# UK Snap Election: 8 June 2017 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 18, 2017, 10:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690 "2017-04-18T10:08:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 63
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2017, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/1243 "2017-06-13T22:59:27Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > Rumours that Theresa May is reluctant to call a new election for fear of losing her seat in Maidenhead to Lord Buckethead are said to be _exaggerated_. That’s awesome! Are there any tweets or news stories about that, or is it yours? ---
**Author:** ![Mikeisskeptical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c0e974/32.png) [@Mikeisskeptical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mikeisskeptical)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2017, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/1244 "2017-06-13T23:06:29Z")
That’s not a classist thing BTW. I’ve never been, or tried to present myself as, anything other than working class. I still live on the council estate I grew up on. None of my friends or family would be seen dead reading that arse-rag. ---
**Author:** ![Mikeisskeptical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c0e974/32.png) [@Mikeisskeptical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mikeisskeptical)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2017, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/1245 "2017-06-13T23:09:07Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > That’s awesome! Are there any tweets or news stories about that, or is it yours? Surely it was a joke. Right? ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2017, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/1246 "2017-06-14T02:14:26Z")
> [@Mikeisskeptical](#): > > I’m surprised it’s as high as that. The Sun has a reading age of 8. That is, you would need the reading skills expected of an 8 year old to understand an average article… Obligatory _Yes, Prime Minister_ scene: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGscoaUWW2M](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGscoaUWW2M) ---
**Author:** ![Mikeisskeptical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c0e974/32.png) [@Mikeisskeptical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mikeisskeptical)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2017, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/1247 "2017-06-14T03:23:18Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Obligatory _Yes, Prime Minister_ scene: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGscoaUWW2M](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGscoaUWW2M) Haha. I would have been four when that ended and it’s still pretty much on the money. Nothing changes. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2017, 8:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/1248 "2017-06-14T08:31:42Z")
Point made elsewhere on the YouGov data; every single employment/working category favoured Labour, only pensioners favoured Conservative. > [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > That’s awesome! Are there any tweets or news stories about that, or is it yours? > [@Mikeisskeptical](#): > > Surely it was a joke. It was, though the way things are going … ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2017, 8:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/1249 "2017-06-14T08:50:46Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > Point made elsewhere on the YouGov data; every single employment/working category favoured Labour, only pensioners favoured Conservative. Kind of stunning, how narrow their current voter base is, and how it still led to a plurality of seats. This is where the turnout question matters. [This analysis](http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/who-swung-ge2017/?utm_content=buffer092e1&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer) (again, of constituency characteristics rather than actual voters) suggests that turnout among older voters fell, and that when they did vote, the vote split pretty evenly Labour/Tory. (God, I wish we could post graphs here). If that’s the case then the risk for Labour in the next election is that the Tories put up a better leader and a better manifesto (they can hardly do worse) and older Tories who sat out this time respond by coming back to the polls. The potential for Labour is that they can move those older voters from “disenchanted with the Tories” to “grudgingly open to Labour” and start narrowing the Tory lead with this group. But the Tory party has had a short sharp shock, and will be absolutely mindful of winning back older voters next time round, so Labour will have to work hard to counteract that. What I’d really love to see is an analysis of marginals. My impression is that the Tories are now hold more marginals than Labour - otherwise they’d have lost, I guess - which means they have to defend hard in any next election, whereas Labour, with fewer marginals to hold, will be better placed to attack. How those marginals interact with the demographics of age/education-level/home ownership will be fascinating. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2017, 9:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/1250 "2017-06-14T09:00:05Z")
My impression of - targetted - marginals is that Momentum absolutely nailed them - Corbynistas in drove were highly motivated and committed; its obv. not just your numbers, it’s the frequency with which they are out canvassing. Momentum were running a parallel campaign to themain Labour party - and were also responsible for much of the hugely successful social media content. I do know Momentum basically encamped in Battersea for 5 weeks. I suspect Kensington and Chelsea was slightly different (a) hardly anyone expected it (b) a huge Remain/metro combo, plus a local Labour councillor. Not really sure, though. Canterbury was clearly an expecionally organised local campaign to get out the student vote. Labour will takes this organisation national. Don’t know about Stroud, Ipswich, etc. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2017, 11:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/1251 "2017-06-14T11:06:19Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > What I’d really love to see is an analysis of marginals. My impression is that the Tories are now hold more marginals than Labour - otherwise they’d have lost, I guess - which means they have to defend hard in any next election, whereas Labour, with fewer marginals to hold, will be better placed to attack. How those marginals interact with the demographics of age/education-level/home ownership will be fascinating. [This isn’t a comprehensive analysis](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/11/labour-can-win-majority-if-it-pushes-for-new-general-election-within-two-years), but goes some way towards what you’re looking for. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2017, 11:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/1252 "2017-06-14T11:24:41Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Not to be a socialist at 20, is proof of want of a heart. > To still be one at 30, is proof of want of a head. > (Clemeanseau) Earliest known source is actually a French jurist, Anselme Polycarpe Batbie, according to [Quote Investigator] ([Quote Origin: If You Are Not a Liberal at 25, You Have No Heart. If You Are Not a Conservative at 35 You Have No Brain – Quote Investigator®](http://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/02/24/heart-head/)). ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2017, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/1253 "2017-06-14T13:39:41Z")
> [@PatrickLondon](#): > > [This isn’t a comprehensive analysis](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/11/labour-can-win-majority-if-it-pushes-for-new-general-election-within-two-years), but goes some way towards what you’re looking for. Thanks! The question really does seem to be how long the Tories can resist a general election by keeping some semi-plausible form of government going with the DUP. The longer they can spin it out, and the more time they have to think hard about the next manifesto and who the next leader should be, the better for them. Conversely, if Labour can find wedge issues to drive the Tories and DUP apart, they could stand to do well. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2017, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/1254 "2017-06-14T14:17:17Z")
All of a sudden The Guardian are experts. Can’t thank them enough for their 14-day rolling poll tracker. And their very late endorsement of Labour. Idiots. ---
**Author:** ![blindboyard](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blindboyard/32/2833_2.png) [@blindboyard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blindboyard)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2017, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/1255 "2017-06-14T18:48:37Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Its often forgotten how much he supported progressive causes as a young politician. He was for Home Rule in Ireland (unlike his father who opposed it bitterly), opposed large Naval estimates, was one of the Principal Architects of the “people’s budget”. He also supported enfranchisement of women; his well-known opposition to suffragettes came since like many Liberal leaders he feared that giving the vote to Mrs Pankhurst and her ilk meant that they would increase middle class (i.e Tory) voters, since contrary to popular belief suffragettes generally represented the monied elite. Plus they seem to have a penchant for physically attacking him. Incidentally, the Liberals haven’t formed a government since women received the vote. The National Liberals formed a minority in a few of the National governments, most notably Lloyd George being PM from 1915 to 1923, and the Liberals also took part in coalitions from 1924-25 and the LibDems in 2010-15. Female voters skewed Tory until 1997. ---
**Author:** ![Evan\_Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/b487fb/32.png) [@Evan\_Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evan_Drake)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2017, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/1256 "2017-06-14T21:35:04Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > It’s a fair point. > > **Evan Drake** , apologies fr being a tad flip Sure. Still what working-class people I meet are generally of the Randian anti-welfare state ilk ( _Spongers ! Parasites !_ ) enough to gladden the heart of any GOP congressthing; so it would be odd to suppose the thing came from their demands rather than from, in Britain, the Webbs and Beveridges of this wicked world. > [@AK84](#): > > Only reason he started as a Tory was since Dad was a big Tory. > > Its often forgotten how much he supported progressive causes as a young politician. He was for Home Rule in Ireland (unlike his father who opposed it bitterly), opposed large Naval estimates, was one of the Principal Architects of the “people’s budget”. He also supported enfranchisement of women; his well-known opposition to suffragettes came since like many Liberal leaders he feared that giving the vote to Mrs Pankhurst and her ilk meant that they would increase middle class (i.e Tory) voters, since contrary to popular belief suffragettes generally represented the monied elite. Plus they seem to have a penchant for physically attacking him. > The Edwardian politician would have been horrified in many ways by the man of the 1940’s. Dad was also a progressive Tory. Although. like an earlier Boris — I’m sure Randy would be flattered by the comparison — playing with anti-EU-ism, he got caught up in ‘_Ulster Will Fight and Ulster Will Be Right_’ as a cynical toy to storm the cabinet. > [@blindboyard](#): > > Incidentally, the Liberals haven’t formed a government since women received the vote. The National Liberals formed a minority in a few of the National governments, most notably Lloyd George being PM from 1915 to 1923, and the Liberals also took part in coalitions from 1924-25 and the LibDems in 2010-15. Female voters skewed Tory until 1997. And for some reason the progressive French Left never implemented Female Suffrage til after WWII. Something about the ladies, God Bless 'em, being naturally conservative and naturally prone to listening to priests… ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2017, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690/1257 "2017-06-14T21:52:23Z")
The French Chamber of Deputies passed a half-dozen women’s suffrage bills between the World Wars (granted a few were for local elections only), but they were all defeated in the Senate which wss dominated by the right-wing. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-snap-election-8-june-2017/784690.md?page=62)