# UK Snap Election: 8 June 2017

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [April 18, 2017, 10:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690 "2017-04-18T10:08:43Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 17

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**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\
**Post date:** [May 11, 2017, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/323 "2017-05-11T23:11:16Z")

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> [@phaemon](#):
>
> Since the SNP actually increased their share of the vote, and their number of councillors in these local elections, I would put the chances of both Salmond _and_ Robertson losing their seats as somewhere between inconceivable and completely delusional.

You might find the graphic in [this post](https://www.arrse.co.uk/community/threads/scottish-politics-thread.226368/page-2735#post-7888447) on Arrse of interest. (Note: the link itself is SFW but many parts of Arrse contain salty language or NSFW posts.)

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**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\
**Post date:** [May 12, 2017, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/324 "2017-05-12T00:37:55Z")

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> [@Quartz](#):
>
> You might find the graphic in [this post](https://www.arrse.co.uk/community/threads/scottish-politics-thread.226368/page-2735#post-7888447) on Arrse of interest. (Note: the link itself is SFW but many parts of Arrse contain salty language or NSFW posts.)

That graphic is from the Financial Times, specifically from this article

> **[The surprising surge of Scotland’s Tories](https://www.ft.com/content/e86a4bae-34db-11e7-bce4-9023f8c0fd2e)**
>
> Election analyst Matt Singh translates local election results into Westminster seats

(may require registration, but it’s not behind the actual paywall)

if anyone prefers a better source than Arrse (the preferred online forum for people who like to slightly overstate how much they’ve been involved with the British armed forces).

The raw graphic doesn’t really say much about an election that works on FPTP principles, as opposed to the first-preference transferable votes in the election that it records.

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**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\
**Post date:** [May 12, 2017, 7:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/325 "2017-05-12T07:26:15Z")

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The fight back continues. I recommend spending 3 minutes with this woman as she hands Sky News it’s arse on a platter:

[![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/wUFhlejY08Q/maxresdefault.jpg "Sarah Champion Labour MP, Shadow Women rights and Equality Minister educating SkyNews") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUFhlejY08Q)

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**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\
**Post date:** [May 12, 2017, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/326 "2017-05-12T08:30:28Z")

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> [@Baron\_Greenback](#):
>
> The raw graphic doesn’t really say much about an election that works on FPTP principles, as opposed to the first-preference transferable votes in the election that it records.

Thanks for the FT link. Actually, FPTP is the same as using first-preference.

Edit: that article appears to be thoroughly paywalled.

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**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\
**Post date:** [May 12, 2017, 8:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/327 "2017-05-12T08:33:35Z")

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[quote=“up\_the\_junction, post:325, topic:784690”]

The fight back continues. I recommend spending 3 minutes with this woman as she hands Sky News it’s arse on a platter:

[/QUOTE]

I listened to the first minute of that and it was waffle on both sides.

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**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\
**Post date:** [May 12, 2017, 9:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/328 "2017-05-12T09:03:49Z")

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> [@Quartz](#):
>
> Thanks for the FT link. Actually, FPTP is the same as using first-preference.

Not so. You can’t assume that people voting under a FPTP system will give their vote to the candidate/party who won their first preference vote in a poll conducted under the STV system.

Under FPTP, if my genuine first preference is for a minority party which has no prospect of winning the one seat available, I may choose not to express that preference and instead vote for the candidate that I judge to have the best chance of beating the one I definitely _don’t_ want to win. Under STV, I’m not forced to make that choice.

Consequently, the first-preference votes cast for the parties competing in an STV election don’t map 1-to-1 onto the first preference votes cast for the same parties competing in an FPTP election.

As, I suspect, we’ll see in Scotland and Northern Ireland in a month’s time.

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**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\
**Post date:** [May 12, 2017, 9:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/329 "2017-05-12T09:26:02Z")

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> [@Quartz](#):
>
> Edit: that article appears to be thoroughly paywalled.

I can see it, and I just have a non-paying registered account with them. 😕

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**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\
**Post date:** [May 12, 2017, 9:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/330 "2017-05-12T09:51:33Z")

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> [@UDS](#):
>
> Not so. You can’t assume that people voting under a FPTP system will give their vote to the candidate/party who won their first preference vote in a poll conducted under the STV system.

I agree, but if you just use the first preference from the STV, then you get the same result as FPTP.

And [here’s](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/12/scottish-labour-stands-by-tax-rise-policy-for-middle-earners) Kezia Dugdale putting her foot firmly in it.

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**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\
**Post date:** [May 12, 2017, 9:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/331 "2017-05-12T09:56:55Z")

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> [@Baron\_Greenback](#):
>
> I can see it, and I just have a non-paying registered account with them. 😕

The FT can be weird. Free registration gets you (I think) 7 articles a month, but it sometimes seems to lose count.  
On the manifesto, Torsten Bell of the resolution foundation makes a really good point on Twitter [here](https://twitter.com/TorstenBell/status/862953776537374720). Currently, planned Tory benefit cuts are going to hit the poorest 50% really hard. But for all the spending plans in the manifesto, the best that Labour can promise is that they’ll review these. They are planning minimum wage increase, but people already on £10/hour are going to be hit by in-work benefit cuts and it doesn’t seem to be on the radar in a big way.

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**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\
**Post date:** [May 12, 2017, 10:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/332 "2017-05-12T10:30:12Z")

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TIP: A looong time ago I downloaded a ‘cookie manager’. When I run out of monthly allowance I open the cookie manager and clear all cookies from the site now blocking. BOOM - problem solved.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\
**Post date:** [May 12, 2017, 11:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/333 "2017-05-12T11:13:51Z")

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> [@Quartz](#):
>
> I agree, but if you just use the first preference from the STV, then you get the same result as FPTP.
> 
> And [here’s](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/12/scottish-labour-stands-by-tax-rise-policy-for-middle-earners) Kezia Dugdale putting her foot firmly in it.

See, this seems to me like the kind of grown-up politics we need more of. Too often we get one of the following:

“We’ll give you the services, and get those rich bastards to pay for it.”  
“We’ll keep your taxes low, and it’s those scrounging bastards who’ll lose their services.”

Actually coming out and saying instead that: “If we want the services, we’ll all have to pay for them” is evidently bad electoral politics but it’s also a step towards dealing with uncomfortable reality.

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**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\
**Post date:** [May 12, 2017, 11:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/334 "2017-05-12T11:16:14Z")

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> [@Baron\_Greenback](#):
>
> That graphic is from the Financial Times, specifically from this article
> 
> [The surprising surge of Scotland’s Tories](https://www.ft.com/content/e86a4bae-34db-11e7-bce4-9023f8c0fd2e)

Heh. I tried again and it went straight in this time

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**Author:** ![phaemon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/977dab/32.png) [@phaemon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/phaemon)\
**Post date:** [May 12, 2017, 11:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/335 "2017-05-12T11:27:43Z")

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> [@Quartz](#):
>
> You might find the graphic in [this post](https://www.arrse.co.uk/community/threads/scottish-politics-thread.226368/page-2735#post-7888447) on Arrse of interest.

I did! If anyone who knew anything about Scotland had produced that map, their first response would have been, “well that clearly doesn’t work.”

I’m not sure why you think it means anything at all since you know about Scottish politics. You really think Na h-Eileanan an Iar isn’t going to vote SNP this time? Or that Orkney & Shetland isn’t a straight fight between LibDem and SNP?

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**Author:** ![phaemon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/977dab/32.png) [@phaemon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/phaemon)\
**Post date:** [May 12, 2017, 11:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/336 "2017-05-12T11:54:23Z")

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Oh, I just realised that the Tory candidate for Moray (standing against Angus Robertson) is Douglas Ross!

For those who don’t know, he’s currently a councillor and an MSP _and_ a football Assistant Referee! His claim to fame is missing a key vote where the SNP would have been defeated, due to being off at referee training in Switzerland.

He gets paid £40k for his refereeing duties and has missed votes and commitee meetings due to clashes: most recently last year for the Sporting Lisbon and Real Madrid match.

> **[Tory MSP blows off parliament vote to take part in World Cup referee training](https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/tory-msp-blows-key-parliament-8901030)**
>
> DOUGLAS Ross, who expects to earn up to £40,000 from his footballing job, went on an SFA trip abroad instead of taking part in a vote on SNP local taxation policy.

> **[Whistle blown on MSP Douglas Ross's refereeing clash](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-38078341)**
>
> A leading Scottish Conservative MSP missed a parliamentary committee to referee a Champions League match in Portugal.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\
**Post date:** [May 12, 2017, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/337 "2017-05-12T13:05:11Z")

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> [@phaemon](#):
>
> I’m not sure why you think it means anything at all since you know about Scottish politics. You really think Na h-Eileanan an Iar isn’t going to vote SNP this time? Or that Orkney & Shetland isn’t a straight fight between LibDem and SNP?

I’m willing to read and listen to other people’s opinions. Aren’t you?

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![phaemon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/977dab/32.png) [@phaemon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/phaemon)\
**Post date:** [May 12, 2017, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/338 "2017-05-12T13:11:30Z")

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> [@Quartz](#):
>
> I’m willing to read and listen to other people’s opinions. Aren’t you?

I not only read and listened to it, I actually went a step further and investigated it. Aren’t you willing to make the extra effort?

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\
**Post date:** [May 12, 2017, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/339 "2017-05-12T13:14:43Z")

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> [@phaemon](#):
>
> I not only read and listened to it, I actually went a step further and investigated it. Aren’t you willing to make the extra effort?

If I deem it worthwhile. If I find it possible. As I said, that link was blocked.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![phaemon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/977dab/32.png) [@phaemon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/phaemon)\
**Post date:** [May 12, 2017, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/340 "2017-05-12T13:24:32Z")

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> [@Quartz](#):
>
> If I deem it worthwhile. If I find it possible. As I said, that link was blocked.

Erm…I have only referred to the link that _you_ posted.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\
**Post date:** [May 12, 2017, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/341 "2017-05-12T13:56:07Z")

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> [@phaemon](#):
>
> Erm…I have only referred to the link that _you_ posted.

Exactly. It comes from a FT article which was blocked for me and which I am still digesting - the comments are also interesting. I’ve saved it to a PDF in case it gets blocked again.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![phaemon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/977dab/32.png) [@phaemon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/phaemon)\
**Post date:** [May 12, 2017, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/342 "2017-05-12T16:30:21Z")

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You may be interested in Ruth Davidson’s interview on Radio 5 Live:

> **[Ruth Davidson car crash interview radio five live](https://ayerightradio.wordpress.com/2017/05/12/ruth-davidson-car-crash-interview-radio-five-live/)**
>
> Emma Barnett of radio five live interviews the nearly as popular as Margaret Thatcher, Ruth Davidson into several corners created by Tory policy.

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