# UK General Election May 2015 (Population Share Version) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 2, 2015, 10:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612 "2015-04-02T10:29:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 15
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2015, 8:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/281 "2015-04-30T08:26:59Z")
The Tories are denying it, but they’re planning £12 billion in cuts and can’t explain where they are coming from! They won’t touch pensions, raising taxes is out, raising money from non-doms is out, they’ll pledge to ringfence NHS spending again, the military has had its funding cut massively, etc. which leaves very little left to cut other than things like child benefit. Incidentally, I think this has been one of the worst electoral campaigns by a sitting government party that I’ve seen. I’m not convinced these “campaign consultants” like Lynton Crosby actually translate outside of their own country. All of this negative campaigning on the part of the Tories may play well in Australia but it hasn’t gone down particularly well here. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2015, 11:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/282 "2015-04-30T11:38:57Z")
Given that they were meant to have opened up a lead now, it’s definitely failed. Scroll down on this [Seat Calculator](http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/) and you can see predictions of who will win which seat (of the 150 most likely to change hands). It’s based on Ashcroft constituency polls or an Electoral Calculus alternative to uniform swing. If accurate, it suggests that the Tories are only winning seats from the Lib Dems, while Labour are winning from the Tories. Anecdotally, I’ve heard that Dave and Boris’s wallkabouts are more often in Tory seats than Labour ones. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2015, 12:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/283 "2015-04-30T12:21:53Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > The rational thing for a Tory to do in other seats is to vote to limit Labour seats; this obviously works best by increasing the SNP vote. Given that the SNP is further from the Conservatives than Labour, the sensible thing for a Tory to do would be to vote Labour. Scottish unionists have been trying to get people to do that, but only time will tell if they’ll be successful. Unless you’re voting in the expectation that the not-coalition will collapse and The Boris will sweep to power in a couple of years rather than five years. Which seems too much of a gamble for me. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2015, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/284 "2015-04-30T12:30:05Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > Scroll down on this [Seat Calculator](http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/) and you can see predictions of who will win which seat (of the 150 most likely to change hands). It’s based on Ashcroft constituency polls or an Electoral Calculus alternative to uniform swing. If accurate, it suggests that the Tories are only winning seats from the Lib Dems, while Labour are winning from the Tories. Anecdotally, I’ve heard that Dave and Boris’s wallkabouts are more often in Tory seats than Labour ones. Phew - that’s a mess. If we assume that the “May2015 Predicts” result is accurate the Conservatives may come out in front with 277 but who apart from UKIP and the DUP (who aren’t going to give them another 49 seats) are they going to ally with to get them up to 326? Definitely not the SNP and presumably not the LibDems, which means they’re stuffed. Conversely a Labour-SNP link-up of some sort still leaves them four votes shy of 326, which means they’ll need the LibDems OR a selection of tiny parties such as PC and the Greens to get there. Still, it’s more likely than a right-wing government. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2015, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/285 "2015-04-30T13:11:38Z")
Yes, it’s always been hard to see a Conservative-led coalition. (I think they would partner with Lib Dems, but it won’t be enough.) But the Labour options are really interesting. There is a huge difference between a Labour+SNP = majority scenario and one where they need a third (and fourth?) party to get over the line. Labour/SNP/LibDem would probably be more acceptable to a lot of people, on the assumption the SNP wouldn’t have as much bargaining power and could themselves be “reined in” by the Lib Dems. But it would make for a much more complex dynamic and would thus be much more unstable. A Lab/SNP/minor parties scenario would be unwelcome, I think, because it could be painted as handing veto power to the sole Green MP. (Are there any independents standing with a hope of winning? That could be hilarious.) ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2015, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/286 "2015-04-30T13:18:19Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > (Are there any independents standing with a hope of winning? That could be hilarious.) [This is the sketch I was thinking of](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8cV3u_DR8M) - Burnistoun’s Dekebone Roundabout candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2015, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/287 "2015-04-30T13:29:32Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > (Are there any independents standing with a hope of winning? That could be hilarious.) Well, there’s George Galloway but nobody in their right mind would give him any influence. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2015, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/288 "2015-04-30T14:55:19Z")
Christ, what a thought. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2015, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/289 "2015-04-30T17:18:52Z")
CNN on why Americans should care about how Brits vote: [http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/30/politics/uk-elections-david-cameron-ed-miliband/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/30/politics/uk-elections-david-cameron-ed-miliband/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2015, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/290 "2015-05-01T19:27:39Z")
If Miliband comes out in full swing in support of a SNP Coalition, he is literally writing off Labour in Scotland, he cannot afford to do that. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2015, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/291 "2015-05-02T03:00:54Z")
CNN on the poisonous atmosphere among the British electorate: [http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/01/politics/uk-elections-david-cameron-ed-milliband/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/01/politics/uk-elections-david-cameron-ed-milliband/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2015, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/292 "2015-05-02T15:22:33Z")
If they name her Davidia, Edwina or Nicola (two for one!), all bets are off: [http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/02/europe/uk-royal-baby-duchess-of-cambridge-hospitalized/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/02/europe/uk-royal-baby-duchess-of-cambridge-hospitalized/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2015, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/293 "2015-05-02T15:42:57Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > If they name her Davidia, Edwina or Nicola (two for one!), all bets are off: [http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/02/europe/uk-royal-baby-duchess-of-cambridge-hospitalized/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/02/europe/uk-royal-baby-duchess-of-cambridge-hospitalized/index.html) As long as she isn’t Nigella… ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2015, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/294 "2015-05-02T16:43:48Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > The rational thing for a Tory to do in other seats is to vote to limit Labour seats; this obviously works best by increasing the SNP vote. Perhaps you’ve forgotten that the party is called the Scottish Conservative and **Unionist** Party? ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2015, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/295 "2015-05-02T23:48:27Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Perhaps you’ve forgotten that the party is called the Scottish Conservative and **Unionist** Party? Yes. Note Conservative first and Unionist second. The only hope of them surviving is a massive SNP drubbing of Labour. Everything hey are doing at the moment is assisting that. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2015, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/296 "2015-05-03T17:19:17Z")
So, even though nothing’s written in stone (satire), I’m beginning to think/panic that the Tories are going to edge it. I know things are stacked against them, but the polls seem to be shifting ever so slightly their way, and I think they could pick up a lot of UKIP and shy Tory votes in the privacy of the booth. Then there’s: [this:](http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/) > [@](#): > > Postal voting started in mid-April. Over 5 million are expected to cast their ballot in this way and over the last week, local teams from all parties have attended postal vote opening sessions in each constituency. > > Although the parties are legally not allowed to tally votes at these events, they all do and the constituency teams then dutifully pass their field intelligence back to HQ. > > These are not opinion polls results or canvass returns but actual votes, hundreds of thousands of votes, from across Britain. Numbers have been flowing from each marginal to party strategists to give the most accurate picture of the current state of play. > > Labour insiders familiar with the latest figures have told Uncut that the picture for Labour in marginal seats, where it is fighting the Tories, is almost uniformly grim. > > Seats that canvass returns had suggested were strong prospects for gains are much more finely balanced and those that were close are swinging heavily to the Tories. On the other hand, the England only polls I’ve seen still say its damn close. Too close for the Tories to actually swing a majority coalition. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2015, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/297 "2015-05-03T17:45:47Z")
[http://twitter.com/alstewitn/status/594915714898776064/photo/1](http://twitter.com/alstewitn/status/594915714898776064/photo/1) This is my fear. The Tory vote is firmer. The Ukip waverers break Tory, as do some Labour. Shifts 3-4% for Tories. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2015, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/298 "2015-05-03T17:46:35Z")
Thanks, Stanislau. That article also relates that the SNP may not be in for sweep they think. With their supporters so optimistic that might lead to some hysterics when the polls start coming in. Interesting times. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2015, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/299 "2015-05-03T18:55:24Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > Yes. Note Conservative first and Unionist second. That’s a very long reach. We’ll see on Friday. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2015, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/300 "2015-05-03T21:41:36Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Thanks, Stanislau. That article also relates that the SNP may not be in for sweep they think. With their supporters so optimistic that might lead to some hysterics when the polls start coming in. > > Interesting times. From my own point of view I hope Labour retain enough seats to equal the Tories, but the SNP get the rest. I have no problem as I am in the only Tory SNP marginal, Labour are a sad third. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612.md?page=14) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612.md?page=16)