# Ultimate fate of Elon's Tesla Roadster **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Tags:** elon-musk\ **Created:** [February 9, 2018, 6:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ultimate-fate-of-elons-tesla-roadster/808501 "2018-02-09T06:15:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Francis\_Vaughan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/francis_vaughan/32/3093_2.png) [@Francis\_Vaughan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Francis_Vaughan)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2018, 6:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ultimate-fate-of-elons-tesla-roadster/808501/1 "2018-02-09T06:15:28Z")
Something that I though of in all the discussions about the recent SpaceX launch. There have a been a few questions about the long term fate of the Roadster. Elon muttered about millions - perhaps billions of years. However I wonder about that. The orbit is essentially from an apohelion of 2.61 AU to a perihelion of 0.98. Which is of course as expected as the final burn occurred whilst in Earth orbit. So, the orbit brings the Tesla back near the Earth. It seems to me that there is a good chance that the Earth is going to be modifying the Roadster’s orbit, and I wonder if in time either the orbit period will become locked to a multiple of the Earth’s, or if the orbit is more likely to be unstable and the fate of the Roadster is to be ejected from the solar system sooner rather than later. (Which would also be pretty cool.) I guess there is a very small but non-zero chance it hits the Earth or moon within the odd million or so years. So, any thoughts from those with more than a passing knowledge of orbital mechanics? What might the betting be on the chances of the various fates? Then again, I will put money on it being on display in the Smithsonian before any worse fate befalls it. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2018, 7:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ultimate-fate-of-elons-tesla-roadster/808501/2 "2018-02-09T07:09:31Z")
According to this article on LiveScience, exposure to radiation could tear the car to pieces within a year. > **[Radiation Will Tear Elon Musk's Rocket Car to Bits in a Year](https://www.livescience.com/61680-will-spacex-roadster-survive-in-space.html)** > > Elon Musk has launched his sportscar into deep space. Stellar radiation is going to tear it to bits. ---
**Author:** ![bob\_2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bob_2/32/3341_2.png) [@bob\_2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bob_2)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2018, 10:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ultimate-fate-of-elons-tesla-roadster/808501/3 "2018-02-09T10:37:03Z")
Makes sense - think what the sun does to red paint on the ground…🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Andy\_L](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c67d28/32.png) [@Andy\_L](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andy_L)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2018, 11:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ultimate-fate-of-elons-tesla-roadster/808501/4 "2018-02-09T11:21:13Z")
Anyone else think of the pickup truck-in-space encountered in ST: Voyager ([The 37's (episode) | Memory Alpha | Fandom](http://memory-alpha.wikia.com/wiki/The_37%27s_(episode)) )? ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2018, 11:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ultimate-fate-of-elons-tesla-roadster/808501/5 "2018-02-09T11:25:51Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > According to this article on LiveScience, exposure to radiation could tear the car to pieces within a year. That’s a bit of a mischaracterization. The article says basically that the upholstery could crackle within a year, and the rest of it could last for millions. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2018, 11:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ultimate-fate-of-elons-tesla-roadster/808501/6 "2018-02-09T11:52:16Z")
I’ve been thinking more about [Heavy Metal](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWMPe3wF9jQ), really. ---
**Author:** ![Fugazi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/f08c70/32.png) [@Fugazi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fugazi)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2018, 12:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ultimate-fate-of-elons-tesla-roadster/808501/7 "2018-02-09T12:21:06Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > I’ve been thinking more about [Heavy Metal](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWMPe3wF9jQ), really. That’s exactly the 1st thing I thought when I saw the picture of the Roadster. “Holy crap, he stole that idea directly from Heavy Metal” ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2018, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ultimate-fate-of-elons-tesla-roadster/808501/8 "2018-02-09T14:05:57Z")
> [@Darren\_Garrison](#): > > That’s a bit of a mischaracterization. The article says basically that the upholstery could crackle within a year, and the rest of it could last for millions. the link says radiation would also degrade the carbon fiber parts. it’ll probably be easily recognizable as a Roadster for a long time, but it’ll look like crap before too long. ---
**Author:** ![thirdname](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/d07c76/32.png) [@thirdname](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thirdname)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2018, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ultimate-fate-of-elons-tesla-roadster/808501/9 "2018-02-09T14:17:50Z")
From what I read, they said there is a small chance it could crash into Mars at some point. That makes me wonder, doesn’t that present a risk of biological contamination of Mars with Earth life? Did they make any effort to sterilize the Roadster like the NASA [Office of Planetary Protection](https://planetaryprotection.nasa.gov/about) does with their interplanetary probes? It seems like it would be difficult to do that, since it was already a used, fully assembled car with other items in it as well. ---
**Author:** ![kanicbird](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/5f8ce5/32.png) [@kanicbird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kanicbird)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2018, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ultimate-fate-of-elons-tesla-roadster/808501/10 "2018-02-09T14:36:39Z")
> [@thirdname](#): > > From what I read, they said there is a small chance it could crash into Mars at some point. That makes me wonder, doesn’t that present a risk of biological contamination of Mars with Earth life? Did they make any effort to sterilize the Roadster like the NASA [Office of Planetary Protection](https://planetaryprotection.nasa.gov/about) does with their interplanetary probes? It seems like it would be difficult to do that, since it was already a used, fully assembled car with other items in it as well. A chance yes, but mars is very small, and it’s orbit is passing by mars at a sharp angle. I’d say more of a chance of hitting earth. ---
**Author:** ![Dung\_Beetle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dung_beetle/32/7945_2.png) [@Dung\_Beetle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dung_Beetle)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2018, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ultimate-fate-of-elons-tesla-roadster/808501/11 "2018-02-09T15:45:28Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > I’ve been thinking more about [Heavy Metal](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWMPe3wF9jQ), really. Thank you; I’ve not seen it mentioned in any articles about this and was wondering if they’re avoiding the reference for some reason. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2018, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ultimate-fate-of-elons-tesla-roadster/808501/12 "2018-02-09T15:53:32Z")
> [@Andy\_L](#): > > Anyone else think of the pickup truck-in-space encountered in ST: Voyager ([The 37's (episode) | Memory Alpha | Fandom](http://memory-alpha.wikia.com/wiki/The_37%27s_(episode)) )? Yes. I looked for a video of it a few days ago, but couldn’t find one. (Couldn’t find a picture of it in space either.) And yes, I thought of _Heavy Metal_’s opening sequence too. ---
**Author:** ![Blue\_Blistering\_Barnacle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blue_blistering_barnacle/32/3386_2.png) [@Blue\_Blistering\_Barnacle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blue_Blistering_Barnacle)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2018, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ultimate-fate-of-elons-tesla-roadster/808501/13 "2018-02-09T18:48:27Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > I’ve been thinking more about [Heavy Metal](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWMPe3wF9jQ), really. > [@Fugazi](#): > > That’s exactly the 1st thing I thought when I saw the picture of the Roadster. “Holy crap, he stole that idea directly from Heavy Metal” > [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > Yes. I looked for a video of it a few days ago, but couldn’t find one. (Couldn’t find a picture of it in space either.) > > And yes, I thought of _Heavy Metal_’s opening sequence too. Yes, very Heavy Metal. I thought more of an homage rather than theft. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2018, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ultimate-fate-of-elons-tesla-roadster/808501/14 "2018-02-09T19:11:38Z")
> [@kanicbird](#): > > A chance yes, but mars is very small, and it’s orbit is passing by mars at a sharp angle. I’d say more of a chance of hitting earth. Depending on its orbital inclination, it might be significantly above or below the plane of Mars’ orbit when it crosses, in which case it would have zero chance of hitting Mars. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2018, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ultimate-fate-of-elons-tesla-roadster/808501/15 "2018-02-09T21:49:33Z")
Don’t forget about Elon Musk’s enemy in the suit and the dead hooker in the trunk. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2018, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ultimate-fate-of-elons-tesla-roadster/808501/16 "2018-02-09T22:07:38Z")
> [@Chimera](#): > > Don’t forget about Elon Musk’s enemy in the suit and the dead hooker in the trunk. 😃 Don’t be ridiculous. The dead hooker is in the suit. ---
**Author:** ![dzeiger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/46a35a/32.png) [@dzeiger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dzeiger)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2018, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ultimate-fate-of-elons-tesla-roadster/808501/17 "2018-02-09T22:13:53Z")
> [@Blue\_Blistering\_Barnacle](#): > > Yes, very Heavy Metal. > > I thought more of an homage rather than theft. I think ZZ Top’s Eliminator was last seen somewhere out in space as well… ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2018, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ultimate-fate-of-elons-tesla-roadster/808501/18 "2018-02-09T22:33:15Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > Depending on its orbital inclination, it might be significantly above or below the plane of Mars’ orbit when it crosses, in which case it would have zero chance of hitting Mars. When I asked [JPL’s HORIZONS Web Interface](https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/?horizons) to work out the epherides for that Tesla, the resulting table showed me that its orbital path was at most 1.09 degrees below the ecliptic, so orbital inclination is pretty low. ---
**Author:** ![AtomicDog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ac91a4/32.png) [@AtomicDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AtomicDog)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2018, 4:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ultimate-fate-of-elons-tesla-roadster/808501/19 "2018-02-10T04:48:08Z")
> [@thirdname](#): > > From what I read, they said there is a small chance it could crash into Mars at some point. That makes me wonder, doesn’t that present a risk of biological contamination of Mars with Earth life? Did they make any effort to sterilize the Roadster like the NASA [Office of Planetary Protection](https://planetaryprotection.nasa.gov/about) does with their interplanetary probes? It seems like it would be difficult to do that, since it was already a used, fully assembled car with other items in it as well. Musk intends to colonize Mars. Once you are living on a world, it’s pretty hard NOT to contaminate it. In other words, he doesn’t care. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2018, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ultimate-fate-of-elons-tesla-roadster/808501/20 "2018-02-10T04:55:26Z")
And it certainly isn’t like the probes we’ve sent there have made real, honest efforts to find microbial life. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ultimate-fate-of-elons-tesla-roadster/808501.md?page=2)