# UK General Election {2024-07-04} **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 22, 2024, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932 "2024-05-22T23:15:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2024, 6:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/241 "2024-06-22T06:06:30Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > I’m confident we will see more revelations about the questionable views of Reform Farage’s latest grab for the headlines: > **[Nigel Farage claims Russia was provoked into Ukraine war](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/21/russia-was-provoked-into-ukraine-war-claims-nigel-farage)** > > Farage, who has long been accused of being a Putin apologist, tells BBC Moscow was given excuse by EU and Nato eastern expansion ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2024, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/242 "2024-06-22T16:15:24Z")
Why does it seem like Farage and Just Stop Oil are doing more to get people to vote Tory than Sunak is? ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2024, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/243 "2024-06-22T16:51:24Z")
> [@leahcim](#): > > Kind of mirrors what happened with the PCs and Reform Party in Canada in the 90s. Reform showed up as a reactionary right party, could never get more that regional support on its own, but sucked enough support away from the PCs that they were routed (it what admittedly would have been a major loss anyway). It wasn’t quite that; the PC coalition under Mulroney was breaking up two different ways: western alienation/Reform, and Québéc nationalism/Bloc Québécois. Reform didn’t have a break-through in Central Canada in 1993 because they weren’t running any candidates there, that election. They were consciously a western party, campaigning on “The West Wants In!” They won 52 seats. They won 1 seat in Ontario, a bit of an outlier. The Bloc had formed two years earlier, in 1991, after the failure of the Meech Lake Accord. Sovereigntists PCs, as well as some Liberals, left their former parties to form the Bloc. In the 1993 election, they won 53 seats, and formed the Official Opposition. The PCs/Tories, pulled apart in two different directions regionally, and carrying 9 years of baggage that affected their support in Ontario, collapsed, and only won 2 seats: 1 in Quebec, and 1 in New Brunswick. Prime Minister Campbell lost her own seat in Vancouver, BC. The Liberals swept Ontario, gaining 98 of 99 seats. > [@](#): > > Then later the two conservative parties, realizing that neither one had a hope of winning if they kept splitting the vote, merged into a combined party, making the whole thing basically just a shakeup in the leadership of the Canadian right. Again, I would say it was a bit more complicated than that, not just a leadership change. The new party was a more clearly to the right, with the Red Tories leaving the new Conservative Party, usually for the Liberals. Scott Brison, Keith Martin, and Belinda Stronach were examples. ---
**Author:** ![Treppenwitz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/treppenwitz/32/3445_2.png) [@Treppenwitz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Treppenwitz)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2024, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/244 "2024-06-22T18:16:43Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > To me, not as bad a faux pas as almost anything else Reform says, but unlike nonsense on climate change and foreigners, this one would piss off their base. Well, here’s something that could (should) piss off half their base: > **[Reform UK candidates' offensive remarks uncovered by BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crggy73m2ero)** > > The comments included remarks about murdered MP Jo Cox and a black reality TV contestant. > **Eight Reform UK candidates have made a wide range of offensive remarks online about women in the past, the BBC can reveal.** > > The remarks include disparaging comments about the murdered MP Jo Cox, former Prime Minister Theresa May, and a black reality TV contestant… And, hilariously: > Earlier this week, the party said it planned to sue a company it hired to vet potential MPs. j (Yes, I know that both men and women ought to be pissed off at this behavior; but we’re talking about Reform supporters - so I’m not overly optimistic) ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2024, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/245 "2024-06-22T18:36:09Z")
> [@PatrickLondon](#): > > That’s what’s being investigated, though I doubt there’s cast-iron evidence of anything more than a lucky guess, given the ongoing speculation about dates. But that still doesn’t look good in the light of professional codes of discipline. Surely, even betting on something you could have had inside information on is illegal? ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2024, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/246 "2024-06-22T19:43:21Z")
For a criminal prosecution, if there’s room for doubt, the defendant gets the benefit of it. “Could have done it” hardly proves anything: anyone who follows the news _could_ have thought it worth betting on a July election. Professional standards are something else, though. ---
**Author:** ![Mk\_VII](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Mk\_VII](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mk_VII)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2024, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/247 "2024-06-22T19:55:44Z")
For a brief time we had fixed parliament terms, but it turned out nobody really liked this arrangement, common though it may be in other countries, so we put everything back the way it was again. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2024, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/248 "2024-06-22T20:13:04Z")
The Fixed Term Parliament Act was a Lib Dem fantasy. If government wants an election, no sane leader of His Majesty’s Opposition is going to say no. Government voting Aye along with the Opposition will alway result in a GE. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2024, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/249 "2024-06-22T20:31:23Z")
> [@PatrickLondon](#): > > For a criminal prosecution, if there’s room for doubt, the defendant gets the benefit of it. “Could have done it” hardly proves anything: anyone who follows the news _could_ have thought it worth betting on a July election. That’s why one would presumably make it a crime for people in certain positions with access to certain information to bet. There’s room for doubt that members of the government did bet based on inside information, but there’s no room for doubt that it could have been based on inside information. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2024, 5:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/250 "2024-06-23T05:51:53Z")
The criminal offence isn’t specified to particular offices or positions, just to cheating in general: > **[Gambling Act 2005](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/19/section/42)** > > An Act to make provision about gambling. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2024, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/251 "2024-06-23T14:08:07Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > If government wants an election, no sane leader of His Majesty’s Opposition is going to say no. > > Government voting Aye along with the Opposition will alway result in a GE. I’m not so sure that’s true. At least as a matter of game theory. If the Government wants an early election, clearly they see themselves as winning it, and also are concerned that they expect their electoral position to weaken going forward. IOW, they’re willing to trade the small chance of losing now for a larger chance of losing later when their full term is up. They give up the sure thing of being in government for the remainder of the current term in exchange for the chance of renewal of their mandate and a longer total term. They _expect_ to win; but they also know they might not. If the Opposition holds similar views, namely that they are likely to lose this time, but will likely do better in a couple more years, they’d have no reason to back the government in asking for what looks to them like a slam-dunk extension of the other guy’s mandate. To be sure, if both parties’ view of their electoral chances today are excessively rosy, they’ll both be eager to wipe out the other guys post haste. And hence vote unanimously for an early election. While politicians are noted for their rosy optimism about their own personal specialness, that doesn’t necessarily scale to entire parties. And especially not in the current circumstances where Labour has large objective reasons for optimism and the Conservatives … do not. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2024, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/252 "2024-06-23T14:33:11Z")
Parliament doesn’t vote on whether there’s to be an election; when the Fixed Term Parliaments Act was dropped, it’s back to the old way - PM’s judgement and formal approval by HM. The requirement for a vote was to stop either party in the coalition from collapsing it to force an election. ---
**Author:** ![Treppenwitz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/treppenwitz/32/3445_2.png) [@Treppenwitz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Treppenwitz)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2024, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/253 "2024-06-23T20:02:28Z")
More on that betting scandal… > **[More people investigated over general election bet allegations](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crgggw4qkxzo)** > > The regulator is looking at other people with links to the Conservative Party, Chris Mason writes. > Other people linked to the Conservative Party or the government are being looked into by the Gambling Commission, I am told… > > …Part of the inquiries the betting industry conducts in instances like this is attempting to establish if bets have been placed not just by those who may have had access to privileged information, but those with connections to them too. > > This can involve a trawl of social media, for instance, to try to establish digital fingerprints that may provide suggestions about how people may know each other. j ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2024, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/254 "2024-06-24T02:44:51Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > > [@dalej42](#): > > > > If government wants an election, no sane leader of His Majesty’s Opposition is going to say no. > > > > Government voting Aye along with the Opposition will alway result in a GE. > > I’m not so sure that’s true. At least as a matter of game theory. In _real politick_, any opposition which does not consider itself, or at minimum projecting the capability, to be ready to govern now, gifts the government another term. There is also the usual election drift from the (generally) commanding election win which brings them to power through the progressive and accumulated losses at general elections and by-elections that puts them in a position of being vulnerable to lose. So each election offers the expectation of making the opposition stronger, allowing for bringing in new/fresher faces. Not that they have any say in the matter but the opposition always welcome elections. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2024, 11:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/255 "2024-06-24T11:02:33Z")
> [@PatrickLondon](#): > > The criminal offence isn’t specified to particular offices or positions, just to cheating in general: But is this really cheating? I mean, it’s sleazy and awful and morally abject, but how did they cheat? This isn’t a horse race, where the only way to know the result ahead of time is to cheat _in the race itself_. Nor is it betting on a future event like a White Christmas, where no-one can possibly know for certain ahead of time whether it will occur or not. The gambling companies, in their wisdom, chose to offer the public the opportunity to bet on the date of an event that by definition a small number of people would have certain knowledge of ahead of time. They meant of course to attract bets from people who did not have such certain knowledge. But of course they knew there would be insiders who could (sleazily) use that knowledge to place a sure thing bet. They seemed to have assumed (as we all had) that no-one would actually do that. But it’s not cheating. It’s not nobbling the favourite. The CCHQ clowns didn’t propose the bet to the bookies, or fake ignorance to sucker them in. I don’t particularly see why the bookies should be protected for the consequences of what was a fairly silly thing to open book on. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2024, 11:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/256 "2024-06-24T11:13:57Z")
In other [news](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jun/24/general-election-tobias-ellwood-election-date-betting-rishi-sunak-conservatives-labour-keir-starmer-uk-politics-latest-updates?page=with:block-6679402a8f089e1574dbd2b0#block-6679402a8f089e1574dbd2b0), the Institute of Fiscal Studies have come out guns blazing at both major parties for their dishonesty with the public: > Public services are visibly struggling. Despite these high tax levels, spending on many public services will likely need to be cut over the next five years if government debt is not to ratchet ever upwards or unless taxes are increased further. > > How can that be? A £50bn a year increase in debt interest spending relative to forecasts and a growing welfare budget bear much of the responsibility. Then we have rising health spending, a defence budget which for the first time in decades will likely grow rather than shrink, and the reality of demographic change and the need to transition to net zero. Add in low growth and the after-effects of the pandemic and energy price crisis and you have a toxic mix indeed when it comes to the public finances. > > These raw facts are largely ignored by the two main parties in their manifestos. That huge decisions over the size and shape of the state will need to be taken, that those decisions will, in all likelihood, mean either higher taxes or worse public services, you would not guess from reading their prospectuses or listening to their promises. They have singularly failed even to acknowledge some of the most important issues and choices to have faced us for a very 1 long time. This is of course basically correct - public services are on their knees from over a decade of austerity, welfare costs are set to rise along with the median age of the population, even getting back to where we were in 2010 in terms of public services will require a massive increase in spending - and no one is talking about it. Worse, they are all merrily ruling out the sort of tax rises (or borrowing!) that would be needed to achieve this. So…either they’re lying or the plan really is to let things continue to slide. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2024, 12:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/257 "2024-06-24T12:09:23Z")
What, you expect a political party to say it’s going to raise taxes - before an election? When they want people to vote for them? ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2024, 12:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/258 "2024-06-24T12:32:44Z")
Oh, I understand perfectly well why they’re doing it - they assume we’re a bunch of maximally selfish short-termist fucking morons who demand gold-standard public services and permanent low tax rates and decreasing government deficits all at the same time, and they’re afraid that if they did anything as dangerous as tell the truth (i.e. if you want a functioning NHS and water that isn’t full of shit then you’re going to have to pay for it) then we’d stamp our little feet and vote for the guys who happily write checks they can’t cash because we simply can’t comprehend trade-offs or cost-benefit analysis. But we’ve spent at least the last 14 years operating on that assumption, and the point we’ve got to is: everyone agrees that everything is fucked. The reason the Tories are looking down the business end of an electoral landslide or even total wipeout is because everyone agrees that everything is fucked. And Labour are in line for such a mahoosive majority that they could in fact dabble in a little truth telling, or at the very least not definitively rule out tax rises unprompted, so that when they get into government - even with a smaller majority than they might otherwise have had - they will have an actual mandate to do the stuff that needs done, rather than painting themselves into the corner of letting everything continue to go to shit because no-one voted for anything different. Because if they do get in and let everything go to shit, that massive majority ain’t gonna last anyhow. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2024, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/259 "2024-06-24T13:29:20Z")
How it started: > [@PatrickLondon](#): > > Farage’s latest grab for the headlines: > > [Nigel Farage claims Russia was provoked into Ukraine war | Nigel Farage | The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/21/russia-was-provoked-into-ukraine-war-claims-nigel-farage) How it’s going: > ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2024, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/260 "2024-06-24T13:30:48Z")
The politically smart way to do it is to (a) _first_ get into power, and (b) _then_ say “now we’ve got a close look, they’ve fucked things even worse than we expected, and some financial correction will be necessary due to their malfeasance.” I presume this will be the preferred model. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932.md?page=14)