Big-picture discussions here, or your thoughts on particular races that might not merit a thread all their own.
Democrats need to shift just three seats, and Republicans seem to be nervous:
States in serious play: Colorado, Arizona, Maine and North Carolina
Other states in play: Georgia, Iowa, Montana and even Kansas
Polling here in South Carolina indicates we’ve got at least some chance against Graham. It’s thin, but for the first time in a while it’s there.
And yes, The R should be nervous. The President’s underwater by 10% and the generic congressional favors the D side by 7.7% as of this morning.
The four states “in serious play” are about toss-ups right now, according to the Wikipedia summary.
I’d extend the four “Other states” into a list of eight Senate seats: Georgia is electing TWO Senators this cycle; the Blues have a chance at each of them. Incumbent Jones of Alabama is a long-shot to win re-election, but has about the same chance as Bollier scoring an upset in Kansas, according to Wikipedia. (Bollier BTW was an R until switching parties in 2018.) Michigan should be included in a list of key elections: Incumbent Democrat Peters looks vulnerable. And Republican Corbyn in Texas is not a shoo-in.
Of the 12 Senate seats just listed, the D’s need to win five to get 50-50, or win six to get an absolute majority.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Mark Kelly beats Martha McSally; she’s not well-liked.
Yeah, the current polling numbers in Arizona are Kelly 49, McSally 41. Kelly’s led in polls for more than two months.
I’m not sure where septimus is getting his ‘toss up’ figures from but Arizona should only be in that column if we’re being extremely conservative.
Would be surprised if NC goes blue but it will be close. Last Dems to win here were Kay Hagan in 2008 and John Edwards in 98.
I don’t think Peters in MI will be that seriously challenged. The Michigan GOP seems to think that James is their great hope but I’m just not seeing it.
I think Susan Collins is the most in danger. When that result comes in, we’ll have a good idea of how the rest of the night is going. The Alabama seat will likely be a loss for the Dems, I’d be happy with a 50-50 split and Vice President Kamala Harris breaking ties.
I would not at all be surprised if McConnell goes down. Maybe wishful thinking, but he isn’t that popular in KY.
**Arizona **looks good for the Dems. Kelly(D) leads every poll I’ve seen.
**NC **is a toss up, leaning Republican Tills (R) over Cunningham (D)
Michigan, Peters(D) leads every poll by a comfortable margin.
I’ve only seen 1 poll for **Maine **and am surprised CNN lists it as in serious play but the PPP (a dem polling group) shows Gideon (D) 47, Collins (R) 43. Some digging suggests Collins has tainted herself with Trump and lost some of her prior support. A February poll also has Gideon slight ahead.
I just use Wikipedia’s table. There, 4 out of 5 “rating agencies” show Tossup, with only Sabato as Lean-D. (Sabato is the most recent ratings shown; Daily Kos’s haven’t been updated since March 9.)
(I’m sure there are other, better summary pages, but I’m used to Wikipedia. :o )
Corey Gardner is toast as the demographic changes sweeping Colorado only continue.
Kansas just elected a Dem as governor and Kris Kobach is Trump tainted (that may not be as damaging in Kansas as it is in more advanced parts of the nation); Bollier, a recently converted Republican, can beat him.
In Montana, the popular Dem governor is running for the Senate. He has proven not just that a Dem can win a statewide race there but that HE can as well.
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball just moved Alaska from “Safe R” to “Lean R” today.
It’s still an uphill climb but a majority can be reached. The Dem candidates’ best campaign weapon remains every time Donald Trump goes on television and reveals his unfitness.
So to speak.
Kansas Republicans are understandably nervous. As mentioned above, Kobach has the stink of Trump all over him, and Pompeo keeps dancing around whether he will run or not, but at this point he may be Trump-tainted even worse than Kobach. I think it’s been over 100 years since Kansas elected a Democratic senator.
By the way, I didn’t know that Bollier was a former Republican, which makes me a little nervous, but at least the Democrats aren’t trotting out their favorite GOP punching bag, Paul Davis, this time around.
I dunno in what world CO is considered a toss-up. Gardner barely won the seat, the Dems made massive gains in 2018, old republicans continue to die and get replaced by non-republican transplants, and Hickenlooper is the strongest candidate they could have hope for. If they don’t pick up this seat, then I don’t see how they could pick up any of them.
I worry that this South Carolina race is the kind Democrats nationally and particularly online get all excited about and raise a ton of out-of-state donations, only for the republican incumbent to win by nine points.
Agreed. You could kinda sorta put Kentucky, where Amy McGrath is raising all kinds of money to battle the Turtle, in that same boat.
I have created a PredictIt derived Senate Thermometer that tweets an update every day at 4:42 PM MT.
The data is a little incomplete right now but that should shape up well before November.
Here’s every race where both team D and team R have at least a 10% chance of winning. * Indicates special election.
MI 83.6%
AZ* 83.0%
ME 74.0%
NC 63.2%
MT 45.4%
GA* 26.8%
KS 25.0%
GA 22.3%
IA 21.2%
Notably, Colorado is not on this list because as of right now a Dem victory is > 90% likely.
I’ll tell you when I knew Cory Garner was toast. It was July 9, 2017.
I don’t understand. Is the percentage shown, the likelihood of the Dem candidate winning?
Correct.
My mistake. I should have made that clear.
More specifically it is the implied probability from the PredictIt market for that race, debiased for favorite-longshot bias.