# Unemployment and the President's re-election chances

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [July 9, 2011, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423 "2011-07-09T16:56:15Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 13\
**Page:** 7

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**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\
**Post date:** [July 23, 2011, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/121 "2011-07-23T13:17:26Z")

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[Ginger Cat](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-0-WPoq0UM) will take care of the problem when we elect her. Just scratch the economy on the butt. That will stimulate it. 😉

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**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\
**Post date:** [July 23, 2011, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/122 "2011-07-23T21:39:43Z")

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> [@Recovering\_Republican](#):
>
> Uh, guy, we should have squashed this guy like a bug by now.
> 
> Only took three weeks to topple Saddam. Only took a month to topple the Taliban.
> 
> Qadafi is not only still in power, but he’s regaining territory.

Um, guy, your entire post demonstrates a lack of comprehension of both the post you were responding to and what we’re actually doing in Libya. We have not invaded Libya. AFAICT it is not our intention to invade Libya. We’re trying to support the Libyan rebels in their own efforts to overthrow Qadafi, in vaguely the same way the French supported the colonists during the War of American Independence.

But hey, maybe we should invade. I’m not sure what troops we’d send since at this point the only ones left are the Coast Guard and Cub Scout Troop #247 from Poughkeepsie, but maybe we should reinstitute the draft like you suggested we do for Iraq? That would sort out the unemployment problem too.

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**Author:** ![Recovering\_Republican](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d2c977/32.png) [@Recovering\_Republican](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Recovering_Republican)\
**Post date:** [July 24, 2011, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/123 "2011-07-24T00:24:26Z")

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> [@Gyrate](#):
>
> Um, guy, your entire post demonstrates a lack of comprehension of both the post you were responding to and what we’re actually doing in Libya. We have not invaded Libya. AFAICT it is not our intention to invade Libya. We’re trying to support the Libyan rebels in their own efforts to overthrow Qadafi, in vaguely the same way the French supported the colonists during the War of American Independence.
> 
> But hey, maybe we should invade. I’m not sure what troops we’d send since at this point the only ones left are the Coast Guard and Cub Scout Troop #247 from Poughkeepsie, but maybe we should reinstitute the draft like you suggested we do for Iraq? That would sort out the unemployment problem too.

Oh, you’re right, I have no idea what the fuck we are trying to do in Libya. Unfortenately, The One has no idea what the fuck he’s trying to do in Libya, either, and that’s the problem, isn’t it? (sorry for the profanity, but this is exactly why I despise this clown.)

What should be painfully obvious to everyone is that the anti-Qadaffi rebels have NO CHANCE of ever defeating Moamar. Ain’t gonna happen. So why are we throwing expensive missiles at the problem again?

To top it all off, it’s pretty clear we probably wouldn’t WANT these guys to win. They’re Al Qaeda. Fundementalist cash in your 76 virgins crazy, some of whom were killing our troops in Iraq only a few years ago. Khadafy might be a douchebag, but he’s a douchebag the West can deal with.

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**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\
**Post date:** [July 24, 2011, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/124 "2011-07-24T00:52:04Z")

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> [@Recovering\_Republican](#):
>
> Oh, you’re right, I have no idea what the fuck we are trying to do in Libya. Unfortenately, The One has no idea what the fuck he’s trying to do in Libya, either, and that’s the problem, isn’t it? (sorry for the profanity, but this is exactly why I despise this clown.)

Really? It’s pretty obvious to the rest of us. Maybe it’s just you?

> [@](#):
>
> What should be painfully obvious to everyone is that the anti-Qadaffi rebels have NO CHANCE of ever defeating Moamar. Ain’t gonna happen.

Um. Might want to check the news occasionally. They’re pushing the government forces back, and the government is running out of money rapidly while the rebels get increasingly organised, are able to sell oil and are gaining international recognition as a legitimate political entity. There’s a long way to go but things are moving in the rebels’ favor.

> [@](#):
>
> So why are we throwing expensive missiles at the problem again?

Because the rebels actually have quite a good chance of winning, and we’d like them to. Of course, sending in troops would be a lot more expensive.

> [@](#):
>
> To top it all off, it’s pretty clear we probably wouldn’t WANT these guys to win. They’re Al Qaeda. Fundementalist cash in your 76 virgins crazy, some of whom were killing our troops in Iraq only a few years ago.

Cite?

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**Author:** ![Recovering\_Republican](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d2c977/32.png) [@Recovering\_Republican](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Recovering_Republican)\
**Post date:** [July 24, 2011, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/125 "2011-07-24T17:11:54Z")

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I do not do cites…Look it up yourself, that’s why God gave you Google.

Type “Libya Rebels Al Qaeda”

All sorts of interesting stuff there… and The One is backing these guys.

> **[Libyan rebel commander admits his fighters have al-Qaeda links](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8407047/Libyan-rebel-commander-admits-his-fighters-have-al-Qaeda-links.html)**
>
> Abdel-Hakim al-Hasidi, the Libyan rebel leader, has said jihadists who fought against allied troops in Iraq are on the front lines of the battle against Muammar Gaddafi's regime.

> [@](#):
>
> Abdel-Hakim al-Hasidi, the Libyan rebel leader, has said jihadists who fought against allied troops in Iraq are on the front lines of the battle against Muammar Gaddafi’s regime.
> 
> Mr al-Hasidi insisted his fighters “are patriots and good Muslims, not terrorists,” but added that the “members of al-Qaeda are also good Muslims and are fighting against the invader”.
> 
> His revelations came even as Idriss Deby Itno, Chad’s president, said al-Qaeda had managed to pillage military arsenals in the Libyan rebel zone and acquired arms, “including surface-to-air missiles, which were then smuggled into their sanctuaries”.
> 
> Mr al-Hasidi admitted he had earlier fought against “the foreign invasion” in Afghanistan, before being “captured in 2002 in Peshwar, in Pakistan”. He was later handed over to the US, and then held in Libya before being released in 2008.

Hey, let’s take notes, when they knock down a skyscraper in a few years, we need to remember who these guys were.

and then there’s THIS gem… It’s in HuffPo, so it must be true…

> **[Anti-American Extremists Among Libyan Rebels U.S. Has Vowed To Protect](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/extremists-among-libya-rebels_n_837894)**
>
> Anti-American Extremists Among Libyan Rebels U.S. Has Vowed To Protect

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**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\
**Post date:** [July 24, 2011, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/126 "2011-07-24T17:50:15Z")

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> [@flickster](#):
>
> Yea, I’m just thrilled he tapped into the Strategic Reserve…The resulting effects of that still have me in complete awe :rolleyes:

The point of the reserve release was to send a message to oil speculators. Nearly half the cost of oil is due to them. They are making billions without doing a lick of work.  
Releasing 4 percent of the reserve, one time, does not have a continuing effect of supplies, which are very high anyway.

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**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\
**Post date:** [July 24, 2011, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/127 "2011-07-24T17:50:32Z")

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> [@Recovering\_Republican](#):
>
> I do not do cites…Look it up yourself, that’s why God gave you Google.
> 
> Type “Libya Rebels Al Qaeda”
> 
> All sorts of interesting stuff there… and The One is backing these guys.
> 
> [http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8407047/Libyan-rebel-commander-admits-his-fighters-have-al-Qaeda-links.html](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8407047/Libyan-rebel-commander-admits-his-fighters-have-al-Qaeda-links.html)
> 
> Hey, let’s take notes, when they knock down a skyscraper in a few years, we need to remember who these guys were.
> 
> and then there’s THIS gem… It’s in HuffPo, so it must be true…
> 
> [http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/19/extremists-among-libya-rebels\_n\_837894.html](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/19/extremists-among-libya-rebels_n_837894.html)

Gee, you weren’t worried about these guys taking over the ME when we taking out Saddam Hussein – NOW you’re getting picky? If we hadn’t invaded Iraq for no good reason whatsoever, we wouldn’t have to stick our hand in this hornet’s nest now.

There are times, I admit, when I would simply wall off the entire ME and let these nutjobs have at it. If they want to live in a sandheap because some Bronze Age fairytale says it’s the Promised Land, let 'em.

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**Author:** ![Recovering\_Republican](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d2c977/32.png) [@Recovering\_Republican](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Recovering_Republican)\
**Post date:** [July 25, 2011, 10:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/128 "2011-07-25T10:53:44Z")

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> [@CaptMurdock](#):
>
> Gee, you weren’t worried about these guys taking over the ME when we taking out Saddam Hussein – NOW you’re getting picky? If we hadn’t invaded Iraq for no good reason whatsoever, we wouldn’t have to stick our hand in this hornet’s nest now.
> 
> There are times, I admit, when I would simply wall off the entire ME and let these nutjobs have at it. If they want to live in a sandheap because some Bronze Age fairytale says it’s the Promised Land, let 'em.

Of course we have to stick our hands in this hornets nest. Our whole policy there is based on two things 0

Keeping the Petroleum flowing.

Protecting Israel from Reality.

Personally, I’d like to invest in an alternative to petroleum (we can drill, baby drill in the meantime! Screw the Caribou in ANWAR). As far as Israel, screw them. Seriously. Another bunch playing the guilt card.

But that’s why we are there. Supporting the Al Qaeda backed nutters trying to topple Qadaffi doesn’t really help either. Gas was 3.97 at the gas station I pass every day on the way to work.

Of course, the One sold Mubarek down the river, and then he saw Libya as some kind of Arab Spring BS, like having the Muslim Brotherhood running the show would be a better thing.

(Seriously, if you wonder why the Town Hall Loonies think this guy is a crypto-Muslim, it’s because he does stuff like this.)

Another point, why are we NOT helping the Syrian Rebels who are being wiped out by Bashir Assad? They are a lot more sympathetic than the Libyan Rebels. Oh. Wait. No Oil, too close to Israel.

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**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\
**Post date:** [July 25, 2011, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/129 "2011-07-25T18:45:18Z")

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> [@CaptMurdock](#):
>
> Gas prices have been dropping, slowly and steadily, for months. Crawl out of your basement sometime…

Wow, where do you live that this is true? Prices dropped 25 cents or so over the past couple of months, then, for (almost) a couple of weeks around when the Strategic Reserve was tapped, they dropped twenty cents more, before heading right back up to where they were before the SR was tapped and still rising so we’re now within a quarter of this year’s highest prices. [Gas Buddy](http://www.gasbuddy.com/) shows my state and the entire US both on a price upswing at the moment, and if you play with their charts you can see that the opposite of what you claim is true: in the past six months the average US gas prices have gone up nearly 70 cents a gallon, not dropped slowly.

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**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\
**Post date:** [July 27, 2011, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/130 "2011-07-27T17:55:51Z")

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> [@Recovering\_Republican](#):
>
> The key point you have to keep in mind is that the reason why unemployment was shooting up in Jimmy’s last year was that he and Paul Volcker had the brilliant idea that the way to get rid of double digit inflation was to trigger double digit unemployment. THAT’S why people voted Jimmy Carter out. The awfulness was so bad that they developed a new term for it… Misery Index.

People have argued that there’s not a strong link between high unemployment and losing reelection. Fine. You know what’s interesting, though? If you look at the wiki page for the Misery Index it give the average misery index scores all the way back to Truman. Notice something **all** the presidents who didn’t have a second term have in common? The average score for their term was above 10.

Scan the lists and there are only two other people with an average above 10: Regan, who came into office at 19.33 (It had been as high as 21 in the previous six months) and knocked the average down to 14.43\* before reelection, and Obama, for whom the index has gained 4.93 points since he took office.

\*start date misery index in chart one 19.33 minus chart two degree of change -4.9 in term one equals 14.43

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**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\
**Post date:** [July 28, 2011, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/131 "2011-07-28T22:07:42Z")

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> [@elfkin477](#):
>
> … Notice something **all** the presidents who didn’t have a second term have in common? The average score for their term was above 10…
> 
> Scan the lists and there are only two other people with an average above 10: Regan, who came into office at 19.33 (It had been as high as 21 in the previous six months) and knocked the average down to 14.43\* before reelection, and Obama, for whom the index has gained 4.93 points since he took office.

I certainly feel that many Republicans in 2008 were smart enough to realize  
[ul][li] The economy was in for a tough ride for several years.[/li][li] Involvement in Afghan. & Iraq, domestic politics, and other areas were likely to worsen, as well as the economy, increasing discontent with any Administration. Fiscal issues, terror attacks, etc. might also make the President elected in 2008 a one-termer.[/li][li] Therefore, losing the 2008 election is best chance to win 2012 election.[/li][/ul]

Naturally they wanted to put on a good show. Most Republicans were unaware of the ploy, etc. But do not many agree that crafty Republican planners knew 2008 victory was not a priority objective?

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**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\
**Post date:** [September 6, 2011, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/132 "2011-09-06T18:50:53Z")

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> [@elfkin477](#):
>
> Wow, where do you live that this is true? Prices dropped 25 cents or so over the past couple of months, then, for (almost) a couple of weeks around when the Strategic Reserve was tapped, they dropped twenty cents more, before heading right back up to where they were before the SR was tapped and still rising so we’re now within a quarter of this year’s highest prices. [Gas Buddy](http://www.gasbuddy.com/) shows my state and the entire US both on a price upswing at the moment, and if you play with their charts you can see that the opposite of what you claim is true: in the past six months the average US gas prices have gone up nearly 70 cents a gallon, not dropped slowly.

With crude at around 80 bucks a barrel, it should be a hell of a lot cheaper. We are being robbed.

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**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\
**Post date:** [September 8, 2011, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unemployment-and-the-presidents-re-election-chances/588423/133 "2011-09-08T16:21:46Z")

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> [@gonzomax](#):
>
> With crude at around 80 bucks a barrel, it should be a hell of a lot cheaper. We are being robbed.

Now that I agree with.

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