# UK Snap Election: 8 June 2017 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 18, 2017, 10:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690 "2017-04-18T10:08:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2017, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/61 "2017-04-19T12:46:55Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > I don’t agree that watering down the Brexit plan would be unpopular, if it were presented right (a big if). Not unpopular to everyone, and not unpopular to me but unpopular enough to a sizeable chunk of labour voters to make it a tricky sell without losing votes. And you are bang-on about the presentation. Labour’s message is muddled and incoherent. > [@](#): > > May has been watering down her own Brexit plan quite a bit recently (e.g. we’re now going to have both continued freedom of movement and a role for the ECJ post 2020, and we’re looking at all kinds of special visas to keep a permanent flow of high immigration, and no-one seems to mind particularly). And I think every reasonable persons knows that such horse-trading will be the way of these negotiations, May’s starting position is at least clear and we all know (as she does) that there will be compromises on the way. > [@](#): > > And far from frustrating the government at every turn, Labour have made the process ludicrously easy. Three-line whips to vote for the central government bill are not particularly frustrating to the government. To be clear, I’m not saying that the Labour party can or would frustrate the government very much in reality (as you say, they haven’t so far) just that if they try to build a platform on doing just that in the future I’m not too sure they are able to formulate it well enough or sell it to enough voters. > [@](#): > > If Labour had an actual position on Brexit which it could articulate clearly and present as “ensuring we get the best deal for British workers” they could do alright. It’s problem is that it literally doesn’t know what it thinks. Agreed, but it’ll take a better class of front bench than they currently have to make that case. The true stand of opposition is clearly from the Lib-Dems, I have a feeling that Labour will leak remain voters to them and that UKIP will hemorrhage pro-brexit voters to the Tories. I still don’t see an attractive Labour proposition that wins them the shedload of votes they need. > [@](#): > > I also don’t agree - which puts me in a minority, I think - that having a bolshy opposition makes it easier for the EU to offer a poor deal. Having a parliament to push a deal through lets May say “Sorry, you’ll have to do better because that won’t wash at home.” The US, for example, are past masters at this approach. Conversely, when the Tories have a c.80 seat majority with a Brexit mandate, the EU will know that any deal they offer will be taken up enthusiastically, so where’s the incentive to offer easier terms? That’s a valid position certainly, not without merit but I’d balance that against the E.U. throwing bones to potential rebels within and without a small-majority Tory government in the hope of sowing discord, rebellion and extracting greater concessions. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2017, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/62 "2017-04-19T13:13:07Z")
> [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > …Theresa May is, when compared to Corbyn, a strong leader with clear ideas, clearly expressed. Even those who aren’t Tory voters say that. Incumbent fatigue comes into it when a party has been ploughing the same furrow for years but the clock has somewhat been reset by brexit and the switch to May. It is enough of a change for this to feel like a new administration… FWIW, on this side of the pond that’s certainly my impression. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2017, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/63 "2017-04-19T13:34:15Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > The Tories have been in power 7 years. I cannot think of any recent party in power which gained seats (despite winning an election) which increased its majority on an election held 7 years after being in power. How recent is recent? In Australia the Howard Government (LIB/NAT) was first elected in 2 March 1996 in a landslide winning 94 seats. They won a 2nd term 3 October 1998 with a reduced margin holding 80 seats. Howard won a 3rd term in 2001 increasing his margin and winning 82 seats. Then in 9 October 2004 Howard won his 4th term increasing his margin again to hold 86 seats. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2017, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/64 "2017-04-19T14:46:27Z")
I think the entire game for this election is tactical voting; to do what you can to create a credible opposition. It may well mean Labour voters supporting the Lib Dems in the SW and vice versa elsewhere. Tim Fallon has basically won the lottery. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2017, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/65 "2017-04-19T15:11:54Z")
Here’s the NYT on May’s announcement, with some political analysis: [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/world/europe/uk-theresa-may-general-election.html?emc=eta1&\_r=0](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/world/europe/uk-theresa-may-general-election.html?emc=eta1&_r=0) The House of Commons, as expected, has now approved a snap election: [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/19/world/europe/uk-general-election.html?ribbon-ad-idx=3&rref=world/europe&module=Ribbon&version=context®ion=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Europe&pgtype=article](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/19/world/europe/uk-general-election.html?ribbon-ad-idx=3&rref=world/europe&module=Ribbon&version=context®ion=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Europe&pgtype=article) ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2017, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/66 "2017-04-19T15:46:55Z")
> [@PatrickLondon](#): > > it’s too quick for their moneybags Banks to get his new UKIP-alternate venture off the ground. Great quote in this morning’s Guardian from Banks’s spokesman. It seems the great man is planning to stand in Clacton (currently held by Douglas Carswell, who left the Tories for UKIP and just recently left them too to be an independent): _“Whether Banks stands as an independent, Patriotic Alliance or UKIP, these things are all up for discussion,” said Andy Wigmore, Banks’s spokesman. “We were due to launch it on 5 May, but events supersede everything. We will just concentrate on the Clacton swamp. Make Clacton great again.”_ Ambition will out. Even in Clacton… ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2017, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/67 "2017-04-19T15:48:56Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > I think the entire game for this election is tactical voting; to do what you can to create a credible opposition. > > It may well mean Labour voters supporting the Lib Dems in the SW and vice versa elsewhere. > > Tim Fallon has basically won the lottery. There’s also the question about Tory Remainers and whether they’ll feel that, as May will definitely win overall, it might be worth leavening her majority with a few Lib-Dems. There were quite a few areas in the South-East and along the M40 corridor which went Tory in 2015/Remain in 2016 that will be interesting to watch (although I think it would take a huge surge to overcome Tory majorities there.) ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2017, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/68 "2017-04-19T16:11:40Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > There’s also the question about Tory Remainers and whether they’ll feel that, as May will definitely win overall, it might be worth leavening her majority with a few Lib-Dems. May isn’t going to have a large majority unless both Labour’s and the SNP’s votes completely collapse. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2017, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/69 "2017-04-19T16:26:30Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > May isn’t going to have a large majority unless both Labour’s and the SNP’s votes completely collapse. Yes. May is doing this so she can get a big majority aka “unity in Westminster”. Labour’s vote has completely collapsed. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2017, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/70 "2017-04-19T16:54:20Z")
> [@Princhester](#): > > Nah, she’s way too enthusiastic about Brexit for it to be merely a matter of following through. She likes it because it’s a strong wedge issue for the left. > > The Conservative base aren’t going to change their vote even if they don’t like Brexit. > > But heaps of non-conservative voters are also working and lower middle class who are pro-Brexit due to xenophobia, and feel strongly enough about it for it to influence their vote. > > May herself and many conservatives would probably be completely happy with some form of soft Brexit approach, but she’s hell bent on the toughest hardline Brexit she can dream up. Why? Because when you are wedging you want to take the most extreme position possible, so that your opponents can’t follow you, and consequently get wedged. This Yank endorses this analysis. I’m reminded of how first Reagan and later Bush II and finally Trump managed to get a large segment of the working class on-side with the Business Conservative enterprise. Having poached those voters, the US right has held them well, while forcing the US left to tack into the wilderness in search of replacement voters. This realignment may last for decades yet. IMO May’s stealing that playbook and so far playing it adroitly. The Brexit vote is a godsend in that regard: a nice shiny wedge issue for the Left placed front and center where she can use it without being blamed for having put it there. Well played Theresa. Your move Jeremy. IMO the big wildcard here is the LDs, the SNP, and the various splinter groups. Had UKIP not already mostly imploded May’s calculus would be far more difficult. As it is, Labor’s likely to be pretty thoroughly carved up; what’s unclear to me is who collects the lion’s share of the spoils. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2017, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/71 "2017-04-19T19:39:32Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > Yes. > > May is doing this so she can get a big majority aka “unity in Westminster”. > > Labour’s vote has completely collapsed. And what of pro-EU Tories? ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2017, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/72 "2017-04-19T22:32:37Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > And what of pro-EU Tories? Kenneth Clarke, for one, is standing. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2017, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/73 "2017-04-19T22:33:25Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > And what of pro-EU Tories? Didn’t they all vote for Brexit? ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2017, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/74 "2017-04-20T00:24:59Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > Didn’t they all vote for Brexit? They did, with the exception of Ken Clarke, because they were all elected on a manifesto commitment to “respect” the result of the referendum. But that’s not to say that they can’t make trouble for the Prime Minister, or use their influence within the party to press for a softer Brexit than might otherwise happen. Remember, May fought all the way to the Supreme Court in an (unsuccessful) attempt to avoid having to involve Parliament in the Brexit process. It wasn’t the prospect of opposition from opposition MPs that worried her enough to make her do that. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2017, 9:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/75 "2017-04-20T09:33:52Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > And what of pro-EU Tories? Pro-EU Tory voters, of whom there are a fair chunk in SE England, will either vote Tory if their MP is pro-EU or vote Lib Dem. That will be good for the Lib Dems, but I don’t think it’ll get them more than 10-15 extra seats. If you compare the Tory Remain areas on the map [here](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36616028)with the Lib-Dem vote share in the map [here](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32624405), you’ll see that the Lib Dems have a massive hill to climb. Especially when you consider that a lot of the UKIP vote in the same areas may well switch to Tories, because the Tories are offering what UKIP want. By the same token, wherever Labour is under threat from Tories in Leave areas, it can expect the Tories to get a boost from 2015 UKIP voters who now back the Tories to deliver Brexit. This Buzzfeed [analysis](https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamesball/heres-why-the-general-election-will-actually-be-really?utm_term=.iy4jLgxPk#.yjnEpKqxa)shows just how many such seats Labour has to defend (and is generally quite useful at laying out the state of play). ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2017, 10:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/76 "2017-04-20T10:35:23Z")
So, who else will be staying up on June 8th / 9th to watch the results come in? ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Dead\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Cat)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2017, 10:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/77 "2017-04-20T10:45:34Z")
I’d be more tempted to vote Lib Dem if they had a decent leader. Whether it’s because I can’t get past his religious views I don’t know, but I don’t like what I’ve seen of Tim Farron. I realised I made an error in my earlier post - in the 2010 GE I lived in a marginal LD constituency, and as such voted for the incumbent, partly because the Tories/UKIP couldn’t even be bothered to find a local candidate (I vaguely recall UKIP not having one at all, and the Tories listing someone on the ballot with a London address - I find few things more offputting than that), partly as a vote against Labour, but mainly because I liked the man himself and felt he was doing a good job. It helped that many of our views were aligned on local and national issues, of course. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2017, 10:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/78 "2017-04-20T10:55:53Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > So, who else will be staying up on June 8th / 9th to watch the results come in? Yeah, I’ve got the Friday booked as a holiday. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2017, 11:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/79 "2017-04-20T11:08:07Z")
I’m going to see if I can help with the count. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2017, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/80 "2017-04-20T12:31:47Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > I’m going to see if I can help with the count. I’ve done the polling station a couple of times. It’s a loooong day. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690.md?page=5)