# UK General Election {2024-07-04} **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 22, 2024, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932 "2024-05-22T23:15:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2024, 10:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/161 "2024-06-11T10:21:56Z")
They certainly couldn’t do a sacred oath of fellowship - nothing is sacred to either of those parties. But I suspected it wasn’t an option, otherwise it would have been done more often. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2024, 10:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/162 "2024-06-11T10:27:32Z")
You can totally see Mordaunt and Farage entering into negotiations over a merger and both walking away thinking “Can’t believe that sucker fell for that, I am so going to screw them over”. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2024, 10:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/163 "2024-06-11T10:38:08Z")
Penny Mordaunt may not even get back into the Commons. As the polls are, it’s not at all clear which senior Tories actually will. > [@Stanislaus](#): > > They’d have to genuinely merge to become one new political party, with all that would entail. Which is what Farage is openly hankering for, a Canada-style reverse takeover of the Tory Party. But since he’s unlikely to bring more than himself into the parliamentary arithmetic, that doesn’t seem likely ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2024, 10:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/164 "2024-06-11T10:45:41Z")
Meanwhile, various MRP models have come out, and are predicting potential wipe-out for the Tories. YouGov gave a horrific-but-is-about-to-start-looking-optimistic prediction of 140 Tory MPs. Survation predicts 71 Electoral Calculator predicts 76 And that’s based on pre-Farage, pre-D-day polling. If you plug the latest Redfield and Winton Poll (Labour 46%, Tories 19%, Reform 17%, LD 10%) into the FT’s DIY predictor ( [Predict the UK general election result (ft.com)](https://ig.ft.com/uk-general-election/2024/projection/?constituency=E14001295)) then you get… 34 Tory MPs. Just one poll, just a bit of fun, but as @PatrickLondon says, this is looking cataclysmic. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2024, 10:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/165 "2024-06-11T10:51:41Z")
_Oh no._ Anyway ---
**Author:** ![colinfred](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colinfred/32/21338_2.png) [@colinfred](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/colinfred)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2024, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/166 "2024-06-11T10:52:32Z")
At this point even if I was a big Labour fan I would be looking to vote Tory just to ameliorate the juggernaut. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2024, 10:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/167 "2024-06-11T10:56:10Z")
At the risk of repeating myself, too big a majority could indeed be a headache for Starmer and his Chief Whip. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2024, 11:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/168 "2024-06-11T11:05:29Z")
A joke that goes back to at least Yes Minister: Government minister; Right, time to go to the despatch box and deal with the enemy. Aide: You mean the [other party]? GM: What? No! They’re just the opposition. The enemy are those bastards sitting behind me. And if you want to play fun and games with new parties. Labour could end up with such a big majority they could detail say, 80 of their MPs to “split”, form a new party that would be the official Opposition, and spend their time asking PMQs like “Isn’t it tough being so great?” and still have a straight majority for “official” Labour. Whereas what Starmer will be worried about is 80-100 MPs who actually are an effective internal opposition and are very hard to discipline because there aren’t enough government jobs to buy them off or threaten them with. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2024, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/169 "2024-06-12T14:11:02Z")
More embarrassment for the Tories: > **[Tory candidate Andrea Jenkyns features Farage on election leaflet](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5114vnje68o)** > > Dame Andrea Jenkyns says she wants Reform UK to unite with the Tories to prevent a Labour "supermajority". > **[Tories fighting to prevent Labour winning ‘supermajority’, says Shapps](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/12/tories-fighting-prevent-labour-supermajority-election-grant-shapps)** > > Defence secretary says even bigger win than 1997 landslide would be ‘very bad news’ for country ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2024, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/170 "2024-06-12T14:30:18Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > 34 Tory MPs. Ah, how the land slides. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2024, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/171 "2024-06-12T14:51:49Z")
OK, I’m back to not understanding. How would Reform and Conservative merging prevent a Labour supermajority? Labour would still have the same seats, no? Or, wait, I think I get it: There are some districts where Labour will currently have a plurality, but not a majority, and if the non-Labour voters in those districts unite behind one candidate, then that Retory candidate would beat Labour. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2024, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/172 "2024-06-12T15:25:03Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > OK, I’m back to not understanding. How would Reform and Conservative merging prevent a Labour supermajority? Labour would still have the same seats, no? Short answer is that an R&C merger wouldn’t prevent a supermajority, that’s not what @Gyrate was getting at. The question was aimed at the post-election make up of the House of Commons. Being the second largest party is important because it makes you the official Opposition, which gives you rights to more questions at PMQs, places on Select Committees etc. The hypothetical merger would be a way for a third-placed (per current polling predictions) Conservative Party to combine seats with Reform so as to leap frog the second-placed party (in this scenario, the Lib Dems) and become the official Opposition. Doesn’t change things re. Labour’s majority, but does have quite a significant effect on the status of the Conservative (& Reform) party. > [@Chronos](#): > > Or, wait, I think I get it: There are some districts where Labour will currently have a plurality, but not a majority, and if the non-Labour voters in those districts unite behind one candidate, then that Retory candidate would beat Labour. Not what was being aimed at, but theoretically true that a united anti-Labour vote could scrape a majority in some places (although with national polls reading c. 45 vs [19+17], not too many such places). However, impossible to do now that nominations have closed and candidates are now official. It could be an idea that comes up at the next election, depending on the relative fortunes of the three parties. ---
**Author:** ![leahcim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/b4bc9f/32.png) [@leahcim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/leahcim)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2024, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/173 "2024-06-12T15:45:37Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > It could be an idea that comes up at the next election, depending on the relative fortunes of the three parties. Kind of mirrors what happened with the PCs and Reform Party in Canada in the 90s. Reform showed up as a reactionary right party, could never get more that regional support on its own, but sucked enough support away from the PCs that they were routed (it what admittedly would have been a major loss anyway). Then later the two conservative parties, realizing that neither one had a hope of winning if they kept splitting the vote, merged into a combined party, making the whole thing basically just a shakeup in the leadership of the Canadian right. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2024, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/174 "2024-06-12T15:49:08Z")
> [@leahcim](#): > > Kind of mirrors what happened with the PCs and Reform Party in Canada in the 90s. For those not familiar with Canadian politics, what is PC? ---
**Author:** ![leahcim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/b4bc9f/32.png) [@leahcim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/leahcim)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2024, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/175 "2024-06-12T15:55:06Z")
Progressive Conservative. Also known as the Tories, because they were kind of the direct peer of the Tories in Britain. ---
**Author:** ![Wrenching\_Spanners](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ecb155/32.png) [@Wrenching\_Spanners](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wrenching_Spanners)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2024, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/176 "2024-06-12T18:45:45Z")
> [@Shalmanese](#): > > So say Labor wins 450 seats, Tories win 65 seats and Lib Dems win 60 seats. Could Labor find 6 MPs that suddenly “defect” to being Lib Dems, thus depriving Tories of being official opposition status? Would this be of any benefit to Labor? Is there any conceivable universe where that would happen? > > Hell, if they win the seats projected, they could split into Labor 1 and Labor 2 and be their own opposition and shut everyone else out of governing essentially? The Speaker of the House of Commons is the ultimate decider of the Leader of the Opposition. Lindsay Hoyle takes his responsibilities in that role seriously. He’s been accused of being anti-Labour despite being a previous Labour MP. I seriously doubt he’d allow any shenanigans for creating a false opposition party. ---
**Author:** ![Mk\_VII](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Mk\_VII](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mk_VII)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2024, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/177 "2024-06-12T22:07:59Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > Being the second largest party is important because it makes you the official Opposition, which gives you rights to more questions at PMQs, places on Select Committees etc. And access to Short Money (named after Ted Short, who introduced it). ---
**Author:** ![Smid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/838e76/32.png) [@Smid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smid)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2024, 9:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/178 "2024-06-13T09:59:20Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > You can totally see Mordaunt and Farage entering into negotiations over a merger and both walking away thinking “Can’t believe that sucker fell for that, I am so going to screw them over”. Sounds a lot like Von Papen and Hitler there… ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2024, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/179 "2024-06-13T21:32:20Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > If even one poll shows Reform in second, you can expect to see massive panic in the ranks of the Conservatives. And it has just happened… [![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GP-i5XmWIAA8abD?format=jpg&name=large) ](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GP-i5XmWIAA8abD?format=jpg&name=large) I take no joy in this. The Tories deserve a complete shellacking, but Reform becoming a genuine political force is hugely concerning. It remains to be seen how such a share performance translates into representation in parliament. I’m still dubious they can win many seats… ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2024, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932/180 "2024-06-13T22:10:10Z")
I would be less bothered by Reform if it didn’t contain so many of the same Tories who were absolutely fine with all the corruption, criminality, incompetence and moral bankruptcy of the Conservative Party but jumped ship to avoid the consequences of it. I mean, Lee Anderson should be on some sort of watchlist, not in Parliament. The man is a sociopath. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-2024-07-04/1001932.md?page=10)