# UK General Election 2015 predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 27, 2014, 10:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637 "2014-10-27T10:17:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2015, 10:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/261 "2015-02-12T10:46:43Z")
> [@BOOM](#): > > Either you didn’t read it or you’re retarded. > > It’s the stupidest thing posted on here that I can remember. Personal insults are not permitted in Elections. Warning issued. Don’t do it again. ---
**Author:** ![BOOM](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/c4cdca/32.png) [@BOOM](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BOOM)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2015, 11:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/262 "2015-02-12T11:27:35Z")
It isn’t a personal insult. He didn’t read what he posted. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2015, 12:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/263 "2015-02-12T12:21:24Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > The current voting system favours Labour over the Conservatives. The set-up of current constituency boundaries mean the Conservatives need to beat Labour by 2% just to win the same number of seats. If there is a change in the electoral system as a consequence of this election it will be boundary changes imo. Two percent deviation doesn’t sound out of line for a geographic-constituency system. But I guess I can see how a Tory would hate that, considering they only beat Labour last time with a plurality. Why should London have to suffer the opinions of the rest of Britain, amirite? ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2015, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/264 "2015-02-12T12:43:58Z")
> [@foolsguinea](#): > > Two percent deviation doesn’t sound out of line for a geographic-constituency system. > > But I guess I can see how a Tory would hate that, considering they only beat Labour last time with a plurality. Why should London have to suffer the opinions of the rest of Britain, amirite? I deliberately underplayed the deviation in order not to court controversy in the thread. I assume these figures are not set in stone. That tactical voting etc may favour either party during any given election. Ive read elsewhere that it’s in fact 3% the tories need in order to maintain a parity of seats with Labour . And a quote here gives a more glaring warning: [http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-voting-system-rigged-favour-labour/19025](http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-voting-system-rigged-favour-labour/19025) “Prof Curtice reckons the system has become so biased that, where Labour won a safe majority with a lead of just three percentage points in the popular vote in 2005, the Tories would need an 11-point lead over Labour to secure an overall majority.” I also understand that the problem is becoming worse not better. If it’s not fixed soon there _will be_ a consitutional mini crisis in the aftermath of a future election. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2015, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/265 "2015-02-12T12:51:15Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > I also understand that the problem is becoming worse not better. If it’s not fixed soon there _will be_ a consitutional mini crisis in the aftermath of a future election. It was supposed to be fixed in the current parliament with the Sixth Boundary Review - which was a general redrawing, and a reduction in seats from 650 to 600. For some reason it was dropped in 2013. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2015, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/266 "2015-02-12T12:55:58Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > It was supposed to be fixed in the current parliament with the Sixth Boundary Review - which was a general redrawing, and a reduction in seats from 650 to 600. For some reason it was dropped in 2013. Because the AV referendum didn’t go the way the Lib Dems wanted it to, they voted to repeal the redrawing and seat-reduction provisions through a related piece of legislation in the Lords in 2013. There was considerable resentment at the time! ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2015, 9:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/267 "2015-02-13T09:53:43Z")
> [@foolsguinea](#): > > But I guess I can see how a Tory would hate that, considering they only beat Labour last time with a plurality. Why should London have to suffer the opinions of the rest of Britain, amirite? London is a Labour stronghold like most (all?) British cities. It’s also the least likely to vote UKIP, the most Euro-friendly, and the most socially-liberal place in the country. ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2015, 10:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/268 "2015-02-13T10:02:24Z")
Anyway, latest IPSOS MORI poll: [UKIP drop into single figures with Labour leading at 36 (+3 over Tories)](http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/02/12/ukip-drop-into-single-figures-lds-6-as-lab-move-to-36-in-this-months-ipsos-mori-poll/). An Oxford economics professor has also spoken out and claimed [that Labour has the best macroeconomics policies of any major party](http://forgotaboutkeynes.com/2015/02/12/simon-wren-lewis-labour-has-the-better-macro-policy-from-2015/), with the Tories being so obsessed by austerity, debt and deficits that they’re missing the ongoing productivity crisis in the UK. An FT poll of other economists seems to suggest that his view is the mainstream view amongst professional economists, with productivity being a far larger problem for the country than the deficit. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2015, 10:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/269 "2015-02-13T10:46:23Z")
Exclusive: Ms Sturgeon wants to build a ‘progressive alliance’ capable of propelling Ed Miliband into 10 Downing Street in May > **[Nicola Sturgeon seizes chance to play the kingmaker at general election](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/nicola-sturgeon-scotland-s-first-minister-seizes-chance-to-play-the-kingmaker-at-general-election-10042963.html)** > > Exclusive: Ms Sturgeon wants to build a 'progressive alliance' capable of propelling Ed Miliband into 10 Downing Street in May Looking like a confidence and supply agreement between LibDem, SNP, DUP, SDLP, Plaid Cymru- all parties who are in favour of increased public spending. They might even together hold a majority of votes divided between austerity and spending policies! ---
**Author:** ![BOOM](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/c4cdca/32.png) [@BOOM](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BOOM)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2015, 10:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/270 "2015-02-13T10:59:27Z")
… and don’t forget cancelling the Trident upgrade will fund it! It just all fits! ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2015, 11:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/271 "2015-02-13T11:15:57Z")
> [@BOOM](#): > > … and don’t forget cancelling the Trident upgrade will fund it! > > It just all fits! If you read the article it notes that Labour’s refusal to stop the trident renewal would militate against the SNP entering a coalition. ---
**Author:** ![BOOM](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/c4cdca/32.png) [@BOOM](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BOOM)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2015, 11:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/272 "2015-02-13T11:19:17Z")
It is you position that Labour will refuse power because they support a nuclear upgrade? ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2015, 11:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/273 "2015-02-13T11:19:43Z")
> [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](#): > > Anyway, latest IPSOS MORI poll: [UKIP drop into single figures with Labour leading at 36 (+3 over Tories)](http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/02/12/ukip-drop-into-single-figures-lds-6-as-lab-move-to-36-in-this-months-ipsos-mori-poll/). > > An Oxford economics professor has also spoken out and claimed [that Labour has the best macroeconomics policies of any major party](http://forgotaboutkeynes.com/2015/02/12/simon-wren-lewis-labour-has-the-better-macro-policy-from-2015/), with the Tories being so obsessed by austerity, debt and deficits that they’re missing the ongoing productivity crisis in the UK. An FT poll of other economists seems to suggest that his view is the mainstream view amongst professional economists, with productivity being a far larger problem for the country than the deficit. The productivity “crisis” is also exaggerated imo. Not to go off topic but there will be a loose correlation between employment levels annd productivity. A country with unemployment rates of 20% or so will in general be employing the best and the brightest - usually the ones with the highest productivity levels. As you employ people further down the socio-economic pecking order productivity often falls off. As for economists: most of these “experts” were cheering on the policies which got us into this mess. Gordon Brown was celebrated by most mainstream economists for a long time as Chancellor. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2015, 11:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/274 "2015-02-13T11:23:09Z")
> [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](#): > > Anyway, latest IPSOS MORI poll: [UKIP drop into single figures with Labour leading at 36 (+3 over Tories)](http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/02/12/ukip-drop-into-single-figures-lds-6-as-lab-move-to-36-in-this-months-ipsos-mori-poll/). > > An Oxford economics professor has also spoken out and claimed [that Labour has the best macroeconomics policies of any major party](http://forgotaboutkeynes.com/2015/02/12/simon-wren-lewis-labour-has-the-better-macro-policy-from-2015/), with the Tories being so obsessed by austerity, debt and deficits that they’re missing the ongoing productivity crisis in the UK. An FT poll of other economists seems to suggest that his view is the mainstream view amongst professional economists, with productivity being a far larger problem for the country than the deficit. Any poll that treats the whole UK as a single constituency is going to be in error, particularly in Scotland. Labour may be three points ahead in the UK as a whole, but is likely to have this counteracted by the SNP IN Scotland. I suspect that the most likely outcome now is a fairly even split between Labour and Conservative seats with Labour’s nominal advantage of smaller seats leading to increased representation will be balanced by a loss on Scottish Labour seats to the SNP. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2015, 11:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/275 "2015-02-13T11:27:29Z")
> [@BOOM](#): > > It is you position that Labour will refuse power because they support a nuclear upgrade? No. The SNP will only countenance a confidence and supply agreement unless the trident problem is settled. If they joined a formal coalition which intended to keep trident, they would have to accept collective responsibility for that policy. Merely agreeing confidence and supply leaves Labour free to support trident with conservative votes when needed, but maintain non-austerity policies using votes from non-austerity parties. ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2015, 11:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/276 "2015-02-13T11:31:39Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > As for economists: most of these “experts” were cheering on the policies which got us into this mess. Gordon Brown was celebrated by most mainstream economists for a long time as Chancellor. Were they? I don’t remember that. Which academic economists were cheering on Gordon Brown? ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2015, 11:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/277 "2015-02-13T11:36:26Z")
An interesting analysis of the situation in the New Statesman based on an interview with the SNP leader at Westminster. > **[Angus Robertson: Coalition? The only outcome I am thinking about is...](https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/02/angus-robertson-coalition-only-outcome-i-am-thinking-about-confidence-and-supply)** > > The SNP’s Westminster leader on a second referendum, how many seats his party will win and a Labour-SNP coalition. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2015, 11:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/278 "2015-02-13T11:38:15Z")
> [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](#): > > Were they? I don’t remember that. Which academic economists were cheering on Gordon Brown? He had considerable support from Economists as Chancellor, and less support for his government’s policies when party leader. ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2015, 11:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/279 "2015-02-13T11:48:18Z")
Which economists (think tanks, those working in the private sector, those working in academia? who?), and what do you mean by “support”? Did economists claim he was the least bad option when compared to Tory economic policy, or did they actually claim he was enacting policy that academic economists would enact themselves if given free reign? I can see the first happening, given the abject mess the Tory party was for most of his tenure as Chancellor, yet I cannot see the second. ---
**Author:** ![BOOM](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/c4cdca/32.png) [@BOOM](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BOOM)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2015, 11:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/280 "2015-02-13T11:56:27Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > As for economists: most of these “experts” were cheering on the policies which got us into this mess. Gordon Brown was celebrated by most mainstream economists for a long time as Chancellor. The economics was fine, ‘light touch regulation’ not so much. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637.md?page=15)