Bernie’s really going to have to sell it. Do you think Bernie can and will sell it to his supporters?
I hope so. We’ll see if the Biden camp wants to try it, and we’ll see it Bernie agrees to something like it, and then we’ll see if Bernie can successfully sell it to most of his supporters. No guarantees, but ignoring the Bernie faction risks losing a big chunk of them for the general election.
The VP would be key, especially because Biden is so old. Picking a VP that Bernie and his supporters like (and one that endorses most of Bernie’s major policies) is pretty much picking the next Democratic candidate, should Biden win the general. That could be pretty significant.
It’s between 3 and 4 percent. I don’t see where Warren is going to pick up more delegates at this point.
But accepting your scenario, the super delegates kick in and give the race easily to Biden.
But then what? Do they ignore the Bernie supporters, or do they try and give them a stake in the candidate and thus the general election?
I don’t know how it appeases the Bernie Bros at all, but my 2 cents is that it would be neat for the 2008-2012 “Obama-Biden” ticket to be followed up by a “Biden-Obama” ticket.
Well, Biden can’t select another Tim Kaine. But it also can’t be someone who is such a sharp contrast to him that it would look like an obvious ploy. There is no possible running mate chemistry between Sanders and Abrams. How would it even pass the sniff test with Biden and Abrams when Sanders has shown so much difficulty attracting young black voters? Biden and Booker, sure. Rolls right off the tongue. Try it.
I would hope that Bernie know that if he wants to come even close to getting policies he approves of passed, he will need to bring it. If Biden is the nominee, it is up to Bernie to get his supporters on board. he know that his options are to go all in for the Democratic candidate or have four more years of Trump. He is not stupid. He is not going to delay his support like last time.
Booker would do nothing to bring in the Bernie crowd. Abrams was endorsed by Our Revolution and, IIRC, supported Bernie in '16. Also, I believe you’re wrong about “young black voters” – Bernie’s problem is with older black voters, but IIRC he does quite well with young black voters.
I don’t understand your objection here to Abrams. And if you don’t like her, do you have a suggestion that could help bring in Bernie and his supporters? Or do you not believe there’s any value in trying to bring those voters in?
With Bloomberg out, I doubt that we will reach a brokered convention. There are 148 delegates pledged to candidates other than Biden or Sanders. The total delegate count is 4,051, so about 3.65% who are unavailable to the two front runners on the first round. Given that Elizabeth Warren is the only other major candidate still remaining and seemingly unlikely to win more delegates, it now seems unlikely to me that we’ll have a contested convention. I think the only way to get there would be if the states that haven’t voted yet end up with something like a 52/48 split in favor of Sanders. That could happen, but it doesn’t seem very likely at this point.
Biden-Yang
It’s not just about Bernie, it’s also about Biden. I believe that, if he wins the nomination, Biden’s best chance to win the general election is to do everything he can to bring all the Bernie supporters onboard. I hope they all vote for the nominee regardless of who it is, but the best chance of making sure that happens is for the winner to reach out with significant concessions to the loser, IMO.
You might be right, but my suggestion would apply to a non-brokered convention too. The idea is that Biden should do everything possible to bring the Bernie voters onboard, because he’s much less likely to win if a very large chunk of them stay home or vote Trump.
I think it’s likely Biden already promised Klobuchar the VP spot. Assuming he hasn’t, I have no problems with Abrams as a running mate. Either way, I think Bernie himself will determine how his voters react. My hope is that Biden would approach it the old fashioned way, and ask Bernie for his support rather than imply that it should be given just because he’s the nominee.
I like Stacy a lot. But I also think she lacks experience to be named VP. I’m also not sure about the kind of political running mate symbiotic vibe she’d have with Biden. But I’m open to being proven wrong on both counts.
I guess I need to see Bernie’s numbers wrt young black voters. I’m sure they are out there, somewhere, or will be shortly.
Okay. Do you have a different suggestion to try and unify with Bernie and his supporters? Or do you think there’s no point in trying to do that?
“Much like in South Carolina, Sanders appeared to do better with younger black voters in the states compared to older voters. While he still lost among black voters ages 30 to 44 in Virginia, for example, he lagged by 11 points among the group. Among black voters 45 to 59 in the state, meanwhile, he lagged by 50 points.”
This is only VA, but that’s what I could find in a few minutes of googling. He’s not winning younger black voters, but he’s competitive – it’s with older black voters that he gets blown out.
Stacy Abrams is a no-go. Sorry, but she’s been playing footsie too long. She was coyly suggesting she’d take Bloomberg’s VP slot, she’s passed up two senate chances.
Nice run for Governor, but it’s not enough.
Honestly, if we’re talking about a Come to Jesus moment for the Biden and Sanders camps, it’s Sanders that has to do the heavy lift here. Because his most strident supporters, and Sanders to the extent that he bears some responsibility, has done the bulk of the damage in driving the wedge between the “revolutionaries” and the “moderates”.
So Sanders will have to symbolically bend his knee at some point and command his followers to do the same. I’m skeptical that Sanders will muster the humility to do so. Here again, I’m open to being proven wrong.
I appreciate your optimism but, “Better with” is not “majority of”.
I don’t care about who bears responsibility (and I strongly disagree with you about who bears it, but it’s irrelevant) - I care about a strategy that might have a hope of bringing in as many Democratic voters as possible. I don’t think Bernie voters will automatically do what Bernie says - if Biden wants those voters, and IMO he’s very foolish if he doesn’t, then he might need to actually do something to appeal to them. I think it’s very dumb to worry about things like who bears responsibility as compared to how do we get all these voters.
You’re saying, “Let’s find a way to bring everybody together”, but what you’re really saying is the moderates have to make an appeal to the revolutionaries. Even though the revolution didn’t quite go their way.
But fine. Realpolitik. I get it.
Do you think (if it did not lead to losing a dem senate seat) that choosing a Bernie-lite like Elizabeth Warren for a running mate would satisfy the majority of Sanders voters? I mean, in the spirit of coming together in compromise. I think Biden and Warren would make a very simpatico team. Don’t you?
Bernie-or-Busters are clustered in blue states (and specific bits of red ones), while Biden-or-Busters — people who voted for Trump or not at all in 2016, and will vote for Biden in November but would vote for Trump or not at all if Bernie were the Dem candidate — are clustered in the places that matter — the purple places, like the small Midwestern city I live in.
So, if telling Bernie and his bros to fuck off means 10 fewer Biden votes from the first group, but 10 more from the second, I’m going with “fuck off.”
The math is even easier than this, though, because the second group actually VOTES more reliably than the first, period.
BUT, the nice, socialist-leaning, compromising, inclusive Democrat (and small-d democrat ) in me sympathizes with the OP’s proposal. Despite the math, I’ll probably end up bending over backwards to stroke the Bernie bros’ hurt feelings. After all, I agree with nearly all their GOALS, wholeheartedly.
If the winner wants to maximize his chance in the general, he needs to do everything he can to get those voters. It’d be the same if Bernie wins too. I hope and expect the runner up to endorse, but it’s action and not endorsement that has the best chance to get those voters, IMO.
I’d love Warren as VP (or even better, Prez), but I don’t think that would appeal to the angry Bernie voters I’m worried about. If getting them is as important as I think it is, the VP pick should be someone that they have no beef with - and IMO Abrams fits that bill. I’m not sure who else does.