# UK General Election May 2015 (Population Share Version) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 2, 2015, 10:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612 "2015-04-02T10:29:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2015, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/101 "2015-04-14T15:27:49Z")
Oh, and gay marriage. The biggest social change for at least a generation, and achieved by a Tory government, at the vanguard of what is hopefully an international change. Hopefully that alone will be enough to put clear water between them and the bigots. ---
**Author:** ![PaulParkhead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7ea924/32.png) [@PaulParkhead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PaulParkhead)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2015, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/102 "2015-04-14T18:37:21Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > As someone who’s worked factory jobs or warehouse jobs all my life, and is currently on benefits whilst under the care of the NHS, I disagree entirely. I’m really not sure how easier access to benefits for those who actually need them, changes to ESA to help people get better, not rot away on benefits for the rest of their lives, increased protections for temporary workers and increased access to benefits for low hours workers, how any of that makes life worse for working or lower class people. All that is from my experience in the last 5 years, and the change when signing on last year was vast from even 4 years ago, and entirely for the better. Which benefits are easier to access? What specific changes to ESA “help people get better”? ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2015, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/103 "2015-04-14T18:47:24Z")
> [@PaulParkhead](#): > > Which benefits are easier to access? All of them, due to the continued streamlining of the system. Universal Credit has also begun to be rolled out, which will make claiming tax credits far simpler, as people won’t need to figure out what they need to apply for, one application will cover everything. > [@](#): > > What specific changes to ESA “help people get better”? The expansion of the work-focused group, increased help to get voluntary work, work experience, and part-time work through the Job Centre to focus on what people can do, not what they can’t. Getting back to work is inherently better than being out of work. Of course, they’re not focussed on giving people money for nothing, which is the focus of most of the complaints against it. I, personally, don’t want to stay on benefits for any longer than I have to, and am trying to take advantage of all that assistance. I’m not necessarily claiming that a Labour government would undo all of this, but it’s not a risk I consider necessary. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2015, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/104 "2015-04-14T19:42:09Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > Yes, the NHS needs fixing, but Labour’s approach of pouring billions into wage increases without bothering about performance will no doubt get them votes but won’t actually improve the service. The performance is exceptional. What is in complete crisis - and that is no exaggeration - is staff morale, well what’s left. I know a dozen or so NHS staff and they are all exhausted. One eye doctor I know took three months unpaid last summer because it was that or leave all together. Other staff cannot afford a sabbatical. They are in pieces. They only think preventing the system collapsing is the possibility of a Labour victory. To repeat, I don’t exaggerate, the Tories have no sense nor regard for the unsustainable human cost of what they ask people to do. > [@Steophan](#): > > Oh, and gay marriage. The biggest social change for at least a generation, and achieved by a Tory government, at the vanguard of what is hopefully an international change. Hopefully that alone will be enough to put clear water between them and the bigots. Tories achiveved gay marriage: It’s not quite parsing. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2015, 5:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/105 "2015-04-15T05:42:11Z")
With the publication of the manifestos I am struck by how little score we can put in them. Even in normal times they are advertising and wishes rather than a programme of government, but this time even the major parties have no real hope of implementing their plans without major revisions in Parliament. Because of the pig-headedness of the politicians we do not get any idea of what are real core policies and which are negotiable in the likely event of a minority vote for both parties. Perhaps it is time to concentrate on the broad brush approach alone- which general direction a party is likely to take, rather than assuming that any one party will have a mandate to implement its own policies. This is particularly apposite for Labour who show every likelihood of approaching coalition or minority government in the same manner that they did last time. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2015, 5:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/106 "2015-04-15T05:59:07Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > Yes, the NHS needs fixing, but Labour’s approach of pouring billions into wage increases without bothering about performance will no doubt get them votes but won’t actually improve the service. That is Tory propaganda. NHS wages were never greatly increased for non-medical staff and were increased for doctors to match the effective international going rate with which we are in active competition- younger doctors are quite willing to work abroad and are free to leave. The recent pay freeze for nurses (not in Scotland where the one percent has been maintained) is leading to nurse shortages almost everywhere and a medium term training crisis as so few start or complete training. Over my time in the health service I suspect that I was paid some 20% less a year than I would have been had I held a similar management post in industry. There was a trade off when I started between low pay and poor conditions against secure enjoyable employment, training and support; that is now dead and nursing is just another bit of industry paid at factory rates with factory quality. Nurses at lower than sister grade could not even think about being house owners until the wage crisis of the eighties occurred when the largest single home to nurses’ pay was forced on the Thatcher government to avoid that nursing crisis. We are in the same position now. A newly qualified nurse receives £21, 600 a year. We cannot recruit enough nurses with these conditions and pay, and those we do train tend to not enter practice, leave within the first couple of years, or emigrate. Apart from that we are massively overpaid and cossetted. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2015, 6:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/107 "2015-04-15T06:19:01Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > A newly qualified nurse receives £21, 600 a year. We cannot recruit enough nurses with these conditions and pay, and those we do train tend to not enter practice, leave within the first couple of years, or emigrate. Well, the NHS is basically stealing 1 in 4 of its new nursing staff from developing countries atm, where they have been trained and then leave for here. It’s really very, very uncomfortable. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2015, 6:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/108 "2015-04-15T06:52:48Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > Well, the NHS is basically stealing 1 in 4 of its new nursing staff from developing countries atm, where they have been trained and then leave for here. > > It’s really very, very uncomfortable. Agreed. We have always done so but never to this extent. It is a symbiotic relationship though as many nurses remit much of their salaries to their home country to support their families. Many of our nurses simply emigrate to Aus, NZ or the USA where wages and conditions are better- I almost did so in my forties, but stayed the course. So long as pay is severely limited in the UK we will continue to have a massive shortfall of trained nurses. ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2015, 8:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/109 "2015-04-15T08:44:56Z")
[IFS: we have absolutely no idea how the Tories will achieve their deficit target](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5nyOoz35is). ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2015, 9:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/110 "2015-04-15T09:02:09Z")
Just caught up with Gove being interviewed on Newsnight by Emily Maitlis: he didn’t seem to have much idea either. Didn’t dispute £18bn of spending promises; affirmed £30bn of cuts. Couldn’t begin to say where it would come from. Except it definitely won’t come from pensions. He did say that you could tell what a Conservative government would be like by looking at what they’ve done before. I’m not sure that’s the clincher he thinks it is. ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2015, 9:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/111 "2015-04-15T09:14:41Z")
[Osborne point blank refused](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VbZ_khbkFs) to answer the question on where the extra promised funds for the NHS will come from on Andrew Marr last weekend, too. Incidentally, he seems to construct all of his sentences out of hashtags. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2015, 9:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/112 "2015-04-15T09:28:20Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > A newly qualified nurse receives £21, 600 a year. You do realise that that is a considerable starting salary, don’t you? And nurses overall earn [only slightly less](http://www.payscale.com/research/UK/Job=Registered_Nurse_%28RN%29/Salary) than the [average national wage](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20442666). ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2015, 9:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/113 "2015-04-15T09:31:47Z")
The question of their wage relative to average wages isn’t relevant. The only relevant question is: would I do their job and put up with the amount of shit they put up with for that wage? And the answer is no. And, from emigration and drop-out rates, it seems many nurses agree. Pay should be set to retain staff, not to reflect the average wage. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2015, 9:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/114 "2015-04-15T09:38:11Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > Agreed. We have always done so but never to this extent. It is a symbiotic relationship though as many nurses remit much of their salaries to their home country to support their families. > > Many of our nurses simply emigrate to Aus, NZ or the USA where wages and conditions are better- I almost did so in my forties, but stayed the course. So long as pay is severely limited in the UK we will continue to have a massive shortfall of trained nurses. Increasing pay is fine as long as it’s tied to performance, not seniority. Give people the chance to _earn_ a high wage if they can show they deserve it. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2015, 9:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/115 "2015-04-15T09:45:00Z")
There’s a good piece here on [spending and productivity in the NHS](https://flipchartfairytales.wordpress.com/2015/04/08/nhs-the-elephant-in-the-public-spending-room/). I can’t reproduce the graphs here, but some highlights: The NHS made productivity gains in the first two years of the coalition, but these are now being reversed (-c.95% productivity in last two years). > [@](#): > > This isn’t really surprising. In an organisation that has had regular budget increases for years, it is relatively easy to spot some quick efficiency savings. The NHS, whose workers thrive on dealing with emergencies, proved to be good at finding emergency cost savings. > > The difficult part of any attempt to improve productivity is sustaining the momentum in the second and third year, once the quick wins have all been spotted. In many organisations, public and private, the energy and enthusiasm starts to run out. > > At the same time, the health service had to deal with a reorganisation which was massive even by previous NHS standards. It will be some time before the full cost of the Lansley reforms is assessed but restructures always divert attention away from the day-to-day. When jobs are under threat and new ones are up for grabs, people focus on positioning themselves and securing their future. That’s the same in any organisation. An earlier King’s Fund report remarked that the first part of the last parliament was taken up with understanding and implementing the reforms while the second part was taken up with limiting their damage. > > As if that wasn’t enough, the NHS found itself facing rising staff costs. Was that because it breached its pay freeze? No such luck, might be the response of some NHS staff. In fact, although permanent staffing levels increased slightly, the amount spent on permanent staff fell in the year to March 2014. **The rise in costs is accounted for by the extra £1 billion spent on temporary staff.** A commenter goes in to greater detail on this: > [@](#): > > When the coalition government promoted the idea of hospitals becoming foundation trusts, they also specified that they had to balance their books to gain foundation trust status. One way in which hospitals were able to achieve this was to reduce the numbers of directly employed nurses and to instead employ agency nursing and others staffs. > In the short-term, this made it possible to balance their books but it also meant that fewer nurses from the training hospitals and universities were apparently required so the training institutions reduced the numbers of trainee nurse places on their courses, with the result that fewer trained nurses were available to replace those retiring or opting to work full-time as agency nurses. > This meant that hospitals then had to recruit new nurses from overseas – from Europe and other parts of the world. It also meant that they were forced to employ more agency nurses and other staff through private agencies, which led to the ballooning in staffing costs you have identified. ---
**Author:** ![Claverhouse](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/13edae/32.png) [@Claverhouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Claverhouse)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2015, 9:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/116 "2015-04-15T09:53:04Z")
[QUOTE=Steophan] Increasing pay is fine as long as it’s tied to performance, not seniority. Give people the chance to earn a high wage if they can show they deserve it. [/quote] Today’s target: 150 bedpans per nurse ! You can do it ! ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2015, 10:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/117 "2015-04-15T10:24:13Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > There’s a good piece here on [spending and productivity in the NHS](https://flipchartfairytales.wordpress.com/2015/04/08/nhs-the-elephant-in-the-public-spending-room/). > > I can’t reproduce the graphs here, but some highlights: > > The NHS made productivity gains in the first two years of the coalition, but these are now being reversed (-c.95% productivity in last two years). > > A commenter goes in to greater detail on this: These productivity problems are the same almost everywhere. The first few cuts are relatively easy, further savings are harder to come by. Though I do have doubts as to productivity figures in the NHS; they are notoriously difficult to measure. The hiring of foreign nurses is a long and [ig]noble tradition of the NHS. Over a deade ago the NHS was accused of “stealing” African human resources by targetting cheap African nurses to work in the NHS. THis was a time when money was being poured into the NHS. I doubt the situation regarding foreign nurses has become too much worse in the time being. It’s basically the same recycled headline from the early 2000’s. edit: From 2005: [http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4349545.stm](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4349545.stm) ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2015, 10:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/118 "2015-04-15T10:43:20Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > These productivity problems are the same almost everywhere. The first few cuts are relatively easy, further savings are harder to come by. This is something I’d love to see Osborne, Cameron et al challenged on. The best metaphor I’ve read is that it’s like giving blood: the first pint is easy and a healthy adult will hardly notice. But if you extrapolate from that first pint that it’s just as easy and innocuous to give a second, and third, and a fourth, then you’ll quickly find yourself undergoing major organ failure. There’s a point where you can’t cut and still do the basic job. But the Tories - and to a lesser extent Labour - continually act is if the “quick win efficiencies” of austerity Mk1 can be re-enacted indefinitely without any change in consequences. (In actual fact I think that a lot of cuts go beyond quick win efficiencies - e.g. legal aid, but even on its own terms the argument is dodgy) ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2015, 12:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/119 "2015-04-15T12:26:12Z")
The NHS is down to 9.1% of GDP - that’s during a period of the economy contracting. In some ways that’s the absolute beauty of the NHS, funding is hugely flexible - sometimes you invest, other times waiting times lengthen and huge pressures build. But 9.1 while serving 100% of the population is remarkable by literally any world standard. Keep looking for efficiencies by all means but to suggest the 'NHS ‘inefficient’ is plain ignorant. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2015, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612/120 "2015-04-15T13:20:37Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > Keep looking for efficiencies by all means but to suggest the 'NHS ‘inefficient’ is plain ignorant. The NHS is a huge organisation. Like any such, there are bound to be bad bits. What I hear of is not inefficiency but bad management. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-general-election-may-2015-population-share-version/716612.md?page=7)