it). To balance the stasis in North Carolina, there has been _more_ movement in Arizona than I’d realized — a steady trend in favor of Democrat Mark Kelly. Soon, I might consider this simply an uncompetitive race — think of it as making up for the Alabama loss, to keep the math simple. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2020, 12:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/94 "2020-06-15T12:50:38Z")
Living in NC a Tillis loss here will be a big surprise to me. Same as a Trump loss here but Biden might squeak out a win just as Obama did in 2008. Romney won here in 2012. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2020, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/95 "2020-06-15T13:16:32Z")
While it’s true that a 3-point lead in a poll with a 3.7% margin of error doesn’t mean much, it’s still definitely better than being 3 points behind. And even the latter can fairly be described as a “ray of hope”. And yeah, Alabama’s officially toast, since both of the Republicans in the run-off have a solid and consistent track record of not being Roy Moore. But hey, we were pretty much expecting that. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2020, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/96 "2020-06-15T15:55:55Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > To balance the stasis in North Carolina, there has been _more_ movement in Arizona than I’d realized — a steady trend in favor of Democrat Mark Kelly. Soon, I might consider this simply an uncompetitive race — think of it as making up for the Alabama loss, to keep the math simple. 🙂 You can tell from McSally’s ads. In mid-May they were COVID-related, “We’re in this together.” The last week or so they’ve switched to, “Mark Kelly is in commie-China’s pocket!!1!” based on his involvement a Chinese “high technology firm” wanting to start Arizona operations. Looking into it, I found out it was going to offer rich people high-altitude balloon rides. It’s received several tax breaks with nothing to show for it so far, but that’s pretty much SOP for Arizona. McSally has had via mutual funds investments in Chinese companies, including the balloon one, but her office says she divested them last year. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2020, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/97 "2020-06-15T17:03:39Z")
GOP candidates balance pros, cons of running with Trump: [GOP candidates balance pros, cons of running with Trump](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/06/15/gop-candidates-balance-pros-cons-of-running-with-trump/24524270/) ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2020, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/98 "2020-06-16T15:43:59Z")
Five senate polls covering four races released today (two MI)… U.S. Senate, Ariz., JUN 13-15, 2020, Civiqs, Kelly 51%, McSally 42%, Kelly +9 U.S. Senate, Mich., JUN 12-15, 2020, Marketing Resource Group (MRG), Peters 36%, James 30%, Peters +6 U.S. Senate, Ga., JUN 12-13, 2020, Public Policy Polling\*, Ossoff 45%, Perdue 44%, Ossoff +1 U.S. Senate, N.M., JUN 12-13, 2020, Public Policy Polling, Lujan 48%, Ronchetti 34%, Lujan +14 U.S. Senate, Mich., JUN 9-12, 2020, TIPP, Peters 47%, James 35%, Peters +12 Good news across the board. Maybe a little too good to be believed in the case of Georgia. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2020, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/99 "2020-06-16T18:11:59Z")
Cool, thanks. Yeah, let’s see more polls before getting excited about Georgia. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2020, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/100 "2020-06-25T13:29:24Z")
A+ rated Siena College/The New York Times Upshot released a bunch of swing state polling today that included three senate races. U.S. Senate, N.C., JUN 8-18, 2020, Siena College/The New York Times Upshot, Cunningham 42%, Tillis 39%, Cunningham +3 U.S. Senate, Mich., JUN 8-17, 2020, Siena College/The New York Times Upshot, Peters 41%, James 31%, Peters +10 U.S. Senate, Ariz., JUN 8-16, 2020, Siena College/The New York Times Upshot, Kelly 47%, McSally 38%, Kelly +9 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876.md?page=6)