# Ukraine is Finally Free! **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [February 25, 2014, 7:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-is-finally-free/682206 "2014-02-25T07:45:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-is-finally-free/682206/21 "2014-02-26T00:01:19Z")
Plus something m ---
**Author:** ![Israel\_Goldstein](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c89c15/32.png) [@Israel\_Goldstein](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Israel_Goldstein)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-is-finally-free/682206/22 "2014-02-26T00:07:31Z")
> [@Isilder](#): > > No. International politics won’t allow Russia to split off a large part of Ukraine. > > You must mean Southern Ossetia… Yes: I was just being lazy: I couldn’t spell “Ossetia”. 😕 ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-is-finally-free/682206/23 "2014-02-26T00:07:53Z")
Sorry for malformed post. Was going to say: something like 25% of the Russian economy depends on carbon exports. Even without the threat of a war, Putin can’t really afford the irreparable breach with the west that would come from trying to actually invade old Warsaw pact countries. ---
**Author:** ![Mk\_VII](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Mk\_VII](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mk_VII)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-is-finally-free/682206/24 "2014-02-26T00:17:01Z")
Ukraine is about flat broke and needs a massive bailout just to avoid default. Not the sort of liability the EU is willing to welcome on in. ---
**Author:** ![Capt\_Kirk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@Capt\_Kirk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt_Kirk)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-is-finally-free/682206/25 "2014-02-26T00:19:35Z")
> [@Israel\_Goldstein](#): > > If it’s only going to be a conventional war, then what is the problem? Neither side would use weapons of mass destruction over Ukraine. Russia would lose the conventional war, accept the losses, and head back to Russian borders, and the Ukraine could become a united free country that embraces Western Democratic Liberalism and joins the EU. > > I agree that if there was a chance of a nuke exchange, then war should be avoided completely. But neither side would use nukes unless it was their own borders that was being invaded. I do believe that you are engaging in a bit of wishful thinking. Russia’s Armed Forces, while not on an even par, are very capable and much closer to home than ours. Russia’s Navy is not going to give up its warm water port and the home of the Black Sea Fleet without a fight, no way no how, it would be strategic suicide. NATO would probably win but the cost would be terrible, Ukraine’s economy would be utterly destroyed and I doubt that the World would enjoy a wounded bear, licking its wounds and looking for revenge with President for Life Putin in charge. If we have to go to war, we go but talking is a better idea, for now. **Capt** ---
**Author:** ![YogSothoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/8edcca/32.png) [@YogSothoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YogSothoth)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-is-finally-free/682206/26 "2014-02-26T00:37:00Z")
Can someone clarify these past couple of Ukrainian presidents for me? A few years ago, the presidency was contested by 2 guys both with long, confusing last names. One of them was the current president (now deposed) and another was a guy who was poisoned and disfigured, right? He was poisoned allegedly by those with ties to Russia because the guy he was running against was pro-Russia and he was not? Then he gets elected and is horribly corrupt and the people elect this guy, and now apparently he’s also fucked up so bad that the people had to get rid of him by force? Is that the right timeline of events? ---
**Author:** ![Eva\_Luna](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e495f1/32.png) [@Eva\_Luna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eva_Luna)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-is-finally-free/682206/27 "2014-02-26T00:51:32Z")
> [@YogSosoth](#): > > Can someone clarify these past couple of Ukrainian presidents for me? > > A few years ago, the presidency was contested by 2 guys both with long, confusing last names. One of them was the current president (now deposed) and another was a guy who was poisoned and disfigured, right? He was poisoned allegedly by those with ties to Russia because the guy he was running against was pro-Russia and he was not? Then he gets elected and is horribly corrupt and the people elect this guy, and now apparently he’s also fucked up so bad that the people had to get rid of him by force? Is that the right timeline of events? More or less, and the poisoned guy was [Viktor Yuschenko.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yuschenko) I don’t know all the details of why he lost so much popularity while in office, except that the more I refresh my memory of the details of the events, the more I am convinced that all major Ukrainian political figures just suck. ---
**Author:** ![blindboyard](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blindboyard/32/2833_2.png) [@blindboyard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blindboyard)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 12:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-is-finally-free/682206/28 "2014-02-26T12:35:52Z")
Yeah, those elections in 2015 will now take place in 2014. Surely, history’s greatest triumph for freedom and democracy. And all it took was a gang of fascists and paid troublemakers wreaking havoc on the streets. [In Ukraine, fascists, oligarchs and western expansion are at the heart of the crisis | Seumas Milne | The Guardian](http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/29/ukraine-fascists-oligarchs-eu-nato-expansion) : > [@](#): > > You’d never know from most of the reporting that far-right nationalists and fascists have been at the heart of the protests and attacks on government buildings. One of the three main opposition parties heading the campaign is the hard-right antisemitic Svoboda, whose leader Oleh Tyahnybok claims that a “Moscow-Jewish mafia” controls Ukraine. But US senator John McCain was happy to share a platform with him in Kiev last month. The party, now running the city of Lviv, led a 15,000-strong torchlit march earlier this month in memory of the Ukrainian fascist leader Stepan Bandera, whose forces fought with the Nazis in the second world war and took part in massacres of Jews. Yes, at last the democratically elected government has been subverted by the righteous Jew-hating fascists of democracy. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-is-finally-free/682206/29 "2014-02-26T14:06:36Z")
> [@Israel\_Goldstein](#): > > The question is, would NATO be willing to counter Russia in a conventional war were Russia to move in? Is this even a question that’s on the table? I can’t imagine anything that would cause NATO to start shooting at Russia. If Russian tanks roll into the Ukraine, then , well, it’s tough luck for the Ukranians. Nobody will do anything to help them, except make speeches full of hot air at the UN, and maybe pass a resolution or two. And those speeches will be vague. They won’t even use phrases like “crossing a red line” or “all options are on the table”–after Syria and Iran, it’s meaningless. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-is-finally-free/682206/30 "2014-02-26T15:40:37Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > Is this even a question that’s on the table? I can’t imagine anything that would cause NATO to start shooting at Russia. > > If Russian tanks roll into the Ukraine, then , well, it’s tough luck for the Ukranians. Nobody will do anything to help them, except make speeches full of hot air at the UN, and maybe pass a resolution or two. > > And those speeches will be vague. They won’t even use phrases like “crossing a red line” or “all options are on the table”–after Syria and Iran, it’s meaningless. This. NATO wouldn’t back the Ukraine militarily against Russia. No way, no how. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-is-finally-free/682206/31 "2014-02-26T16:08:03Z")
You know who is not talking publicly or speculating wildly about Ukraine? Putin. Cold & calculating smart bastard that he is. ---
**Author:** ![Ranger\_Jeff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ranger_jeff/32/2065_2.png) [@Ranger\_Jeff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ranger_Jeff)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-is-finally-free/682206/32 "2014-02-26T16:54:25Z")
I called it again. Putin has called for unannounced military exercises near the Ukraine border. ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-is-finally-free/682206/33 "2014-02-26T17:35:08Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > Is this even a question that’s on the table? I can’t imagine anything that would cause NATO to start shooting at Russia. > > If Russian tanks roll into the Ukraine, then , well, it’s tough luck for the Ukranians. Nobody will do anything to help them, except make speeches full of hot air at the UN, and maybe pass a resolution or two. > > And those speeches will be vague. They won’t even use phrases like “crossing a red line” or “all options are on the table”–after Syria and Iran, it’s meaningless. Definitely this. Anybody who thinks NATO will do anything more than squeal about a Russian invasion is dreaming. They couldn’t be bothered to do anything more than squeal when Assad gassed his own people (and remember, it was _Russia_ who convinced Assad to give up the chemical weapons, or at least to pretend to do so). So, fighting Russia over the Ukraine is absolutely off the table. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-is-finally-free/682206/34 "2014-02-26T18:24:24Z")
And if the new Ukrainian government publicly calls for NATO protection? Will NATO simply say no? ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-is-finally-free/682206/35 "2014-02-26T18:26:47Z")
No. They’ll send 12 unarmed guys in white jeeps and blue helmets and call it a peace-keeping mission. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-is-finally-free/682206/36 "2014-02-26T18:33:15Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > No. They’ll send 12 unarmed guys in white jeeps and blue helmets and call it a peace-keeping mission. That’s the UN, not NATO. Different organizations. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-is-finally-free/682206/37 "2014-02-26T18:36:03Z")
:smack: In that case, nobody will show up at all. ---
**Author:** ![njtt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/ecd19e/32.png) [@njtt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/njtt)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-is-finally-free/682206/38 "2014-02-26T18:56:04Z")
Whatever Russia may do, about half the Ukrainian people, many of whom are ethnic Russians and/or Russian speaking (and who, as I understand, control the areas where most of the industry is), are going to hate the new leadership just as much as the rest hated the old. This whole thing is not about evil leaders (though it may be about incompetent ones, to some extent, who have exacerbated the pre-existing divisions for short term advantage), it is about a country with deep ethnic and social divisions, and the troubles are not by any stretch over. Division of the country might ultimately be the only way to achieve peace. In any case, it is really rather silly for Westerners to be taking sides on the basis of old cold-war prejudices. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-is-finally-free/682206/39 "2014-02-26T21:18:30Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > And if the new Ukrainian government publicly calls for NATO protection? Will NATO simply say no? They won’t respond at all – it will be as if they didn’t hear it. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2014, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-is-finally-free/682206/40 "2014-02-27T01:41:38Z")
BBC TV is reporting that Nato is warning Russia not to interfere in Ukraine. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-is-finally-free/682206.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-is-finally-free/682206.md?page=3)