# UK General Election 2015 predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 27, 2014, 10:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637 "2014-10-27T10:17:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 20
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2015, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/381 "2015-02-21T15:08:05Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > There is a tendency at the moment for voters to punish Unionist parties, even if they voted for NO in the referendum. They remind me of the Greeks who voted in the current government, all take and no give. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2015, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/382 "2015-02-21T15:15:10Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > They remind me of the Greeks who voted in the current government, all take and no give. As a Tory you should appreciate people voting for their own self interest. ---
**Author:** ![Celyn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/9dc877/32.png) [@Celyn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Celyn)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2015, 8:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/383 "2015-02-22T08:59:29Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > … > Also, any MP who goes to Westminster with an agenda of breaking up the Union is a traitor, and should be treated as such. If the SNP work for the benefit of the Union, fair enough, but if they act to try to harm it they should be thrown out. Utter nonsense, and pretty nasty nonsense at that. The SNP, and the Green parties wish Scotland to become independent. That may be a view that you don’t share, but it is a perfectly valid political view. Are you planning to behead all the “traitors”? ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2015, 9:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/384 "2015-02-22T09:27:44Z")
It’s not a valid view to want to break up a country against the wishes of its population. There is no reason to think the the population of the UK want to break it up, and the small amount of them actually asked voted against it. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2015, 10:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/385 "2015-02-22T10:49:00Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > It’s not a valid view to want to break up a country against the wishes of its population. There is no reason to think the the population of the UK want to break it up, and the small amount of them actually asked voted against it. Sometimes I wonder about your logic, history and politics. You believe that “It’s not a valid view to want to break up a country…” Let us examine that humble opinion: Algeria should still be part of France. Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, should still be part of Russia Poland should be part of Prussia Poland should be part of Russia The Czech Republic should be part of Czechoslovakia Slovakia should be part of Czechoslovakia Serbia should be part of Yugoslavia Kosovo should be part of Serbia Pakistan should be part of India Texas should be part of Mexico AND The whole of Ireland should be ruled from London. You ignore logic, history and politics. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2015, 10:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/386 "2015-02-22T10:53:56Z")
> [@Celyn](#): > > Utter nonsense, and pretty nasty nonsense at that. The SNP, and the Green parties wish Scotland to become independent. That may be a view that you don’t share, but it is a perfectly valid political view. > > Are you planning to behead all the “traitors”? Add the Scottish Socialist Party, Plaid Cymru, Sinn Fein, the SDLP Mebyon Kernow, and many individuals of no party at all. And the members of Unionist parties who vote for Independence. And how about the mainly Conservative, UKIP, and others who support English Nationalism from EVEL to casting off the Celtic fringe. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2015, 10:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/387 "2015-02-22T10:56:35Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > It’s not a valid view to want to break up a country against the wishes of its population. There is no reason to think the the population of the UK want to break it up, and the small amount of them actually asked voted against it. We have signed a treaty to create an “ever closer union” of European nations with the clear intent of forming a super state with its own laws, currency and political system. At which point does that become irreversible. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2015, 10:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/388 "2015-02-22T10:57:53Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > It’s not a valid view to want to break up a country against the wishes of its population. There is no reason to think the the population of the UK want to break it up, and the small amount of them actually asked voted against it. Were the aims of the Southern States not ‘valid’ in the US civil war? ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2015, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/389 "2015-02-22T18:09:23Z")
Back on topic: Nicola Sturgeon has written to the Cabinet Office insisting that the SNP be involved in the pre-election briefings that are traditionally given to opposition parties in a position to be part of a future Government. ---
**Author:** ![amanset](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/8dc957/32.png) [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2015, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/390 "2015-02-23T00:22:50Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > Sometimes I wonder about your logic, history and politics. > > You believe that “It’s not a valid view to want to break up a country…” > > Let us examine that humble opinion: > Algeria should still be part of France. > > Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, should still be part of Russia > > Poland should be part of Prussia > > Poland should be part of Russia > > The Czech Republic should be part of Czechoslovakia > > Slovakia should be part of Czechoslovakia > > Serbia should be part of Yugoslavia > > Kosovo should be part of Serbia > > Pakistan should be part of India > > Texas should be part of Mexico > > AND > > The whole of Ireland should be ruled from London. > You ignore logic, history and politics. How many of those were due to invasion (meaning there may well be a moral “right” to go back to how they were pre-invasion) as opposed to a peaceful coming together of nations? Is this a sneak attempt to imply that England (and it is England, you seem to only moan about them and never Wales or Northern Ireland) is acting in a “neo-colonial” manner by drawing parallels between the UK and the actions of various empires? You know, that thing you were warned not to do anymore. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2015, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/391 "2015-02-23T00:40:15Z")
> [@amanset](#): > > How many of those were due to invasion (meaning there may well be a moral “right” to go back to how they were pre-invasion) as opposed to a peaceful coming together of nations? > > Is this a sneak attempt to imply that England (and it is England, you seem to only moan about them and never Wales or Northern Ireland) is acting in a “neo-colonial” manner by drawing parallels between the UK and the actions of various empires? You know, that thing you were warned not to do anymore. At the time when Scotland and England entered a union, the nation state was a rarity. There were empires and stateless. Nation states were largely a product of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries as the passed into and out of control of empires. And to return to the original point which I was countering- the claim that a campaign for independence makes those parties not ‘valid’, the Westminster accord stated clearly that in the view of both Westminster and Holyrood, the decision of the Scottish people in a referendum would be sufficient in itself for Scotland to assume sovereignty as an independent state, and the views of the rest of the UK were to be of no matter in deciding the issue. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2015, 8:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/392 "2015-02-23T08:50:37Z")
Statelets, not stateless. Damned spell check. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2015, 9:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/393 "2015-02-23T09:40:14Z")
Those that have followed my posts on the future path to Independence will be aware of my belief that Scotland will proceed to independence not for entirely rational reasons. I am a reluctant supporter of Independence, preferring Home Rule on a federal system, but over the past decade living in Scotland I have developed an understanding of the psychology that drives the pressure for independence, and that psychology is founded on the difference of nuance between the view of many Scots and many English on the nature of union. Issues that are seen as normal and natural to English unionists are seen as threats to Scottish identity by nationalists. Recent history from the bodged referendum in the early years of Thatcher, overturned by her insistence on a super majority, through many perceived sleights over the decade seen as demeaning Scotland. One recentassault has been the current bodge of EVEL which in England is seen as natural and fair and in Scotland is seen as a way to enforce right wing governments on the UK and consequently on Scotland. Rather than set up a separate English Parliament it has been proposed to have a bastard system that will make it difficult to have an effective left of centre government in the UK. The latest affront occurred yesterday where the House of Lords Constitutional Committee is seeking to question the cross party decision to allow Holyrood to determine electoral affairs for Scottish elections, specifically dropping the voting age to 16. Should this become a major issue, this will be seen a further threat to Scotland’s sovereignty. I suspect that a continuing series of such clashes between English and Scottish sentiment to pave the way for a majority for independence within a decade. All will depend on which of the two sides, Unionists and Nationalists plays the best political cards. My money is on Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond! ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2015, 10:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/394 "2015-02-23T10:17:43Z")
In other news, Straw and Rifkind have been busted selling influence to lobbyists in the kind of story that supports Russell Brand-esque anti-politics: They’re all the same, they’re all in it for themselves and will happily screw you over to get theirs, so why bother voting? Corrupt old rich white men who can’t even see their corruption, or acknowledge the extent to which they’ve betrayed the trust implicit in their position, do not make a good case to vote. It’s not, sadly, an outrageous, earth-shattering scandal scandal - it’s easy to think of this as business as usual - but it does have a corrosive effect on trust in politicians and in politics as a process. Will it effect the election? A few of those on the fence about voting at all - who would tend to be younger, and poorer, and non-white - might be more likely to stay at home, given this. It does play into the hands of anti-politics parties (this sort of thing is meat and drink to Farage) who can use it to whip up a protest vote from older voters. It might be worth a percentage point or two in UKIP’s strongest seats? Another question is whether Labour or the Tories could turn this to their advantage. The Tories I would say not - they’re seen as the party of business, and wealth, and lobbying; Labour have a slim chance, but it would take: expulsion of Straw and removal of his predicted seat in the Lords, a strong policy proposal and ruthless dealing with any other skeletons in closets. I don’t really see Milliband going for that, because as we’ve just seen re: tax avoidance attempts to seize the moral high ground often come unstuck. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2015, 11:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/395 "2015-02-23T11:09:14Z")
I take it back: Ed’s written to Cameron: > [@Ed Miliband](#): > > Dear Prime Minister, > > I write this letter to you not just as leader of the Labour Party but as someone who believes that we all need to act to improve the reputation of our Parliament in the eyes of the British people. > > I believe MPs are dedicated to the service of their constituents and the overwhelming majority follow the rules. But the British people need to know that when they vote they are electing someone who will represent them directly, and not be swayed by what they may owe to the interests of others. > > Two years ago I said Labour MPs would not be able to hold paid directorships or consultancies after the next election. > > My party is also consulting on legislation to make this a statutory ban, as well as imposing a strict cap on all outside earnings by MPs. > > Today I can confirm that these measures will be included in my party’s General Election manifesto. > > The low levels of trust in politics demands clarity and I urge you to follow my lead in banning paid directorships and consultancies. > > There have been too many scandals about conflicts of interest in recent years. > > It is time to draw a line under this and ensure these current allegations are the last. > > I am sure you will agree this is a problem which affects all parties. > > I believe these are circumstances which demand action and leadership. > > I look forward to receiving your response. > > Yours, > > Ed Miliband The cap on outside earnings is apparently 15%. Not 0. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2015, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/396 "2015-02-23T13:00:02Z")
The latest BBC poll of polls confirms Labour and Tories neck and neck with about a third of voters each - still headed for a hung parliament with ten weeks to go. It is likely the poll showing a good Tory lead last week was an anomaly. Back to coalition? ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2015, 11:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/397 "2015-02-24T11:58:10Z")
Rifkind resigns as chair of ISC and stands down as PPC for Kensington and Chelsea. Boris must be spitting teeth. He’s already planted his flag in Harrow, of all places, which is a) outside Zone 1 and b) close enough to Heathrow that he’s having to reverse-ferret his previous vocal opposition to a second runway there. And now that he can’t back out, K&C pops open for some lucky bastard. In other news, Natalie Bennet of the Greens has just given cripplingly embarrassing interview to LBC, where she demonstrated exactly zero knowledge of some very basic questions about her flagship policies. If the Greens can’t look even vaguely credible, Labour or the Lib Dems may benefit slightly. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2015, 12:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/398 "2015-02-24T12:13:10Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > Rifkind resigns as chair of ISC and stands down as PPC for Kensington and Chelsea. > > Boris must be spitting teeth. He’s already planted his flag in Harrow, of all places, which is a) outside Zone 1 and b) close enough to Heathrow that he’s having to reverse-ferret his previous vocal opposition to a second runway there. And now that he can’t back out, K&C pops open for some lucky bastard. > > In other news, Natalie Bennet of the Greens has just given cripplingly embarrassing interview to LBC, where she demonstrated exactly zero knowledge of some very basic questions about her flagship policies. If the Greens can’t look even vaguely credible, Labour or the Lib Dems may benefit slightly. Uxbridge and South Ruislip is Boris’ new quest. It is a fairly safe Tory seat, it and it’s predecessors having returned a Tory since 1971. The Greens will make local advances much as UKIP will, and the LibDems did in the seventies and eighties, all without coherent policies. Their vote is made up of true believers and ‘anyone but in the above.’ The SNP benefits from this boost in Scotland. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2015, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/399 "2015-02-24T12:28:50Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > Uxbridge and South Ruislip is Boris’ new quest. It is a fairly safe Tory seat, it and it’s predecessors having returned a Tory since 1971. Of course it’s a safe seat. He wouldn’t be in it if it wasn’t a safe seat. But it’s not as convenient for Westminster as K&C, and it has forced him to [backtrack on his Heathrow opposition](http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/09/01/boris-johnson-heathrow-uxbridge_n_5746412.html): > [@](#): > > "Boris Johnson has backed down over his proposal to close Heathrow Airport, suggesting that it could continue to exist as a secondary airport alongside his beloved four-runway “Boris Island” hub on the Thames Estuary. > > His change of tack in the airport debate is conveniently timed, as he is vying to be MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, an area of London that would be affected by the job closures resulting from Heathrow’s closure. > > “As for the existing hub at Heathrow, you could keep an Orly-style airport,” he wrote in his Telegraph column today. “But you could also release huge quantities of prime land as a wonderful new district for London.” > > Johnson was swiftly mocked today for being “all over the place” by Tory home affairs committee member Mark Reckless, who warned that Heathrow “must close” to make his “pie in sky” Thames Estuary airport work." > [@](#): > > The Greens will make local advances much as UKIP will, and the LibDems did in the seventies and eighties, all without coherent policies. Their vote is made up of true believers and ‘anyone but in the above.’ The SNP benefits from this boost in Scotland. Sure, that’s the core vote. But they had been trending up, and some of those new people who thought a Green vote was a reasonable protest vote will be now be asking themselves if they really want to vote for complete incompetents. It won’t eliminate their vote and they weren’t going to take many seats at all but if this saves a few hundred Labour/LibDem votes in a few key constituencies it could make all the difference. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2015, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/400 "2015-02-24T13:07:52Z")
Caroline Bennett had a disaster of an interview earlier today. I doubt this will hurt the Greens as much as it would a traditional party. Still it’s always fun to hear a politician mentally break down on air. [http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/24/green-party-leader-mind-blank-manifesto-natalie-bennett](http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/24/green-party-leader-mind-blank-manifesto-natalie-bennett) edit: Natalie Bennett [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637.md?page=19) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637.md?page=21)