# Ukraine.... your predictions? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 22, 2014, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948 "2014-02-22T13:05:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/141 "2014-02-26T19:27:18Z")
> [@Batistuta](#): > > Same goes for Georgia, right?😉 What do you mean? Sakaashvilli served out his full democratic elected term despite ordering the military assault on South Ossetia. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/142 "2014-02-26T19:32:03Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > He’s like the Reagan of Russia, if Reagan had been able to sidestep term limits and had journalists murdered. Do you have evidence that Putin had journalists murdered? Please cite it. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/143 "2014-02-26T19:34:55Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > And the EU is already having problems. Anyways, a world government is such a futuristic fantasy right now, I don’t think it’s worth hijacking this thread about it. Eeexcellent . . . they’ll never see it coming . . . heh-heh-heh ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/144 "2014-02-26T20:01:19Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > Do you have evidence that Putin had journalists murdered? Please cite it. :rolleyes: On edit–huh, our rolleyes smilie is now rendering differently. Or is that just on my machine? ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/145 "2014-02-26T20:49:41Z")
Putin killed the old one. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/146 "2014-02-26T21:02:54Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > Do you have evidence that Putin had journalists murdered? Please cite it. > **[Anatomy of Injustice: The Unsolved Killings of Journalists in Russia -...](https://cpj.org/reports/2009/09/anatomy-injustice-russian-journalist-killings/)** > > Posted September 15, 2009 \* Download the full report as a PDF TABLE OF CONTENTS Preface by Kati Marton About this Report 1. Summary 2. A Record of Impunity: Seventeen Deaths Secrecy, indifference, and conflicts mar investigations into journalist... Seems an odd coincidence, that reporters critical of Putin are routinely murdered and their killings are generally unsolved. ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/147 "2014-02-26T21:32:29Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Only when Russia seeks to expand its influence via force or by economic threats or agaisnt the will of the citizens of countries it’s tryingh to influence. Maybe you’re right. But I get the distinct impression that a lot of Westerners are anti-Russian _whenever_ Russia seeks to expand its influence - even if this happens _with_ the consent of the citizens of the countries and/or territories it is trying to influence. See: South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and, in the case of Ukraine, Crimea. Were a plebiscite to be held in Crimea, where a clear majority of its people - let’s say north of 80% - voted in favour of union with Russia, I’m sure a lot of Westerners would find fault even with that. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/148 "2014-02-26T21:39:26Z")
> [@Steken](#): > > Maybe you’re right. > > But I get the distinct impression that a lot of Westerners are anti-Russian _whenever_ Russia seeks to expand its influence - even if this happens _with_ the consent of the citizens of the countries and/or territories it is trying to influence. > > See: South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and, in the case of Ukraine, Crimea. > > Were a plebiscite to be held in Crimea, where a clear majority of its people - let’s say north of 80% - voted in favour of union with Russia, I’m sure a lot of Westerners would find fault even with that. The problem is that the present Russian government is, by the measure of many Westerners, somewhat paranoid and hateful - for example, this latest anti-gay crusade, beating and killing journalists critical of the government, reflexive-seeming blaming of everything bad on the West, etc. ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/149 "2014-02-26T21:41:58Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > [Anatomy of Injustice: The Unsolved Killings of Journalists in Russia - Committee to Protect Journalists](https://cpj.org/reports/2009/09/anatomy-injustice-russian-journalist-killings.php) > > Seems an odd coincidence, that reporters critical of Putin are routinely murdered and their killings are generally unsolved. Thanks for the link. I read the summary. It blames the Kremlin for not doing enough to solve a series of murders of prominent journalists. It also blames the Kremlin for “marginalizing critical journalists, effectively barring them from state-controlled national television, and obstructing their work through politicized regulations and bureaucratic harassment.” It does not, however, accuse Putin of having journalists murdered. And it certainly doesn’t present evidence, which is what **NotfooledbyW** asked for. Like I said, though, I’ve only read the summary. Will dig deeper tomorrow. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/150 "2014-02-26T21:59:43Z")
> [@Steken](#): > > Thanks for the link. I read the summary. > > It blames the Kremlin for not doing enough to solve a series of murders of prominent journalists. > > It also blames the Kremlin for “marginalizing critical journalists, effectively barring them from state-controlled national television, and obstructing their work through politicized regulations and bureaucratic harassment.” > > It does not, however, accuse Putin of having journalists murdered. And it certainly doesn’t present evidence, which is what **NotfooledbyW** asked for. > > Like I said, though, I’ve only read the summary. Will dig deeper tomorrow. Such absolute proof is, in its nature, impossible to obtain. A leader who has the judiciary and police forces under his control is never, in the nature of things, going to be subjected to anything approaching a trial (unless he falls from power). If he is having people killed, there will be no conclusive evidence of it - other than circumstantial. Moreover, it is very unlikely that a document such as this, which is intended to create change within Russia itself, would come right out and accuse “J’accuse style” the leadership of murder. The circumstantial evidence in this case, as outlined in the report cited, is pretty compelling. It is as follows: (1) Many, many journalists have been assaulted and killed. (2) These journalists have been exactly those critical of the government. (3) The killings go unsolved. (4) The killings are unsolved in numbers greater than statistically probable, judging by killings in the same country unrelated to journalism. (5) The government has done nothing about said killings, even though they make it look bad. (6) There is evidence that police investigations into these killings are interfered with from ‘higher authorities’, in the direction of not solving them. In light of this evidence, all of which is in fact provable, it is a reasonable supposition that the killings are the work of those associated with the government - and whether Putin personally orders them or not, it is likely he is approving of the situation. Not “proof” in the sense that would stand up in court, but as remarked, that is unlikely to exist until/unless the government falls. ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/151 "2014-02-26T22:03:04Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > The problem is that the present Russian government is, by the measure of many Westerners, somewhat paranoid and hateful - for example, this latest anti-gay crusade, beating and killing journalists critical of the government, reflexive-seeming blaming of everything bad on the West, etc. I’m all for gay rights. On that point, I’m as “fuck Putin” as the next guy. As for the “reflexive-seeming blaming of everything bad on the West,” and the constant scheming, and the endless provocations back and forth - yeah, that happens, but I don’t really see how Russia is more to blame for that than the West is. [Kerry playing footsie with Georgia.](http://www.timesofoman.com/News/Article-30407.aspx) [McCain speechifying on Kiev’s Independence Square.](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10518859/John-McCain-in-Kiev-Ukraine-will-make-Europe-better.html) [And just now, the head of NATO threatening “whom it may concern” (wink, wink!) to butt out of Ukraine… Or else.](http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-26/nato-urges-intact-ukraine-as-russia-holds-military-drill.html) Again, Russia isn’t innocent in all this. But their paranoia isn’t quite unfounded, either. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/152 "2014-02-26T22:08:06Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > [Anatomy of Injustice: The Unsolved Killings of Journalists in Russia - Committee to Protect Journalists](https://cpj.org/reports/2009/09/anatomy-injustice-russian-journalist-killings.php) > > Seems an odd coincidence, that reporters critical of Putin are routinely murdered and their killings are generally unsolved. Is there a particular case in that ‘link to links to links’ where reporters who were critical of Putin? Are there any reporters who are critical of Putin that are not killed? ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/153 "2014-02-26T22:12:09Z")
> [@Steken](#): > > I’m all for gay rights. On that point, I’m as “fuck Putin” as the next guy. > > As for the “reflexive-seeming blaming of everything bad on the West,” and the constant scheming, and the endless provocations back and forth - yeah, that happens, but I don’t really see how Russia is more to blame for that than the West is. > > [Kerry playing footsie with Georgia.](http://www.timesofoman.com/News/Article-30407.aspx) > > [McCain speechifying on Kiev’s Independence Square.](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10518859/John-McCain-in-Kiev-Ukraine-will-make-Europe-better.html) > > [And just now, the head of NATO threatening “whom it may concern” (wink, wink!) to butt out of Ukraine… Or else.](http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-26/nato-urges-intact-ukraine-as-russia-holds-military-drill.html) > > Again, Russia isn’t innocent in all this. But their paranoia isn’t quite unfounded, either. I don’t see any of that as remotely equivalent to Russia blaming the West for the evils of the world, or as justification for paranoia. Ukraine and Georgia are now independant countries. Competing for trade agreements and the like is what independant countries do. Russia has no automatic veto over (say) an independant Ukraine joining the EU, and taking efforts in that direction - let alone warnings not to oppose it by force - as a ‘provocation’ that justifies anti-Western paranoia is irrational, and just the sort of thing that leads reasonable people to dislike the current Russian leadership. ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/154 "2014-02-26T22:21:40Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > I don’t see any of that as remotely equivalent to Russia blaming the West for the evils of the world, or as justification for paranoia. > > Ukraine and Georgia are now independant countries. Competing for trade agreements and the like is what independant countries do. Russia has no automatic veto over (say) an independant Ukraine joining the EU, and taking efforts in that direction - let alone warnings not to oppose it by force - as a ‘provocation’ that justifies anti-Western paranoia is irrational, and just the sort of thing that leads reasonable people to dislike the current Russian leadership. Come now. Nowhere did I claim that Russia should have an “automatic veto over (say) an independant [sic] Ukraine joining the EU.” But competing over influence - _that_ is what “independant [sic] countries do.” Western countries do it, with carrots and with sticks. And Russia does it, with carrots and with sticks. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/155 "2014-02-26T22:29:38Z")
> [@Steken](#): > > Come now. Nowhere did I claim that Russia should have an “automatic veto over (say) an independant [sic] Ukraine joining the EU.” > > But competing over influence - _that_ is what “independant [sic] countries do.” Western countries do it, with carrots and with sticks. And Russia does it, with carrots and with sticks. You made a comparison - that Russian governmental paranoia was a reasonable response to the West’s encouragement of Ukraine to joint the EU, or warning Russia not to invade. The West’s ‘carrots and sticks’ in dealing with enticing these countries tend to be rhetorical and financial only. Russia is threatening invasion. That “stick” is not the equivalent of anything the West is contemplating, or has contemplated. ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/156 "2014-02-26T22:43:18Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > You made a comparison - that Russian governmental paranoia was a reasonable response to the West’s encouragement of Ukraine to joint the EU, or warning Russia not to invade. No, I wrote that the Russian “governmental paranoia” is understandable given the West’s constant provocations, of which the threat to go to war over Ukraine is only the latest in a long, long line - including, _but not restricted to_, the three examples I listed. And NATO didn’t warn Russia “not to invade.” As the Bloomberg article states, it specifically emphasized the “principle of inviolability of frontiers.” That doesn’t simply mean “do not invade.” That means “you’re not getting Crimea.” An unnecessary provocation, not to mention an extremely hypocritical stance. > [@Malthus](#): > > The West’s ‘carrots and sticks’ in dealing with enticing these countries tend to be rhetorical and financial only. Russia is threatening invasion. That “stick” is not the equivalent of anything the West is contemplating, or has contemplated. No, that’s not true. The West - the U.S., specially - very often invades countries it doesn’t like. Or else, bombs them back to the Stone Age, without actually invading. Happens all the time. The Russians know this. They have seen it happen countless times. Hence, again, their acute paranoia. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/157 "2014-02-26T23:17:40Z")
> [@Steken](#): > > Again, Russia isn’t innocent in all this. But their paranoia isn’t quite unfounded, either. Russian paranoia was **never** unfounded, in light of their history; but it often has had a sadly self-reinforcing – and self-fulfilling – effect. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2014, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/158 "2014-02-27T00:48:12Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > In light of this evidence, all of which is in fact provable, it is a reasonable supposition that the killings are the work of those associated with the government - and whether Putin personally orders them or not, it is likely he is approving of the situation. Carnalk stated as if it were a fact that Putin ‘had journalists murdered’. You have very well distanced yourself from that. Saying it is 'likely that he is approving the situation is so close to saying it is unlikely that he approves of it there’s not much difference. But your message should be that Carnalk’s choice of words was not appropriate. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2014, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/159 "2014-02-27T01:27:26Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > Such absolute proof is, in its nature, impossible to obtain. A leader who has the judiciary and police forces under his control is never, in the nature of things, going to be subjected to anything approaching a trial (unless he falls from power). In the absence of absolute proof against Putin in a nation as vast as Russia over a nine year period - I think it is important to understand the investigations that all murdered journalists were involved with. Could you find one or two’ maybe three on this list from that link where Putin would me motivated to protect the assassins or killers? In reaching some conclusion about tying Putin to these murders I would start trying to find out if there is a connection to the journalists work and being harmful to any of Putin’s allies and friends. Here’s from that link: > [@](#): > > Paul Klebnikov, the editor of Forbes Russia who covered the connections between business, politics, and organized crime. A drive-by gunman silenced him in the street outside his Moscow office on July 9, 2004. > > Anna Politkovskaya, who produced devastating reports on human rights abuses in the North Caucasus for Novaya Gazeta. An assassin gunned her down in her Moscow apartment building on October 7, 2006. > > Eduard Markevich, the founder of a tiny weekly, Novy Reft, who questioned whether public employees in Reftinsky were using their offices for personal gain. An assailant shot him in the back on September 19, 2001. > > Pavel Makeev, a cameraman for Puls television, who tried to film illegal drag racing outside his town of Azov. Evidence shows a driver struck him May 20, 2005, and dragged him 50 feet, never applying the brakes. His equipment and video were taken. > > Yuri Shchekochikhin, deputy editor of Novaya Gazeta, who for two years meticulously uncovered a complex international corruption scheme. He was felled by a mysterious illness and died July 3, 2003. His medical records were classified a state secret. > > Ivan Safronov, military correspondent for the business daily Kommersant, whose exclusive reports described a missile failure and questionable arms sales. He fell more than four stories from a window in his Moscow apartment building on March 2, 2007. > > Maksim Maksimov, a reporter with the St. Petersburg weekly Gorod, who was investigating reports of corruption in the local Interior Ministry branch. He disappeared after going to meet a source on June 29, 2004, and has since been declared dead. > > Magomed Yevloyev, publisher of the independent news Web site Ingushetiya, who exposed official corruption and human rights crimes in the restive southern republic. He was shot and killed in state custody on August 31, 2008. > > Natalya Skryl, a business reporter for Nashe Vremya, who was covering the struggle for control of a steel-pipe plant in her hometown of Taganrog. An assailant bludgeoned her to death on a street near her home on March 8, 2002. > > Vagif Kochetkov, a political reporter for Molodoi Kommunar, who had written critically about business practices and organized crime in Tula. An attacker struck him on the head with a blunt object near his home on December 27, 2005. He died 12 days later. > > Valery Ivanov and Aleksei Sidorov, consecutive editors of the independent newspaper Tolyattinskoye Obozreniye, who exposed organized crime and government corruption in the car-manufacturing city of Togliatti. Assailants shot Ivanov repeatedly at point-blank range on April 29, 2002, and, 18 months later, on October 9, 2003, stabbed Sidorov again and again with an ice pick. Both were killed right outside their homes. > > Vladimir Yatsina, Magomedzagid Varisov, and Telman Alishayev, who were working in the volatile North Caucasus region. Yatsina, a photographer, had traveled to Chechnya on a freelance assignment when members of a criminal gang kidnapped him in July 1999 and then shot him the following February. Varisov, a political analyst with Dagestan’s largest weekly, Novoye Delo, had criticized people across the political spectrum before gunmen shot him on June 28, 2005. Alishayev, a reporter and host for the Islamic TV-Chirkei in Dagestan, had reported on sensitive religious issues before an assailant gunned him down on September 2, 2008. > > Anastasiya Baburova, a freelancer for Novaya Gazeta, who covered the activities of neo-fascist groups. A gunman shot her and prominent human rights lawyer Stanislav Markelov in Moscow as they emerged from a January 19, 2009, press conference detailing the early prison release of a Russian colonel convicted of murdering a Chechen girl. > > And Igor Domnikov, Novaya Gazeta reporter and special-projects editor, who had criticized the economic policies of regional administrators in Lipetsk. An assailant struck him with a hammer outside his Moscow apartment on May 12, 2000, leading to his death two months later… “Anastasiya Baburova, a freelancer for Novaya Gazeta, who covered the activities of neo-fascist groups”. Come on people. Neo-fascist groups? Valery Ivanov and Aleksei Sidorov, consecutive editors of the independent newspaper Tolyattinskoye Obozreniye, who exposed organized crime and government corruption in the car-manufacturing city of Togliatti. Organized crime and corrupt city officials ? Come on? Putin? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2014, 5:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948/160 "2014-02-27T05:00:20Z")
Ok. No need for the massive quote dumps. I’ll admit that maybe the ex head of the KGB and current absolute ruler is merely fortunate in which journalists are victims of unsolved murders. Further discussion could probably use it’s own thread. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ukraine-your-predictions/681948.md?page=9)