# UK General Election May 2015 (Population Share Version) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 2, 2015, 10:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612 "2015-04-02T10:29:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 24
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2015, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/461 "2015-05-07T21:05:08Z")
OMG the BBC exit poll WTF? CON on 316 according to their polling. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2015, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/462 "2015-05-07T21:06:02Z")
Well if that exit poll C4 have just shown is accurate I’ll be a happy chappy. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2015, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/463 "2015-05-07T21:06:39Z")
> [@hammos1](#): > > Exit poll: > Con 316/ Lab 239/ SNP 58/ Lib Dem 10/ PC 4/ UKIP 2/ Green 2/ Others 19 > > Much higher total seats for the Conservative than expected. That is radically different from every single polling company in the run up to election day. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2015, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/464 "2015-05-07T21:16:51Z")
Exit polls have been wrong before. I’d rather focus on the final result rather than calling it a day now. Many of these declarations will be right down to the wire. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2015, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/465 "2015-05-07T21:16:59Z")
I don’t understand this, how is Labour Polling 239! They’ve been saying for months the Tories and Labour would be polling close to each other. This is an awful disaster how can people be so stupid. ---
**Author:** ![hammos1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ba8739/32.png) [@hammos1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hammos1)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2015, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/466 "2015-05-07T21:17:40Z")
If (and it’s a big if) this poll proves to be accurate, it looks like all that demonising of the SNP must have resonated with someone south of the border- perhaps with former UKIP voters? Rather depressing vindication of a very negative Tory campaign if true. Lib Dem projected seats very low; looks like some Con/ Lib Dem marginals are projected to go Con. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2015, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/467 "2015-05-07T21:21:20Z")
But what those idiots don’t realise is that more likely Scotland will leave under a Tory government if people vote yes in an EU referendum. ---
**Author:** ![mascaroni](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/dc4da7/32.png) [@mascaroni](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mascaroni)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2015, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/468 "2015-05-07T21:22:10Z")
Anyone know how 323 seats would be a working majority? I understand that Sinn Fein won’t take their seats and IIRC The Speaker of The House doesn’t vote, but that seems to leave 324 for a majority. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2015, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/469 "2015-05-07T21:23:34Z")
Excellent news for separatists. 58 out of 59 seats and an unconstrained Conservative Government for five years. Scotland completely disenfranchised. Neverendum definitely on. The only thing that could have avoided that was some space when the political tenor of Westminster suited Scotland. If this prediction is correct, I can see the Union splintering. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2015, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/470 "2015-05-07T21:24:16Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > I don’t understand this, how is Labour Polling 239! They’ve been saying for months the Tories and Labour would be polling close to each other. This is an awful disaster how can people be so stupid. > [@hammos1](#): > > If (and it’s a big if) this poll proves to be accurate, it looks like all that demonising of the SNP must have resonated with someone south of the border- perhaps with former UKIP voters? Rather depressing vindication of a very negative Tory campaign if true. > > Lib Dem projected seats very low; looks like some Con/ Lib Dem marginals are projected to go Con. I read elsewhere that something like 9 out of the last 12 elections generally underestimated the Conservative vote beforehand. _If_ this poll is correct then I assume a shy Tory vote was present. I also have no idea if this prediction takes into account the Tories needing excess votes over Labour to win the same number of seats. I assume because % votes have not been released this has been taken into account. We’ll just have to wait and see. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2015, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/471 "2015-05-07T21:24:37Z")
> [@mascaroni](#): > > Anyone know how 323 seats would be a working majority? I understand that Sinn Fein won’t take their seats and IIRC The Speaker of The House doesn’t vote, but that seems to leave 324 for a majority. The Speaker. ---
**Author:** ![SciFiSam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/47e85d/32.png) [@SciFiSam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SciFiSam)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2015, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/472 "2015-05-07T21:24:54Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > Well if that exit poll C4 have just shown is accurate I’ll be a happy chappy. And I will be very sad, and my life will be much, much worse pretty soon, because I’m disabled. Well done you. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2015, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/473 "2015-05-07T21:24:59Z")
There’s more than one exit poll out. YouGov exit poll - CON 284 MPs, LAB 263, LIBS 31, SNP 48, UKIP 2, PLAID 3, GREEN 1 ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2015, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/474 "2015-05-07T21:27:06Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > Excellent news for separatists. 58 out of 59 seats and an unconstrained Conservative Government for five years. Unconstrained? They look to get a large minority, not even a majority. Even if they continued the Coalition, their majority is considerably thinned. ---
**Author:** ![Busy\_Scissors](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/d78d45/32.png) [@Busy\_Scissors](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Busy_Scissors)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2015, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/475 "2015-05-07T21:28:32Z")
Well that’s a cauldron of shite. What’s a typical error in an exit poll? Hoping the BBC have pulled this one out of their collective ringpiece. ---
**Author:** ![mascaroni](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/dc4da7/32.png) [@mascaroni](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mascaroni)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2015, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/476 "2015-05-07T21:31:00Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > The Speaker. The Speaker plus two Sinn Fein leaves 647. Which means 324 for a majority. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2015, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/477 "2015-05-07T21:31:26Z")
> [@SciFiSam](#): > > And I will be very sad, and my life will be much, much worse pretty soon, because I’m disabled. Well done you. Well I’m off work long time sick, but I’d much prefer a slightly smaller slice of a larger pie, which is what’s on offer with the Tories. For me, it’s about what’s best for the country of a whole, not just for me - or you, for that matter - and the overall improvements that have been made in the last 5 years are what I’d like to continue. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2015, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/478 "2015-05-07T21:34:14Z")
> [@mascaroni](#): > > The Speaker plus two Sinn Fein leaves 647. Which means 324 for a majority. There’s five Sinn Fein currently. Also, the Speaker has three deputies who don’t take part in party politics, so 321? ---
**Author:** ![hammos1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ba8739/32.png) [@hammos1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hammos1)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2015, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/479 "2015-05-07T21:35:44Z")
> [@mascaroni](#): > > The Speaker plus two Sinn Fein leaves 647. Which means 324 for a majority. Sinn Fein had 5 MPs last time, and are projected to stay at that number. Hence 323 for a majority, though of course in reality a workable majority could be had with rather less than 323. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2015, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/480 "2015-05-07T21:39:56Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > Unconstrained? They look to get a large minority, not even a majority. Even if they continued the Coalition, their majority is considerably thinned. Possibly in coalition with the rightist homophobic DUP rather than the centrist pleasant LibDems. We should not forget how ameliorating the LibDems have been. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612.md?page=23) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612.md?page=25)