# UK football, season 2008/09, forecasts **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [August 7, 2008, 12:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-football-season-2008-09-forecasts/459150 "2008-08-07T12:09:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 30
**Author:** ![chowder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/977dab/32.png) [@chowder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chowder)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2009, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-football-season-2008-09-forecasts/459150/581 "2009-01-30T19:18:17Z")
[quote=“villa, post:579, topic:459150”] I didn’t know you were a postie. My God, a postman and a City fan. QUOTE] I wasn’t always a postie. Up until December 1990 I was a skilled engineer then the firm I had worked for for yonks went tits up and the whole workforce were made repugnant. Out of collar for 4 months then started at the PO as a common or garden postie. My natural aptitude coupled with amazing charm and charisma was quickly noticed by the upper management and I was invited to apply for the job of nightshift manager which naturally I got (see opening lines) In 2004 I offered to take a delivery out that would otherwise have failed, I had a bloody accident and was medically retired 6 months later on full benefits and pension. * * * Anyways enough of this, City are now in the top half of the table where they rightly belong. In your faces Wigan and Newcastle ---
**Author:** ![villa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/bc79bd/32.png) [@villa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/villa)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2009, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-football-season-2008-09-forecasts/459150/582 "2009-01-30T19:46:58Z")
How come no one has mentioned Robinho’s roving hands yet? ---
**Author:** ![villa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/bc79bd/32.png) [@villa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/villa)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2009, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-football-season-2008-09-forecasts/459150/583 "2009-01-30T19:49:14Z")
> [@chowder](#): > > Up until December 1990 I was a skilled engineer then the firm I had worked for for yonks went tits up and the whole workforce were made repugnant. I did some research work with the AEU/Confed a little after this. I wasn’t impressed with the management skills and entrepreneurial ability of the controllers of much of British engineering (that much that the Thatch had left alive, that is). ---
**Author:** ![chowder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/977dab/32.png) [@chowder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chowder)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2009, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-football-season-2008-09-forecasts/459150/584 "2009-01-30T20:06:11Z")
> [@villa](#): > > How come no one has mentioned Robinho’s roving hands yet? I was wondering how long it would take someone who obviously reads The Sun to make some sort of comment 😉 Alleged roving hands, my good man ---
**Author:** ![Busy\_Scissors](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/d78d45/32.png) [@Busy\_Scissors](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Busy_Scissors)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2009, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-football-season-2008-09-forecasts/459150/585 "2009-01-30T20:24:43Z")
> [@garius](#): > > In other news, shockingly, it is looking increasingly likely that Arsenal might actually be about to sign someone who is legally old enough to drink. > > Sky News are reporting that we’ve had a work permit request for Arshavin accepted. They need about 6 players to be fair, worst Arsenal side for a long time I’ve seen play Everton - they seem to be deteriorating the longer they go unbeaten. We still didn’t beat them, like ☹ Awesome goal by RVP. I wonder what the point of Arshavin is at the Arse. You sign a pacey, skillful, lightweight ponce to go with the other 5 ponces currently mincing around the Emirates midfield. A different flavour of player is needed. ---
**Author:** ![villa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/bc79bd/32.png) [@villa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/villa)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2009, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-football-season-2008-09-forecasts/459150/586 "2009-01-30T20:28:03Z")
> [@chowder](#): > > I was wondering how long it would take someone who obviously reads The Sun to make some sort of comment 😉 > > Alleged roving hands, my good man The Sun has words in it??? And had Rooney, for example, been caught with some “alleged” molestation of a woman, I am sure you would have shown great restraint and would not have broken the land speed record getting to a computer to post about it. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![villa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/bc79bd/32.png) [@villa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/villa)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2009, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-football-season-2008-09-forecasts/459150/587 "2009-01-30T20:29:05Z")
> [@Busy\_Scissors](#): > > I wonder what the point of Arshavin is at the Arse. You sign a pacey, skillful, lightweight ponce to go with the other 5 ponces currently mincing around the Emirates midfield. A different flavour of player is needed. I just had a horrific vision of a Vinnie Jones comeback at Arsenal, then. ---
**Author:** ![Discordia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Discordia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Discordia)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2009, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-football-season-2008-09-forecasts/459150/588 "2009-01-30T20:34:00Z")
> [@Busy\_Scissors](#): > > They need about 6 players to be fair, worst Arsenal side for a long time I’ve seen play Everton - they seem to be deteriorating the longer they go unbeaten. We still didn’t beat them, like ☹ Awesome goal by RVP. > I wonder what the point of Arshavin is at the Arse. You sign a pacey, skillful, lightweight ponce to go with the other 5 ponces currently mincing around the Emirates midfield. A different flavour of player is needed. This myth is so annoying. Arsenal (or any team) don’t need some goon (pun intended) in order to be a good side. Fabregas protects the ball far better than the worthless lumps of an Allardyce Bolton, for example. Steals the ball from people better too. You don’t need some leg-breaker to win things. Hell, look at United. Carrick? Scholes? Fletcher? Giggs? They aren’t exactly bruisers. And they do need more creative/skillful players, the rest are all injured (which has nothing to do with lightweightedness, just shitty luck. They were random/freak injuries). ETA: As for Robinho, probably because people don’t hate him, and the case sounds strange/hard to believe. ---
**Author:** ![villa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/bc79bd/32.png) [@villa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/villa)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2009, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-football-season-2008-09-forecasts/459150/589 "2009-01-30T21:08:15Z")
> [@DSYoungEsq](#): > > Not sure, but since this year’s Premier League has a team from Vladivostok in it Chelsea? ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2009, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-football-season-2008-09-forecasts/459150/590 "2009-01-30T22:37:16Z")
> [@villa](#): > > Chelsea? 😃 Russian Premier League, I meant. 😉 Chelsea play in the American/Russian/Arab Premier League, don’t they? \ ---
**Author:** ![Discordia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Discordia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Discordia)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2009, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-football-season-2008-09-forecasts/459150/591 "2009-01-30T23:07:24Z")
That’s really not fair. There are English billionaires too. ---
**Author:** ![chowder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/977dab/32.png) [@chowder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chowder)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2009, 8:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-football-season-2008-09-forecasts/459150/592 "2009-01-31T08:09:46Z")
> [@villa](#): > > The Sun has words in it??? > > And had Rooney, for example, been caught with some “alleged” molestation of a woman, I am sure you would have shown great restraint and would not have broken the land speed record getting to a computer to post about it. 😃 Well actually Rooney has a penchant for rogering grannies as you no doubt are aware. I’m just wondering what the terrace poets will make of it if Arseshaving does go to the Gooners 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Discordia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Discordia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Discordia)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2009, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-football-season-2008-09-forecasts/459150/593 "2009-01-31T17:05:06Z")
Wow that was a boring “derby”. Anyone else think wins need to be 4 points? This 10 behind the ball stuff is tedious shit. ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2009, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-football-season-2008-09-forecasts/459150/594 "2009-01-31T20:14:41Z")
> [@Discordia](#): > > Wow that was a boring “derby”. > > Anyone else think wins need to be 4 points? This 10 behind the ball stuff is tedious shit. Statements like this always make me wonder about your true understanding of the game. 😛 All other things being equalized, a team of lesser ability (especially lesser pace) will lose more “open” games than games where they pack back. Thus, regardless of how many points you assign to a win, a team that feels it cannot prosper with an attacking strategy will adopt a defending strategy, and try to rely on a lucky counter-attack or two. This has always been true. It isn’t like ten behind the ball is a new strategy, after all. ---
**Author:** ![Discordia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Discordia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Discordia)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2009, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-football-season-2008-09-forecasts/459150/595 "2009-01-31T21:33:15Z")
> [@DSYoungEsq](#): > > Statements like this always make me wonder about your true understanding of the game. 😛 I don’t understand the game because the negativity of the EPL bores me? Okay.. > [@](#): > > All other things being equalized, a team of lesser ability (especially lesser pace) will lose more “open” games than games where they pack back. Of course they’ll lose more. They’ll win fewer too. It’s a stupid strategy (See: Liverpool), and it’s a boring strategy which should be discouraged. Pace is almost irrelevant compared to skill anyway. See: Royston Drenthe. > [@](#): > > Thus, regardless of how many points you assign to a win, a team that feels it cannot prosper with an attacking strategy will adopt a defending strategy, and try to rely on a lucky counter-attack or two. This has always been true. It isn’t like ten behind the ball is a new strategy, after all. Teams in the EPL don’t counter attack the top 4, they play for the draw. For the point, as the commentators say over and over and over. Making a point less valuable would obviously deter this. I’m not referring to counter attacking teams like Villa, I’m referring to boring shit like Sunderland v United and this West Ham v Arsenal. ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Badger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/848f3c/32.png) [@Dead\_Badger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Badger)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2009, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-football-season-2008-09-forecasts/459150/596 "2009-01-31T23:40:40Z")
> [@Discordia](#): > > It’s a stupid strategy (See: Liverpool) Y’see, this is precisely it; it’s hard to believe you’ve watched all that many matches if you genuinely believe that Liverpool’s problem is excessive negativity. They haven’t packed back at all; rather, our problem has been a complete inability to break down defences doing precisely what you decry, dominating possession but lacking the spark in the final quarter. Our season is really the vindication of the strategy you dislike; how many teams have come to Anfield and gone away with a hard-won point that may be the difference between promotion and relegation come the summer? Plenty. Changing the win points will make precisely bugger all difference; a bottom five team can never seriously plan on beating a top five team. Three points, four points, fifty points, it’s irrelevant; they’ve got to come away from Anfield or Old Trafford with more than their fellow relegation candidates. If you want teams to go for broke, you’ve got to lower the cost of failure, not increase the rewards of hugely improbable success. Like it or not, the cost of a promotion/relegation system is a certain amount of realism against those teams facing the drop. And this season, when that’s more or less everyone lower than eighth, that’s a _lot_ of teams. ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2009, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-football-season-2008-09-forecasts/459150/597 "2009-02-01T02:55:37Z")
In the years 1977 to 1981, the top flight of the Football League averaged 28.8 of their games as drawn, and scored 2.6 goals per game. In the last five years, the Premiership has averaged 26% of their games drawn, and scored 2.56 goals per game. The importance of 1977 to 1981? Those were the last five years before the change awarding three points for a win. And if you look at the numbers without the aberrant 2006 season, with only 77 drawn games (21 fewer than any of the other last five seasons), the averages come much closer to equal. So we see that, over time, adding points for a win does nothing for the quality of the games. Just as many, or even fewer goals, just as many draws, essentially. The only way to increase scoring is to change the rules of the game in a way that will hinder defensive play. This is difficult to do: the changes liberalising the offside rule (circa 1994) have obviously had little effect over time in English football. Probably, it would take a radicalization of either the rules on fouling, or some form of eliminating or restricting the effect of the offside rule. No one really wants that. **Discordia** , you are very American sounding in your complaints. You decry defensive play, you want to see more effort by teams at scoring goals. This is what has ruined American sports in general. Basketball, especially professional basketball is now nothing but an offensive showcase, little more than a dunking highlight reel. Baseball’s scores are up, as a result of which teams simply load up on players who can hit home runs and ignore staples like stealing bases. Even American football has lost something not easy to quantify, with scoring fests taking away much of the tenseness of the game. I hope very earnestly that soccer never manages to fall into the “more goals is better” trap. Today, Manchester United and Everton played to a 1 - 0 result. The game ended up hinging on an ill-advised attempt by an Everton player to reach back and give one last little impeding flick at the heels of the onrushing Jamie Carrick. I am certain that both the United supporters and the Everton supporters were on the edges of their seats the whole second half, even though the game was hardly an open, end-to-end, free-flowing contest. Same during the first half, during the first 30 minutes of which, Everton were essentially camped in their own half, playing soak-up-the-attack. If you can’t find that sort of game enjoyable, my suggestion is that football simply isn’t for you. Try watching American football. Oh, wait: they ALWAYS have 11 behind the ball. \ ---
**Author:** ![Discordia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Discordia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Discordia)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2009, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-football-season-2008-09-forecasts/459150/598 "2009-02-01T04:26:40Z")
> [@Dead\_Badger](#): > > Y’see, this is precisely it; it’s hard to believe you’ve watched all that many matches if you genuinely believe that Liverpool’s problem is excessive negativity. They haven’t packed back at all; rather, our problem has been a complete inability to break down defences doing precisely what you decry, dominating possession but lacking the spark in the final quarter. Our season is really the vindication of the strategy you dislike; how many teams have come to Anfield and gone away with a hard-won point that may be the difference between promotion and relegation come the summer? Plenty. You think I haven’t watched many matches because I think Liverpool are excessively negative? Who the hell disagrees with that? Benitez plays not to lose, everyone knows that. He plays two holding midfielders against Fulham at home, what the heck is that if not excessive negativity? Let’s see, teams that have got a point at Anfield: Fulham (not getting relegated) West Ham (not getting relegated barring some points docking or something in which case they’re fucked regardless) Stoke (maybe) Everton (not getting relegated) Hull (didn’t play like that, in fact they actually could’ve won…) I don’t know, maybe my counting is bad, but I see one possible one there, not “plenty”. The only vindication of this season is that Benitez is a cup manager, and Liverpool lack creativity. Neither of which is news. > [@](#): > > Changing the win points will make precisely bugger all difference; a bottom five team can never seriously plan on beating a top five team. Could you kindly inform the FA so we can have our 3 points back from Hull? > [@](#): > > Three points, four points, fifty points, it’s irrelevant; they’ve got to come away from Anfield or Old Trafford with more than their fellow relegation candidates. If you want teams to go for broke, you’ve got to lower the cost of failure, not increase the rewards of hugely improbable success. It’s the same thing. Risk vs reward, you can lower risk or increase reward, it results in the same thing. To use your extreme example, if you made wins 50 points everyone would try to play like Hull away. Obviously, it only takes one result and you beat all your rivals playing for draws. > [@](#): > > Like it or not, the cost of a promotion/relegation system is a certain amount of realism against those teams facing the drop. And this season, when that’s more or less everyone lower than eighth, that’s a _lot_ of teams. I know. I just don’t think it’s a good strategy, aside from it being boring as shit. Hull and, IIRC, Malaga were both the pre-season favorites to go straight back down. They’re both doing much better than their “competitors”, Malaga remarkably so. If they’d won yesterday they’d have been 4th! They try to win too, in case you haven’t watched them. ---
**Author:** ![Discordia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Discordia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Discordia)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2009, 4:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-football-season-2008-09-forecasts/459150/599 "2009-02-01T04:47:19Z")
> [@DSYoungEsq](#): > > In the years 1977 to 1981, the top flight of the Football League averaged 28.8 of their games as drawn, and scored 2.6 goals per game. > > In the last five years, the Premiership has averaged 26% of their games drawn, and scored 2.56 goals per game. > The importance of 1977 to 1981? Those were the last five years before the change awarding three points for a win. And if you look at the numbers without the aberrant 2006 season, with only 77 drawn games (21 fewer than any of the other last five seasons), the averages come much closer to equal. > > So we see that, over time, adding points for a win does nothing for the quality of the games. Just as many, or even fewer goals, just as many draws, essentially. As you are surely aware, that is far from the only change. Teams have become far, far fitter, allowing them to close players down for 90 minutes, making playing for the draw a lot easier. Not to mention the general improvements in defenders and defensive organisation. I’d bet good money that if wins were still two points those numbers of draws would be _far_ higher, with far fewer goals scored. > [@](#): > > The only way to increase scoring is to change the rules of the game in a way that will hinder defensive play. This is difficult to do: the changes liberalising the offside rule (circa 1994) have obviously had little effect over time in English football. Probably, it would take a radicalization of either the rules on fouling, or some form of eliminating or restricting the effect of the offside rule. No one really wants that. I don’t agree it’s the only way, but the EPL adopting the same fouling rules as other countries would surely be a welcome development. > [@](#): > > **Discordia** , you are very American sounding in your complaints. I’m South African, a Scottish/English/Belgian/Afrikaans mutt to be precise! > [@](#): > > You decry defensive play, you want to see more effort by teams at scoring goals. This is what has ruined American sports in general. I’m definitely not one of those people who complain there aren’t enough goals in football. And I don’t mind defensive play. If you’re up a goal trying to hang on, knock yourself out, it can be exciting. What isn’t exciting is whether a team can hang on to…0-0. I just don’t like draws, in any sport. > [@](#): > > Basketball, especially professional basketball is now nothing but an offensive showcase, little more than a dunking highlight reel. Baseball’s scores are up, as a result of which teams simply load up on players who can hit home runs and ignore staples like stealing bases. Even American football has lost something not easy to quantify, with scoring fests taking away much of the tenseness of the game. I hope very earnestly that soccer never manages to fall into the “more goals is better” trap. I’m not one of those people who wants more goals. I just want teams to try to win, not try to get a 0-0. > [@](#): > > Today, Manchester United and Everton played to a 1 - 0 result. The game ended up hinging on an ill-advised attempt by an Everton player to reach back and give one last little impeding flick at the heels of the onrushing Jamie Carrick. I am certain that both the United supporters and the Everton supporters were on the edges of their seats the whole second half, even though the game was hardly an open, end-to-end, free-flowing contest. Same during the first half, during the first 30 minutes of which, Everton were essentially camped in their own half, playing soak-up-the-attack. His name is Michael Carrick, and that wasn’t a penalty. The other one was, though, so no matter. Everton tried, but they are lacking in resources, obviously. It wasn’t a terribly exciting game, Everton were predictably limited, and United are still very mediocre. Someone needs to tell CRon that stepovers don’t score goals. I guess he’s trying to improve his image before he’s off to Madrid. > [@](#): > > If you can’t find that sort of game enjoyable, my suggestion is that football simply isn’t for you. Try watching American football. Oh, wait: they ALWAYS have 11 behind the ball. \ The constant breaks for commercials annoy me too much. ---
**Author:** ![amarone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e0b2c6/32.png) [@amarone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amarone)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2009, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-football-season-2008-09-forecasts/459150/600 "2009-02-01T04:59:10Z")
> [@Discordia](#): > > I don’t agree it’s the only way, but the EPL adopting the same fouling rules as other countries would surely be a welcome development. Can you explain that comment for the ignorant among us? What are the current differences? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-football-season-2008-09-forecasts/459150.md?page=29) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-football-season-2008-09-forecasts/459150.md?page=31)