# UK General Election 2015 predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 27, 2014, 10:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637 "2014-10-27T10:17:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2015, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/301 "2015-02-19T13:04:05Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > At which point the SNP would be letting Tories rule Scotland. I don’t think that’s where they want to be. The Scottish sentiment would be that the SNP had done their best to persuade Labour and failed. Most important issues in Scotland are devolved (with further powers following later this year.) Much of the undesirable welfare policies are being partially devolved- bedroom tax and probably decisions over removals of benefit. Scottish public spending is higher than the rest of the UK and will remains so under the Barnett formula that has been guaranteed for the foreseeable future. Add to that the fact that currently the majority of the Scottish population want considerable further devolution in the next few years makes another five years of Conservative government more bearable up here, and ensures further pressure for further devolution or home rule to keep the Scots happy. Win, Win. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2015, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/302 "2015-02-19T13:21:05Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > The Scottish sentiment would be that the SNP had done their best to persuade Labour and failed. > > Most important issues in Scotland are devolved (with further powers following later this year.) Much of the undesirable welfare policies are being partially devolved- bedroom tax and probably decisions over removals of benefit. Scottish public spending is higher than the rest of the UK and will remains so under the Barnett formula that has been guaranteed for the foreseeable future. > > Add to that the fact that currently the majority of the Scottish population want considerable further devolution in the next few years makes another five years of Conservative government more bearable up here, and ensures further pressure for further devolution or home rule to keep the Scots happy. > > Win, Win. If you say so. I have some familiarity with Scottish sentiment myself, and I find it very unlikely that the SNP could sit in Parliament and nod through Tory legislation without there being some measure of blowback. Doing any kind of deals with the Tories will be toxic for the SNP and pointing the finger at Labour will not get them off the hook. But as I said, this is the big question: given the choice between pursuing further nationalist goals, or keeping the Tories from ruling Scotland which way will the SNP jump? You’re answer above is that they’ll let the Tories in. I think this is - from their perspective - an exceptionally bad alternative to doing a deal with Labour. Which polls show is what the current majority of the Scottish population want. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2015, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/303 "2015-02-19T13:36:14Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > If you say so. I have some familiarity with Scottish sentiment myself, and I find it very unlikely that the SNP could sit in Parliament and nod through Tory legislation without there being some measure of blowback. Doing any kind of deals with the Tories will be toxic for the SNP and pointing the finger at Labour will not get them off the hook. > > But as I said, this is the big question: given the choice between pursuing further nationalist goals, or keeping the Tories from ruling Scotland which way will the SNP jump? You’re answer above is that they’ll let the Tories in. I think this is - from their perspective - an exceptionally bad alternative to doing a deal with Labour. Which polls show is what the current majority of the Scottish population want. They would not ‘nod through’ legislation. They would have tried to set up support for Labour and have failed through Labour intransigence. Then all they need do is sit back and vote against all rightist legislation posed by a Tory minority government, basically hog tying it. Meanwhile continuing to govern most aspects of Scottish affairs from a leftist point of view. Such a Tory minority government would not be able to Introduce legislation to force the ill and obese into work Renew Trident Start wars Introduce new Grammar schools Privatise the health service Introduce further racist immigration laws Hold an In Out Euro referendum I think that would keep them very popular in Scotland. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2015, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/304 "2015-02-19T14:12:45Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > They would not ‘nod through’ legislation. They would have tried to set up support for Labour and have failed through Labour intransigence. And their own. They will not emerge blameless from a failed negotiation. Scots preferred outcome is a Labour-SNP government and if the SNP blow their chance to produce it they will have failed to meet the wishes of their voters. If they then go on to produce a Tory-SNP government, however limited, they will be directly going against the wishes of their voters. > [@](#): > > Then all they need do is sit back and vote against all rightist legislation posed by a Tory minority government, basically hog tying it. Meanwhile continuing to govern most aspects of Scottish affairs from a leftist point of view. > > Such a Tory minority government would not be able to > > Introduce legislation to force the ill and obese into work > Renew Trident > Start wars > Introduce new Grammar schools > Privatise the health service > Introduce further racist immigration laws > Hold an In Out Euro referendum > > I think that would keep them very popular in Scotland. If that’s the SNP position, why would the Tories ever agree to that deal? How could they? If you’re going to posit an SNP/Tory deal, it has to be one that makes sense for the Tories to agree to. The Tories’ supporters give them even less scope than Labour to let a minority nationalist party dictate UK policy on immigration or Europe. Assuming that everyone will do what the SNP wants must make for pleasant daydreams, but it’s not going to lead to realistic scenarios. In any case, however “hog tied” that minority Tory government is - and I note you don’t include the minor matter of tax and spending cuts in your list - the fact remains that under the strategy you propose, Prime Minister Cameron, or Osborne, or May will be sitting in the big chair because the SNP put them there. And when they pass a budget (if they can’t pass a budget, there is no deal) it will not be a budget that most Scots want to see passed. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2015, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/305 "2015-02-19T14:14:17Z")
[For the record](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11230432/SNP-will-never-ever-prop-up-a-Conservative-government-Nicola-Sturgeon-says.html), here is Nicola Sturgeon’s perspective on the SNP supporting a Tory government: > [@](#): > > She told Radio 4’s Today Programme: “We wouldn’t put the Tories into government. Scotland hasn’t voted Tory for many, many a long year and one of the democratic arguments for independence is that we shouldn’t have to put up with Conservative Government we don’t vote for. > “The SNP would not impose a Tory Government we didn’t vote for on Scotland.” > She added: "The SNP would never, ever put the Tories into government. I leave it to the reader to estimate the depth of the hole that would be blown in her credibility if she were to renege on that. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2015, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/306 "2015-02-19T14:33:38Z")
Looks like the only hope for a functional government is for enough English people to vote Labour or (preferably) Tory to prevent the need for an unstable coalition that will work against the desires and interests of 95% of voters, then. Although a Tory loss at this election, followed by a Johnson-led victory in a couple of years would be pretty good as well. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2015, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/307 "2015-02-19T14:43:41Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > And their own. They will not emerge blameless from a failed negotiation. Scots preferred outcome is a Labour-SNP government and if the SNP blow their chance to produce it they will have failed to meet the wishes of their voters. If they then go on to produce a Tory-SNP government, however limited, they will be directly going against the wishes of their voters. > > If that’s the SNP position, why would the Tories ever agree to that deal? How could they? If you’re going to posit an SNP/Tory deal, it has to be one that makes sense for the Tories to agree to. The Tories’ supporters give them even less scope than Labour to let a minority nationalist party dictate UK policy on immigration or Europe. Assuming that everyone will do what the SNP wants must make for pleasant daydreams, but it’s not going to lead to realistic scenarios. > > In any case, however “hog tied” that minority Tory government is - and I note you don’t include the minor matter of tax and spending cuts in your list - the fact remains that under the strategy you propose, Prime Minister Cameron, or Osborne, or May will be sitting in the big chair because the SNP put them there. And when they pass a budget (if they can’t pass a budget, there is no deal) it will not be a budget that most Scots want to see passed. No deal involved. The Tories are given a chance to form a government. Together with the DUP and UKIP they just outvote Labour. Plaid, Green, SNP, and SNP abstain. No one wants a second election. A Tory minority government limps along with all fearing a worse result from a second election. No contentious legislation is possible as the government can only get support for non contentious legislation (although Labour might lend enough votes to renew Trident. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2015, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/308 "2015-02-19T14:45:40Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > Looks like the only hope for a functional government is for enough English people to vote Labour or (preferably) Tory to prevent the need for an unstable coalition that will work against the desires and interests of 95% of voters, then. > > Although a Tory loss at this election, followed by a Johnson-led victory in a couple of years would be pretty good as well. No poll in the last few years has suggested a majority government. Such a result is close to impossible ten weeks out. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2015, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/309 "2015-02-19T15:32:31Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > No poll in the last few years has suggested a majority government. Such a result is close to impossible ten weeks out. Yep. A coalition by itself isn’t necessarily a problem, but the likelihood of one that is stable, and not acting against the wishes of the vast majority of the electorate, is slim. The one good thing is the polls showing UKIP’s vote will probably be significantly lower than previously predicted. I’m also nit convinced no-one wants a new election - a charismatic new leader for either main party could benefit from it, especially after a couple of years of effectively no government. Boris 2017! ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2015, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/310 "2015-02-19T15:42:11Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > No one wants a second election. A Tory minority government limps along with all fearing a worse result from a second election. I disagree. If Boris gets elected and Cameron fails to get a majority, there could well be a swift coup followed by an election later this year. You can bet Boris has this planned out. Remember that Boris could well attract those lost to UKIP. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2015, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/311 "2015-02-19T15:42:57Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > Boris 2017! Too many skeletons in his closet, I suspect. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2015, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/312 "2015-02-19T15:55:44Z")
I honestly don’t think Boris’s carefully cultivated persona could withstand being PM. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2015, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/313 "2015-02-19T16:06:16Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > I disagree. If Boris gets elected and Cameron fails to get a majority, there could well be a swift coup followed by an election later this year. You can bet Boris has this planned out. Remember that Boris could well attract those lost to UKIP. That would require a leftist government to form and survive. Once a government has been formed and passed a Queens speech it is virtually impossible to remove it without a major crisis that drives coalition partners and confidence and supply partners away. The queen would by protocol have to ask the incumbent PM to form a government if there was not an overall victor. Were he to be removed, Boris would not have that right but it would pass to the next party leader able to attempt a coalition. If Boris was the alternative, I suspect that leftist parties would ensure the continuation of a leftist government until Boris could be exhibited as Tory leader to the electorate. Boris would only get a chance AFTER Miliband was invited to have an attempt at forming a government, and failed. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2015, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/314 "2015-02-19T16:07:19Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > I honestly don’t think Boris’s carefully cultivated persona could withstand being PM. He’d be better than Miliband, and his complete lack of either persona or personality. And Boris’s persona hides a pretty shrewd operator, in my opinion. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2015, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/315 "2015-02-19T16:09:46Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > Yep. A coalition by itself isn’t necessarily a problem, but the likelihood of one that is stable, and not acting against the wishes of the vast majority of the electorate, is slim. The one good thing is the polls showing UKIP’s vote will probably be significantly lower than previously predicted. > > I’m also nit convinced no-one wants a new election - a charismatic new leader for either main party could benefit from it, especially after a couple of years of effectively no government. > > Boris 2017! It is quite likely that the ‘vast majority of the electorate’ is not rightist. By the most recent polls the Labour, LibDem, Plaid, Green, SNP vote is a small majority to the centre left. Conservatives, UKIP are the minority. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2015, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/316 "2015-02-19T16:12:01Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > He’d be better than Miliband, and his complete lack of either persona or personality. And Boris’s persona hides a pretty shrewd operator, in my opinion. In your humble opinion. Neither have yet been tested. Your political views might be giving you a somewhat biased conclusion. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2015, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/317 "2015-02-19T16:13:02Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > That would require a leftist government to form and survive. Once a government has been formed and passed a Queens speech it is virtually impossible to remove it without a major crisis that drives coalition partners and confidence and supply partners away. A vote of no confidence in the government is neither unprecedented nor a major crisis. If the vote is close enough, all it would take is one or two minor coalition parties (say, DUP and Plaid Cymru) to withdraw confidence from Labour and/or support the Tories to cause the government to fall. Really, Labour desperately need an actual leader, not just a mouthpiece. I’ve no idea who that could be, though. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2015, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/318 "2015-02-19T16:15:27Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > In your humble opinion. Neither have yet been tested. Your political views might be giving you a somewhat biased conclusion. Not really. Miliband’s ridiculously low approval ratings among Labour supporters speaks for itself, as does Johnson’s popularity as mayor of London, and success as editor of the Spectator. Enough to make him a great PM? Not necessarily, but I think _you_ would make a better PM than Miliband. At least you have a personality and opinions, as much as I may not be fond of either. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2015, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/319 "2015-02-19T16:21:41Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > It is quite likely that the ‘vast majority of the electorate’ is not rightist. By the most recent polls the Labour, LibDem, Plaid, Green, SNP vote is a small majority to the centre left. Conservatives, UKIP are the minority. The vast majority of the population are not nationalists, and a party with a controlling vote pushing a nationalist agenda will not be representing them. Whether that party was UKIP, Sinn Fein, PC or the SNP doesn’t matter. A coalition held hostage to destructive minority parties will drive voters from whichever big party allows that. In the (fortunately unlikely) event of a Tory/UKIP coalition, I would write to my MP (assuming she gets reelected) to urge her to vote against such a government in a confidence vote, and encourage others to do the same. Party politics is one thing, but playing with the future of the country by allowing extremists in (and the SNP and PC are _definitely_ extremists) is another, and should not be accepted by the people. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2015, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/320 "2015-02-19T16:35:45Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > The vast majority of the population are not nationalists, and a party with a controlling vote pushing a nationalist agenda will not be representing them. Whether that party was UKIP, Sinn Fein, PC or the SNP doesn’t matter. A coalition held hostage to destructive minority parties will drive voters from whichever big party allows that. > > In the (fortunately unlikely) event of a Tory/UKIP coalition, I would write to my MP (assuming she gets reelected) to urge her to vote against such a government in a confidence vote, and encourage others to do the same. Party politics is one thing, but playing with the future of the country by allowing extremists in (and the SNP and PC are _definitely_ extremists) is another, and should not be accepted by the people. Most people seem to be nationalist- English, Welsh, Irish or British. You just want to discount those with whom you disagree. Politics does not work like that. Any government that can pass a Queen’s Speech is legitimate. Even more so when it reflects the left right vote in the whole country. IIRC you have previously advocated Celtic nationalists being denied their MPs right to vote in Parliament. Hardly democratic! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637.md?page=15) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637.md?page=17)