# Unilateral Gaza Ceasefire: Now what happens? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 18, 2009, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unilateral-gaza-ceasefire-now-what-happens/481859 "2009-01-18T15:17:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![treis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bc79bd/32.png) [@treis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/treis)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2009, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unilateral-gaza-ceasefire-now-what-happens/481859/81 "2009-01-20T16:41:47Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > Opening the borders … which is what Hamas wanted. Negotiating a settlement to a grievance is not remotely the same as “giving them what they want”. I guess you are going to ignore that you misunderstood what he meant by yielding the point. > [@Malthus](#): > > For something “blatantly obvious”, so far no-one has come up with concrete examples that do not rely on some magical ability to kill Hamas fighters without killing just as many of the civilians they hide among as we have actually seen. It’s very difficult to explain RTFirefly’s position any clearer. For example he said: > [@RTFirefly](#): > > Or it could have identified where the missiles were coming from, and bombed just that place, instead of hitting mixed military/civilian targets all over the place. If you can’t see why that would result in fewer civilian casualties than the campaign Israel just finished, well, then there’s nothing that can be done to help you. > [@Malthus](#): > > I suggest that they have not because _there are no such methods_. Certainly “targeted bombardment”, “ground assault” and “using Mossad” aren’t - these are in fact just what Israel _has_ done - used ground forces selectively, used targeted bombardment, and used its intelligence services. If you can’t see how, for example, limiting strikes to launching sites is different from what Israel did, then, again, there’s nothing that can be done to explain it any further. > [@Malthus](#): > > Ground assault in Gaza. Using Mossad agents. What do you think? I think that describing this as “pulling a Stalingrad” is ridiculous. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2009, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unilateral-gaza-ceasefire-now-what-happens/481859/82 "2009-01-20T16:49:11Z")
Ah well, anyways, you’re right **DSeid** and instead of just apologizing and going back to pointing out how some folks are arguing, I should have just refrained from taking the bait. You have my apologies for that as well, I should’ve followed through. Anyways, to help get your thread back on track: It is doubtful that the ceasefire will hold. Within hours of its announcement, for example, five rockets fell on Sderot. But, by the same token, Israel claims to have accomplished many of its goals. Smuggling tunnels, rocket making factories and much of Hamas’ leadership, manpower and rocket launchers have been destroyed. The situation now will depend on whether Hamas decided to lick its wounds, or if it tries to get the IDF to re-engage. If it’s the former, we can probably expect a short time of relative calm while Hamas rearms and reorganizes. If it’s the latter, it’ll depend on the IDF’s reaction. I’m still trying to track down the article I read recently, but a tech-heavy piece stated that the IDF has been using drones which are programmed to detect the ‘muzzle flash’ of rocket launchers, and get ordinance on the target with minimal delay. That is, most likely, part of why it’s been so hard for Hamas/Islamic Jihad to launch rockets and then get away from them, and I’d wager, part of why the early bombing campaign was so precise. Fake Edit: here’s what I’ve dug up in the last few minutes. [New IDF radar](http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1228728130021&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull) will allow precise counter-battery fire. Yep, and IDF drones are able to [fire missiles](http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/news/2008/080303-pilotless-weapon.htm) As drones have also been used to pinpoint rocket launching sites, with their limitations becoming clear during the [war against Hezbollah](http://www.noahshachtman.com/archives/002722.html). It’s likely that if they were spotting launchers by muzzle flash and knew they needed improved sensors in 2006 that by now they’ve got them. Of course, IDF drones are top secret and we’re unlikely to get specifics any time soon. Still… a fleet of 24/7 drones coupled with advanced detection might very well mean that there’s no cause for any future invasions unless/until Hamas can sufficiently rearm. If Israel decides not to commit further troops and, instead, simply to set up drone patrols over Gaza 24/7, Hamas may find that they’re unable to draw the IDF back into the kind of war it wants them to fight. Israeli citizens may, also, be content to see that rocket launching sites are quickly destroyed and may not demand that their leadership take a harsher tack. It’s unlikely that there would be no response, however, as both Skyguard and Iron Dome have been less than fully successful, so some rockets will still get through. Which will, in turn, mean that some Israelis are effectively living in bomb shelters. Which will, in turn, create a popular groundswell for “Doing Something!” What’s interesting is that this might very well even be an in-road to a peace deal with the West Bank and Fatah. Reports, for instance, have claimed that it was Fatah itself that was [helping the IDF with targeting data.](http://jeffreygoldberg.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/12/a_fatah_friend_writes_im_suppo.php) Perhaps, in the strange system of political alliances that the region is known for, the enemy of your enemy can be your negotiating partner. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2009, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unilateral-gaza-ceasefire-now-what-happens/481859/83 "2009-01-20T17:05:00Z")
Along the same lines, from the globalsecurity cite, it seems that drones may actually be the most humane way to conduct any future counter-battery fire. > [@](#): > > Israel is probably the first country in the world to use unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, for both surveillance and to dispatch payload, said Damian Kemp, an aviation desk editor at Jane’s Defence Weekly. He said Israel was a world leader in the field and was «capable of doing everything from the very small to the very large. > > He said the drones were likely more accurate, cost-effective and safer than the use of manned F-16 fighter jets and Apache helicopters. > > «The key thing in a UAV is it does missions that are dull, dirty and dangerous,» Kemp said. «They can be up there for a long time and in areas where you don’t need to put a pilot at risk. > > Still, their payload can be as devastating as any other airstrike. > > «Our experience is that the drone missile is successful in hitting its targets, and it’s deadly,» said Dr. Mahmoud Assali, who worked in the emergency ward of a northern Gaza Strip hospital that often treated gunmen hit by Israeli drones. > [@](#): > > A militant from the southern Gaza Strip, belonging to the Islamic Jihad group, said drones were mostly used to target individuals, and not structures. He said they often hovered at much higher altitudes than manned aircraft and their missiles usually left a deep, but narrow gash where they landed, unlike other missiles, which left large, shallow holes in the ground, and often much more destruction. > [@](#): > > Last March, Israel unveiled its largest unmanned aircraft yet in a glitzy ceremony at a seaside air force base in central Israel. The Heron has a 16.6 meter (54-foot) wingspan, can fly for as long as 30 hours at a time, at a speed of 120 knots (140 mph, 225 kph) and a height of 9,000 meters (30,000 feet). > > Jane’s Kemp said that an even newer version, unveiled last June in Paris and named the Heron TP (Eitan), has a wingspan of 26 meters (85 feet), can fly for as long as 36 hours and carry a maximum payload of 1000 kilograms (2,200 pounds). And just for the purposes of comparison, that’s about eight [SDB’s](http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/12/israeli-jets-dr.html), which are weapons that are, in turn, specifically designed to minimize civilian casualties. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2009, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unilateral-gaza-ceasefire-now-what-happens/481859/84 "2009-01-20T17:19:30Z")
> [@FinnAgain](#): > > Would you care to toss away any credibility you have remaining? > > Ah, I see the answer is “Hell yes!” > More credibility you want to shed in favor of rhetorical horseshit? > > The 4th Geneva convention does not specifically authorize ‘terrorism’. > More credibility to lose? > > You seem to be powerfully ignorant here. Attacking a valid military target, especially with prior warning given, is not “terrorism”. You seem to be at the stage of your rant when you begin inventing words for your own purposes. > > More credibility to burn? > > American politicians were at Sabra and Shatilla? > No, eh? > > Funny that the more passionate you get, the less your argument even remotely resembles reality. Finn. If you cannot accept that the King David Hotel atrocity was a terrorist act then there is simply no reasoning with you. You know full well that Israel was founded on the back of terrorism. You know full well that Begin was a terrorist. You know full well that Sharon and the IDF stood to one side and let the Lebanese Christian militia massacre refugees. And you know full well that there have been massive civilian casualties in Gaza. And as a human being you should know full well that killing thousands in response to a threat so minor it has only killed 20 people in eight years is barbarism. There are plenty of other options, including negotiating in good faith with the democratically elected govt, to end that threat. Israel has shown no good faith in any negotiations. It has built colonies and walls on Palestinian land, it has continued assassination by missiles in crowded streets even in the middle of ceasefires. If it were any other country but Israel we’d be calling a spade a spade. Israel is a murdering terrorist state. The Palestinians are no better. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2009, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unilateral-gaza-ceasefire-now-what-happens/481859/85 "2009-01-20T19:14:42Z")
> [@FinnAgain](#): > > For what it’s worth, you do have my apologies. I simply can’t stand the slimy debating tactics that some folks here are using. Mirror, dude. > [@](#): > > You’re 100% correct. RTF hasn’t done his research before he’s made claims. > > Holy shit, you’re serious, aren’t you? > You expect me to do all the background reading for you in a debate? That in a discussion on the international laws of war, it’s not your job to figure out what the fuck you’re talking about, but mine to take the bait and provide you link after link _after_ you’ve decided to adopt a position you know nothing about? > > I know you’re really important and people simply must read your text, but seriously, considering learning what the fuck you’re talking about before you make claims. Eh? IOW, you’ve got nothing. Still no link, no evidence, no nothing to counter my commonsense statement that a hostile occupation is an act of war. Just noise and blather. > [@](#): > > Are you for real? Certainly not. I’m just electrons on a message board. > [@](#): > > I may note that you’re not exactly being accurate. > Or I could note that your evasions are so full of shit, brazenly delivered, that it’s unbelievable. Electrons on a message board that like pie. > [@](#): > > And when faced with the fact that ground invasions always messy, let your bias spew forth and declared that since the IDF wasn’t magic and had to actually fight through the streets instead of pinpointing known Hamas sites, that they were “monsters and moral lepers”. OK, when’s the last ground invasion that’s killed 400 children in less than three weeks? > [@](#): > > Please look at the multiple times I pointed out where you did just that. Hint, it has to do with ‘open borders’. No, actually not. Mincemeat pie would be my favorite. > [@](#): > > Wait, let me guess… yet another thread about Hamas, and you still have no fucking clue what Hamas stands for, believes in, or what their charter says, do you? Let’s say that there’s an organization called HateScan that believes in the annihilation of every Scandinavian person from the globe. And they succeed in killing a few Scandinavians before they’re all caught and sentenced to life without parole. They didn’t commit genocide, now did they? > [@](#): > > And let me guess, it’s my fault for not spoonfeeding you these facts _after_ you decided to adopt a position? Pineapple pie is also pretty good. > [@](#): > > This is probably the most retarded argument I’ve seen you make. And that’s saying a whole hell of a lot. I love you too. 🙂 > [@](#): > > To begin with, the argument that because more people on one side or another are killed, it’s genocide? That’s a stupid argument. You also know full well that wasn’t what I was arguing. You’re right that it’s stupid, but it was the best I could make out of your screed. Genocide involves actual killing of actual people of a particular background. > [@](#): > > Funny, then, that you won’t admit your own positions Good Lord, are you still on about that? > [@](#): > > Anyways, moving along to the other idiocy contained in that argument, the fact of Hamas being genocidal is due to their own _incitement to genocide_, which is well documented. So because they wrote something nasty, it makes their murders of Israelis genocidal, but since Israel didn’t write something nasty, it makes their much larger number of murders of Palestinians non-genocidal? So the key is, bomb the shit out of 'em, but don’t leave a paper trail. > [@](#): > > So your goal isn’t fighting your ignorance, or an honest debate, or an analysis of the facts since you refuse to even learn the facts before you make your claims. What, then, is your goal? > Do I really need to ask? > > Yes, the Israelis would certainly be happy when Hamas started importing all the weaponry it could. > I take it you’re going to feign ignorance, yet again, at where you’ve said that Hamas should have open borders again? Impervious to correction. I think lemon meringue pie is called for. > [@](#): > > Is it hard to walk backwards quite so quickly? > So Hamas would have open borders, except they’d be restricted. And they’d be open, except Israel could monitor them. > Your evasion is beneath even the quality of your argument so far. It must be incredibly hard for you to understand what ‘negotiations’ are. Maybe you’d understand pie. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2009, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unilateral-gaza-ceasefire-now-what-happens/481859/86 "2009-01-20T19:25:30Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > Whereas “yeilding the point” = "give them what they want. Let’s roll tape: > [@RTFirefly](#): > > Hamas was firing rockets at Israel, an act of war, which of course was provoked by Israel’s blockade of Gaza, an act of war. Hamas did it in such a way that nobody was killed, but it made the **point**. > > Israel could have yielded the **point** Emphasis added to emphasize parallelism. Get the point? ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2009, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unilateral-gaza-ceasefire-now-what-happens/481859/87 "2009-01-20T19:45:22Z")
> [@tagos](#): > > Finn. If you cannot accept that the King David Hotel atrocity was a terrorist act then there is simply no reasoning with you. The King David Hotel was the headquarters of the Mandatory government, and after planing the bombs, the Irgun called the hotel switchboard to tell them bombs had been planted and that hotel guests should be evacuated. They also called the French embassy and the Palestine Post with warnings. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2009, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unilateral-gaza-ceasefire-now-what-happens/481859/88 "2009-01-20T20:10:34Z")
Trying again to get this back on its intended tracks … [The IDF is finishing up its withdrawal.](http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1056946.html) And what did it accomplish? > [@](#): > > The IDF is expected today to begin discharging many of the reservists drafted two weeks ago under emergency orders. > > Troops began significantly reducing their presence in the Gaza Strip as early as Saturday night, immediately after Israel declared a unilateral cease-fire which put and end to Operation Cast Lead. The troops took key positions around the Strip, poised to reenter when ordered. … > > … IDF sources said that the peace was maintained despite alleged orders by Hamas leadership in Damascus for their operatives in Gaza to carry out attacks against IDF forces. Israeli officers said that the militants chose to ignore the order. > > The IDF General Staff, according to army sources, views the cease-fire and the aftermath of the 22-day operation as creating an opportunity for setting up a more effective system to prevent Hamas from smuggling arms into the Strip. This is because Egypt is reportedly showing signs - for the first time - of interest in halting smuggling, which it now views as a strategic threat. > > According to intelligence reports, Iran closely monitored the situation in Gaza, and was concerned that Israel could topple Hamas’ regime there. Iran is now interested, according to the intelligence reports, in helping Hamas rebuild its arsenal as soon as possible. > > Israeli intelligence estimates indicate that Hamas employed a system of 250 tunnels running across the border which separates the Palestinian side of Rafah from the Egyptian side of town. Some 80 percent of these tunnels were collapsed or damaged in Israel Air Force raids, according to estimates. > > Approximately 500 Hamas militants were killed in the operation, according to Israeli estimates and hundreds more were wounded. Additionally, the IDF killed hundreds of militants belonging to various armed factions and militias… > > …In total, Hamas fired 600 rockets during the operation out of an estimated arsenal of 2,000 to 3,000 rockets with various ranges. Israeli army officials believe the IDF destroyed about 1,200 rockets in the operation. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2009, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unilateral-gaza-ceasefire-now-what-happens/481859/89 "2009-01-20T20:17:08Z")
The problem is, it’s hard to separate the cease-fire from the invasion itself. We knew Israel wasn’t going to permanently re-occupy the Strip, so it had to pull out sometime. I can’t really look at the effects of Cast Lead in pieces; only _in toto_ makes sense. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2009, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unilateral-gaza-ceasefire-now-what-happens/481859/90 "2009-01-20T20:30:01Z")
RTF: sorry, not going to take the bait. But I will happily educate you on how adjectives in the English language work. As a quick hint ponder why “suicidal” doesn’t mean “already committed suicide” and “homicidal” doesn’t have to mean “already committed homicide”. Based on that pattern, try to recognize whether or not “genocidal” can be used to describe a group committed to genocide but which hasn’t achieved their goal. If you’re still confused, ponder whether or not the phrase “genocidal ambitions” has semantic value and is grammatically correct. If you manage to understand that, try to understand why having a desire to exterminate an ethnic group might be described as “genocidal”, if, for instance, the Final Solution was a genocidal plan even before it was put into effect, or if it was non-genocidal at that point. Or talk about pie. Same difference. Whether, when you come back, you bring pie or not? I’m still done feeding your attempts to hijack this debate with your typical debating tactics. Hope your war against Eurasia goes well. Adios. Anyways… **DSeid** : There are, of course, obvious political dimensions to the ceasefire itself. To some, the situation will itself be seen as an [indication of weakness](http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/18/content_10678718.htm). Of course, that’s a neat double bind whereby if the IDF continued the campaign they were inhuman monsters, and if they withdrew they were cowards and beaten. Narratives of that sort, of course, will be common amongst certain fellow travelers. How effective Hamas’ media network will be, of course, is [another matter](http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/18/content_10678718.htm). We can assume, as well that as long as Israel doesn’t use pixy dust bombs and ninjas, there will always be some who demonize its self defense and/or who claim that as long as Hamas uses human shields Israel cannot retaliate and/or who claim that rockets falling on civilian neighborhoods does not rise to the level of something that should be dealt with by war if there aren’t pixy dust bombs available. I think we can safely assume that the usual suspects will be a fairly consistent variable, and their actual impact, as always, will be fairly minimal. We might expect some more calls for academic boycotts or divestment or what have you, but with the importance of Israel’s tech sector to the global economy, I don’t think we’ll see anything come out of those types of tactics. That Fatah seems to have warmed considerably to Israel due to this offensive might actually mean that not only does Hamas no longer control the narrative, but Hamas’ citizens in Gaza will be able to see the potential fruits of compromise and negotiation played out in the West Bank. Time will tell, but the situation certainly is ripe. The brutality of Hamas’ takeover of Gaza seems to have left a lot of Fatah with some serious grudges… and we’ve all seen how grudges play out in that part of the world. If anything, theh main challenge in the future will be figuring out how to mate a sovereign West Bank with the theocratic thugocracy in Gaza. The next time we see an invasion like this, it may very involve Fatah, although obviously there are ideological as well as practical concerns for how such conflict would actually play out. Meanwhile, the truce itself seems to [be holding, sorta, for now at least.](http://www.news24.com/News24/World/News/0,,2-10-1462_2455896,00.html) I’d wager that if it holds long enough for the IDF to redeploy its forces, it’ll take something fairly major to get them to roll back in with any significant force. I really would be surprised if any future skirmishing isn’t carried out with drones. For now, Maj. Gen. Amir Eshel said that the operation hadn’t ended but that “It has just transitioned to a new phase, to hold fire. To give a chance to a cease-fire to take over and end this operation.” Once the momentum has gone down, it seems unlikely that it would start back up without something major. Interestingly enough, the war against Hamas had (IIRC) something like a 90% approval rating with many Israelis strongly supporting it. This is in stark contrast to the war against Hezbollah which had markedly diminished levels of support. If nothing else, this indicates that there is definitely the political will to deal with Hamas, and Israeli politicians are unlikely to forget that fact. It’s also worth noting that even the UN seems to be moderating its stance a bit, as a [more vitriolic resolution was actually recently rejected in favor of a more moderate one.](http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUKTRE50G0KO20090117) It’s probably a bit too soon to expect true change on the part of many UN agencies and member states, but this is at least an interesting first step. The UN might (might) even be willing to take real notice of Hamas’ actions if Hamas starts launching barrages again. Further, regional tensions will play out interestingly over the next few months. Egypt, which controls its own border with Gaza and maintains its own blockade, has been [talking about](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28651944/) “opening its borders and choking off the flow of weapons into Gaza across Egypt’s border and at sea — perhaps with an international naval force”. Although it must be noted that the meetings “failed to deliver specifics on international monitors to stop weapons from reaching Gaza’s Hamas rulers. Israel wants monitors, but Egypt has refused to have them on its side of the border.” As already belabored, open borders mean that Iran can import as much weaponry as it feels like sending. While a policed maritime border would ensure that something like the Karine A would most likely not get through, an open Egyptian-Gazan border would allow Hamas to rearm much more quickly. How any international coalition handles the peace will determine how likely we are to have another war. If, for example, UN troops could be placed at the Gazan side of the Egyptian border and would operate with more efficiency than UNFIL, then the world actually have a chance of delaying Hamas’ reemergence long enough for Israel to work something out with Fatah. On preview: damnit! Well… I wrote out the post and it’s going to stand. 🆒 I will add though that if the claims are accurate and Hamas soldiers in Gaza actually disobeyed orders to attack… wow. Either they’re scared or we can expect to see a significant change in leadership within the next little bit. It will also be very interesting to see how the casualties break down as we learn more. I’m still surprised by the implicit assumptions some people make. Hamas does employ both [women](http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/18/world/middleeast/18gaza.html) and, in some cases, [children as human shields](http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/129426). or even [soldiers and suicide bombers.](http://www.child-soldiers.org/childsoldiers/CSC_AG_Forum_case_study_June_2006_Occ_Pal_Territories_Hamas.pdf) We may never know the exact totals of the civilians vs the militants who were killed, but as always, some will be tempted to play morality-via-etch-a-sketch. I wonder if an in depth investigation will be launched at some poitn. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2009, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unilateral-gaza-ceasefire-now-what-happens/481859/91 "2009-01-20T20:35:40Z")
> [@Captain\_Amazing](#): > > The King David Hotel was the headquarters of the Mandatory government Not just the headquarters for the government, but British military command. That would have made it a clear and valid target of a military attack. Just wanted to clear that up for anybody reading along who may be confused by some less than accurate claims. Fighting ignorance and all. ---
**Author:** ![treis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bc79bd/32.png) [@treis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/treis)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2009, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unilateral-gaza-ceasefire-now-what-happens/481859/92 "2009-01-20T20:59:28Z")
> [@Captain\_Amazing](#): > > The King David Hotel was the headquarters of the Mandatory government, and after planing the bombs, the Irgun called the hotel switchboard to tell them bombs had been planted and that hotel guests should be evacuated. They also called the French embassy and the Palestine Post with warnings. None of these facts make the attack anything other than terrorism. Aside from the warning, what is the difference between the King David attack and the OKC bombings? ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2009, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unilateral-gaza-ceasefire-now-what-happens/481859/93 "2009-01-20T21:14:45Z")
> [@treis](#): > > None of these facts make the attack anything other than terrorism. Aside from the warning, what is the difference between the King David attack and the OKC bombings? The King David attack was an attack by an organized resistance movement against a millitary target, and the bombers made (ultimately unsuccessful) attempts to minimize civilian casualties. The OTC bombing was an attack by an individual against a non-millitary target, and the bomber made attempts to maximize civilian casualties. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2009, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unilateral-gaza-ceasefire-now-what-happens/481859/94 "2009-01-21T19:31:43Z")
> [@FinnAgain](#): > > While I’m at it, it should also be noted that it’s a preliminary ban which the Central Elections Committee itself admits will most likely be overturned and which the Attorney-General’s office has already stated doesn’t have enough evidence to stand. … The bans will, in fact, most likely be overturned. [You got it in one.](http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1057497.html) > [@](#): > > Israel’s Supreme court overruled on Wednesday a parliamentary panel which had decided to bar Israeli Arab parties from running in next month’s parliamentary election. > > The court issued its decision in response to an appeal filed by Arab politicians against the ban. A spokesman for the Courts Administration said judges overturned the ban in an unanimous vote Wednesday. Yup. A system with protections that work when tested. [Meanwhile this](http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1057390.html) promised: > [@](#): > > Defense establishment officials said that Israel would respond to any renewed attacks on its territory with force even harsher than it had exhibited during the three-week offensive on Hamas. > > “Hamas militants face a simple equation,” Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chairman Tzachi Hanegbi told Army Radio. “If the [rocket] fire resumes, we will respond with force so strong and overpowering, they will miss the day the Israel Air Force’s offensive began.” > > The IDF on Wednesday said it had withdrawn all of its soldiers from Gaza Promising is one thing though, delivering more than bluster is another. I think you are right **Finn**. Israel will be hard pressed to redeploy in the face of new attacks if they occur. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2009, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unilateral-gaza-ceasefire-now-what-happens/481859/95 "2009-01-21T20:13:59Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > A system with protections that work when tested. It seems to have been a case of political gamesmanship. They were aware that the chances of the ban sticking were between slim and none, but they wanted to send a message to one political party that’s still in touch with someone most likely guilty of high treason, and another that’s made terrifically irresponsible statements, especially during wartime. As i stated above I don’t approve of the attempted ban, but in context it’s a bit clearer why they’d send a message of that sort. > [@DSeid](#): > > Israel will be hard pressed to redeploy in the face of new attacks if they occur. My guess is that the reaction we saw this time was largely due to this being an ongoing problem where, even during the ceasefire itself, Hamas made perfectly clear that it wouldn’t lift a finger to stop other groups from launching rockets from territory it policed. The pressure built up and was released (no pun intended), explosively. I could see calls for renewed targeted strikes, but sending the troops right back in after their mission was supposedly accomplished? I’m not sure that there’s the political will to accomplish that. It’d have to be something massive and/or significant, like an Hamas suicide bombing at a wedding or something of the sort. At least, as I understand the situation. I haven’t seen any polls that would lead me to believe otherwise, at least, but I’m always willing to retract and modify my position if it turns out that better evidence is available. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2009, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unilateral-gaza-ceasefire-now-what-happens/481859/96 "2009-01-21T20:25:36Z")
And [this overall very critical of Israel’s actions assessment](http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1057368.html) is also pertinent to speculations about what happens next. > [@](#): > > Paradoxically, a strong Israel, unified and burning with a sense of justice, an Israel that circled above the bodies of its defeated rivals with the hardheartedness of a victor, is an Israel that is far more ready for peace. Perhaps more than ever. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2009, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unilateral-gaza-ceasefire-now-what-happens/481859/97 "2009-01-21T21:22:27Z")
Yep, I still think that Fatah will be the group to watch as the dust settles. [ > [@](#): > > Hamas also said that it would not allow the PA to play any role in the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. It said that the money should be channeled directly to the victims and not to Abbas’s aides in Ramallah. > > Fatah strongly denied the allegations and claimed that Hamas militiamen have been stealing the aid since the beginning of Israel’s military operation. > > Fatah also warned donors against dealing with Hamas directly. > > A Fatah official said that on Monday night alone, Hamas gunmen intercepted 12 trucks loaded with humanitarian aid that had been donated by the Jordanian government to the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. > > He said that the trucks were on their way to the headquarters of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) when the gunmen belonging to the movement’s armed wing, Izaddin al-Kassam, stopped them and confiscated their contents. > > The Jordanian authorities confirmed on Tuesday that Hamas gunmen had seized the trucks shortly after they entered the Gaza Strip through the Kerem Shalom border crossing. > > Last week Fatah activists and eyewitnesses in the Gaza Strip claimed that Hamas had confiscated fuel and food that was en route to hospitals and schools housing thousands of Palestinian families. > > Meanwhile, the PA is studying a proposal to import thousands of caravans that would serve as temporary homes for Palestinian families whose houses were destroyed or damaged during the war. ]([The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World](http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1232292920527&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull)) From abut a week ago: [ > [@](#): > > As Israel’s battering campaign in Hamas-run Gaza continues, pushing the Palestinian death toll toward 1,000, the Fatah-controlled West Bank has been largely quiescent. > > Fatah is keeping a lid on protests, not letting West Bankers draw it into Israel’s war on Hamas. Senior voices in the secular party that runs the Palestinian Authority ¶ see restraint as key to its quest for statehood. Getting entangled in Gaza, they say, would only embolden Hamas. > > […] > > Fatah appears to be looking at lessons from the past in how it chooses to deal with the Gaza crisis. Twenty-one years ago, an Israeli military jeep accidentally crashed into a crowd in occupied Gaza, killing four Palestinians. Rage and rioting spread to the West Bank and an intifada was born. > > While Hamas leaders have called for a third intifada, those calls have not led to an uprising here. The PA has set strict guidelines about where protests are permitted. No rallies are allowed in proximity to Israeli military posts or settlements, virtually eliminating opportunities for angry activists to find themselves “a stone’s throw” away from Israeli soldiers. > > But Moheeb Awwad, a Fatah official, says many in the young ranks of his movement are losing patience. "At the least, they will leave Fatah and start their own splinter organization. This segment has to find a venue through which it can vent. > > “There is social and popular support for our brothers in Gaza,” Mr. Awwad says. “But the internal Palestinian conflict has cast its shadow on the response of people in the West Bank, which is lukewarm.” > > […] > Fatah, which reached a peace deal with Israel in 1993, is perched to play an important role in Gaza. A proposal being discussed in Egypt calls for a temporary cease-fire, followed by a longer-term truce and the opening of Gaza’s border crossings with the presence of PA security forces loyal to Abbas. > > […] > Besides preventing the conflict from engulfing the West Bank, which has been experiencing a relative upswing in stability in the past year, Rajoub acknowledges a blunt truth: He doesn’t want to give Hamas a chance to start calling the shots. > > “Our approach is fully understood by the Palestinian public,” he says. “If we had taken a laissez faire attitude, people would be getting killed in the West Bank every day. What’s going on in Gaza is enough.” ]([Fatah, Hamas split widens amid Gaza war - CSMonitor.com](http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0115/p01s03-wome.html)) Or from a few months ago: [ > [@](#): > > Opposition to Hamas in the Strip, and concomitantly renewed support for Fatah, are on the rise, and the recent violence is expected to reduce Hamas’ status further on the Palestinian street, as people in Gaza see Hamas using its terror tactics against its own people. > […] > > A recent opinion poll conducted by the Palestinian research institute Jerusalem Media and Communication Center revealed that support for Fatah had risen from 30.6 percent in the West Bank and Gaza in September 2006, to 40 percent now, while support for Hamas declined from 29.7 percent to 19.7 percent in the same time period. > > […] > > Senior PA officials have warned Israel against moves toward a unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank. Such a withdrawal, they say will lead to more West Bank cities falling to Hamas, whose people are more inspired and organized than Fatah. ]([http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/923553.html](http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/923553.html)) If Fatah can mange to be the conduit through which aid flows into Gaza, and they can keep the West Bank quiet so as to achieve statehood… Well, maybe living in interesting times isn’t always bad. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2009, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unilateral-gaza-ceasefire-now-what-happens/481859/98 "2009-01-22T01:32:17Z")
> [@FinnAgain](#): > > Yep, I still think that Fatah will be the group to watch as the dust settles. > > [ > > From abut a week ago: > > [url=[Fatah, Hamas split widens amid Gaza war - CSMonitor.com](http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0115/p01s03-wome.html)]]([The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World](http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1232292920527&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull)) > > Or from a few months ago: > > [url=[http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/923553.html](http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/923553.html)] > > If Fatah can mange to be the conduit through which aid flows into Gaza, and they can keep the West Bank quiet so as to achieve statehood… > Well, maybe living in interesting times isn’t always bad. I’ve got a weird idea: maybe someone ought to find out who the Palestinians prefer. Like have an election or something. If they prefer Fatah, then Fatah will have legitimacy, rather than just being the Western-desired answer to that age-old question, “Is there someone else up there we could talk to?” It’s actually a good opportunity for them. As I understand it, Hamas lost a lot of respect among Gazans because when the Israeli ground troops invaded, Hamas bravely turned and fled (simply disappeared into the woodwork, really, or so it is alleged), and hundreds of children got killed instead. (Yeah, I know: I keep making a big deal about that, for some reason. Silly me.) So even if support for Fatah isn’t running that high, Hamas isn’t in much of a position to capitalize. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2009, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unilateral-gaza-ceasefire-now-what-happens/481859/99 "2009-01-22T01:54:19Z")
My guess: 1. Hamas gets more rockets from Iran 2. Hamas resumes firing rockets into Israel 3. Israel retaliates 4. repeat ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2009, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unilateral-gaza-ceasefire-now-what-happens/481859/100 "2009-01-22T03:04:46Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > My guess: > > 1. Hamas gets more rockets from Iran > 2. Hamas resumes firing rockets into Israel > 3. Israel retaliates > 4. repeat Could certainly be. Although, by the same token, it might also be: 3b) Israel retaliates using advanced sensors, targeting and drones which are already in the air to take out rocket launching sites asap, leading to a reduction in actual rockets launched as they become actual suicide operations most of the time. Without a major Hamas escalation, Israelis are unlikely to press for boots on the ground and may be moderately content with neutralizing Hamas rocket launching positions, safe in the knowledge that if they wanted to, they could invade Gaza again and smash Hamas. 1. This goes on for a while, as Hamas isn’t about to change its stripes any time soon and they’re quite adept at crushing dissent, and kneecaps, and skulls… 2. Fatah maintains calm in the West Bank and Israelis, no longer feeling quite so _terrorized_ (at least according to **DSeid** ’s cite) are willing to go back to the Bridging Proposal route, confident that if Fatah goes the military route, they can at least do something about it. 3. Fatah and Israel sign accords, actually enforce them, and we see a fuly autonomous and sovereign PA on the West Bank within, say, five to ten years. (Assuming for safeguards and a gradual change in who holds power). 7 The citizens of Hamas’ thugocracy notice that they have Sharia law enforced via cudgel, economic stagnation, political and geographic isolation, and the West Bank is flourishing. Then some Hamas throats get cut. It’ll be interesting to see how things play out. I do believe that Fatah deserves careful watching, especially if they can secure the backing of the (relatively) moderate Arab governments in the region and can be seen as the force delivering aid to Gaza. Especially if it becomes public knowledge that Hamas is stealing aid and stopping it from going to the people who it’s designed for. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unilateral-gaza-ceasefire-now-what-happens/481859.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unilateral-gaza-ceasefire-now-what-happens/481859.md?page=6)