UBI in the US (from the Andrew Yang thread in Elections)

[Heffalump_and_Roo]

This discussion starting here was copied from The Andrew Yang thread in elections since it’s more about UBI.

@DSeid

My WAG is that awareness of the UBI concept is pretty flat since the first debate and that net unfavorability of it is also unchanged. His likable style has won some new supporters, but the idea that he means to promote has just been a lead balloon. Rightfully so mind you.

@Heffalump_and_Roo

Krystal Ball tweet from 1/26/20:

@Krystal Ball from The Hill

This is actually crazy. @AndrewYang has moved the needle an insane amount on this.

From the latest Emerson poll, from 1/23-26/20 favorabilty of UBI is at 53%.

Emerson College Polling/@7News Iowa Poll:

Would you be supportive of a Universal Basic Income of $1000 a month?

53% yes
30% no
17% unsure

The majority of voters, 53%, support candidate Andrew Yang’s signature policy of Universal Basic Income of $1000 a month for all U.S. citizens over the age of 18. This contrasts to 30% who do not support the plan and 17% who are unsure. Those 18-29 years old are the most likely to support this policy, with 83% of support. A majority (61%) of those 30-49 years support UBI, while only 45% of those 50-64, and 32% of those 65 and older support the policy.

That’s up from 48% favorable/52% unfavorable in a Gallup poll in 2/18. Or up from 43% in a another Gallup poll comparing other countries in June 2019. Or up from 49% favorable/ 52% unfavorable in a The Hill/HarrisX poll in September 2019. In the video, they reported an increase from February 2019 which showed a 43% favorability with the same question.

Yang says that their internal polling shows UBI favorability at 61%.

@Heffalump_and_Roo

Looking back at the data, these polls are not exactly an apples to apples match to the Emerson poll. The Emerson poll included registered Democrats and Independents. The Gallup polls included Republicans. The HarrisX poll is unclear. Since I couldn’t find any other UBI poll that matched the data set exactly, these are guideposts for reference.

@DSeid

You can go to the 2/18 Gallup poll itself to see the breakout to make a bit more apples to apples.

In that Gallup poll before Yang’s campaign it was 65% favorable/35% unfavorable among Democrats and 48%/52% among Independents.

The current Emerson 53% favorable number is just likely Iowa Democratic caucus goers.

Still different varieties of apples but more consistent with a LOSS of support for the idea since Yang than an increase.

Looking at the Hill/HarrisX September poll among Democrats it was 66% favorable and Independents ran 48% Favorable - up from their 2/19 poll, less than the newest Emerson results, and on par with Gallups 2/18 numbers.

It would be a bit insane to look at the Emerson number and claim that he’s moved the needle an insane amount on this.

Yes, considering that Iowa is a more conservative state even with regards to Democrats, it’s difficult to make an apples to apples comparison.

Krystal Ball gave a little more explanation for why she noted that it was insane how much Yang had moved the needle on UBI. She noted [youtube timestamped] that before he started talking about UBI, it wasn’t even being polled. That matches my experience of trying to find polls before 2018 on UBI. By 2018, the polls I’ve listed are already showing some gains Yang has made in publicizing his view.

It would have been interesting to see the internal polling for UBI that Hillary probably did when she was considering putting the UBI platform in her campaign. She was going to call it Alaska for America. Ultimately, she decided against it because she was running after Obama and didn’t want to make it seem like he should have done it. Also, she was trying to get the taxes from fossil fuels which would go against the climate change message. Her other messaging though would have been very similar to Yang’s messaging on the Alaska UBI and the carbon tax and financial transaction tax. She says she couldn’t really find a way to get the messaging to integrate into the rest of the platform of the campaign.

Hillary Clinton on UBI [youtube]

In another video, she wonders what would have happened if she tried it. I too wonder since she had the name recognition that Yang doesn’t have. But I think Yang’s messaging is better because of the timing and because it integrates better into his platform.

Obama has also been speaking about UBI, and I also wonder how he could have changed the discussion about it if he had talked about it more while he was President.
Obama on AI and UBI [youtube]

This clip is almost identical to Yang’s platform.