# U.S. Senate races 2020 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 30, 2020, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876 "2020-04-30T05:17:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2020, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/162 "2020-07-28T16:04:57Z")
14 weeks to election day. The path for D senate control is still clear. Lose Alabama, hold Michigan, gain Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina with additional states in reach of Montana and Iowa if one of those other races should turn in a bad direction. | State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | 7/11/2020 - 7/16/2020 | Spry Strategies | 700 LV | Mark Kelly 48% | Martha McSally 41% | D + 7% | | Arizona | 7/14/2020 - 7/22/2020 | Marist College | 826 RV | Mark Kelly 53% | Martha McSally 41% | D + 12% | | Arizona | 7/21/2020 - 7/22/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 816 V | Mark Kelly 51% | Martha McSally 42% | D + 9% | | Arizona | 7/18/2020 - 7/24/2020 | SSRS | 873 RV | Mark Kelly 50% | Martha McSally 43% | D + 7% | | Arizona | 7/17/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Morning Consult | 908 LV | Mark Kelly 52% | Martha McSally 36% | D + 16% | | Colorado | 7/17/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Morning Consult | 616 LV | John Hickenlooper 48% | Cory Gardner 42% | D + 6% | | Georgia | 7/9/2020 - 7/15/2020 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 800 LV | Jon Ossoff 45% | David A. Perdue 44% | D + 1% | | Georgia | 7/11/2020 - 7/16/2020 | Spry Strategies | 701 LV | Jon Ossoff 44% | David A. Perdue 46% | R + 2% | | Georgia | 7/17/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Morning Consult | 1337 LV | Jon Ossoff 42% | David A. Perdue 45% | R + 3% | | Iowa | 7/11/2020 - 7/16/2020 | Spry Strategies | 701 LV | Theresa Greenfield 45% | Joni K. Ernst 43% | D + 2% | | Kentucky | 7/11/2020 - 7/16/2020 | Spry Strategies | 700 LV | Amy McGrath 33% | Mitch McConnell 55% | R + 22% | | Maine | 7/22/2020 - 7/23/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 561 V | Sara Gideon 47% | Susan M. Collins 42% | D + 5% | | Michigan | 7/11/2020 - 7/16/2020 | Spry Strategies | 700 LV | Gary C. Peters 47% | John James 37% | D + 10% | | Michigan | 7/18/2020 - 7/20/2020 | Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 756 RV | Gary C. Peters 48% | John James 38% | D + 10% | | Michigan | 7/22/2020 - 7/22/2020 | Gravis Marketing | 754 LV | Gary C. Peters 49% | John James 39% | D + 10% | | Michigan | 7/18/2020 - 7/24/2020 | SSRS | 927 RV | Gary C. Peters 54% | John James 38% | D + 16% | | Michigan | 7/17/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Morning Consult | 1320 LV | Gary C. Peters 49% | John James 35% | D + 14% | | Montana | 7/11/2020 - 7/16/2020 | Spry Strategies | 701 LV | Steve Bullock 44% | Steve Daines 47% | R + 3% | | North Carolina | 7/12/2020 - 7/16/2020 | Spry Strategies | 700 LV | Cal Cunningham 40% | Thom Tillis 40% | D + 1% | | North Carolina | 7/14/2020 - 7/22/2020 | Marist College | 882 RV | Cal Cunningham 50% | Thom Tillis 41% | D + 9% | | North Carolina | 7/22/2020 - 7/23/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 939 V | Cal Cunningham 48% | Thom Tillis 40% | D + 8% | | North Carolina | 7/17/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Morning Consult | 1504 LV | Cal Cunningham 46% | Thom Tillis 37% | D + 9% | | South Carolina | 7/13/2020 - 7/19/2020 | brilliant corners Research & Strategies | 800 LV | Jaime Harrison 41% | Lindsey Graham 43% | R + 2% | | South Carolina | 7/15/2020 - 7/20/2020 | ALG Research | 591 LV | Jaime Harrison 45% | Lindsey Graham 49% | R + 4% | | Texas | 7/16/2020 - 7/20/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 880 RV | Mary Jennings Hegar 38% | John Cornyn 47% | R + 9% | | Texas | 7/16/2020 - 7/20/2020 | Spry Strategies | 750 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 37% | John Cornyn 47% | R + 10% | [Source](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/) ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2020, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/163 "2020-07-28T19:54:55Z")
Stay classy, Sen. Perdue!: [Perdue's Senate campaign takes down ad that appears to enlarge nose of Jewish opponent | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/28/politics/david-perdue-jon-ossoff-takes-down-ad/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 12:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/164 "2020-07-29T12:50:35Z")
And you too, Sen. Graham!: [Lindsey Graham campaign ad features image of opponent with digitally altered darker skin tone | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/28/politics/lindsey-graham-jaime-harrison-skin-tone-ad/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![Folacin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/folacin/32/3195_2.png) [@Folacin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folacin)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/165 "2020-07-29T15:34:34Z")
I think the SC numbers are the most surprising - apparently Graham won by something like 16% the last time out. I got a begging email saying that Harrison is within the margin of error, so that is exciting. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/166 "2020-07-29T18:05:42Z")
maybe they hired the guy who did the darker OJ picture for Time right after he killed his ex wife and her friend. ---
**Author:** ![Boycott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boycott/32/6741_2.png) [@Boycott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boycott)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/167 "2020-07-29T18:42:57Z")
The MA Democratic primary is looking fun. You have Joe Kennedy, the grandson of RFK and grand-nephew of JFK and Ted, vacating his House seat to run for Senate. A Kennedy has never lost statewide in MA. Yet he’s running as an outsider, anti-establishment. His opponent for the nomination is Ed Markey. A man who has been in office since 1976. Was in the House until 2013 before becoming a Senator. Someone who is the “progressive” left of the party’s favorite as he is a co-founder of the Green New Deal. Yet his voting record for much of his career is identical to … Joe Biden. Votes and stances that the progressive wing chastised Biden for in the 1970s, 80s, 90s and 2000s like busing, Hyde amendment, Crime Bill, NAFTA, Patriot Act, Iraq were the exact same positions Markey held. One is despised by them and the other hailed a champion. Kennedy naturally faces criticism of being opportunistic and only in this as a stepping stone for his career. If he loses the primary it’s hard to see where his future goes as one of the fall outs of having the most iconic surname in American politics is you’re on a pedestal. It’s almost three months since the last poll. Kennedy was +16 in the first week of May. Since then there have been a few debates and it’s hard to see with essentially just one month to go where the state of the race is. If you ask me whoever wins will just vote party lines. Kennedy is not this right-winger the progressives make him out to be and Markey is not this champion of the left unless they describe Biden that way too (spoiler: they won’t). It’s just fascinating from an outsider view as the ideological split that has been happening in the party for the last few years is operating in reverse for this race. It’s the left of the party desperately trying to keep a 70+ year old career politician in office and it’s the center who want to unseat him running on a call for new leadership. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/168 "2020-07-29T19:05:08Z")
> [@Folacin](#): > > I think the SC numbers are the most surprising - apparently Graham won by something like 16% the last time out. Here’s all the SC polls (including some waaay back). I’m not fully buying that the Palmetto (bug) State is in play, but it may be interesting to keep an eye on it. | State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | South Carolina | 7/15/2020 - 7/20/2020 | ALG Research | 591 LV | Jaime Harrison 45% | Lindsey Graham 49% | R + 4% | | South Carolina | 7/13/2020 - 7/19/2020 | brilliant corners Research & Strategies | 800 LV | Jaime Harrison 41% | Lindsey Graham 43% | R + 2% | | South Carolina | 7/17/2020 - 7/17/2020 | Gravis Marketing | 604 LV | Jaime Harrison 41% | Lindsey Graham 48% | R + 7% | | South Carolina | 5/23/2020 - 5/26/2020 | Civiqs | 591 RV | Jaime Harrison 42% | Lindsey Graham 42% | Even | | South Carolina | 3/3/2020 - 3/11/2020 | brilliant corners Research & Strategies | 804 LV | Jaime Harrison 43% | Lindsey Graham 47% | R + 4% | | South Carolina | 2/18/2020 - 2/21/2020 | Marist College | 2382 RV | Jaime Harrison 37% | Lindsey Graham 54% | R + 17% | | South Carolina | 1/31/2020 - 2/2/2020 | East Carolina University | 1756 RV | Jaime Harrison 38% | Lindsey Graham 51% | R + 13% | | South Carolina | 12/6/2019 - 12/11/2019 | Change Research | 998 LV | Jaime Harrison 45% | Lindsey Graham 47% | R + 2% | | South Carolina | 10/15/2019 - 10/21/2019 | Benchmark Research | 450 RV | Jaime Harrison 30% | Lindsey Graham 53% | R + 23% | | South Carolina | 9/17/2019 - 9/21/2019 | Change Research | 809 LV | Jaime Harrison 43% | Lindsey Graham 50% | R + 7% | | South Carolina | 6/11/2019 - 6/14/2019 | Change Research | 2312 RV | Jaime Harrison 35% | Lindsey Graham 52% | R + 17% | | South Carolina | 3/11/2019 - 3/13/2019 | WPA Intelligence (WPAi) | 500 LV | Jaime Harrison 32% | Lindsey Graham 55% | R + 23% | [Source](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/) ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/169 "2020-07-29T19:25:09Z")
> [@Boycott](#): > > The MA Democratic primary is looking fun. > > You have Joe Kennedy, the grandson of RFK and grand-nephew of JFK and Ted, vacating his House seat to run for Senate. A Kennedy has never lost statewide in MA. Yet he’s running as an outsider, anti-establishment. > > His opponent for the nomination is Ed Markey. A man who has been in office since 1976… Since I suppose their policy views are very similar now, **Boycott** , and barring some scandal, is there something to be said for backing the younger candidate? ---
**Author:** ![Boycott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boycott/32/6741_2.png) [@Boycott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boycott)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/170 "2020-07-29T20:20:39Z")
It’s a weird choice to make. Markey is rather unremarkable until his recent popularity among younger, left wing people for the Green New Deal alliance with AOC and “the squad”. Kennedy is rather unremarkable if it wasn’t for his last name. You can’t shake off the suspicion Kennedy is in this as part of the bigger ambition. I don’t understand why he couldn’t have waited and built a name for himself in Congress. He’s still young and the wait might have not been long if Warren vacates her Senate seat to join a Biden Administration in which he could have served along with Markey. For that reason I am tempted to stick with Markey. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/171 "2020-07-29T20:23:39Z")
You mention that Markey’s voting record is similar to Biden. Is there an easy way to look that comparison up? Not that I don’t believe you, but I’m interested to dig into that. Thanks in advance. ---
**Author:** ![Boycott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boycott/32/6741_2.png) [@Boycott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boycott)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/172 "2020-07-29T23:43:23Z")
There’s not an easy way to compare unless you manually go through the congressional record. Those votes I mentioned that Biden got hammered for are things that are easy to look up because of their significance in being brought up in the Democratic primary. Markey did support them too. However the best way to compare is by ratings conducted by special interest groups who monitor politicians voting and keep a scorecard. Unfortunately you can’t go back through their whole careers and certain years are outliers but generally you can see there is a lot of overlap: > **[Ed Markey on the Issues](https://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/Ed_Markey.htm)** > **[The Voter's Self Defense System](https://justfacts.votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/26900/ed-markey)** > > Vote Smart provides free, unbiased, in-depth information about current officials, candidates, issues, legislation, and voting. Non-partisan and nonprofit since 1988. > **[Joe Biden on the Issues](https://www.ontheissues.org/Joe_Biden.htm)** > **[The Voter's Self Defense System](https://justfacts.votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/53279/joe-biden-jr)** > > Vote Smart provides free, unbiased, in-depth information about current officials, candidates, issues, legislation, and voting. Non-partisan and nonprofit since 1988. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2020, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/173 "2020-07-30T15:21:29Z")
Thanks Boycott! ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2020, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/174 "2020-07-31T13:06:12Z")
The latest CNN overview of polling for the U.S. Senate races - still looking good for Dems: [3 charts show how GOP is losing chance to keep Senate | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/31/politics/senate-map-republicans/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2020, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/175 "2020-07-31T16:57:34Z")
Here’s about four months of tracking the PredictIt senate control market. Most of July has been pretty steady, but things were flipped the other way just a few months ago. [![Google Photos](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/UGG1Afh3S6hYeYjyCpOS2cEeyTOfSRjnZXz4hXYeOXMP-BpEjX8XFUfXe5fI21QWICf5euIqbkrZQd_pG7W0wkwjF8S1t-3WDh3M-I3K3JHhO8Mc7IcgkXfrJknFekg-7juB8eyz8Q=w523-h285-p-k "New item by K S") ](https://photos.app.goo.gl/kKkAUEoXV8FnHZ7y6) Here’s a current snapshot of competitive races. Note: Colorado and Arizona no longer qualify as competitive. [![Google Photos](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/Cm0vAaeA52chrs_hAbE9RFUZa5ixyI_qGAuRrMm6gqqLd03IHGfL2ZF2-gsj-gUGKOMWS2MbpIWr64CXJ35phZ_KxRdVZO6FtZtrNlOZBqRaOdoxX-2apqna5GGFAE6WNKspNE14Rg=w377-h196-p-k "New item by K S") ](https://photos.app.goo.gl/7Pk41WMcKYDfxNt77) ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2020, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/176 "2020-07-31T17:30:13Z")
Both Colorado and Arizona predicted to go blue? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2020, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/177 "2020-07-31T17:59:47Z")
Correct. Colorado and Arizona look like they are both easy blue pick ups right now. Things can change of course, but that’s the current state of things. Both states each have a single recent poll that is somewhat close. But neither McSally (R-AZ) or Gardner (R-CO) have led in a single poll recently. Recent Arizona polls: | State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | 7/24/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Change Research | 365 LV | Mark Kelly 47% | Martha McSally 45% | D + 2% | | Arizona | 7/17/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Morning Consult | 908 LV | Mark Kelly 52% | Martha McSally 36% | D + 16% | | Arizona | 7/18/2020 - 7/24/2020 | SSRS | 873 RV | Mark Kelly 50% | Martha McSally 43% | D + 7% | | Arizona | 7/19/2020 - 7/23/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 858 LV | Mark Kelly 53% | Martha McSally 35% | D + 18% | | Arizona | 7/21/2020 - 7/22/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 816 V | Mark Kelly 51% | Martha McSally 42% | D + 9% | | Arizona | 7/14/2020 - 7/22/2020 | Marist College | 826 RV | Mark Kelly 53% | Martha McSally 41% | D + 12% | | Arizona | 7/11/2020 - 7/16/2020 | Spry Strategies | 700 LV | Mark Kelly 48% | Martha McSally 41% | D + 7% | | Arizona | 7/10/2020 - 7/12/2020 | Change Research | 345 LV | Mark Kelly 52% | Martha McSally 45% | D + 7% | | Arizona | 7/7/2020 - 7/10/2020 | YouGov | 1087 LV | Mark Kelly 46% | Martha McSally 42% | D + 4% | | Arizona | 7/6/2020 - 7/7/2020 | OH Predictive Insights | 600 LV | Mark Kelly 52% | Martha McSally 43% | D + 9% | All Colorado polls: | State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Colorado | 7/17/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Morning Consult | 616 LV | John Hickenlooper 48% | Cory Gardner 42% | D + 6% | | Colorado | 6/29/2020 - 6/30/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 840 V | John Hickenlooper 51% | Cory Gardner 40% | D + 11% | | Colorado | 5/1/2020 - 5/3/2020 | Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson | 600 LV | John Hickenlooper 54% | Cory Gardner 36% | D + 18% | | Colorado | 4/10/2020 - 4/19/2020 | Montana State University Bozeman | 379 LV | John Hickenlooper 48% | Cory Gardner 31% | D + 17% | | Colorado | 10/10/2019 - 10/14/2019 | Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson | 500 LV | John Hickenlooper 53% | Cory Gardner 42% | D + 11% | | Colorado | 8/16/2019 - 8/19/2019 | Emerson College | 1000 RV | John Hickenlooper 52% | Cory Gardner 40% | D + 13% | | Colorado | 8/8/2019 - 8/11/2019 | Public Policy Polling | 739 V | John Hickenlooper 51% | Cory Gardner 38% | D + 13% | [Source](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/) ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2020, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/178 "2020-07-31T18:11:56Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Both states each have a single recent poll that is somewhat close. But neither McSally (R-AZ) or Gardner (R-CO) have led in a single poll recently. I hope you’re right, but Kelly’s margin has diminished since the state was flooded with McConnell-paid ads claiming he was “in Communist China’s pocket!!1!!” ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2020, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/179 "2020-07-31T18:32:36Z")
I don’t believe that this is true. How are you measuring Kelly’s margin? ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2020, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/180 "2020-07-31T18:44:34Z")
Look at your own list. The ‘D’ margin was bouncing around from 18 to 7 percent in the earlier polls but has dropped to 2% in the latest. I’ve seen the same trend in other polls not in your table. At least it’s still a lead but you know how fickle voters are. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2020, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876/181 "2020-07-31T19:05:54Z")
You said, “I hope you’re right, but Kelly’s margin has diminished since the state was flooded with McConnell-paid ads claiming he was “in Communist China’s pocket!!1!!”” But the Kelly +2 poll was in the field the same time as a Kelly +16 poll. It’s not like one came before McConnell ads and the other after. Two of Kelly’s largest margin polls were released this week. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/u-s-senate-races-2020/852876.md?page=10)