# Ukraine.... your predictions?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948>\
**Category:** Great Debates\
**Created:** [February 22, 2014, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948 "2014-02-22T13:05:44Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 10

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\
**Post date:** [February 27, 2014, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/181 "2014-02-27T16:02:13Z")

</div>

> [@Alessan](#):
>
> Plus, if the Russians are in favor of secessionists, then someone should tell the Chechnyans.

Chechens.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\
**Post date:** [February 27, 2014, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/182 "2014-02-27T16:08:22Z")

</div>

> [@Terr](#):
>
> Chechens.

Gesundheit.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\
**Post date:** [February 27, 2014, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/183 "2014-02-27T16:38:31Z")

</div>

We may see whether the Russian military will intervene in Crimea sooner rather than later. [“Dozens of masked gunmen” have seized government buildings,](http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/28/world/europe/ukraine-tensions.html) including the regional parliament in Simferopol and have raised the Russian flag.

An armed response by the interim government of Ukraine could be used as a pretext for the Russians to intervene. I feel the need for some very skillful diplomacy at this point or things are going to spiral out of control quickly. Unfortunately, finding someone who would be trusted by both sides may be difficult to find at this juncture.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\
**Post date:** [February 27, 2014, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/184 "2014-02-27T17:53:52Z")

</div>

Yeah, the developments over night are pretty much the worst so far. Russian nationalists attempting to slice the Crimea away to Russia is a recipe for a civil war with potential for spiraling out of control.

I hope everyone’s better angels prevail, but I wouldn’t bet money on it right now.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\
**Post date:** [February 27, 2014, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/185 "2014-02-27T19:54:25Z")

</div>

> [@Malthus](#):
>
> Second, the break-up of a country due to _internal_ causes is something quite different from the break-up of a country because a neigbouring country would like a piece of it, thank you very much.

I agree.

In this case, though, it looks as if at least a significant portion of the Crimeans themselves actually _do_ want Russian protection - or even for Crimea to become a Russian territory. This is an “internal cause.”

_If_ - I repeat: _if_ - union with Russia is what an overwhelming majority of the people of Crimea want, I absolutely think this should be allowed, NATO’s sabre-rattling notwithstanding.

> [@Malthus](#):
>
> Third, the history of Europe in the last century is filled with examples of one nation “intervening” to “protect” an ethnic minority in another, with the real purpose being to bite off a chunk of territory for itself.

It can be both, though. The ethnic minority might genuinely want protection, or even union, while the motherland might just want to expand.

In Crimea, this might very well be the case. A lot of the Crimeans might genuinely want to join Russia, while Mother Russia herself, power-hungry as she is, might just want a fresh new slice of land.

> [@Malthus](#):
>
> The receint history of the US is not exactly replete with examples of the US invading and annexing terriory to protect ethnic US persons - you have to go back to wars with Mexico in the 19th century for that.

Very true. The U.S. generally finds other reasons to attack.

> [@Malthus](#):
>
> Is it your opinion that the difficulty of invasion is the only thing that prevents a US invasion of countries?

😕

The _only_ thing? Of course not.

> [@Alessan](#):
>
> Plus, if the Russians are in favor of secessionists, then someone should tell the Chechnyans.

When it comes to Chechnya, the Russians are hypocrites.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\
**Post date:** [February 27, 2014, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/186 "2014-02-27T20:05:51Z")

</div>

> [@Steken](#):
>
> _If_ - I repeat: _if_ - union with Russia is what an overwhelming majority of the people of Crimea want, I absolutely think this should be allowed, NATO’s sabre-rattling notwithstanding.

Am all for it - as soon as Chechnya becomes an independent country.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\
**Post date:** [February 27, 2014, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/187 "2014-02-27T20:11:40Z")

</div>

> [@Terr](#):
>
> Am all for it - as soon as Chechnya becomes an independent country.

Sounds good to me.

[Any land capable of producing songs as hauntingly beautiful as this one has my eternal sympathy.](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7V59c821yho)

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\
**Post date:** [February 27, 2014, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/188 "2014-02-27T22:11:42Z")

</div>

> [@Batistuta](#):
>
> But seeing the country’s corruption and demographics, I think they’re less of a threat than they’ve been during the last 103 years. And they have very few real allies, so their military should not worry the West

The demographic collapse has mostly bottomed out. Russia had a higher birth rate (barely) than America last year. And their population is projected to start growing again sometime around 2020.

Russia is still a world power, a developed industrial economy, currently (I think) the eighth largest economy in the world, and probably will continue to be one for the foreseeable future. Very far from South Africa, either in 1980 or today.

**Malthus** The problem with the anti-gay laws isn’t Putin. Most Russians simply have a lot of anti-gay sentiment. Those laws were overwhelmingly popular, and there’s a limit to what the government can do about it.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\
**Post date:** [February 27, 2014, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/189 "2014-02-27T22:20:56Z")

</div>

> [@Malthus](#):
>
> He made an assumption - one which is perfectly reasonable given the undoubted evidence, and one widely believed both inside and outside of Russia.

Putin ‘had journalists murdered’ was stated as a fact by Carnalk not an assumption. Based on the evidence as you define evidence then Carnalk should have said, many suspect Putin is tied to organized criminals/ corrupt Russian officials who might be linked to the unsolved deaths of maybe 17 journalists over a period from 2000 to 2009.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\
**Post date:** [February 27, 2014, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/190 "2014-02-27T22:54:35Z")

</div>

> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#):
>
> **Malthus** The problem with the anti-gay laws isn’t Putin. Most Russians simply have a lot of anti-gay sentiment. Those laws were overwhelmingly popular, and there’s a limit to what the government can do about it.

" … there’s a limit to what the government can do about it"? You make it sound like he’s _trying_ to be liberal on the issue of gay rights, but the people won’t allow him. Is there any evidence this is true?

Sure, the population of Russia is extremely homophobic, but they did not force the government to enact anti-gay laws - while I understand those laws are very popular in Russia. The head of that government cannot be sheltered from justified oppribrium for drafting and passing unjust laws simply because the laws are popular.

I simply do not understand why so many posters here seem intent on seeing Putin as a sadly misunderstood fellow.

Putin signs laws outlawing “gay propaganda”? Not his fault - there is only so much he can do, when the Russian people hate gays.

Putin almost certainly has journalists murdered? Well, it was only 17 of them, and over a whole decade - and where’s that absolute proof, hey?

Putin starts making noises about invading Ukraine and siezing Crimea? Well, the West provoked him. And they are hypocrites. Because the US invaded Afganistan.

What’s with all the apologetics for Putin?

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\
**Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/191 "2014-02-28T02:05:29Z")

</div>

> [@Malthus](#):
>
> I simply do not understand why so many posters here seem intent on seeing Putin as a sadly misunderstood fellow.
> 
> Putin almost certainly has journalists murdered? Well, it was only 17 of them, and over a whole decade - and where’s that absolute proof, hey?
> 
> What’s with all the apologetics for Putin?

I am not apologizing for Putin. I’m asking if you believe or even care if the number of journalists killed in Russia is seen ‘In comparative perspective’? I am asking if it possible that " the use of CPJ’s raw data can sometimes be misleading." ?  
This is the last paragraph from the following commentary:  
" Simply using the number of killings leaves Russia, with 52 killings since 1992, appearing as one of the world’s worst violators of journalists’ rights and free speech with the fourth highest volume of murdered journalists. When one introduces the country population factor into the CPJ’s list of the “20 Deadliest Countries” for journalists, a rather different picture of Russia appears. Russia moves from the position of fourth highest volume of murdered journalists to fourteenth in the top twenty on the CPJ list as of December 2009. "  
Calling for a comparative perspective is not ‘apologizing’ for anyone.

> [@](#):
>
> December 16, 2009 - REPRESSION OF JOURNALISM IN RUSSIA IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE - COMMENTARY Gordon\_2 By Gordon Hahn
> 
> American mainstream media produces an inordinately large number of articles highlighting the murders of journalists in Russia. These articles are in part motivated by, and often include data from the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) which does important work on documenting murders, beatings, and imprisonments of journalists across the world. However, the use of CPJ’s raw data can sometimes be misleading.  
> …
> 
> Journalistic and analytical articles usually cite the raw figure for the number of killings per country for one year or several, but these data are never put in context.
> 
> For example, the size of the population and the number of journalists influences the likelihood of such violence. The larger the population and the number of journalists in a given country, should increase the likelihood and occurrence of such events.
> 
> …  
> A better methodology would also factor in the number of journalists in each country; unfortunately, reliable data for all countries is unavailable. It would also be good to factor in the population in the years each journalist was killed and produce an average population over the period 1992 through July 2009, the date for which the population figures are relevant.  
> Regardless of the limits of bringing in the single new factor of country population in order to put the CPJ’s raw data in better context of population, it is more useful to consider this factor than not to. The results of this factor’s inclusion are included in the tables below.
> 
> **Russia in Global Comparative Perspective**
> 
> Simply using the number of killings leaves Russia, with 52 killings since 1992, appearing as one of the world’s worst violators of journalists’ rights and free speech with the fourth highest volume of murdered journalists. When one introduces the country population factor into the CPJ’s list of the “20 Deadliest Countries” for journalists, a rather different picture of Russia appears. Russia moves from the position of fourth highest volume of murdered journalists to fourteenth in the top twenty on the CPJ list as of December 2009 (see Table 1).

> **[Welcome to the Center for Citizen Initiatives Site - Center for Citizen...](https://ccisf.org/welcome-center-citizen-initiatives-site/)**
>
> Center for Citizen Initiatives -

And look at this:

> [@](#):
>
> **Comparison with other Post-Soviet States**  
> Simply using the number of killings leaves Russia, with the highest number of journalists killed among the post-Soviet states since 1992, tainting Moscow as the worst violator of journalists’ rights and free speech in the region. However, when the per capita method is used, Russia emerges as an average post-Soviet country (see Table 2). The worst violators become Tajikistan,Georgia, Azerbaijan. These three countries as well as democratic and NATO member Latvia turn out to have more journalists murdered since 1992 per capita than Russia.

Georgia of McCain’s _‘we are all Georgians now’_… from 1992 to 2009 had one journalist murdered per 500,000 of population … Russia over the same time period had one journalist killed per 2,700,000 of population.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\
**Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/192 "2014-02-28T03:35:54Z")

</div>

> [@Malthus](#):
>
> " … there’s a limit to what the government can do about it"? You make it sound like he’s _trying_ to be liberal on the issue of gay rights, but the people won’t allow him. Is there any evidence this is true?
> 
> Sure, the population of Russia is extremely homophobic, but they did not force the government to enact anti-gay laws - while I understand those laws are very popular in Russia. The head of that government cannot be sheltered from justified oppribrium for drafting and passing unjust laws simply because the laws are popular.
> 
> I simply do not understand why so many posters here seem intent on seeing Putin as a sadly misunderstood fellow.
> 
> Putin signs laws outlawing “gay propaganda”? Not his fault - there is only so much he can do, when the Russian people hate gays.  
> .
> 
> What’s with all the apologetics for Putin?

Perhaps you can understand why I should not be accused of apologizing for Putin if you understood my contrary outlook on America’s right wing political policies that are driven in large part by Evangelical Christians non-church political activism with proselytizing mixed up in the background, not just here but apparently all around the entire world.  
Some excerpts from [http://www.thenation.com/article/177823/how-us-evangelicals-fueled-rise-russias-pro-family-right](http://www.thenation.com/article/177823/how-us-evangelicals-fueled-rise-russias-pro-family-right)

> [@](#):
>
> The church’s close ties with American evangelicals reflect a shift in policy. For much of the post-Soviet period, the Russian Orthodox Church held evangelical denominations at arm’s length, fearing that they would compete for influence within Russia. But as the church has consolidated its power, it has come to view the evangelical community as a partner. “The ROC realizes that the evangelical denominations are not their opponents but rather their allies in the relations between the church and the secular population,” says Olga Kazmina, a professor of ethnology at Moscow State University.

> [@](#):
>
> The anti-gay measure is the product of a growing conservative movement in Russia spearheaded by the Orthodox Church and sympathetic lawmakers. Its goals are not only to criminalize homosexuality, but to limit access to abortion and reproductive healthcare and to aggressively promote the “traditional family” through state subsidies and other benefits.

> [@](#):
>
> This rising Russian social conservative movement frequently invokes the argument that pro-gay and women’s rights groups are puppets of the West, which is seeking to undermine Russian autonomy and interfere in the country’s internal affairs. At an annual meeting of journalists and academics \*\*presided over by Vladimir Putin in Valdai in September, \*\*the Russian president said that European countries had strayed from their roots by legalizing gay marriage. He urged Russians to embrace the conservative values of the Orthodox Church and other traditional religions and issued a warning to those who might want to challenge those values. “Russia’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity are unconditional—these are red lines no one is allowed to cross,” he declared.

> [@](#):
>
> The Russian Orthodox Church’s chief emissary to the US evangelical community is Hilarion Alfeyev, a high-ranking bishop and chairman of the powerful Department of External Church Relations (the position previously held by Patriarch Kirill). In February 2011, the 47-year-old Alfeyev traveled to Washington, where he met with prominent evangelical and “pro-family” leaders; and then to Dallas, where he addressed thousands of members of the Highland Park Presbyterian Church and emphasized the importance of “creat[ing] new alliances,” especially around issues of marriage, abortion and the family. Alfeyev also visited the Dallas Theological Seminary and had an hour-long meeting with George W. Bush

Americans hopefully have progressed enough on these social issues to POLTICALLY constrain the ‘evangelicals’ … from leading us backward… But I would not count them out.  
But no… I am not apologizing for Putin at all. Just want to straighten that out.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\
**Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/193 "2014-02-28T03:45:22Z")

</div>

**Malthus** I’m not particularly fond of Putin, though I love the masculine theatrics. He’s much too right-wing for me on economics- if I lived in Russia I’d probably vote for his main opposition, which is the remnant of the Communist Party- although it’s worth noting that in spite of his right-wing economics, Russia _still_ has less economic inequality than America.

I do think one has to concede his pretty important achievements though. Unemployment is down (also lower than America), economic growth is up, the abortion rate is down, and the birth rate is up, under his tenure.

I think the thing I like most about Putin is that he’s served as a counterweight to US foreign policy in Latin America and in the former Soviet bloc. I’m generally sympathetic to left-wing governments in places like Venezuela, Nicaragua, etc., and Putin has been a reliable ally of theirs (and they’ve generally returned the favour).

I also think the fussing about authoritarianism just makes me roll my eyes. Russia is not a country of liberal democrats, and they aren’t going to be a liberal democracy now or in the foreseeable future. (Which doesn’t terribly bother me; I’m fairly skeptical of democracy in general). The realistic alternative to Putin isn’t the liberal democrats, it’s the communists.

As for the Crimea, they’re overwhelmingly Russian, and it seems pretty clear they want to be part of Russia.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\
**Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/194 "2014-02-28T04:01:26Z")

</div>

> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#):
>
> As for the Crimea, they’re overwhelmingly Russian, and it seems pretty clear they want to be part of Russia.

As for Chechnya, they are overwhelmingly (95%) Chechen and don’t want to be part of Russia. So Russia can get Crimea, but only the day after Chechnya’s independence.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 6:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/195 "2014-02-28T06:11:00Z")

</div>

[Rather optimistic analysis from the _L.A. Times._](http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-russia-ukraine-20140227,0,3595373,full.story#axzz2uZ7BUMAQ)

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\
**Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 6:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/196 "2014-02-28T06:39:17Z")

</div>

> [@Terr](#):
>
> So Russia can get Crimea, but only the day after Chechnya’s independence.

I doubt Putin wants to split Crimea off from Ukraine or partition any part.

> [@](#):
>
> In dealing with Kiev’s new leaders, Moscow has roughly three policy options: cooperating, “spoiling” or fence-sitting.

> **[Russia’s Best Bet in Ukraine? Sitting on the Fence (for Now)](https://sputnikglobe.com/20140226/Russias-Best-Bet-in-Ukraine-Sitting-on-the-Fence-for-Now-187910994.html)**
>
> Since Ukraine exploded last week in a blaze of lethal violence and collapsed leadership, some ominous predictions have been circulating about Russia’s plans for its neighbor’s future.

Good commentary in that… The odds on choice will be ‘fence-sitting’…  
Putin suffered a set-back for sure but hostile or punitive actions against the new government in Ukraine won’t help. He’ll wait it out. The EU might cut a deal with Putin to share the cost of bringing Ukraine out of its economic and political chaos.

After all it was not Putin that instigated and carried out the overthrow of a democratically elected President.

He’ll sit back and see if Ukraine falls into worse condition that in was six months ago. before Putin and Viktor Yanukovych made a deal.

There’s no way Putin will hand Chechnya potentially into the hands of the Islamist terrorists that would take over this:

> [@](#):
>
> In May 2007 the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected that by 2015 Caspian basin energy production could reach 4.3 million bpd, concluding that in addition to the region’s proven reserves of 17-49 billion barrels, comparable to Qatar at the lower estimate and Libya on the high end, the region could contain an additional hydrocarbon reserves up to 235 billion barrels of oil, roughly equivalent to a quarter of the Middle East’s total proven reserves. Nor is oil the only energy deposit there. The Caspian’s potential natural gas reserves are as large as the region’s proven gas reserves and could yield another potential 328 trillion cubic feet of gas.

[http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article18299.html](http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article18299.html)  
OF Putin took your deal Terr, do you guarantee that whoever takes over from the Russian backed government there now would put all that natural gas and oil into construction and nation building for the all the peaceful people who live there?

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\
**Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 6:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/197 "2014-02-28T06:46:07Z")

</div>

> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> [Rather optimistic analysis from the _L.A. Times._](http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-russia-ukraine-20140227,0,3595373,full.story#axzz2uZ7BUMAQ)

Pretty much what I’m seeing too. Its probably more realistic than optimistic, but optimistic it is.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\
**Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/198 "2014-02-28T14:01:49Z")

</div>

> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#):
>
> **Malthus** I’m not particularly fond of Putin, though I love the masculine theatrics. He’s much too right-wing for me on economics- if I lived in Russia I’d probably vote for his main opposition, which is the remnant of the Communist Party- although it’s worth noting that in spite of his right-wing economics, Russia _still_ has less economic inequality than America.
> 
> I do think one has to concede his pretty important achievements though. Unemployment is down (also lower than America), economic growth is up, the abortion rate is down, and the birth rate is up, under his tenure.
> 
> I think the thing I like most about Putin is that he’s served as a counterweight to US foreign policy in Latin America and in the former Soviet bloc. I’m generally sympathetic to left-wing governments in places like Venezuela, Nicaragua, etc., and Putin has been a reliable ally of theirs (and they’ve generally returned the favour).
> 
> I also think the fussing about authoritarianism just makes me roll my eyes. Russia is not a country of liberal democrats, and they aren’t going to be a liberal democracy now or in the foreseeable future. (Which doesn’t terribly bother me; I’m fairly skeptical of democracy in general). The realistic alternative to Putin isn’t the liberal democrats, it’s the communists.
> 
> As for the Crimea, they’re overwhelmingly Russian, and it seems pretty clear they want to be part of Russia.

Since you care little for democracy and aren’t fussed about authoritarianism, why on Earth would it matter to you what the people of Crimea want? 😕

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\
**Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/199 "2014-02-28T14:09:44Z")

</div>

> [@NotfooledbyW](#):
>
> I am not apologizing for Putin. I’m asking if you believe or even care if the number of journalists killed in Russia is seen ‘In comparative perspective’? I am asking if it possible that " the use of CPJ’s raw data can sometimes be misleading." ?  
> This is the last paragraph from the following commentary:  
> " Simply using the number of killings leaves Russia, with 52 killings since 1992, appearing as one of the world’s worst violators of journalists’ rights and free speech with the fourth highest volume of murdered journalists. When one introduces the country population factor into the CPJ’s list of the “20 Deadliest Countries” for journalists, a rather different picture of Russia appears. Russia moves from the position of fourth highest volume of murdered journalists to fourteenth in the top twenty on the CPJ list as of December 2009. "  
> Calling for a comparative perspective is not ‘apologizing’ for anyone.
> 
> [Welcome to the Center for Citizen Initiatives Site - Center for Citizen Initiatives](http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/2009/12/repression-of-journalism-in-russia-in-comparative-perspective.html)
> 
> And look at this:
> 
> Georgia of McCain’s _‘we are all Georgians now’_… from 1992 to 2009 had one journalist murdered per 500,000 of population … Russia over the same time period had one journalist killed per 2,700,000 of population.

You take comfort from the fact that Russia is no worse that Georgia or Tajikistan on a murdered-journalist-per-capita basis? 😕 This is supposed to “add perspective”?

It isn’t some sort of contest. Russia can be terrible and Georgia and Tajikistan can be terrible as well.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\
**Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/200 "2014-02-28T14:48:57Z")

</div>

> [@Terr](#):
>
> As for Chechnya, they are overwhelmingly (95%) Chechen and don’t want to be part of Russia. So Russia can get Crimea, but only the day after Chechnya’s independence.

Fair enough. I believe Chechnya should be free, too. (I’m not optimistic about what sort of government they’ll choose for themselves, but that’s their business, not mine and not Russia’s).

[Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948.md?page=9)

[Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948.md?page=11)
