# UK General Election 2015 predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 27, 2014, 10:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637 "2014-10-27T10:17:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 25
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 11:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/481 "2015-03-06T11:45:44Z")
Holy fuck you guys, really? Really? ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 11:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/482 "2015-03-06T11:58:25Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > Holy fuck you guys, really? Really? Steophan does tend to fire from the hip. The article calling for a statesman like Lincoln that I posted earlier is worth a read. But Steophan does feel the need to try to win an argument rather than to make an argument, even when it takes him beyond his competence. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 12:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/483 "2015-03-06T12:02:55Z")
It’s not about who’s right and wrong. It’s about who is arguing about Lincoln in a thread about UK politics. (Hint: it’s you.) ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 12:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/484 "2015-03-06T12:11:40Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > It’s not about who’s right and wrong. It’s about who is arguing about Lincoln in a thread about UK politics. > > (Hint: it’s you.) I posted a fascinating article about how Lincoln tried to keep the Confederacy from war. Steophan erroneously claims that Lincoln was a war monger despite the received view that he was extremely reluctant to move for war. I point out this error. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 12:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/485 "2015-03-06T12:12:50Z")
Max Hastings demonstrates those Unionist attitudes that are likely to drive the Scots to seek independence > **[The terrifying prospect of the Scots ruling England is now all too real: MAX...](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2982046/The-terrifying-prospect-Scots-ruling-England-real-MAX-HASTINGS-nightmare-scenario-facing-Britain-Election.html)** > > We face the bleak prospect of five million Scots determining the fate of almost 60 million people in the rest of the UK, writes MAX HASTINGS. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 12:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/486 "2015-03-06T12:32:54Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > I posted a fascinating article about how Lincoln tried to keep the Confederacy from war. > > Steophan erroneously claims that Lincoln was a war monger despite the received view that he was extremely reluctant to move for war. > > I point out this error. He wasn’t reluctant enough to allow secession without war - and yet, you for some, inexplicable, reason link to him as an ideal statesman for allowing a peaceful secession :smack::smack::smack: Scottish sovereignty is in the hands of the UK, who may - but are not obliged to - hand that decision to the people of Scotland. Scotland, of course, has a right to declare independence unilaterally, but no-one, least of all the UK, is obliged to pay any attention to that declaration. In the real world, no-one is going to refuse Scotland independence \*as long as \*it’s done on terms acceptable to the UK. But the idea that Scotland can just decide to leave, taking whatever assets and leaving whatever commitments behind, without any consequence, is utterly wrong. Anyway, I’ll ask again, since you seem to have ignored my actual question. Given your admiration for Lincoln, would you accept that, if Scotland gains independence, the UK would be justified in using force to hold its military assets north of the border? As that’s what Lincoln did, to begin the Civil War. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 12:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/487 "2015-03-06T12:39:32Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > Max Hastings demonstrates those Unionist attitudes that are likely to drive the Scots to seek independence > > [MAX HASTINGS on nightmare scenario facing Britain over SNP after General Election 2015 | Daily Mail Online](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2982046/The-terrifying-prospect-Scots-ruling-England-real-MAX-HASTINGS-nightmare-scenario-facing-Britain-Election.html) He’s 100% correct. If the Scots are so desperate to shoot themselves in the foot rather than accept that they’re better off as a region of the UK than an independent nation, that is ultimately up to them. Like most people, I’d rather it didn’t happen, but if the price of keeping Scotland in the Union is handing control of the Government to a party that less than 5% of the population voted for, I’d not accept paying it. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/488 "2015-03-06T13:21:47Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > He wasn’t reluctant enough to allow secession without war - and yet, you for some, inexplicable, reason link to him as an ideal statesman for allowing a peaceful secession :smack::smack::smack: > > Scottish sovereignty is in the hands of the UK, who may - but are not obliged to - hand that decision to the people of Scotland. Scotland, of course, has a right to declare independence unilaterally, but no-one, least of all the UK, is obliged to pay any attention to that declaration. > > In the real world, no-one is going to refuse Scotland independence \*as long as \*it’s done on terms acceptable to the UK. But the idea that Scotland can just decide to leave, taking whatever assets and leaving whatever commitments behind, without any consequence, is utterly wrong. > > Anyway, I’ll ask again, since you seem to have ignored my actual question. Given your admiration for Lincoln, would you accept that, if Scotland gains independence, the UK would be justified in using force to hold its military assets north of the border? As that’s what Lincoln did, to begin the Civil War. You don’t do logic do you? But you do manage to demonstrate most common errors in debate though. I quite admire Jefferson; that does not mean I approve of his slave holding. I quite admire Lincoln as a man of peace; even though his hand was forced, a little bit like that great war monger who said jaw, jaw, jaw is better than war, war, war. It is quite possible for people who have your approval to be excused certain actions when their lives are viewed as a whole. (Dresden) It is also possible for moral people to be forced into immoral acts. When you start trying to engage in real debate rather than just trying to win any argument for the sake of it you will be worthy of respect. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/489 "2015-03-06T13:32:14Z")
So, you accept that a section of your country declaring independence is grounds for war then? Because that’s what Lincoln believed, and how he acted. Were he in charge of the UK, he would not countenance Scottish independence. Why hold him up as an example in this situation? His aims were diametrically opposed to yours - he wished to keep the union whole, and enforce the wishes of the larger part thereof on the remainder - _precisely_ the opposite of what you want for Scotland and the UK. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/490 "2015-03-06T13:39:12Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > So, you accept that a section of your country declaring independence is grounds for war then? Because that’s what Lincoln believed, and how he acted. Were he in charge of the UK, he would not countenance Scottish independence. > > Why hold him up as an example in this situation? His aims were diametrically opposed to yours - he wished to keep the union whole, and enforce the wishes of the larger part thereof on the remainder - _precisely_ the opposite of what you want for Scotland and the UK. And you just don’t bother to read responses. That is well covered in my previous post. Are you just arguing for the sake of it? ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/491 "2015-03-06T14:17:02Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > And you just don’t bother to read responses. That is well covered in my previous post. No it isn’t, not at all. If it were I wouldn’t keep asking questions. > [@](#): > > Are you just arguing for the sake of it? Not exactly, I’d like to be exposed to other points of view to mine and be able to analyse them. That seems like a decent reason for debating. But I certainly don’t expect anything of world-shattering importance to come of it. It’s a shame that, despite my questions, you are unwilling or unable to clearly state your reasons for wanting a politician like Lincoln to take charge of negotiations here, despite his position being the opposite of yours. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/492 "2015-03-06T14:21:06Z")
To clarify my argument. I believe that the major drive towards Scottish Independence may be the actions of people who call themselves Unionists. Their actions and attitudes are quite off putting to many Scottish people who are neutral or moderate in their Unionism. In the most recent referendum the Independence vote was only tens of thousands short of a majority. The more people who are offended by such aggressive unionism, the more will move into the YES camp. Probably the majority view in Scotland is some form of Devo Max or Home Rule. Certainly a massive majority of people want most issues decided at a local level. Few want the status quo. I would prefer Home Rule to Independence- I have only been a reluctant supporter of a YES vote because no middle option was offered. I feel that the main current threat to the Union is paradoxically extreme (usually English) Unionists such as Max Hastings, John Major and Steophan whose arguments are those most likely to push Scots into separation. What is needed is statesmanship and negotiation to meet the various demands across the whole UK for devolution and federalisation. The coming election campaign and its resulting House of Commons will be the battle ground on which this will be fought. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/493 "2015-03-06T14:22:39Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > No it isn’t, not at all. If it were I wouldn’t keep asking questions. > > Not exactly, I’d like to be exposed to other points of view to mine and be able to analyse them. That seems like a decent reason for debating. But I certainly don’t expect anything of world-shattering importance to come of it. > > It’s a shame that, despite my questions, you are unwilling or unable to clearly state your reasons for wanting a politician like Lincoln to take charge of negotiations here, despite his position being the opposite of yours. Asked and answered. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/494 "2015-03-06T14:48:35Z")
It’s you who brought up “aggressive Unionism” by talking about Lincoln, no-one else has suggested any form of aggression. There’s nothing in anything written by Hastings, Major, or myself for that matter, that suggests Scotland should be forced to remain in the Union against its will, simply that it’s foolish beyond measure for it to consider leaving, and unacceptable to hold the government hostage to those demands. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/495 "2015-03-06T14:55:36Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > It’s you who brought up “aggressive Unionism” by talking about Lincoln, no-one else has suggested any form of aggression. There’s nothing in anything written by Hastings, Major, or myself for that matter, that suggests Scotland should be forced to remain in the Union against its will, simply that it’s foolish beyond measure for it to consider leaving, and unacceptable to hold the government hostage to those demands. And writing such in a rather demeaning manner is what will drive the Scots out. The future of the Union is in the hands of the Unionists. Compromise or Separate, that is the choice. Remember how well the Better Together scare tactics worked in the referendum? Well, anti-Scottish sentiment is the successor of that. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/496 "2015-03-06T15:36:07Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > You misunderstand. Every British person currently resident in Scotland is eligible for a British Passport carrying with it British citizenship and European Citizenship. No group of people possessing Full British Nationality has ever been denied that full citizenship in their or their children’s lifetime. Ten per cent of Scots, like me and my children, are English born! > > Even Irish people born in Ireland before separation in 1948 are eligible for a British Passport (see Terry Wigan and his knighthood!) > > It would be two full generations before a majority of Scots would be denied full British citizenship or full European Citizenship. I’m well aware of that, but I can’t see why that should be an issue for the rest of the EU, as you implied it might. Each member state’s rules for granting its citizenship - and EU citizenship with it - are its own business, and not within EU competence; nor could any EU institution or other member state claim that it would make any great difference to them - unless large numbers of Scots decided to take advantage of freedom of movement to settle somewhere where enough locals - improbably - would decide to adopt a UKIP-style attitude towards them. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/497 "2015-03-06T15:40:52Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > Regarding the long and short term position of Scotland as a nation within the EU, in the short term an EFTA successor status would give access to the single market, and in the long term it is unthinkable that a relatively wealthy and advanced European nation would be denied eventual EU full membership. Indeed, but the issue would be the terms, on which other EU member states’ attitudes cannot be taken for granted. Any member government that finds its vote is important can very easily find its own list of things it would like considered by the others. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/498 "2015-03-06T15:41:03Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > And writing such in a rather demeaning manner is what will drive the Scots out. Considering withdrawing from the Union to be foolish, and not wanting the SNP to dictate terms, is demeaning? 😕 Is there _any_ way one can object to Scotland going independent without being accused of being demeaning or colonial? ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/499 "2015-03-06T15:42:18Z")
I have no idea where you get the idea that the Unionists aren’t compromising. There’s continuing dialogue, and further devolution. You don’t want compromise, though, and neither does the SNP. They want all their demands met under threat of disruption and, if they don’t get their way, flouncing out. Just like Greece is doing in the EU at the moment. That attitude won’t benefit either of them in the long run. You know the main point about compromise? It goes both ways. The compromise _was_ the referendum, that you and the SNP seem so keen to forget. Despite pledging to abide by the results. If the SNP refuse to compromise, then the UK should not bend over backwards to accommodate them, they should ignore them, treating them as the extremists they appear to be. If, as I hope but really don’t expect, the SNP in Parliament do their job and act for the interests of the whole UK, then a solution that benefits everybody, rather than harms everybody, will be possible. I really cannot understand how _anybody_ could look at the disproportionate amount of money and political power Scotland has compared to the other regions of the UK, and still claim that there’s been no compromise on the national Government’s part. There could, and should, come a point where the Government has to say enough is enough and for Scotland to start compromising as well. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/500 "2015-03-06T15:45:28Z")
> [@PatrickLondon](#): > > I’m well aware of that, but I can’t see why that should be an issue for the rest of the EU, as you implied it might. Each member state’s rules for granting its citizenship - and EU citizenship with it - are its own business, and not within EU competence; nor could any EU institution or other member state claim that it would make any great difference to them - unless large numbers of Scots decided to take advantage of freedom of movement to settle somewhere where enough locals - improbably - would decide to adopt a UKIP-style attitude towards them. But the point is that every current Scot and there progeny in future would be British Passport holders and hence EU citizens. That would be a major anomaly if Scotland were denied full membership of the EU. The Swiss and Norwegians have the rights to work in Europe, but are not European citizens. It would also mean that all or most of the citizens of a European country would have full rights of European citizens including freedom of movement, free health care, social security etc. Yet their country would be making no contribution of VAT etc. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637.md?page=24) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637.md?page=26)