# UK General Election 2015 predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 27, 2014, 10:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637 "2014-10-27T10:17:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 26
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/501 "2015-03-06T15:55:43Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > I have no idea where you get the idea that the Unionists aren’t compromising. There’s continuing dialogue, and further devolution. > > You don’t want compromise, though, and neither does the SNP. They want all their demands met under threat of disruption and, if they don’t get their way, flouncing out. Just like Greece is doing in the EU at the moment. > > That attitude won’t benefit either of them in the long run. You know the main point about compromise? It goes both ways. The compromise _was_ the referendum, that you and the SNP seem so keen to forget. Despite pledging to abide by the results. > > If the SNP refuse to compromise, then the UK should not bend over backwards to accommodate them, they should ignore them, treating them as the extremists they appear to be. If, as I hope but really don’t expect, the SNP in Parliament do their job and act for the interests of the whole UK, then a solution that benefits everybody, rather than harms everybody, will be possible. > > I really cannot understand how _anybody_ could look at the disproportionate amount of money and political power Scotland has compared to the other regions of the UK, and still claim that there’s been no compromise on the national Government’s part. > > There could, and should, come a point where the Government has to say enough is enough and for Scotland to start compromising as well. The point I am making is a subtle one. If one is a Unionist, then one should act to maintain the Union. Making extreme anti-SNP, and by extension anti-Scots, fhetoric is likely to make less likely the survival of the union. Such people should be called English Nationalists if they are English and acting in such a manner to drive the Scots out of the Union. Pieces like Max Hastings and John Major above may play well in England, but in Scotland they are seen as anti-Scottish and a temptation to say ‘sod you England’ and start voting in favour of separation. The people who should be called Unionists are those acting and speaking to cause conciliation. Such conciliation is probably going to involve a new constitutional settlement. This could well occur in a Labour LibDem administration supported by the SNP that moved to PR and devolved regions with a federal structure. That goal may be attainable. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/502 "2015-03-06T16:00:09Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > I have no idea where you get the idea that the Unionists aren’t compromising. There’s continuing dialogue, and further devolution. That may be the view from England, but the view up here is that what has been offered is insufficient. The only way for us to express that is by returning hordes of SNP MPs. Watch what happens. Remember there are only Six elected in 2010 and it looks like we are headed for 30-50 plus this time. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/503 "2015-03-06T16:02:02Z")
In the case of independence, it’s highly unlikely that the children of Scots born in Scotland would be British citizens. Of course, Scotland leaving the UK would make it more likely for the UK to leave the EU, neatly solving that problem. Assuming that only those resident in the UK get to vote, which is the current precedent for referenda. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/504 "2015-03-06T16:05:04Z")
On another note, the Broadcasters are playing hard ball and maintaining their insistence on debates during the campaign. There is an implied threat to empty chair Cameron. The letter concludes by TELLING Cameron when the debates will occur and that their format will be 7, 7, 2. I said when Cameron made his excuses this week that this was his Kinnock moment when Labour started losing in 1992. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/505 "2015-03-06T16:11:34Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > In the case of independence, it’s highly unlikely that the children of Scots born in Scotland would be British citizens. Of course, Scotland leaving the UK would make it more likely for the UK to leave the EU, neatly solving that problem. Assuming that only those resident in the UK get to vote, which is the current precedent for referenda. Children of Irish citizens born before 1949 inherit the right to citizenship but cannot pass it on to their children unless the children take up residence in the UK and gain automatic citizenship by continued residence. I cannot imagine Scotland being treated differently to Ireland. We have done this before and you failed to make a valid argument. Anyway, if Scotland separated in 2020, the majority of Scots would still have British and European passports until, say 2070, even ignoring children born of a British parent. With children included the date would push back to 2100. And a week is a long time in politics. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/506 "2015-03-06T16:20:05Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > Making extreme anti-SNP, and by extension anti-Scots, This is an extremely stupid statement; opposing the SNP is not racism. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/507 "2015-03-06T16:25:01Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > This is an extremely stupid statement; opposing the SNP is not racism. I did not say it was racist, merely that it might be perceived (and is perceived) as against the interests of Scotland and its inhabitants. Remember that nearly half of all Scots are now SNP voters and many more support further devolution. English commentators and politicians insisting on Unionism can easily be perceived as anti-Scots. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/508 "2015-03-06T16:30:24Z")
Signs of Tory panic: Sudden conversion on parking rules Cameron announces that he backs a vote on the repeal of the Hunting Ban. Two policies aimed at middle England! ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/509 "2015-03-06T16:33:25Z")
The Queen takes action to distance herself from publicity surrounding a hung parliament. > **[Queen 'may miss VE Day commemorations to distance herself from hung Parliament'](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/queen-elizabeth-II/11454989/Queen-preparing-to-distance-herself-from-hung-Parliament.html)** > > With polls predicting a hung Parliament after the May 7 election, it has been reported that Buckingham Palace wants to ensure that The Queen is 'one step removed' ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/510 "2015-03-06T19:32:22Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > Signs of Tory panic: > > Sudden conversion on parking rules > Cameron announces that he backs a vote on the repeal of the Hunting Ban. > > Two policies aimed at middle England! That’s more the sign of a party of very little ability, intellect or vision. Which is a fair summation of the current Tory party. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2015, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/511 "2015-03-07T00:54:48Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > On another note, the Broadcasters are playing hard ball and maintaining their insistence on debates during the campaign. There is an implied threat to empty chair Cameron. > > The letter concludes by TELLING Cameron when the debates will occur and that their format will be 7, 7, 2. > > I said when Cameron made his excuses this week that this was his Kinnock moment when Labour started losing in 1992. It wouldn’t take a genius to spin an “empty chair” debate into someone wasting their time when the PM has better things to do. If that tactic made Clint Eastwood look like an idiot, I can’t imagine it would be too hard to make Miliband or Farage look stupid. That’s if it would even be legal to hold debates that don’t feature all the main parties - at minimum, they would have to give Cameron screen time at some other point. TV debates are an absurd Americanism that serve no actual purpose anyway, so I’d rather do without them - even if they would show Miliband up for the stuffed shirt he is. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2015, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/512 "2015-03-07T01:01:05Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > That’s more the sign of a party of very little ability, intellect or vision. Which is a fair summation of the current Tory party. They are hardly the only party that applies to at the moment. Labour are directionless under Miliband, and the Lib Dems have no real position to fill at the moment. UKIP are (fortunately) losing support rapidly as they continue to show their true colours. The Greens remain a fringe, and my opinion of the SNP should be clear by now. I have no real idea what Plaid Cymru’s policies are to be honest, so I can’t comment on them. 7 parties who could all potentially be involved in government is absurd, unless the constantly shifting coalitions and unpredictable elections of southern Europe are something to aspire to… And I don’t think Italy or Greece are great role models. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2015, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/513 "2015-03-07T03:11:22Z")
All I know about British geography comes from this thread, so bear with me if I’m misinformed? But Scotland makes up what? 90% of British territory? 95%? I mean, I’m pretty sure that’s true, because this is a thread about the UK elections, and almost all of the posts are about Scotland, so I’m assuming, you know. Or is it that different regions take turns, and Scotland’s voting now and the Midlands are voting a year from now and so on? I mean, I’m not entirely sure how this works. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2015, 8:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/514 "2015-03-07T08:13:12Z")
> [@Captain\_Amazing](#): > > All I know about British geography comes from this thread, so bear with me if I’m misinformed? But Scotland makes up what? 90% of British territory? 95%? I mean, I’m pretty sure that’s true, because this is a thread about the UK elections, and almost all of the posts are about Scotland, so I’m assuming, you know. Or is it that different regions take turns, and Scotland’s voting now and the Midlands are voting a year from now and so on? I mean, I’m not entirely sure how this works. Scots are only 10% of the population but the vagaries of our first past the post system and the current drive for independence in Scotland have elevated those 10% into government kingmakers. The SNP will only get about 4% of all the votes cast but will get 8 to 9 per cent of the seats because its vote is geographically concentrated. UKIP with probably 15% of the vote will get less than one per cent of the seats because its vote is widely spread. Together with the fact that neither of the two main parties are at all popular means that minor parties have the deciding votes in forming a government. This is the reality. Many anti-nationalists would prefer that it was not the case and will put up arguments why the system should exclude the SNP. There is talk of a grand coalition between Labour and Conservative o exclude the SNP, but this would be seen as an anti-Scottish move which would stoke the flames under nationalism in Scotland that only avoided voting for independence five months ago. If Scotland was faced with a neo-liberal government again against its wishes then the pressure for a further referendum might become unavoidable. So we are in a position where Unionists could easily sleep walk into fomenting rebellion in Scotland and hence the end of the union. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2015, 8:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/515 "2015-03-07T08:18:36Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > It wouldn’t take a genius to spin an “empty chair” debate into someone wasting their time when the PM has better things to do. If that tactic made Clint Eastwood look like an idiot, I can’t imagine it would be too hard to make Miliband or Farage look stupid. That’s if it would even be legal to hold debates that don’t feature all the main parties - at minimum, they would have to give Cameron screen time at some other point. > > TV debates are an absurd Americanism that serve no actual purpose anyway, so I’d rather do without them - even if they would show Miliband up for the stuffed shirt he is. I think that Cameron has made a major tactical error here. He was portrayed last night by all broadcasters as superficial, frightened, distorting and dishonest ( they all played his parliamentary challenge to Gordon Brown to defend his record five years ago.) Both sides are now playing hard ball and the story is likely to drag on for many more days. The rule of politics is tat if a scandal is still running for over a week then permanent damage is done to that party. Let us see what the news is next week. It would not be ‘illegal’ to exclude Cameron if that is his choice. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2015, 8:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/516 "2015-03-07T08:23:03Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > TV debates are an absurd Americanism that serve no actual purpose anyway, so I’d rather do without them - even if they would show Miliband up for the stuffed shirt he is. Why then did Cameron argue so hard at PMQs in 2010 for Gordon Brown to face him in a TV debate to defend his record. Cameron looks a hypocrite when that clip is repeatedly played on various news outlets. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2015, 8:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/517 "2015-03-07T08:24:55Z")
The Sun take is that Cameron has been ‘bested’ by the broadcasters. Maybe they (or others) may send a giant chicken to stalk him. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2015, 8:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/518 "2015-03-07T08:32:37Z")
The SNP have clarified their objection over Trident. They would never vote to replace it, but would support a Labour Government on other issues in order to achieve a left of centre government. > **[Labour and SNP 'half way down aisle' to putting Miliband in Number 10](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2982663/Labour-SNP-half-way-aisle-striking-deal-Miliband-Number-10-Sturgeon-drops-red-line-Trident.html)** > > Ms Sturgeon said the SNP would still be prepared to put Mr Miliband in Downing Street even if Labour refused to scrap Britain's Trident nuclear deterrent – a key plank of the nationalists' manifesto. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2015, 8:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/519 "2015-03-07T08:44:45Z")
Someone’s finally mentioned the [unthinkable](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31776943). As the election gets closer, there will be a growing realisation that no functional government will be formed with the SNP. I doubt either Cameron or Miliband will have the balls to attempt a grand coalition, but it’s looking more and more like the only real option for those who want the UK to continue to exist, and actually be governed. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2015, 8:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/520 "2015-03-07T08:51:54Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > Why then did Cameron argue so hard at PMQs in 2010 for Gordon Brown to face him in a TV debate to defend his record. > > Cameron looks a hypocrite when that clip is repeatedly played on various news outlets. Because the debates only really benefit the challenger, although I don’t remember nonsensical 7-way “debates” happening at the last election. Yes, it’s a touch hypocritical, and were I Cameron I’d have been pushing for one head-to-head debate with Miliband. Mainly because Miliband is useless. If a 6-way debate without Cameron happens, and ends up as a squabbling shambles as it well might, there would be a perfect opportunity for the Tories to spin it as a waste of time while they got on with important matters. I could see this going either way, and due more to spin than substance. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637.md?page=25) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637.md?page=27)