# Ukraine attack not working as planned - scenarios? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [February 27, 2022, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-attack-not-working-as-planned-scenarios/960188 "2022-02-27T16:07:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2022, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-attack-not-working-as-planned-scenarios/960188/81 "2022-02-28T22:37:41Z")
> [@Spiderman](#): > > How much of a regime change is it if he’s replaced with someone who was loyal & like him? I imagine anybody as ambitious and dangerous as Putin was eliminated by him a long time ago. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2022, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-attack-not-working-as-planned-scenarios/960188/82 "2022-02-28T22:46:02Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > But if the situation turns into thousands of innocent Ukrainians being massacred every day, the political climate will shift so heavily in favor of intervention that Biden and other NATO-ers will be willing to take the risk. “technically”, all they need is the sitting president of the republic of ukraine, Mr. S. asking them to “help safeguard the airspace” of his country… and they might grant him this favor between friendly countries. that’s the nice thing about it … as he is democratically elected, it is “his” country, whilst Mr. P. has no legitimacy of being there. So as long as it is a broad alliance (and I see 20+ EU countries, japan and a few others), there is very little to “diplomatically object” this legal figure. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2022, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-attack-not-working-as-planned-scenarios/960188/83 "2022-03-01T03:40:29Z")
> [@Al128](#): > > I also think we are already half-way into a proxy war, where europe gladly send the Ukraine all it needs to stay afloat, just to show putin his limits and put him in his place … I can nearly hear the germans /dutch /polish reasoning … better to shoot our 1000s of stingers/javelins into russian warmachinery en kiev today rather than in berlin or warshaw in 2025. That is happening already, according to this al-Jazeera article which gives a run-down of the weapons that are flowing to Ukraine from the West. For instance, Germany has changed its policy about not sending weapons to an ongoing conflict, and Sweden has sent weapons, the first time it has sent weapons to a conflict since 1939, when it sent weapons to Finland in its battles with the USSR. (I suppose the Swedish government could just say its following its own precedent, not changing policy. ) > **[Which countries are sending military aid to Ukraine?](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/28/which-countries-are-sending-military-aid-to-ukraine)** > > In the Russian-Ukraine war, many countries including neutral non-aligned Sweden have started to send military aid. > [@](#): > > ## The Netherlands > > The Netherlands will supply air defence rockets and anti-tank systems to Ukraine, the Dutch government said in letters to parliament on Saturday. > > The Dutch government agreed to a Ukrainian request to rapidly ship 200 Stinger air defence rockets and 50 “Panzerfaust 3” anti-tank weapons with 400 rockets, the letters said. > > It is also jointly considering sending a Patriot air defence system alongside Germany to a NATO battle group in Slovakia, it said. > > ## Germany > > Germany will [supply](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/26/germany-approves-delivery-of-rpgs-from-netherlands-to-ukraine) Ukraine with 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger surface-to-air missiles from Bundeswehr stocks for defence against Russia. > > It is a major shift from Berlin’s longstanding policy of banning weapon exports to a conflict zone. > > “The Russian invasion of Ukraine marks a turning point. It is our duty to do our best to support Ukraine in defending itself against Putin’s invading army,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Saturday. > [@](#): > > ## Sweden > > Stockholm is also breaking its historic neutral stance to send 5,000 anti-tank rockets to Ukraine as well as field rations and body armour. > > It is the first time Sweden has sent weapons to a country in armed conflict since the Soviet Union invaded neighbouring Finland in 1939. ---
**Author:** ![Bootb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e19b73/32.png) [@Bootb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bootb)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2022, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-attack-not-working-as-planned-scenarios/960188/84 "2022-03-01T05:01:12Z")
> [@Spiderman](#): > > Hasn’t he purged or at least ‘de-toothed’ a lot of those who he perceived as threats? > [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](#): > > I imagine anybody as ambitious and dangerous as Putin was eliminated by him a long time ago. I daresay that Ceausescu thought he had done the same thing. ---
**Author:** ![jnglmassiv](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f07891/32.png) [@jnglmassiv](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jnglmassiv)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2022, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-attack-not-working-as-planned-scenarios/960188/85 "2022-03-01T05:37:39Z")
Here’s a nuclear scenario: Russia blows one up on their own soil, well filmed and documented, just to remind everyone who has arsenals. They tear up test treaties but international etiquette was already discarded at Ukraine’s borders. ---
**Author:** ![mordecaiB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mordecaib/32/7725_2.png) [@mordecaiB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mordecaiB)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2022, 9:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-attack-not-working-as-planned-scenarios/960188/86 "2022-03-01T09:49:33Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > That is happening already, according to this al-Jazeera article which gives a run-down of the weapons that are flowing to Ukraine from the West. For instance, Germany has changed its policy about not sending weapons to an ongoing conflict, and Sweden has sent weapons, the first time it has sent weapons to a conflict since 1939, when it sent weapons to Finland in its battles with the USSR. I wonder how many “advisors” are going along with all these weapons from the NATO countries. I’m not sure exactly what SAMs are being shipped, but even if it’s just man portable like Stingers, the troops are going to need _some_ kind of training. I’m not sure Ukraine has enough people to do the training, especially if the weapons are being spread out among civilians. There’s also the fact that these arms are not miracle weapons. The US gave the mujahideen so many Stingers we lost count and look how long that war dragged on. What Ukraine really needs is real time intelligence of Russian troop movements, which I think they are getting, and the ability to move their own troops and weapons rapidly to counter, which I’m not sure they are able to do. Five thousand anti tank missiles do you no good if they are 200 miles away from the armored column that’s breaking thru your lines. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2022, 10:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-attack-not-working-as-planned-scenarios/960188/87 "2022-03-01T10:17:40Z")
There is a limit to that before the Russians say fuck it and start hitting the delivery convoys and flights,. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2022, 10:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-attack-not-working-as-planned-scenarios/960188/88 "2022-03-01T10:21:35Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > There is a limit to that before the Russians say fuck it and start hitting the delivery convoys and flights Which would constitute an attack on a NATO member, which I don’t think is a line they’re going to want to cross. ---
**Author:** ![Cheesesteak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cheesesteak/32/3694_2.png) [@Cheesesteak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheesesteak)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2022, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-attack-not-working-as-planned-scenarios/960188/89 "2022-03-01T14:43:35Z")
> [@jnglmassiv](#): > > Russia blows one up on their own soil, well filmed and documented, just to remind everyone who has arsenals. Do they think we’ve forgotten? ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2022, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-attack-not-working-as-planned-scenarios/960188/90 "2022-03-01T14:51:24Z")
yeah … that’s just like shooting yourself into your foot to show you have a gun 😉 ---
**Author:** ![rbroome](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/838e76/32.png) [@rbroome](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rbroome)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2022, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-attack-not-working-as-planned-scenarios/960188/91 "2022-03-01T15:19:02Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > A 2006 US Army staff college study. Logistics was a major problem and the offensive got halted for nearly a week in 2003. thanks for linking to this report. I remember a couple of news articles about the logistics challenges at the time, and it is good to get some more details. I certainly agree that this is probably what Russia is facing, not primarily armed resistance. Though the armed resistance certainly makes the logistics more challenging. No country, as shown in the report not even the US, has the logistics to support a modern battlefield for more than a few days. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2022, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-attack-not-working-as-planned-scenarios/960188/92 "2022-03-01T16:29:22Z")
> [@Al128](#): > > that’s just like shooting yourself into your foot to show you have a gun While surrounded by cops with itchy trigger fingers. ---
**Author:** ![jnglmassiv](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f07891/32.png) [@jnglmassiv](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jnglmassiv)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2022, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-attack-not-working-as-planned-scenarios/960188/93 "2022-03-01T17:41:11Z")
> [@Cheesesteak](#): > > Do they think we’ve forgotten? There would be several audiences. Young Ukranian soldiers that didn’t experience the Cold War would be demoralized. Young Russian soldiers might get a shot in the arm. Ukranian politicians and commanders would probably be negatively affected. And the wider world would see just how crazy Putin is. I don’t think this will happen but it’s a scenario that escalates the conflict but falls short of an attack. ---
**Author:** ![JoseB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/joseb/32/1530_2.png) [@JoseB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JoseB)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2022, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-attack-not-working-as-planned-scenarios/960188/94 "2022-03-01T19:07:22Z")
If Putin has a nuclear weapon blown up in his own territory, I am envisioning that the next thing that happens is that one of his own generals will shoot him even at the cost of his own life, damn the torpedoes. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2022, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-attack-not-working-as-planned-scenarios/960188/95 "2022-03-01T20:52:38Z")
Russia has a whole lot of territory. Most of the nukes that the Soviet Union tested, they tested on their own territory. ---
**Author:** ![Senegoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senegoid/32/6606_2.png) [@Senegoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Senegoid)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2022, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-attack-not-working-as-planned-scenarios/960188/96 "2022-03-01T20:54:27Z")
I have seen some speculation that Russia might indeed blast a nuke at some remote Siberian wasteland, just for the sabre-rattling of it. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2022, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-attack-not-working-as-planned-scenarios/960188/97 "2022-03-01T20:56:14Z")
I’m certainly not saying that he will, or that he should, or that any good could come of it. Just saying that there’s a whole lot of places where they could “remind the world” of the power of a nuclear bomb, without actually hitting any territory that anyone lives in. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2022, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-attack-not-working-as-planned-scenarios/960188/98 "2022-03-01T20:59:47Z")
> [@Senegoid](#): > > I have seen some speculation that Russia might indeed blast a nuke at some remote Siberian wasteland, just for the sabre-rattling of it. I think any support Russia has in China would completely evaporate if he did that. ---
**Author:** ![Senegoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senegoid/32/6606_2.png) [@Senegoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Senegoid)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2022, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-attack-not-working-as-planned-scenarios/960188/99 "2022-03-01T21:01:55Z")
> [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](#): > > I think any support Russia has in China would completely evaporate if he did that.   All the better if so! ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2022, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-attack-not-working-as-planned-scenarios/960188/100 "2022-03-01T21:05:00Z")
I have a nagging theory that, regarding nukes, Putin may be willing to try something new. We’ve trodden the path of Kennedy staring down Kruschchev, Reagan acting like a reckless cowboy. The script always ends with Russia backing down. That’s no good for an aspiring emperor of Eastern Europe! Change is needed! I don’t think Putin wants even a tiny regional nuclear war, but I cannot shake this nagging suspicion that he must be wanting to nudge the Overton window just a bit. Pop off a very low-yield nuke close to the Ukraine border, maybe close to a reactor site. Create a cover story like “we didn’t use a a nuke, we used a thermobaric bunker-buster on the nuclear plant where the Nazis were hiding. Oops. No, you can’t send in observers. Is very dangerous place right now.” Naturally, few people would believe the lie. That’s not its purpose. The purpose is to provide a pretext for _enough_ people to say “he didn’t breach the norm, he’s says he’s still committed to the norm”, while demonstrating to the _right_ people that he really is crazier than we thought. We don’t want to let him get away with it, but hey, it wasn’t a population center, right? We don’t want a full-blown nuclear war, right? We’d probably just pile on more sanctions. So Putin becomes the guy who actually did it and got away with it. “Getting away with it” is Putin’s signature move. It really is to Putin’s advantage to prove he’s crazier than us, and it’s to our advantage to play along with it. That’s why I think he might believe he could get away with some low-level nuclear shenanigans. (caveat: that’s just a thought experiment, I might be full of shit) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-attack-not-working-as-planned-scenarios/960188.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-attack-not-working-as-planned-scenarios/960188.md?page=6)