# UK EU In/Out referendum-:Polling day thread. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 23, 2016, 8:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125 "2016-06-23T08:12:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2016, 5:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/301 "2016-06-30T05:41:58Z")
> [@mascaroni](#): > > No such burden of proof was set when Ted Heath took us into the EEC. Tory policy in the 1970 election manifesto was to negotiate entry to the EEC and, if it considered the entry terms to be in the interests of Britain, to seek parliamentayr approval to join. They won the election on that manifesto. The subsequently sought and obtained Parliamentary approval to join. Then they joined. So, the hurdle set in 1970 was (a) win an election on a manifesto to join, subject to parliamentary approval, and then (b) seek parliamentary approval. This is a higher hurdle than simply winning a referendum, since it requires approval by the voters of the principle of joining, plus approval by parliament of actually joining, when the terms and other details are known. The idea of the referendum superseding Parliament, so that the view of Parliament become irrelevant and Parliament has no part in approving the decision, is, I’m pretty sure, a constitutional novelty in the UK, and I seriously doubt that it is a good one. Nevertheless, it’s one to which I think the major parties have committed, and on this occasion I think they have no choice but to follow through. The lesson for future occasions is perhaps (a) don’t promote a referendum seeking approval for a course of action unless it’s a course of action which government and parliament already favour, and (b) don’t promote a referendum asking the public to decide on a question when important details remain unknown but, if you must do that, make it clear that the referendum is purely advisory and Parliament will have the final say when the details are known. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2016, 9:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/302 "2016-06-30T09:41:23Z")
> [@UDS](#): > > Tory policy in the 1970 election manifesto was to negotiate entry to the EEC and, if it considered the entry terms to be in the interests of Britain, to seek parliamentayr approval to join. They won the election on that manifesto. The subsequently sought and obtained Parliamentary approval to join. Then they joined. > > So, the hurdle set in 1970 was (a) win an election on a manifesto to join, subject to parliamentary approval, and then (b) seek parliamentary approval. > > This is a higher hurdle than simply winning a referendum, since it requires approval by the voters of the principle of joining, plus approval by parliament of actually joining, when the terms and other details are known. > > The idea of the referendum superseding Parliament, so that the view of Parliament become irrelevant and Parliament has no part in approving the decision, is, I’m pretty sure, a constitutional novelty in the UK, and I seriously doubt that it is a good one. The promise to hold a referendum on the EU was part of the Tories’ manifesto in 2015. So they won parliamentary authority to hold a referendum from the electorate and then held one. And this was also known for the 2014 Scottish referendum. ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2016, 11:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/303 "2016-06-30T11:17:18Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > The promise to hold a referendum on the EU was part of the Tories’ manifesto in 2015. So they won parliamentary authority to hold a referendum from the electorate and then held one. And this was also known for the 2014 Scottish referendum. Yes, I agree. They unquestionably had a mandate to hold the referendum. And, if I’m not mistaken, their manifesto included a commitment to “respect the outcome”. Now, you can split finnicky hairs about whether that’s the same as a commitment to _implement_ the outcome, but to my simple mind it is. So I think the Conservatives now have a mandate which not only allows but positively requires them to take Britain out of the EU - on the least awful terms they can negotiate, undoubtedly, but staying in, or using this referendum vote as brinksmanship to try and negotiate better terms for staying in, is not really on. My point is that this was a very stupid and irresponsible thing to do. But it’s done. The only way out of this for the Conservatives is to go to the country on a manifesto of _not_ implementing the outcome. Were they to win, they would then have a mandate not to implement the referendum. I don’t think they have any appetite to seek that mandate, if they did seek it in the near term, I don’t think they’d get it. ---
**Author:** ![mascaroni](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/dc4da7/32.png) [@mascaroni](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mascaroni)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2016, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/304 "2016-06-30T15:17:09Z")
> [@UDS](#): > > Tory policy in the 1970 election manifesto was to negotiate entry to the EEC and, if it considered the entry terms to be in the interests of Britain, to seek parliamentayr approval to join. They won the election on that manifesto. The subsequently sought and obtained Parliamentary approval to join. Then they joined. > > So, the hurdle set in 1970 was (a) win an election on a manifesto to join, subject to parliamentary approval, and then (b) seek parliamentary approval. > > This is a higher hurdle than simply winning a referendum, since it requires approval by the voters of the principle of joining, plus approval by parliament of actually joining, when the terms and other details are known. > > The idea of the referendum superseding Parliament, so that the view of Parliament become irrelevant and Parliament has no part in approving the decision, is, I’m pretty sure, a constitutional novelty in the UK, and I seriously doubt that it is a good one. > > Nevertheless, it’s one to which I think the major parties have committed, and on this occasion I think they have no choice but to follow through. The lesson for future occasions is perhaps (a) don’t promote a referendum seeking approval for a course of action unless it’s a course of action which government and parliament already favour, and (b) don’t promote a referendum asking the public to decide on a question when important details remain unknown but, if you must do that, make it clear that the referendum is purely advisory and Parliament will have the final say when the details are known. 46.4% on a 72% turnout voted Conservative in that election. If 51.8% isn’t enough, 46.4% obviously isn’t. ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2016, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/305 "2016-06-30T16:20:15Z")
Conservative grandee and former leadership contender Lord Heseltine has launched a scathing attack on Boris Johnson: “I think there will be a profound sense of dismay and frankly contempt. He’s ripped the party apart. He’s created the greatest constitutional crisis of modern times. “He’s knocked billions off the value of the nation’s savings. He’s like a general that led his army to the sound of guns and at the sight of the battlefield, abandoned the field - to the claims of his adjutant who said he wasn’t up to the job in the first place. “I have never seen so contemptible and irresponsible a situation”. Asked whether Boris feels ashamed? “I have no idea. I know he should be”. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2016, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/306 "2016-06-30T16:33:37Z")
> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#): > > Conservative grandee and former leadership contender Lord Heseltine has launched a scathing attack on Boris Johnson: Heseltine precipitated the downfall of Thatcher. He didn’t get the top job either. So it’s a case of the pot calling the kettle black. ---
**Author:** ![mascaroni](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/dc4da7/32.png) [@mascaroni](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mascaroni)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2016, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/307 "2016-06-30T17:20:55Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Heseltine precipitated the downfall of Thatcher. He didn’t get the top job either. So it’s a case of the pot calling the kettle black. Although Heseltine would have no doubt been delighted to have done so, Geoffrey Howe is widely credited as being the catalyst for Thatcher’s resignation. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2016, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/308 "2016-06-30T17:23:43Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Heseltine precipitated the downfall of Thatcher. Geoffrey Howe gets the honour for that, surely? ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2016, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/309 "2016-06-30T17:51:43Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > Geoffrey Howe gets the honour for that, surely? Howe’s speech was the final straw but Heseltine had long been on manoeuvres. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2016, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/310 "2016-06-30T18:03:56Z")
Interesting article on the legal force of Brexit: [Can the law stop Brexit?](http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-uk-leaves-the-eu-36671629) The upshot is that the PM may not have the constitutional authority to invoke Article 50 without an Act of Parliament. The article brings up a series of scenarios that could prevent Leave: 1. PM defers to Parliament initially, and they vote to Remain (or against Leave, same difference). According to the article, a majority of MP’s favor Remain. 2. PM invokes Article 50, it’s challenged in court, he loses, and Parliament votes to Remain. 3. Scotland ‘blocks’ Leave by refusing to agree to a UK Parliamentary Act. This assumes that the PM can’t invoke Article 50 unilaterally, and Parliament passes an Act. (Not a particularly likely event, but…) 4. A second referendum. (Least likely of all.) ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2016, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/311 "2016-06-30T18:38:10Z")
Conversely, [some are arguing](http://www.politico.eu/article/could-article-50-have-been-triggered-already-brexit/) that we may see Article 50 as having been activated already. ---
**Author:** ![mascaroni](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/dc4da7/32.png) [@mascaroni](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mascaroni)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2016, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/312 "2016-06-30T19:31:03Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Interesting article on the legal force of Brexit: > > [Can the law stop Brexit?](http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-uk-leaves-the-eu-36671629) [Another article](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/30/politics-brexit-unlawful-eu-uk) suggesting there could be a legal challenge. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2016, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/313 "2016-06-30T19:57:27Z")
Nicola Sturgeon has been told in [diplo speak to get lost](http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36656980). ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2016, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/314 "2016-07-01T01:01:09Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Nicola Sturgeon has been told in [diplo speak to get lost](http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36656980). Well, no surprise there. The EU’s position will very strongly be that they are not going to be party, or to be seen to be party, or to be possibly remotely seen to be party, to breaking up the UK or to facilitating or encouraging the breakup of the UK. So, Scots Nats who are thinking in terms of Scotland seceding from the UK so as to remain in the EU need to deal with the UK _first_. Once it’s established\* that there’s going to be an independent Scotland, the EU will fall on them with glad cries. Until the, zip. - And, by “established”, I don’t mean that the Scots have expressed a desire for independence. I mean that the UK has officially and openly accepted that Scotland is going to be independent. ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2016, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/315 "2016-07-01T02:22:50Z")
> [@mascaroni](#): > > 46.4% on a 72% turnout voted Conservative in that election. If 51.8% isn’t enough, 46.4% obviously isn’t. Oddly enough, in British political culture it can be enough, and more than enough. The UK is blessed or burdened (depending on your point of view) with the doctrine of parliamentary supremacy. When it comes to political mandates, this has two corollaries that we need to note here: First, a political mandate secured in a general election trumps a political mandate secured in any other way. Secondly, in a general election a plurality of votes (less than a majority of votes, but more votes than anyone else has got) _does_ confer a mandate, provided it is spread in such a way as to secure a majority of seats (which is not difficult, under the charmingly retro British electoral system). If a 50%+ vote is required for a mandate, then I think no single party has secured a mandate to govern the UK since the Liberals in 1880. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2016, 10:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/316 "2016-07-01T10:50:54Z")
> [@UDS](#): > > Well, no surprise there. > > The EU’s position will very strongly be that they are not going to be party, or to be seen to be party, or to be possibly remotely seen to be party, to breaking up the UK or to facilitating or encouraging the breakup of the UK. > > So, Scots Nats who are thinking in terms of Scotland seceding from the UK so as to remain in the EU need to deal with the UK _first_. Once it’s established\* that there’s going to be an independent Scotland, the EU will fall on them with glad cries. Until the, zip. > > - And, by “established”, I don’t mean that the Scots have expressed a desire for independence. I mean that the UK has officially and openly accepted that Scotland is going to be independent. Yeah, but obviously no one has manged to tell the Nats that.😃 Sturgeon really messed up with her “Second Indy Ref” claim did’nt she. She should have waited and seen which way the political winds were going before committing herself. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2016, 11:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/317 "2016-07-01T11:33:16Z")
> [@UDS](#): > > Well, no surprise there. > > The EU’s position will very strongly be that they are not going to be party, or to be seen to be party, or to be possibly remotely seen to be party, to breaking up the UK or to facilitating or encouraging the breakup of the UK. If for no other reason than the need to avoid encouraging _other_ independence-minded regions (hello Catalonia) from trying to secede. That way lies instability as much as losing members does. > [@AK84](#): > > Sturgeon really messed up with her “Second Indy Ref” claim did’nt she. She should have waited and seen which way the political winds were going before committing herself. Eh, she couldn’t really have said anything else. It’s the whole SNP raison d’etre. She’d have taken flak from her party if she hadn’t. I’m half-surprised Martin McGuinness jumped on that bandwagon so quickly though. He always struck me as more of a “long game” kind of guy. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2016, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/318 "2016-07-01T18:14:35Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Sturgeon really messed up with her “Second Indy Ref” claim did’nt she. She should have waited and seen which way the political winds were going before committing herself. > [@Gyrate](#): > > I’m half-surprised Martin McGuinness jumped on that bandwagon so quickly though. He always struck me as more of a “long game” kind of guy. I think neither of them had any illusions about their respective countries getting out immediately, or without a lot of work. They just had to immediately get it _on the record_ that Brexit had changed the terms of the whole deal. ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2016, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/319 "2016-07-02T02:37:33Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Yeah, but obviously no one has manged to tell the Nats that.😃 > > Sturgeon really messed up with her “Second Indy Ref” claim did’nt she. She should have waited and seen which way the political winds were going before committing herself. She’s posturing. From her point of view, now is not a terribly good time for a second referendum, but she doesn’t want to be the one to say that there’ll be no second referendum. Partly because that would be embarrassing for any Scots Nat First Minister, and partly (in fairness to her) because there is probably some political leverage for Scotland that can be had by making noise about this, and she’s not going to abandon that. ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2016, 1:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/320 "2016-07-03T13:09:05Z")
Research suggests [around 7%](http://metro.co.uk/2016/07/02/bregret-1-2million-brexit-backers-regret-voting-to-leave-the-eu-5980332/) (1.2 million people) of Leave backers feel they made the wrong choice. Approximately [75% of young people](http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/30/students-say-they-could-fail-their-exams-because-theyre-grieving-about-brexit-5976730/) who had their say in the referendum voted to remain in the EU, though only a third of young people actually voted. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125.md?page=15)