# UK General Election 2015 predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 27, 2014, 10:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637 "2014-10-27T10:17:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2014, 9:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/221 "2014-12-02T09:20:11Z")
> [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](#): > > Really? Got a link to that Cameron v. UKIP poll? [It’s the Ashcroft one.](http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/CORRECTED-Doncaster-N-Sheffield-H-Thanet-S-poll-summary-Nov-141.pdf) 34% to 29% on Q2 (Constituency Voting Intention). ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2014, 9:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/222 "2014-12-02T09:28:31Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > [It’s the Ashcroft one.](http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/CORRECTED-Doncaster-N-Sheffield-H-Thanet-S-poll-summary-Nov-141.pdf) > > 34% to 29% on Q2 (Constituency Voting Intention). Isn’t that the seat Farage is contesting? I don’t think it’s Cameron’s. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2014, 9:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/223 "2014-12-02T09:31:11Z")
D’oh! Yes, you’re right. I naively assumed he was covering the three leaders. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2014, 9:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/224 "2014-12-02T09:45:00Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > D’oh! Yes, you’re right. I naively assumed he was covering the three leaders. No worries, you would have thought all three main party leaders constituencies had been polled, but I was sure I had read elsewhere that Ashcroft had only polled the constituencies of Miliband, Clegg and Farage. ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2015, 10:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/225 "2015-01-13T10:20:11Z")
Resurrecting this thread. Results of the [first Ashcroft poll](https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/554668633142870019) of 2015: CON 34, LAB 28, LDEM 8, UKIP 16. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2015, 10:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/226 "2015-01-13T10:34:25Z")
Conversely, Populus’ first 2015 polls gives Labour a 5 point lead. LAB - 37% (+3) CON - 32% (-1) UKIP - 13% (-1) LDEM - 10% (+2) GRN - 4% (-2) Meanwhile, YouGov offer a less dramatic take: CON - 32% (-1) LAB - 32% (-1) UKIP - 18% (+5) LDEM - 7% (-1) GRN - 6% (-1) The two dramatic results seem at this stage as likely to be sample variation as a genuine shift - we’ll have to see what the trend is over the next few polls. The New Statesman’s May2015 site has a poll of polls that you can play with [here](http://may2015.com/category/poll-of-polls/) which suggests that it’s currently neck and neck. (But doesn’t use labelled axes, for God’s sake - anyone know of a better one?) ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2015, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/227 "2015-01-13T14:38:10Z")
Cameron’s latest proposal: [Let’s chase the tech industry out of Britain](http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/13/cameron-ban-encryption-digital-britain-online-shopping-banking-messaging-terror). ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2015, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/228 "2015-01-13T16:31:03Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > Cameron’s latest proposal: [Let’s chase the tech industry out of Britain](http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/13/cameron-ban-encryption-digital-britain-online-shopping-banking-messaging-terror). What an idiot. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/229 "2015-01-14T00:28:14Z")
> [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](#): > > Resurrecting this thread. Results of the [first Ashcroft poll](https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/554668633142870019) of 2015: CON 34, LAB 28, LDEM 8, UKIP 16. I await Ashcroft’s faux-oops when there’s discovered a “sampling error” ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/230 "2015-01-14T00:43:42Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > Conversely, Populus’ first 2015 polls gives Labour a 5 point lead. > LAB - 37% (+3) > CON - 32% (-1) > UKIP - 13% (-1) > LDEM - 10% (+2) > GRN - 4% (-2) This looks like an outlier too, to be honest. It’s very volatile though, and there’s considerations in GE polling this time that pollsters haven’t much past experience in. Two really: What the hell is going to happen with the Scottish vote, and what is the UKIP vote going to be in this GE. Personally, I think the SNP vote will tend quite a bit back to Labour in Scotland (anti-Tory rhetoric will help deliver most of it), and UKIP will poll less than 10% (there’s only a handful of seats they can take anyway and the protest vote tends to recede at GE time) ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 9:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/231 "2015-01-14T09:22:10Z")
Yes. I also think that there’s going to be a lot of tactical voting this time around. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 9:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/232 "2015-01-14T09:24:38Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Yes. I also think that there’s going to be a lot of tactical voting this time around. Tactical voting in which direction? ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 9:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/233 "2015-01-14T09:35:46Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > This looks like an outlier too, to be honest. It’s very volatile though, and there’s considerations in GE polling this time that pollsters haven’t much past experience in. Two really: What the hell is going to happen with the Scottish vote, and what is the UKIP vote going to be in this GE. Personally, I think the SNP vote will tend quite a bit back to Labour in Scotland (anti-Tory rhetoric will help deliver most of it), and UKIP will poll less than 10% (there’s only a handful of seats they can take anyway and the protest vote tends to recede at GE time) The New Statesman’s May2015 election blog has a [good article](http://may2015.com/datablast/despite-polls-the-snp-may-struggle-to-defeat-more-than-a-handful-of-lib-dems/) on how hard it will be for the SNP to win any more than two seats off the Liberal Democrats in Scotland. Some of the swings necessary to win the number of seats Nationalists are predicting are absolutely huge. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/234 "2015-01-14T13:19:12Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > Tactical voting in which direction? In _every_ direction imo. It will depend on which parties are competative in which seats. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2015, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/235 "2015-01-14T16:29:41Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > Tactical voting in which direction? Specifically, I think a lot of Unionists will hold their noses and vote for the party most likely to beat the SNP and a lot of UKIPpers will hold their noses and vote Tory. I also think that there will be some seats where the Tories hold their noses and vote UKIP. ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2015, 12:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/236 "2015-01-19T12:00:58Z")
SLAB seem to be closing the gap with SNP, though by how much seems to be debatable. Two polls, [PanelBase](http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/01/18/first-scottish-ge2015-poll-of-the-year-finds-lab-closing-the-gap-to-just-10/) has SLAB trailing SNP by 10%, down from 17% the last time PanelBase polled Scotland, the second, from [Survation](http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/01/19/another-scottish-poll-gives-a-little-bit-of-cheer-to-lab-but-not-that-much/), has SNP support decreasing by 2% and SLAB increasing by 2%. ---
**Author:** ![Alicira](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ea666f/32.png) [@Alicira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alicira)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2015, 8:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/237 "2015-01-26T08:29:38Z")
Form the SNP conference the thinking behind the suggestion that non-SNP members may be chosen to fight seats in Westminster in 2015. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2015, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/238 "2015-02-05T14:17:15Z")
Just listened to the 4th Feb PMQs: really seems like Miliband is “winning” them now. What a turnaround since the start of this parliament. Of course, he’s not doing it with charisma or thinking on his feet, but with the tactic of repeating a question he knows Cameron does not want to answer. No wonder cameron has cold feet about doing a TV debate. (FTR I’m still leaning towards voting tory, and I’m not going to make my decision solely based on PMQs performance :)) ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2015, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/239 "2015-02-05T18:11:45Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Specifically, I think a lot of Unionists will hold their noses and vote for the party most likely to beat the SNP and a lot of UKIPpers will hold their noses and vote Tory. I also think that there will be some seats where the Tories hold their noses and vote UKIP. It only makes sense for Tories to vote UKIP if there’s a chance of a Tory/UKIP coalition though, right? ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2015, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/240 "2015-02-05T18:28:02Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > It only makes sense for Tories to vote UKIP if there’s a chance of a Tory/UKIP coalition though, right? Speaking as a die-hard Tory, if the only candidates with realistic chances of winning were UKIP or Labour, I’d have to hold my nose and vote Labour. Frankly, anyone who votes anything other than Tory or Labour at the next election - and doesn’t switch between them if their preferred choice is third in their constituency - is voting to give extremists, whether UKIP or SNP, effective control of the Government. I’ll be checking the polls nearer the time, but as my constituency was won by the Tories last election after many years of being Labour, I think I’ll be able to safely vote for them. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637.md?page=13)