# UK General Election 2015 predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 27, 2014, 10:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637 "2014-10-27T10:17:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2014, 10:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/101 "2014-11-09T10:26:54Z")
Peter Kellner on Andrew Marr this morning was supporting the view that there is a strong possibility that the SNP and maybe Ulster Unionists might be needed to maintain a Miliband government. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2014, 11:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/102 "2014-11-09T11:11:13Z")
Are not the Unionists more likely to join with the Tories? ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2014, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/103 "2014-11-09T16:16:19Z")
[http://www.telegraph.co.uk/history/britain-at-war/11218127/Jeremy-Paxman-Why-silence-is-not-enough.html](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/history/britain-at-war/11218127/Jeremy-Paxman-Why-silence-is-not-enough.html) Sturgeon admits support for or coalition with Labour is possible. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2014, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/104 "2014-11-09T16:18:48Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > Peter Kellner on Andrew Marr this morning was supporting the view that there is a strong possibility that the SNP and maybe Ulster Unionists might be needed to maintain a Miliband government. IIRC the Ulster Unionists helped Callaghan stay in power in the late seventies. Kellner did suggest that they might help Labour next year. ---
**Author:** ![SpaceDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spacedog/32/9932_2.png) [@SpaceDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpaceDog)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2014, 6:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/105 "2014-11-10T06:19:11Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > [http://www.telegraph.co.uk/history/britain-at-war/11218127/Jeremy-Paxman-Why-silence-is-not-enough.html](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/history/britain-at-war/11218127/Jeremy-Paxman-Why-silence-is-not-enough.html) > > Sturgeon admits support for or coalition with Labour is possible. Interesting link, but I think this one is more relevant to your point: [http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/sturgeon-won-t-rule-out-snp-and-labour-coalition-1-3599026](http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/sturgeon-won-t-rule-out-snp-and-labour-coalition-1-3599026) 😉 From that it looks like the SNP are smart enough to know siding with the Tories is a electoral suicide. And while they’re not ruling out a coalition I think just a support agreement is more likely. A formal coalition is likely to highlight the Scottish MPs voting for English measures issue and it gives the opposition too easy a target. Plus Labour don’t seem particularly keen on a coalition because they don’t want to compromise their plans. As for the Labour leadership – they don’t strike me as having the balls to actually get rid of Miliband. Any viable replacements seem to have ruled themselves out, so I’m not sure what all the griping is going to do short of allowing a bunch of people to say ‘I told you so’ after the election. Alternatively it may provide a way for Miliband to actually show some leadership, which may turn things around. Although interestingly if you read what Alan Johnson says in the Sunday Express he manages to be very clear about not wanting the job without explicitly saying he wouldn’t actually take it. There’s nothing in there that would prevent him having a ‘for the good of the party’ moment if Miliband stood down. ([EXCLUSIVE: Labour leadership challenge would be 'political suicide' | UK | News | Express.co.uk](http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/533120/EXCLUSIVE-Political-suicide-challenge-Ed-Miliband-Labour-warned)) ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2014, 11:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/106 "2014-11-10T11:28:10Z")
> [@MattPolitics](#): > > I think some Labour MP’s are so scared that a Miliband-Balls government would scare there voters away for 10+ years that they actually don’t even want to win this election. > [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](#): > > Do Labour even want to win the next election? I’m not sure. It looks like any next government is going to have to continue cutting and reducing public services, and maybe increase taxes. From Labour’s point of view it would be far better to allow the Tories to carry on doing what Tories do and then sweep back into power when they’ve sorted the economic disaster that was the last Labour government. If Labour believe at all in themselves and their politics then they should be desperate to get in ahead of the Tories, precisely because the Tories will carry on doing what they’re doing. That said, I’m sure a lot of MPs are thinking along these lines. [Lord Ashcroft’s marginal polling](http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/11/labour-ahead-tory-seats-much/#more-6580) is apparently suggesting that UKIP will do enough damage to the Tory vote to give Labour the edge in 38 seats - well ahead of the 21 net Tory–\> Labour swings needed to give Labour the most seats. So maybe the Conservatives are going to struggle to get the seats they need. But it’s not a huge lead, and there are other factors. ---
**Author:** ![MattPolitics](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/3be4f8/32.png) [@MattPolitics](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MattPolitics)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2014, 11:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/107 "2014-11-10T11:37:43Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > If Labour believe at all in themselves and their politics then they should be desperate to get in ahead of the Tories, precisely because the Tories will carry on doing what they’re doing. That said, I’m sure a lot of MPs are thinking along these lines. > > [Lord Ashcroft’s marginal polling](http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/11/labour-ahead-tory-seats-much/#more-6580) is apparently suggesting that UKIP will do enough damage to the Tory vote to give Labour the edge in 38 seats - well ahead of the 21 net Tory–\> Labour swings needed to give Labour the most seats. So maybe the Conservatives are going to struggle to get the seats they need. But it’s not a huge lead, and there are other factors. The fact that Electoral calculus now even are predicting Labour being short of a majority this far out is a bad bad sign for Labour, opposition governments really need a good lead at this point if they are to have any hope of a majority. The question now for me is whether Labour can stay ahead in enough marginals to just about win more seats than the Torys. It really is a 50/50 toss up at the moment. ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2014, 1:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/108 "2014-11-12T13:22:15Z")
The polls keep getting worse for Labour. Ashcroft on Twitter announcing his latest poll: [CON 32%, LAB 29%, UKIP 14%, LDEM 9%](https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/532513234512011264), the worst set of results for Labour since 2010. Given we have news today that unemployment has fallen again and wages have finally started to rise faster than inflation, removing a big plank of Miliband’s campaign with the “cost of living crisis”, how are Labour going to claw their way back? Meanwhile, [opening prices on BetFair](http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/11/10/the-opening-price-on-the-ge2015-spread-betting-markets-have-lab-just-18-seats-ahead-of-con-but-well-short-of-a-majority/) for the GE seem to be suggesting that there will be no practical way for any party to obtain a majority. ---
**Author:** ![BOOM](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/c4cdca/32.png) [@BOOM](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BOOM)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2014, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/109 "2014-11-12T14:02:40Z")
Still time for a coup. I quite fancy a Miliband/Cable coalition. ---
**Author:** ![MattPolitics](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/3be4f8/32.png) [@MattPolitics](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MattPolitics)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2014, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/110 "2014-11-12T17:00:04Z")
> [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](#): > > The polls keep getting worse for Labour. Ashcroft on Twitter announcing his latest poll: [CON 32%, LAB 29%, UKIP 14%, LDEM 9%](https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/532513234512011264), the worst set of results for Labour since 2010. Given we have news today that unemployment has fallen again and wages have finally started to rise faster than inflation, removing a big plank of Miliband’s campaign with the “cost of living crisis”, how are Labour going to claw their way back? > > Meanwhile, [opening prices on BetFair](http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/11/10/the-opening-price-on-the-ge2015-spread-betting-markets-have-lab-just-18-seats-ahead-of-con-but-well-short-of-a-majority/) for the GE seem to be suggesting that there will be no practical way for any party to obtain a majority. No Overall majority is the shortest price its ever been at this stage of an election cycle. The Torys to win most seats are good value at 2.18 (I backed them at 2.22 last week , I expect them to be around 1.75 on the night before the election). ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2014, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/111 "2014-11-13T15:50:24Z")
Salmond has said that the price for a confidence and supply agreement with Labour would likely be an agreement to a further referendum being held at the behest of Holyrood! > **[I'll demand ANOTHER Scottish referendum in return for propping up a Labour...](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2832714/I-ll-demand-Scottish-referendum-return-propping-Labour-government-says-Alex-Salmond.html)** > > The outgoing First Minister has revealed his price for the SNP's support should there be a hung parliament following May's General Election, putting Ed Miliband in a difficult position. ---
**Author:** ![notquitekarpov](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/71c47a/32.png) [@notquitekarpov](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notquitekarpov)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2014, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/112 "2014-11-13T17:14:32Z")
Fuck Alex Salmond. So much for a “once in a generation decision”… ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2014, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/113 "2014-11-13T17:49:38Z")
> [@notquitekarpov](#): > > Fuck Alex Salmond. So much for a “once in a generation decision”… I think that is the type of reaction Labour (or the Tories) will be up against if they go into any formal or informal coalition with the SNP. I can barely imagine a bigger turn off for many English voters than some sort of accomodation with the SNP in return for some Labour political advantage at Westminster. Any Party will seriously have to play hardball with the SNP in order to prevent a huge English electoral backlash against their own Party in the years ahead. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2014, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/114 "2014-11-13T18:57:22Z")
> [@notquitekarpov](#): > > Fuck Alex Salmond. So much for a “once in a generation decision”… Note that he is not demanding an immediate new referendum, just that any decision on it should be made by the Scottish people alone through their parliament rather than having to go (cap in hand) to Westminster to get permission. He wants an undertaking that future decisions on referenda on the future of Scotland should be the sole concern of the Scottish Parliament and People. If Scotland continues to elect Nationalist Governments with a manifesto commitment to Independence, how can any real democrat deny that the People and that Government the right to ballot for what they have voted for? It seems simple democracy to me. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2014, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/115 "2014-11-13T19:01:00Z")
Another million pounds for the SNP to ensure it remains the Government of Scotland: > **[Euromillions lottery winners donate further ÂŁ1m to SNP](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/13/euromillions-lottery-winners-donate-snp)** > > Scale of gifts given to Scottish National party put Labour under pressure to match that spending during the election campaign and that to be spread over fewer than sixty constituencies. Add to that the massive income from the quadrupling of SNP membership, that is going to make life difficult for Labour. ---
**Author:** ![notquitekarpov](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/71c47a/32.png) [@notquitekarpov](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notquitekarpov)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2014, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/116 "2014-11-13T22:44:49Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > I think that is the type of reaction Labour (or the Tories) will be up against if they go into any formal or informal coalition with the SNP. I can barely imagine a bigger turn off for many English voters than some sort of accomodation with the SNP in return for some Labour political advantage at Westminster. Any Party will seriously have to play hardball with the SNP in order to prevent a huge English electoral backlash against their own Party in the years ahead. Well I am neither, and I wouldn’t touch the smug fuck with a shitty stick. ---
**Author:** ![notquitekarpov](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/71c47a/32.png) [@notquitekarpov](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notquitekarpov)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2014, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/117 "2014-11-13T23:15:31Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > Note that he is not demanding an immediate new referendum, just that any decision on it should be made by the Scottish people alone through their parliament rather than having to go (cap in hand) to Westminster to get permission. He wants an undertaking that future decisions on referenda on the future of Scotland should be the sole concern of the Scottish Parliament and People. > > If Scotland continues to elect Nationalist Governments with a manifesto commitment to Independence, how can any real democrat deny that the People and that Government the right to ballot for what they have voted for? It seems simple democracy to me. That’s rich coming from you - who showed no regard whatsoever for a result that, had it gone the other way, would have been the “settled will of the Scottish people”. Like fuck we are going give the SNP the right to call a referendum whenever they think everything is lining up nicely for them to have a chance. The future of the Union requires the input of the Union and not rely on a bunch of traitors to call the shots. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2014, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/118 "2014-11-13T23:22:55Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > Note that he is not demanding an immediate new referendum, just that any decision on it should be made by the Scottish people alone through their parliament rather than having to go (cap in hand) to Westminster to get permission. He wants an undertaking that future decisions on referenda on the future of Scotland should be the sole concern of the Scottish Parliament and People. You are a massive optimist/fantasist if you think that is even remotely possible. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2014, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/119 "2014-11-13T23:29:59Z")
> [@notquitekarpov](#): > > That’s rich coming from you - who showed no regard whatsoever for a result that, had it gone the other way, would have been the “settled will of the Scottish people”. > > Like fuck we are going give the SNP the right to call a referendum whenever they think everything is lining up nicely for them to have a chance. The future of the Union requires the input of the Union and not rely on a bunch of traitors to call the shots. So you do not agree that nations have a right to self-determination? If the Scottish electorate chooses a government who include Independence in its manifesto and opinion polls show (as they do currently) that there is a majority for Independence, then they should not have that will thwarted by another government. Current opinion polls show 52-60% majority for independence and 75% plus for Devo max or home rule. It is not over yet. Let us see how the promises made before the referendum are carried out. If the vow is well met to a level that satisfies the people of Scotland, then Independence should slip off the agenda. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2014, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637/120 "2014-11-13T23:32:24Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > You are a massive optimist/fantasist if you think that is even remotely possible. Let us see how desperate a potential government is to gain power. It could even be the SNP agreeing a confidence and supply arrangement with the Tories! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2015-predictions/702637.md?page=7)