# Unemployment and the President's re-election chances **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 9, 2011, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423 "2011-07-09T16:56:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Recovering\_Republican](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d2c977/32.png) [@Recovering\_Republican](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Recovering_Republican)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2011, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/41 "2011-07-10T23:09:28Z")
> [@Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](#): > > Oh, this canard again. Obama doesn’t set the price of gasoline; the market does. There is a rapidly expanding base, worldwide, of people ready to consume gasoline. The supply can’t keep up with the demand, and likely never will. If you think paying $4.00 per gallon is bad, you haven’t seen anything yet. I’m sure I haven’t… ANd that’s the point, isn’t it? No, he doesn’t set the price, but he does have certain policies that have an effect. 1. He’s the one who decided to make war in Libya, and then not really make war in Libya. So instead of stomping Khadafy like a cockroach or letting him finish off these rebels (who are chummy with Al Qaeda, so no great loss), he’s made us a party to the stalemate. 2. Limiting Gulf Exploration- Not letting a good crisis go to waste. 3. ANWAR- can we finally all admit we don’t give a flip about scrub grass in the frickin’ tundra? Now, those are all short term solutions. Long term, we need to wean ourselves off petroleum. But it’s not like he’s got any great ideas for that, either. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2011, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/42 "2011-07-10T23:15:58Z")
The topic of this thread is unemployment, not gas prices, Congress, or the Ford and Clinton administrations. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2011, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/43 "2011-07-11T00:37:22Z")
I’m kinda curious how much a president, any president, can be help responsible for economic indicators. I get that a lot of Americans _want_ to blame (or credit) a president for bad news or good. ---
**Author:** ![Bloodless\_Turnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@Bloodless\_Turnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bloodless_Turnip)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2011, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/44 "2011-07-11T01:11:44Z")
They can certainly be blamed for lying about them. ---
**Author:** ![MOIDALIZE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2011, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/45 "2011-07-11T01:53:53Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > I’m kinda curious how much a president, any president, can be help responsible for economic indicators. I get that a lot of Americans _want_ to blame (or credit) a president for bad news or good. Most of what the president can do is indirect, bully pulpit stuff. But there are a bunch of unfilled government positions in the Federal Reserve and other agencies that Obama could have filled via recess appointments, but didn’t because he’d rather be the Grand Conciliator instead of the President. ---
**Author:** ![flickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7bcc69/32.png) [@flickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flickster)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2011, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/46 "2011-07-11T02:00:09Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > I’m kinda curious how much a president, any president, can be help responsible for economic indicators. I get that a lot of Americans _want_ to blame (or credit) a president for bad news or good. They can certainly be held accountable for both failed actions, such as the stimulus package, along with the perception of misdirected priorities. / interest, such as gun control or cap. & trade ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2011, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/47 "2011-07-11T02:25:55Z")
I guess gun control was just an arbitrary example there, just one possible thing that a President might hypothetically focus on rather than the economy? ---
**Author:** ![flickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7bcc69/32.png) [@flickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flickster)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2011, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/48 "2011-07-11T03:04:45Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I guess gun control was just an arbitrary example there, just one possible thing that a President might hypothetically focus on rather than the economy? Not really… Per Carney last week… [Obama To Unveil Gun Control Reforms In Near Future](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/07/obama-unveil-gun-control-reforms_n_892633.html) Per Newsweek earlier this year [White House to Push Gun Control](http://www.newsweek.com/2011/01/27/white-house-to-push-gun-control.html) ---
**Author:** ![DoctorJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/doctorj/32/2904_2.png) [@DoctorJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DoctorJ)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2011, 5:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/49 "2011-07-11T05:21:40Z")
Presidential elections are rare events, rare enough that it’s hard to extrapolate trends from them. Every Presidential election is the first time _something_ happened. It’s possible to argue that Obama can’t win with the unemployment rate where it is, but four data points spread out over nearly a century just don’t make for compelling evidence. ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2011, 6:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/50 "2011-07-11T06:40:07Z")
> [@flickster](#): > > Not really… > > Per Carney last week… > > [Obama To Unveil Gun Control Reforms In Near Future](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/07/obama-unveil-gun-control-reforms_n_892633.html) > > Per Newsweek earlier this year > > [White House to Push Gun Control](http://www.newsweek.com/2011/01/27/white-house-to-push-gun-control.html) Background checks. Oh dear Lordy, they comin’ for us! :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Recovering\_Republican](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d2c977/32.png) [@Recovering\_Republican](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Recovering_Republican)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2011, 10:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/51 "2011-07-11T10:59:22Z")
Here’s another little gem. Remember those kooky college kids who put Obama over the top last time. Well, most of them are out in the job market now, and 1 in 5 is unemployed. > **[The Glum and the Restless](https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/54356/)** > > Nearly one in five recent grads is out of work. Could that hurt Obama's reelection bid? > [@](#): > > Here’s a fact that should give economists—and maybe President Obama’s political team—heartburn: Two years after the Great Recession officially ended, job prospects for young Americans remain historically grim. More than 17 percent of 16-to-24-year-olds who are looking for work can’t find a job, a rate that is close to a 30-year high. The employment-to-population ratio for that demographic—the percentage of young people who are working—has plunged to 45 percent. That’s the lowest level since the Labor Department began tracking the data in 1948. Taken together, the numbers suggest that the U.S. job market is struggling mightily to bring its next generation of workers into the fold. > > This is a dangerous proposition, economically (for the United States as a whole) and politically (for the president). ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2011, 11:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/52 "2011-07-11T11:09:19Z")
> [@CaptMurdock](#): > > Background checks. Oh dear Lordy, they comin’ for us! :rolleyes: > [@flickster](#): > > Not really… > > Per Carney last week… > > [Obama To Unveil Gun Control Reforms In Near Future](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/07/obama-unveil-gun-control-reforms_n_892633.html) > > Per Newsweek earlier this year > > [White House to Push Gun Control](http://www.newsweek.com/2011/01/27/white-house-to-push-gun-control.html) Take it to a separate thread now. Great Debates may be a better choice than Elections. ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2011, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/53 "2011-07-11T15:26:22Z")
> [@Recovering\_Republican](#): > > Here’s another little gem. Remember those kooky college kids who put Obama over the top last time. > > Well, most of them are out in the job market now, and 1 in 5 is unemployed. > > [http://nationaljournal.com/magazine/recent-grads-economic-struggles-could-hurt-obama-20110707](http://nationaljournal.com/magazine/recent-grads-economic-struggles-could-hurt-obama-20110707) Also from your link: > [@](#): > > In a late-June Gallup survey, 56 percent of Americans ages 18 to 29 approved of Obama’s performance, the highest approval rating of any age bracket. Team Obama sounds unconcerned about losing young voters. Campaign officials note that thousands more of them applied to be summer campaign organizers this year than did in 2008. Sounds like those “kooky college kids” know a good thing when they see it, and that the GOP are hanging with the Empty Suits and Raving Lunatics… again. ---
**Author:** ![flickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7bcc69/32.png) [@flickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flickster)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2011, 3:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/54 "2011-07-12T03:15:19Z")
> [@CaptMurdock](#): > > Also from your link: > Sounds like those “kooky college kids” know a good thing when they see it, and that the GOP are hanging with the Empty Suits and Raving Lunatics… again. I would wager the current 56% approval rate amongst this group reflects a reduction of at least 30 points since the last election ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2011, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/55 "2011-07-12T03:36:47Z")
> [@Recovering\_Republican](#): > > Here’s another little gem. Remember those kooky college kids who put Obama over the top last time. > > Well, most of them are out in the job market now, and 1 in 5 is unemployed. > > [http://nationaljournal.com/magazine/recent-grads-economic-struggles-could-hurt-obama-20110707](http://nationaljournal.com/magazine/recent-grads-economic-struggles-could-hurt-obama-20110707) I was one of those kooky college kids, too. Almost all of those kooky college kids that spend insane hours making sure it happened in 2008 are chomping at the bit to get back in and do it all over again. ---
**Author:** ![DoctorJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/doctorj/32/2904_2.png) [@DoctorJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DoctorJ)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2011, 4:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/56 "2011-07-12T04:54:08Z")
> [@Recovering\_Republican](#): > > Here’s another little gem. Remember those kooky college kids who put Obama over the top last time. > > Well, most of them are out in the job market now, and 1 in 5 is unemployed. > > [http://nationaljournal.com/magazine/recent-grads-economic-struggles-could-hurt-obama-20110707](http://nationaljournal.com/magazine/recent-grads-economic-struggles-could-hurt-obama-20110707) Even if you buy that the recent college grads will turn against Obama, don’t forget that there’s a whole bunch of kooky college kids coming up right behind them. ---
**Author:** ![Oliveritaly](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oliveritaly/32/15233_2.png) [@Oliveritaly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oliveritaly)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2011, 7:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/57 "2011-07-12T07:18:24Z")
> [@Recovering\_Republican](#): > > Probably not. I mean, work would be an entirely new concept to them. \ I take issue with this. My salary has been paid for by the federal government for more than 23 years. Twenty years of that was as an active duty Soldier with the U.S. Army with a tour in both Iraq and another in Afghanistan. Now that I’ve retired and I have the ability to bill the U.S. government for crazy things like overtime or weekends; I still find that I don’t. Yet I can’t begin to count the number of times some crisis or another has popped up at 4:30 p.m. on a Friday or early on a Sunday morning. I realize, fully in fact, that there are disgruntled federal, state and local employees and that some of them need to have their pink slips handed to them but please don’t use such a broad brush. We aren’t all useless and lazy employees sucking down government funds. Some of us are very enthusiastic, passionate even, about our profession. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2011, 7:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/58 "2011-07-12T07:31:50Z")
> [@flickster](#): > > I would wager the current 56% approval rate amongst this group reflects a reduction of at least 30 points since the last election …and the amount would like to wager is…? ---
**Author:** ![Recovering\_Republican](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d2c977/32.png) [@Recovering\_Republican](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Recovering_Republican)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2011, 10:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/59 "2011-07-12T10:41:23Z")
> [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](#): > > I was one of those kooky college kids, too. Almost all of those kooky college kids that spend insane hours making sure it happened in 2008 are chomping at the bit to get back in and do it all over again. Well, thankfully, the grownups will realize what a horrible mistake that was, and fix it. Seriously, it’ll be funny to watch these kids go up to the door of some guy whose been unemployed for the last two years, and tell them we need another four years of this nonsense. ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2011, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/60 "2011-07-12T13:31:37Z")
> [@Recovering\_Republican](#): > > Well, thankfully, the grownups will realize what a horrible mistake that was, and fix it. > > Seriously, it’ll be funny to watch these kids go up to the door of some guy whose been unemployed for the last two years, and tell them we need another four years of this nonsense. Gee, maybe someone from the GOP campaign can go to this guy’s door and have a beer with him. 😃 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423.md?page=4)